Publisher: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

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The economic consequences of the war: a profound crisis looming for Russia

The economic consequences of the war: a profound crisis looming for Russia

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; military aggression against Ukraine; sanctions against Russia; Russian economy; The Kremlin; high oil prices;

In retaliation for its military aggression against Ukraine Russia has been sanctioned by around 50 countries, which accounted for half of Russia’s foreign trade and were of key importance to the stability of its capital market. The sanctions have hit the foundations of the Russian economy, principally targeting the financial market. The measures have affected every single sector of the economy, and the negative consequences of most of these measures have been immediate. Undoubtedly, this came as a major surprise to the Kremlin, especially as the scale of the sanctions considerably exceeded the scale of possible restrictions hinted at ahead of the invasion. It can be expected that as long as Russia continues to attack Ukraine, further restrictions will be imposed on it, including on its raw material sector.

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The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO

The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: The war in Ukraine; NATO; Germany’s security policy; Bundeswehr;

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undermined the principle of German policy based on the notion that “the security of Europe can only be built with Russia, not against it”. Most German elites have come to understand that Putin’s Russia is not only a challenge but also a threat to NATO, and that investments in national defence and bolstering collective defence are therefore necessary. However, when it comes to supporting Ukraine and raising the costs of the current war for Russia, the German government continues to factor into its calculations its own dependence on Russian oil and gas and the resistance of some in the SPD to supplying Kyiv with weapons. Berlin still fails to see that the Kremlin’s defeat in this war is necessary to ensure long-term security in Europe.

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An attempt to “deoligarchise” Ukraine – real action or a game of pretence?

An attempt to “deoligarchise” Ukraine – real action or a game of pretence?

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: The Ukrainian oligarchs; The Oligarchs Act; tax changes; Volodymyr Zelensky;

Over the past year, President Volodymyr Zelensky has changed his rhetoric towards representatives of big business, commonly referred to as oligarchs. He has made a shift from the position of a neutral arbiter to uttering slogans about combating their excessive influence on politics and the economy. On 5 November, he signed the Oligarchs Act, intended at limiting their influence on politics. In addition, an act amending tax regulations is to be passed in the near future, which will reduce the profits of those who own assets in the iron ore mining sector. However, the solutions adopted are largely of a populist nature and are unlikely to diminish the importance of the oligarchs. Instead, they may prove to be a convenient instrument for the ruling camp to put pressure on big business to ensure its loyalty. This will be crucial if Zelensky, contrary to the announcements he made during the election campaign, decides to seek re-election, which is becoming more and more likely.

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Digitalisation in Germany: an overview and what lies behind the delays

Digitalisation in Germany: an overview and what lies behind the delays

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; digitalization; new government;

The adaptation of the economy and the state to new information technologies – next to the energy transformation (Energiewende) – is viewed as one of the greatest civilisational challenges Germany is currently facing. However, progress in this area is lagging behind expectations: it fails to match the level of GDP per capita in relation to Germany’s competitors in the EU, the country’s export-oriented economy or its ambition to be Europe’s economic and political leader. The problems with digitalisation are not due to financial constraints. Their causes are much deeper: the approach to innovation, the lack of specialists on the labour market, Germans’ sense of unease towards new technologies, as well as previous mistakes made during the development of the transmission infrastructure.

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Russia 2021: Consolidation of a dictatorship

Russia 2021: Consolidation of a dictatorship

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; dictatorship; Vladimir Putin; Repression; Increased control over the Internet; Communists;

The dynamics of the domestic political situation in Russia in 2021 was determined by the authorities’ crackdown on Alexei Navalny – the most important opposition figure – as well as on his associates and supporters. The aim was to destroy the nucleus of a nascent political alternative to the regime in view of the parliamentary election in September 2021 and, above all, the presidential election scheduled for 2024. The September vote revealed the limits of public support for the Kremlin and the considerable scale of the protest vote against those in power. Despite the unprecedented wave of repression and the lack of real competition in the parliamentary election, it was necessary to commit wholesale fraud to achieve the desired official results. The communist party (CPRF) became the main beneficiary of the protest vote, although it is doubtful whether the communists can become a real opposition force.

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Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Moscow; Kyiv; Kremlin's policy towards Ukraine; geopolitics; Volodymyr Zelensky;

Recent weeks have brought further displays of Russia’s escalating aggressive rhetoric and actions towards Ukraine, including troop movements near its border, as well as use of energy as leverage. This raises questions about Moscow’s intentions. Both the statements of Russian leaders and the policy of the Russian Federation in recent years indicate that it has not abandoned attempts to achieve one of its main policy objectives: restoring control over Ukraine. This is despite the fact that its actions to date – both limited military aggression and political, economic, and propaganda pressure – have only moved it further away from this goal. In the current conditions, with the stalemate in the Donbas conflict continuing, the Russian Federation is faced with a choice of its future strategy towards Ukraine. It has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv’s gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behaviour of key Western actors.

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The Caucasus deregulated. The region on the anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war

The Caucasus deregulated. The region on the anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: second Karabakh war; Azerbaijan; Armenia; Georgia; Russia; Turkey;

A year after the end of the second Karabakh war, the situation in the South Caucasus evades simple definition. On the one hand, it seems relatively stable: most of the provisions of the tripartite Statement that gave rise to the end of the fighting are being implemented. Moreover, apart from a defeated and weakened Armenia, all the actors involved in the war have reasons to be satisfied: Azerbaijan has regained control of most of the disputed territories and has proved its strength; Turkey, which supported Baku, has reaffirmed and expanded its influence in the region; Russia has strengthened its position as a regulator of the conflict, as mediator and guarantor of the agreement. On the other hand, however, the region is much more ‘deregulated’ and unstable than it was before the war: the ceasefire on the Karabakh front is based on a document of low formal status, as the real peace process is still frozen; the sense of satisfaction among all the participants (especially Baku and Ankara) is at an unsatisfactorily low level in relation to the ambitions awakened within their societies. Finally, the impression that the entire regional order is being undermined is not waning as the Turkish-Russian rivalry grows and – on the other hand – the role of the West and Iran, which played practically no role during the conflict or the year since its end, is marginalized.

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Zelensky vs. Akhmetov – a test of strength

Zelensky vs. Akhmetov – a test of strength

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański,Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Volodymyr Zelensky; Ukraine; Rinat Akhmetov; conflict between Zelensky and Razumkov;

In November, an open conflict broke out between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s richest businessman, Rinat Akhmetov. The main cause was Zelensky’s signing of the so-called law on oligarchs. In response, Akhmetov’s television channels, including the most popular one in Ukraine, began to ruthlessly attack the president and to promote his political rivals, in particular the former chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmytro Razumkov, who had been dismissed a few weeks earlier and who until recently had been one of the key representatives of the ruling camp, a person with high public support. In response, Zelensky publicly suggested that Akhmetov was involved in an allegedly prepared state coup and that his entourage was dragging him into a war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, the President’s Office stepped up actions against his business.

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High North, high priority – Norway and the defence of NATO’s northern flank

High North, high priority – Norway and the defence of NATO’s northern flank

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO’s northern flank; Russia; Norway; US; Norway’s Armed Forces;

NATO’s northern flank plays an increasingly important role in the security of the Euro--Atlantic area. Russia’s forces in the Northern Military District pose not only a conventional threat to Norway, but also a nuclear threat to the whole NATO, including the United States and Canada due to submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Russian Federation has been consistently increasing its military presence in the Arctic and its military activity along Norway’s borders. Deterring Russia in the High North, in increasingly close cooperation with the allies, is thus a key task for the Norwegian Armed Forces. Oslo is gradually lifting Cold War restrictions in the defence sphere and intensifying military cooperation with the US, which is stirring up political controversy in the country. From the US perspective, NATO’s northern flank is becoming more vital for containing Moscow. That is why they signed the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement with Norway, expanding US troop access to military infrastructure there.

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NATO 2030: towards a new strategy

NATO 2030: towards a new strategy

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO 2030; Alliance; NATO Strategic Concept; collective defence; Russia; China; European security;

The NATO summit held in Brussels on 14 June was intended to show a return to transatlantic unity after four years of the Trump administration. The new President Joe Biden wanted to demonstrate that the United States is resuming its leadership role in the transatlantic community; that NATO is still an important alliance for the US; and Washington is committed to the principles of Article 5. The Alliance is also adapting to changes in the security environment by adopting the NATO 2030 agenda and deciding to develop a new strategic concept. However, the parameters of this adaptation will be subject to further negotiations between the allies, particularly with regard to strengthening deterrence and defence on the eastern flank, and with regard to how and to what extent the Alliance should engage in containing China. At the same time, as NATO adjusts its course to focus on deterrence and defence, other formats for security cooperation between the US & Europe and among the European countries are being developed.

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Protest suspended – Belarusian society one year after the presidential elections

Protest suspended – Belarusian society one year after the presidential elections

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarusian society; presidential elections; Protests; national awakening;

The progressive decline in living standards in Belarus and the authorities’ dismissive attitude towards the COVID-19 pandemic have intensified public disillusionment with Alyaksandr Lukashenka. This led to an increase in the civic activity of Belarusians – previously seen as passive –in the campaign prior to the presidential election on 9 August last year. The revival of social life was accompanied by a growing national consciousness. Both processes mostly concerned the relations between the authorities and civil society, and to a lesser extent the geopolitical orientation, although later polls revealed the first signs of waning trust in Russia and a greater openness towards the West. The forged results of the vote this time gave rise to unprecedented protests, and the violent reaction by law enforcement only fuelled greater resistance among citizens. The lack of concessions shown by the authorities and the weariness of the demonstrators resulted in the demonstrations being brought to a halt at the end of 2020. At the same time, the authorities started to systemically and thoroughly eliminate independent media and third sector structures to discourage citizens from any manifestations of opposition. Despite the use of instruments characteristic of a totalitarian regime, there are numerous indications that the grievances have not been permanently suppressed. The Belarusian citizens who opposed the authorities last year mostly retained their pro-democratic views and aspirations to structure the state according to the Western model. They will rise rapidly to greater prominence as the oppressive regime backed by Russia continues to lose its credibility.

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Lukashenka’s last line of defence. The Belarusian security apparatus in a time of crisis

Lukashenka’s last line of defence. The Belarusian security apparatus in a time of crisis

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarusian security; Aleksandr Lukashenko; The authoritarian model of power; Russia; KGB;

The political crisis which has been raging in Belarus since August 2020 and the growing public discontent with the regime have become the greatest challenge to the current government in recent history. Lukashenka has not considered the possibility of stabilising the situation by means of at least superficially holding a dialogue with society. He has resorted to repressive methods to crush the crisis and adopted a model of state management that resembles a state of emergency. The state’s internal security institutions have become the most important pillar of Belarusian authoritarianism, to a degree holding Lukashenka hostage to their vision of the world. The ever-expanding legal instruments allowing for the radical ramping up of repression against the regime’s opponents have reinforced the police state system in which all spheres of activity, not only social, but also economic and educational, have been placed under strict supervision by the KGB, the Ministry for Internal Affairs or the prosecutor’s office. This has led to the marginalisation of the civilian nomenklatura’s role, making it easier for representatives of the ministries of state power to consolidate their position in the administration. The position of the Belarusian security institutions has also been strengthened by their good relations with the Russian state power sector, especially with regard to coordinating activities against the West.

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A durable state. The 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence

A durable state. The 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine’s independence; USSR; Political history of Ukraine; Russian aggression; Malorossiya;

On 24 August 1991, Ukraine proclaimed independence, and a few months later (together with Russia and Belarus) it brought about the dissolution of the USSR. At the time of its foundation, the Ukrainian state was a continuation of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic; on the one hand, this delayed the de-Communisation of the organisational and legal system, but on the other, it saved the country from having to build up state institutions from scratch. After nearly a quarter of a century, the hour of its greatest trial arrived – revolution and war with Russia. Ukraine passed this test: it did not unilaterally implement the political part of the Minsk agreements which posed a direct threat to it, nor has it fallen into the group of ‘failed states’. The main threat to its future is not so much the ongoing conflict in the Donbas or the weakness of the economy, but rather demographic collapse: during its nearly thirty years of independence, it has lost a fifth of its population.

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The Zapad-2021 exercises. Russian strategy in practice

The Zapad-2021 exercises. Russian strategy in practice

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Zapad-2021; Russian Armed Forces; Russian strategic exercises; Belarus;

The Zapad-2021 strategic exercises, scheduled for 10–16 September, are the most important training programme yet undertaken held by the Russian Armed Forces and the Belarusian army which cooperates with them. As they involve as many as 200,000 soldiers, they will also be the largest military exercises conducted in Europe for nearly 40 years. The training phase actually began in July, and will peak during the officially announced dates. The accompanying disinformation operation began even earlier, at the end of 2020; the aim was to present the exercises as a defensive action by the alliance of Belarus and Russia against allegedly rising aggression by NATO. The Zapad-2021 (zapad meaning ‘west’) exercises are a test of how ready the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus are to conduct operations on NATO’s eastern flank, but they also represent a test of the state structures, in terms of the comprehensive security of their activities and operation in conditions of armed conflict. Particular importance should be attached to the attempt at verifying how effective both countries will beat conducting information warfare, the goal of which is to confirm the potential enemy in the belief that Russia is militarily superior, and that it is ready to use force for political purposes.

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The Czech Republic’s struggle with e-government during the COVID-19 pandemic

The Czech Republic’s struggle with e-government during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Martyna Wasiuta / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czech Republic; e-government; COVID-19 pandemic; digitisation of public administration;

Against the backdrop of the CEE region, the Czech Republic stands out when it comes to the digitisation of the country’s economy and society. The achievements of its private sector in this field make it one of the leaders of digitisation in the EU. Czech programmers are among the world’s most talented IT specialists, which is demonstrated by the fact that one of the world’s most popular antivirus programmes was developed in the Czech Republic. However, this positive picture of digitisation is clouded by the country’s major delays in the development of public services and Internet infrastructure. The oligopolistic structure of the mobile telephony market is dominated by three large operators offering services at prices that are among the EU’s highest and forms a serious barrier to expansion of the infrastructure. In addition, the country’s delays in developing new solutions, combined with insufficient competence on the part of Czech officials, discourage citizens from using e-government services, which they consider not to be particularly user-friendly. Although the pandemic has triggered significant progress in this field, certain key problems remain unresolved. Another obstacle slowing down the pace of digitisation involves tension within the ruling coalition, which in turn undermines the coordination of digitisation activities in the public sector as a whole.

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The EU’s security and defence policy: in search of a compass

The EU’s security and defence policy: in search of a compass

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU’s security and defence policy; Military-technical cooperation; EU’s military missions; The Strategic Compass;

In the EU, work is underway on the Strategic Compass, a security strategy that is intended to define the Union’s priorities in crisis management, capability development, partnerships and resilience for the next 5–10 years. It aims to define the EU’s role in an increasingly complex security environment where NATO and the US are redefining their priorities. The Strategic Compass is also intended to maintain the momentum of the EU initiatives launched in 2016, such as the Permanent Structured Cooperation or the European Defence Fund. The process of developing the document, and the EU’s security and defence policy in general, has been marred by the member states’ conflicting threat perceptions and interests. Nevertheless, under pressure from France and the European Commission, the EU has been making some progress in this area. The Strategic Compass will set the framework for Union’s future actions. However, implementing the strategy will depend on the member states’ commitment to the means and goals agreed, and thus cannot reflect the interests of one group of EU countries alone.

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Digitisation in Romania accelerates during the pandemic

Digitisation in Romania accelerates during the pandemic

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Keywords: Digitisation in Romania; COVID-19 pandemic; public’s limited digital competences; e-government sector; e-commerce; Cybersecurity;

Romania stands out as having one of the EU’s least developed systems of online public services, which contrasts with its extensive telecommunications infrastructure offering very fast and cheap access to the network. This is due both to the policy of the governments, which until 2019 did not show much interest in the digitisation process of the country or failed to propose a comprehensive programme for its implementation, and to the resistance of the public, who were distrustful of the e-government solutions offered. However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a breakthrough: on one hand, it spurred the authorities to introduce legal changes and deploy new technological solutions that had hitherto been postponed, and on the other, it forced Romanian society to use public digital services.

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Ukraine’s disputes over the 80th anniversary of the Babi Yar massacre

Ukraine’s disputes over the 80th anniversary of the Babi Yar massacre

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: Babi Yar massacre; Ukraine’s politics of memory; political aspect of the conflict;

On 29 September 2021 and 6 October 2021 two competing ceremonies were held in Kyiv to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the massacre at Babi Yar, where Kyiv Jews and representatives of other ethnic and political groups were exterminated. No comprehensive commemoration of these crimes was offered, either during the Soviet era or in the last 30 years of Ukraine’s independence. It was only in recent years that two projects to commemorate the Babi Yar massacre emerged. However, a sharp dispute between their initiators is ongoing. The first project, proposed by the Academy of Sciences and supported by ‘patriotic’ groups, presents the Holocaust against the backdrop of the martyrdom of other nations, and views Ukraine as a victim of two totalitarian systems. The other project, which is a private initiative, focuses on commemorating the genocide of the Jews on Ukrainian soil. However, this one has sparked controversy mainly due to the involvement in it of sponsors and contributors from Russia. This project has received backing from both the Ukrainian and Israeli governments due to its advanced stage of implementation, its cutting-edge design and its focus on Holocaust.

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The cost of a police state: Belarus’s economic problems

The cost of a police state: Belarus’s economic problems

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus’s economic problems; SARS‑CoV‑2 and politics; economic recession; Budget deficit;

Although the COVID-19 pandemic did trigger a recession in Belarus, the greatest blow to the country’s economy has been its deep political crisis. This was caused by the authorities rigging the results of the presidential election, which in turn provoked mass opposition from the citizens. Alyaksandr Lukashenka, focused on remaining in power, resorted to unprecedented repression, which over the following months completely shattered many years of efforts to improve the investment climate and to achieve a partial liberalization of the economy. These efforts included a flagship initiative to develop the Belarusian IT sector. 2020 revealed the Belarusian economy’s great sensitivity to the global economic slump and the regime’s inability to launch free-market reforms. As a consequence, although in 2020 Belarus’s GDP fell just0.9%, the country found itself in an extremely difficult situation due to the magnitude of other threats to its economic stability. Belarus’s inability to effectively refinance its foreign debt using funds offered by Western institutions, its significant budget deficit (approximating the level recorded in the crisis years of the 1990s) and the state sector’s largely unpayable debt to the local banks will all result in continued aggravation of the economic crisis. Alongside this, they will provoke a rise in Russia’s importance as the only ally and lender to an internationally isolated Belarus. Without Russia’s assistance, the risk of the Belarusian economy collapsing will increase significantly in 2021.

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Great ambitions: Russia expands on the LNG market

Great ambitions: Russia expands on the LNG market

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Keywords: LNG market; Russia; Russian LNG production and exports; Russia’s energy strategy;

Expansion on the liquefied natural gas market has become one of the priority areas in Russia’s energy policy in recent years. This has been reflected in the statements made by government representatives and the many strategic documents that have been adopted recently. In particular, on 16 March this year the government approved a document entitled The Long-term Programme for the Development of Liquefied Natural Gas Production in the Russian Federation which envisages ambitious plans for further development in this area: an output of 80 to 140million tonnes of LNG in 2035. The assumptions of the strategy fit in with the trend of regular increases in the production and export of Russian LNG which have been visible in recent years (from 11 to nearly 30 million tonnes in 2016–19). It can be concluded from these announcements that Russia is planning to increase its share in the global liquefied natural gas market to over 10%, and possibly even up to 20–30%. The expansion in this sector is also an argument for Moscow to strengthen its political and military presence in the Arctic. Increasing the Russian share on the European LNG market may also be a kind of remedy for Gazprom’s loss of influence in some EU countries.

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