Publisher: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

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Türkiye and the Syrian crisis

Turcja wobec kryzysu syryjskiego

Author(s): Szymon Ananicz / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: war ins Syria; Turkey's role in Middle East;

The escalation of tensions on the Turkish-Syrian border in early October confirms that it is ongoing. For more than a year and a half, the civil war in Syria is one of the main challenges for Turkey foreign and security policy. Ambitions to play a key role in the Middle East, in particular, a number of threats to Turkey related to the escalation of the conflict prompt Ankara to actively engage in bringing the crisis to an end under secure conditions, i.e.: Turkey's security and as much influence as possible on the situation in Syria and the region. For the main purposes Ankara now has to bring about the overthrow of the regime of President Bashar Assad and peace transformation in Syria while maintaining security. For the implementation of these goals, Türkiye has taken a number of unilateral and international actions. Their results were limited so far. Maintaining Damascus' military advantage over the opposition and none strong enough pressure on the Assad regime from the international community does not offer prospects for a quick end to the conflict on terms that suit Ankara's interests. At the same time, the negative effects of the crisis on Turkey are intensifying. In this situation, of particular importance has an alliance for Turkey to increase security and achieve Syrian policy goals with the West, mainly within NATO, as well as with the United States and EU countries. Cooperation within NATO and with individual Western countries in the face of the crisis is for Ankara as a test of the usefulness of the alliance with the West. This rating will affect the influence of the West on Turkey in its Middle East policy.

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The Autumn of the (Georgian) Patriarch. The role of the Orthodox Church in Georgia and in Georgian politics

The Autumn of the (Georgian) Patriarch. The role of the Orthodox Church in Georgia and in Georgian politics

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Orthodox Church in Georgia; Georgian politics and religion; Patriarch; Mikheil Saakashvili;

Analyses dedicated to Georgia’s domestic situation usually omit the religious aspect and the relation between the state and the country’s predominant religious organisation, i.e. the autocephalous Georgian Orthodox Church (GOC). The relatively few papers focused on this particular issue are exceptions. Meanwhile, the fact that Georgians as a nation are very devout (religion is an element of their national identity) and that Catholicos-Patriarch Ilia II is an indisputable authority has a direct impact on the choices they make and on the policy pursued by the state. It can be said that one important reason behind the electoral success of Georgian Dream in 2012 was the support offered, albeit informally, by hierarchs of the GOC to the party’s leader Bidzina Ivanishvili. Easter celebrations attended by large numbers of believers on 19 April 2020 were an open display of the GOC’s power. The celebrations took place despite the restrictions due to a state of emergency declared nationwide in connection with the epidemic. Moreover, the GOC is on the eve of a succession – Ilia II who has been patriarch for more than 42 years, recently turned 87. This is causing internal tension in the Church which in turn acts as a catalyst for accelerating secularization.

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A pillar of the system? The political phenomenon of Arsen Avakov

A pillar of the system? The political phenomenon of Arsen Avakov

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański,Piotr Żochowski,Sławomir Matuszak,Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arsen Avakov; member of Volodymyr Hroysman’s cabinet; Ukrainian political scene; transition from business to politics;

The change of government in Ukraine in 2019 has boosted the political position of Arsen Avakov, the longest-serving interior minister in the history of independent Ukraine (he has been in five consecutive governments since February 2014). He was the only member of Volodymyr Hroysman’s cabinet to remain in office following Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s presidential victory. Zelenskiy came to power demanding that the political class should be renewed and the ‘old politicians’ removed, among other things. According to some Ukrainian politicians and media outlets, Avakov is an essential and highly influential politician, a guarantor of internal stability and a possible candidate for prime minister. Over the last six years, the interior minister has built up a strong position for himself in the internal security sector (for example, he supervises the National Police and the National Guard) and has successfully neutralised attempts by other politicians to limit his power. Moreover, any talk of his dismissal is frequently viewed as a threat to the country’s stability. Avakov has a big media presence and positions himself as an experienced official, a statesman and a guardian of justice and order above the divisions that run along party lines. While maintaining control of the Interior Ministry agencies, he has become politically independent and has built up an exceptionally strong position for himself.

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Towards greater resilience: NATO and the EU on hybrid threats

Towards greater resilience: NATO and the EU on hybrid threats

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; EU; hybrid threats; cyber defence; cybersecurity;

In recent years, NATO and the EU have taken greater responsibility for countering hybrid threats. This group of threats covers a wide range of hostile methods used by states and non-state actors. It includes both military and non-military activities, for instance special forces operations and irregular warfare, and also disinformation and cyberattacks. NATO and the EU are involved in facilitating international cooperation on countering hybrid threats and protecting their own structures and institutions against them. In this way, both organisations reinforce the efforts at the national level, since fighting hybrid threats is primarily a task of the member states. Nevertheless, NATO’s and the EU’s actions in this respect are constrained by insufficient financing, and by the member states’ unwillingness to enhance the sharing of intelligence and sensitive information related to, for example, critical infrastructure protection or cybersecurity. The recent spike in anti-Western COVID-19 disinformation campaigns clearly shows that both NATO and the EU could do more to counter hybrid threats.

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Politics prevails – Israel’s trade relations with the European Union

Politics prevails – Israel’s trade relations with the European Union

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; trade relations; EU; Israel and Palestine conflict; Political obstacles;

The European Union’s trade relations with Israel are asymmetrical, but the overall volume of their trade in goods and services has been growing rapidly. The EU is Israel’s top partner in this field, while Israel ranks outside the top 30 of the EU’s biggest partners; the EU has a positive trade balance with this country. This state of affairs has turned trade into a potential political instrument, but its assertive use by the EU with respect to the Palestinian issue has failed to bring about any change in Israel’s policy towards the occupied territories. Instead, Israel’s resistance to the EU’s policy on this issue has led to a freeze in the institutional development of trade relations, especially in the services and investment sectors. The EU and especially Israel could benefit from a further liberalisation in bilateral relations and its extension to their partners in the region, but political factors are hampering this process. Therefore, a breakthrough in the form of launching negotiations on an agreement to create a deep and comprehensive free trade area appears unlikely in the foreseeable future.

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Towards a dependence with no alternative: Russia’s increased role in the Belarusian economy

Towards a dependence with no alternative: Russia’s increased role in the Belarusian economy

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarusian economy; Belarusian foreign trade; Belarusian-Russian trade;

Macroeconomic data for the first six months of 2023 confirm Belarus’s steadily increasing dependence on Russia. In the second year of the war, Minsk is paying a high price for its complicity in Russia’s aggression, the regime’s acts of repression targeting its opponents, and its confrontational policy towards the West. This has involved Belarus losing a major portion of its markets in the EU and Ukraine. As a consequence, Belarus’s trade in commodities with the Russian Federation already accounts for around 70% of its total trade; considering that the transport of Belarusian goods (mainly fuels and potash fertilisers) is dependent on transit through Russian ports and railways, Russia’s share in Belarusian exports now exceeds 90%.

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Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions

Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Oil sector; Western sanctions; Oil production; Russian exports of oil and petroleum;

More than six months after the European Union imposed sanctions on Russian exports of oil and petroleum products, Russia’s oil sector has adapted to the new reality. Having found new markets, the industry has managed to cut crude production by only 5% while avoiding a reduction in oil processing. Moreover, sales of oil and petroleum products have increased. However, the fact that drastic production cuts have been avoided represents only a partial success. Firstly, the current structure of Russian exports of oil and petroleum products is marked by instability and a heavy dependence on sales to two customers, India and China, which account for up to about 80% of Russia’s total sales. Secondly, following the EU and G7 countries’ introduction of a price cap on Russian oil, some exports have been discounted while the transport of crude has generated additional costs as a result of the sanctions. This allows Russia to sell more oil, but it also reduces its budget revenues. Thirdly, the Russian government has pushed through reforms to the taxation of this sector, but these have failed to increase budget revenues, and have also spurred further capital outflows from Russia and weakened incentives to investment. By choosing not to slash crude production, the government has seemingly given priority to keeping its level stable at the expense of budget revenues. Therefore, the reduction of these revenues shows that the West has achieved the objectives of its sanctions, while also avoiding disruptions to supplies on global oil markets. However this situation may change in the second half of 2023, when an anticipated global oil deficit and a subsequent increase in the price of oil are set to boost Russian revenues from sales of crude and fuels.

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The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership

The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian-Indian strategic partnership; Russian-Ukrainian war; Military-technical cooperation;

Less than a decade ago, both Russian and Indian analysts would have described the relations between Moscow and New Delhi as problem-free from a political perspective. No other power was as convenient a partner for Russia as India. The first cracks in the relationship between the two countries began to emerge in the mid-2010s as a result of China’s growing power (India is in conflict with China) and its increasingly assertive foreign policy. Other factors included the development of Russian-Chinese cooperation and the ongoing rapprochement between India and the US. At first glance, it may seem that the full-scale war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has served to further strengthen the relationship between Moscow and New Delhi. However, contrary to official rhetoric, the foundations of the Russian-Indian ‘specially privileged strategic partnership’ have been eroding, due to several factors, and this erosion is likely to continue.

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How to postpone a demographic crisis. Estonia and the lifeline of immigration

How to postpone a demographic crisis. Estonia and the lifeline of immigration

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Demographic crisis; Estonia; immigration; migration destinations; Estonia’s population growth;

Estonia is the only one of the three Baltic states to have recorded stable population growth in recent years. The main reason for this has been the increasingly positive rates of immigration and re-remigration, which have enabled Estonia to compensate for its negative birth rate. Despite Tallinn’s cautious migration policy, the continuation of these trends will postpone a future demographic crisis, and also enable the state and society to better prepare for population-related challenges in the future.

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Controlled chaos: Russia’s Africa policy

Controlled chaos: Russia’s Africa policy

Author(s): Miłosz Bartosiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia's impact in Africa; Russia’s economic weakness in Africa; Russia’s informal military presence;

The Russian Federation, despite its limited abilities, has significantly strengthened its influence in Africa over recent years through the skillful use of its economic tools and ‘controlled chaos’ –a set of aggressive actions designed to stoke existing conflicts with the aim of managing them later on. This policy has helped to destabilize the continent and exacerbate its tendencies towards authoritarian rule. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has further aggravated Africa’s predicament by jeopardising its food security. Africa’s disillusionment with Russia is likely to increase in the near future for this reason. Russia’s limited offer for Africa, the uneven benefits of their mutual cooperation, the Kremlin’s paternalistic attitude towards its partners and the negative consequences of its activity for regional security will all help to erode its appeal. As a result, African countries will grow more assertive towards Russia and its options will narrow, which will make it more difficult for the Kremlin to expand and maintain its influence on the continent.

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No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh issue; Azerbaijan; Armenia; Lachin corridor;

In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.

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China’s pressure on the Philippines: the risk of an escalating conflict

China’s pressure on the Philippines: the risk of an escalating conflict

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Philippines

Despite its formal defence alliance with the United States, the Philippines has been grappling with China’s increasing pressure in the South China Sea. The growing number of maritime incidents risks escalating local tensions into a full-scale confrontation between China and the US. China’s claims exceed merely establishing its own exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the disputed area; it seeks to assert a form of sovereignty akin to that of territorial waters, which are regarded as integral to a nation’s territory. Thus, the South China Sea issue extends beyond a straightforward dispute over the delimitation of the EEZ and challenges fundamental norms of international relations.

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The architects of ‘America First’ and the potential consequences of a Trump victory for European security

The architects of ‘America First’ and the potential consequences of a Trump victory for European security

Author(s): Andrzej Kohut / Language(s): English

Keywords: Trump; US presidential election

The prospect of Donald Trump’s potential victory in the US presidential election raises questions regarding the consequences of his possible presidency for European security. During the election campaign, he repeatedly announced his intention to swiftly bring an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war and questioned the extent of US involvement in NATO. In a potential second term, his foreign and security policy may be more heavily influenced by think tanks, non-profit organisations, and conservative groups that have emerged in recent years. These groups bring together former Trump administration staffers and attract significant funding from key Republican Party donors.

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A Journey into a glorious past: three terms of Georgian Dream

A Journey into a glorious past: three terms of Georgian Dream

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgian Dream; Georgia

The 12 years of Georgian Dream (GD) rule have been marked by a series of successes in terms of political effectiveness and tangible achievements. The party has won parliamentary and local elections three times, and candidates backed by Georgian Dream have twice secured the presidency. Polls predict that in the forthcoming parliamentary elections on 26 October, Georgian Dream will once again secure the most votes. Under the governance of this party, Georgia signed an association agreement with the European Union, Georgian citizens were granted visa-free travel to the Schengen Area, and in December 2023, the country obtained EU candidate status.

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Universal, selective, and lottery-based: conscription in the Nordic and Baltic states

Universal, selective, and lottery-based: conscription in the Nordic and Baltic states

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nordic region; Baltic region; NATO

The Nordic and Baltic region is currently experiencing a significant expansion of conscription and reserve forces. In addition to accelerated military modernisation and the reinforcement of NATO’s north-eastern flank, enhancing mobilisation capacity has emerged as a key element in bolstering the defence capabilities of Nordic and Baltic states in response to an aggressive Russia.

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Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working

Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; financial sanctions

Since December 2023, the US administration has been increasing its pressure on Russia’s financial sector and its foreign partners. This has made it progressively more difficult for the Russian Federation to pay for imported goods and services. Reports from Russian media and businesses also indicate that several Chinese banks have ceased their cooperation with Russia due to concerns over US secondary sanctions. Nonetheless, these challenges have not yet led to any significant alterations to Russia’s foreign trade. According to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), in the first eight months of 2024, the value of imports fell by approximately 8% year-on-year, while exports declined by more than 1%. This relatively modest reduction suggests that Russian entities, in collaboration with their foreign partners, particularly those in the Global South, continue to find ways to circumvent the sanctions. However, the costs of importing goods are increasing and delivery times are lengthening. Consequently, inflation continues to rise, further exacerbating Russia’s economic woes.

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The end of prosperity: The state of Belarusian refineries

The end of prosperity: The state of Belarusian refineries

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarusian refineries

The sanctions imposed by the West after 2020, along with the involvement of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime in the invasion of Ukraine, have severely impacted Belarus’spetrochemical sector. The EU’s embargo on the import of petroleum products, enforced since June 2021, has effectively cut off Belarusian exporters from profitable Western markets. Furthermore, sales to Ukraine, one of the country’s key markets, have also been halted due to the ongoing war.The Belarusian oil sector, once a significant source of profit, has recently been compelled to reorganise its supply logistics and redirect its exports. Following a challenging year in 2022, Belarus’s two refineries, with support from Moscow, managed to partially recover their losses by capitalising on favourable price trends in the Russian fuel market. However, this industry, along with other sectors of the economy, has become entirely dependent on cooperation with Russia. While the refineries have adapted to the new circumstances, they were still forced to reduce oil processing by approximately one-third, which has negatively impacted their profitability and, consequently, diminished their importance within the national economy.

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The economy according to Xi Jinping: a technological ‘leap forward’

The economy according to Xi Jinping: a technological ‘leap forward’

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Xi Jinping; China

In the vision for the economy presented by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee (CC), technological progress is portrayed as the solution to the major issues affecting the People’s Republic of China and the concerns of its government. The party did not seize the event as an opportunity to present concrete solutions to China’s structural problems or to improve its current economic situation. Instead, preparations for a confrontation with the US remain the party’s unwavering priority. For Beijing, the ultimate goal of modernising the Chinese economy is to enhance the state’s security and to discover new sources of productivity. Technologies developed and upgraded within China, alongside the expansion of its industrial base, are crucial in achieving this. This is expected to reduce China's reliance on foreign supplies, to make industrial development the new driving force of economic growth and to secure China’s position as the global leader in innovation. This all comes at the expense of the Chinese people’s prosperity. When faced with the choice whether to combat the fundamental problem of low consumption or strengthen the ‘fortress’ which is being besieged by the US, Beijing has opted for a technological ‘leap forward’. This strategy is likely to escalate trade disputes with other countries that are affected by Beijing’s industrial policy and fear a ‘China shock 2.0’.

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Low speed rail. Delays in the implementation of the Rail Baltica project

Low speed rail. Delays in the implementation of the Rail Baltica project

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Sandra Baniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Rail Baltica project

Alongside Via Baltica, Rail Baltica (RB), which involves the construction of a high-speed railway (HSR) connecting the Baltic state’s capitals, has been the most important infrastructural venture carried out by these states since they regained independence. Due to mounting costs, the high rate of inflation recorded in recent years, the expansion of the scope of work and bureaucratic problems, its implementation is at least five years behind schedule. An almost four-fold increase in its cost, from €5.8 bn to €23.8 bn, is the biggest challenge, as now the project’s funding is in excess of the financial capacity of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. RB has been included in the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), as a result of which the Baltic states are obliged to complete the investment by 2030. Although Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have mainly financed its implementation from EU funds (85% of the eligible costs), these sums are highly insufficient. If the Baltic states fail to obtain further EU funds for this purpose, there is practically no chance of completing the investment, that is constructing all the planned sections and adjusting these to the required HSR parameters, in this time frame.

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Turkey: a looming demographic crisis

Turkey: a looming demographic crisis

Author(s): Zuzanna Krzyżanowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; demography; Black Sea

After many years of rapid population growth, Turkey’s demographic future hangs in the balance. The record-low birth rate in 2023 and the changing age structure indicate that Turkish society is entering a stage of ageing typical for highly developed countries. Regional disparities in this respect are also deepening: the country’s poorer, south-eastern region has a much higher fertility rate and a younger population, while the northern regions along the Black Sea have a higher average age. These current trends reflect deeper transformations taking place in Turkey, driven by internal migration and modernisation processes related to factors such as urbanisation and cultural changes; they are also the product of many years of economic uncertainty. Simultaneously, growing numbers of mostly young people have been leaving the country. These developments herald an imminent demographic crisis that will negatively impact the Turkish economy and necessitate a major adjustment of social policy.

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