Publisher: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

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Germany’s first national security strategy: the minimal consensus

Germany’s first national security strategy: the minimal consensus

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; National security policy; NATO; Russia; Natural resources;

On 14 June 2023, the German government adopted the country’s first ever national security strategy entitled ‘Integrated Security for Germany’. The strategy is guided by an ambitious comprehensive approach which emphasises the need to boost Germany’s defence preparedness, resilience and to ensure the sustainable use of natural resources. This is also the first time when Russia has been clearly identified as a threat to Germany and its allies. The document highlights also the role of NATO and Germany’s commitment to collective defence. The ruling coalition has been aware of the need to define more precisely its course in the security policy.At the same time, the strategy reflects the minimal consensus between the coalition parties in many areas. However, this strategy can only serve as a starting point for further discussions due to the lack of priorities and defined tools, inadequate funding and unresolved problems with policy coordination.

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Disappointing post-COVID-19 recovery. China on the path of a protracted slowdown

Disappointing post-COVID-19 recovery. China on the path of a protracted slowdown

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; China; zero COVID strategy; Chinese economy; economic security; GDP;

China’s economy started the year with a clear upturn after the ‘zero COVID’ strategy was lifted, but the macroeconomic data published in recent weeks has clearly fallen short of expectations. The situation has caused disquiet in Beijing and among those economists who expected the robust rebound to continue. In order to stimulate economic activity, the People’s Bank of China has made a slight cut to interest rates. Moreover, respected foreign media outlets have reported that the government is readying a stimulus package with investments in infrastructure as its core component. The aim of these slightly more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is to bolster economic growth in the second half of the year, but their effectiveness will be limited. Low economic confidence among households and businesses remains a barrier to increased activity. China’s economy has entered a period of structural slowdown as it grapples with the cumulative costs of the rapid economic expansion over recent decades, deteriorating public sentiment and an unfavourable international environment. Beijing’s options for stimulating the economy are narrowing and the priorities are shifting: the imperative to boost GDP is giving way to economic security.

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At all costs. Germany shifts to LNG

At all costs. Germany shifts to LNG

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; LNG; Russia's aggression towards Ukraine; Energy alliance; energy transition;

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting collapse of the concept of an energy alliance between Berlin and Moscow, have become the catalysts for Germany to change its approach to building LNG import infrastructure. In order to become permanently independent of Russian supplies, Berlin has made an enormous financial effort to build its own terminals at record speed and on an unprecedented scale. The facilities planned will not only enable Germany to meet its economy’s demand for gas, but will also help it to maintain its role as the gas hub for Central Europe, which has been somewhat weakened recently. They will also allow it to continue to use gas as a transition fuel during the period of the country’s energy transition (Energiewende).

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From Popasna to Bakhmut. The Wagner Group in the Russia-Ukraine War

From Popasna to Bakhmut. The Wagner Group in the Russia-Ukraine War

Author(s): Jakub Ber / Language(s): English

Keywords: The Wagner Group; Russia-Ukraine War; Russian mercenary organisation; Popasna; Soledar and Bakhmut;

The Russian mercenary organization known as the Wagner Group was not engaged in the fighting in Ukraine until April 2022, when it turned out that the regular army was unable to breakthrough their opponents’ defences in the Donbas. In May and June, the mercenaries became the ‘assault engine’ of the offensive: they played a key role in capturing Popasna and entering the outskirts of Bakhmut. In the summer, Vladimir Putin decided to turn the Wagner Group into a separate unit operating as part of the Russian troops in Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman and criminal who manages this structure on behalf of the Kremlin, was given a large dose of independence and permission to recruit prisoners en masse. Despite recruiting tens of thousands of criminals into the ranks and receiving comprehensive logistical and material support from the resources of the regular army, the Wagner Group has still failed to capture Bakhmut. However, they have managed to tie down significant enemy forces in this part of the Donbas, and thus prevented their engagement in the offensives near Kherson and in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts. The Wagner Group’s autumn offensives largely contributed to stabilizing the front in what was a critical period for the invaders. It seems that this formation’s combat value and importance as part of the troops engaged in Ukraine will gradually decrease, due to the huge losses suffered by Prigozhin’s mercenaries in the battles of Bakhmut and the exhaustion of the current recruitment model.

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Election of the century in Turkey

Election of the century in Turkey

Author(s): Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; presidential and parliamentary elections; Turkey’s political system;

On 14 May Turkey will hold both presidential and parliamentary elections. Seeking to extend its21-year rule is the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Their main rival is the opposition bloc dominated by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), whose leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, is running for president. An opposition victory would mark the beginning of a tumultuous process of re-evaluation and reckoning for the AKP government, while an AKP victory would lead to the petrification of the status quo. The election comes against the backdrop of an economic crisis and social polarisation, as well as frustrations present in the population, which have been exacerbated by the earthquake and growing accusations of authoritarianism in Turkey. According to the polls, the chances of victory for these two groups are very even, making it hard to predict the outcome of the elections. In the current situation, the result of the elections is likely to be contested by the losing side which might lead to public protests. This state of social tensions would be prolonged in the very likely event of run-off of the presidential election (28 May).

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Arms deliveries to Ukraine: crossing the red lines

Arms deliveries to Ukraine: crossing the red lines

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk,Jacek Tarociński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; War; military support to Ukraine; Western military support;

The scale of the military support that the West has been providing to Ukraine is unprecedented. Both the type of supplies of arms & military equipment and the needs of Ukrainian Armed Forces have been evolving during the course of the war. Just as the conflict can be divided into major phases, one can identify the corresponding political decisions that extended Western arms supplies to Ukraine and crossed the West’s self-imposed red lines. From the beginning of the Russian invasion, Kyiv has clearly defined its needs in terms of arms, military equipment and ammunition. The assistance individual countries have rendered to Ukraine has depended on their military and economic capabilities, as well as their political will.

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Education serves the regime. The ideologisation and militarisation of the Belarusian education system

Education serves the regime. The ideologisation and militarisation of the Belarusian education system

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarusian education system; legal framework for the education system; military-patriotic education; militarisation of education;

As the Belarusian regime has intensified its policy of repression against society since August 2020,its other domestic policy priorities have come to include an overhaul of the education system and stricter supervision over Belarusian schools. Particularly strong pressure has been put on private institutions which the authorities view as hotspots of anti-state ferment. On the basis of laws enacted in 2022, a requirement was introduced for operators of educational facilities to obtain a special licence to run their schools, which resulted in a significant reduction in the number of private schools. A major overhaul of curricula has also been launched, particularly concerning topics such as history and literature. This is intended to eliminate or marginalize topics which emphasise Belarus’s European identity from school curricula. As a consequence, the content taught to students now resembles the content prevailing in the Russian narrative. Belarus’s politics of memory has been subject to similar attempts to align it with Russian standards.

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The EU gas market: revolutionary changes and the spectre of another winter

The EU gas market: revolutionary changes and the spectre of another winter

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU gas market; The war and the reduced supplies from Russia; Russian LNG imports; rising gas prices;

The European Union survived last winter in a surprisingly effective way. Despite the ongoing gas crisis and Russia’s energy war with the West, there were neither painful shortages of gas or the need to ration it. This was the result of an exceptionally favourable set of circumstances: a warmer winter than usual in Europe and lower gas demand in China, and on the other hand, the actions taken by individual member states and the EU as a whole, as well as changes on the market.2022 saw a revolutionary reshuffle in the directions and routes of gas supplies to the EU. Pipeline supplies from Russia, which used to be the largest source, fell by 56% year-on-year, while LNG supplies from the global market rose by 67%. Liquefied natural gas has become the most important source, and the EU has become the world’s fastest growing market for LNG, despite its long-term goals of achieving climate neutrality and reducing gas consumption. Unexpectedly, and contrary to the earlier assumptions of the European energy and climate policy, the construction of new gas infrastructure, including floating import terminals, has been stepped up. At the same time the EU’s demand for gas fell by a record 60 bcm (or over 13%) last year.

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Games between allies. Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow

Games between allies. Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Xi Jinping; Vladimir Putin; Moscow; Russia; China; Moscow summit; impact of the war on Russian-Chinese relations; alliance;

The official visit by Xi Jinping, the Chairman of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to Moscow on 21–23 March was a demonstration of his country’s continued support for Russia in its conflict with the West. It also served as confirmation that Beijing and Moscow will continue to work for the revision of the international order, and therefore they regard each other as indispensable partners. The decisions on economic cooperation announced at the summit, and their intended results, point to a growing asymmetry in Sino-Russian economic relations. Economically, Russia is falling into a deep trade dependence on the PRC, its technology, and the use of the Chinese currency (RMB) for international settlements. Beijing is also showing growing ambitions to shape the security situation in the post-Soviet area, something previously reserved for Moscow.

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Can the global battle for electromobility pose a threat to Central Europe?

Can the global battle for electromobility pose a threat to Central Europe?

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: The balance of trade; EU; China’s expansion in the field of electromobility; IRA;

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) adopted in 2022 marks a profound change in the US’s approach to its economic competition with China. This will have global consequences, and will also come to affect Central Europe. Since this document was adopted, Washington has used subsidies to restrict access to the American market as a fully-fledged tool of its industrial policy. This is aimed at blocking the expansion of the Chinese automotive industry in the US and pushing it out of Western companies’ supply chains. As a result, Beijing will most likely utilise its resources to dominate the European market, capitalising on the advantages it already has. The discussion about the European response to the IRA, as well as the growing dependence of German companies on Chinese technologies in the field of electric vehicle production, suggest that Germany and Central Europe are drifting apart as regards the automotive industry, even though they used to have similar interests in this area. German vehicle manufacturers are opposed to imposing restrictions on vehicles made in China on the European market, as they fear retaliation and losing competitiveness. From the Central European perspective, the increasing presence of Chinese electric vehicles (manufactured by both European and Chinese companies) in the EU poses a threat to a key pillar of economic growth. The region has experienced unfair competition from Beijing for years, but it has managed to gain a foothold as a car production hub; its position may be undermined as a result of China’s expansion in the field of electromobility.

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An anti-colonial alliance with the Global South. The new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’

An anti-colonial alliance with the Global South. The new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: anti-colonial alliance; Russian Federation; Foreign policy; anti-colonialism;

On 31 March, President Vladimir Putin signed the new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’. This is the fifth version of the document adopted by the Russian Federation, and the fourth under his rule (the previous ones were adopted in 1993, 2000, 2008, 2013 and 2016). The current edition is primarily of significance as propaganda. Its main purpose is to present Moscow’s conflict with the West as a defence against Western policies, which allegedly pose an existential threat to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The document depicts Russia as the defender of the non-Western world against Western hegemony and neo-colonialism. The document also reflects a reorientation of Russia’s foreign policy towards its non-Western partners (primarily China, India, the ‘Islamic world’ and the Asia-Pacific region) at the expense of frozen or hostile relations with the transatlantic community, especially the United States.

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‘The silence of the lambs’. Russian big business in wartime

‘The silence of the lambs’. Russian big business in wartime

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Russian businesses; War in Ukraine; multi-billion-dollar losses; Vladimir Putin;

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed it have brought multi-billion losses to Russian big business. The magnitude of blows dealt to its main representatives has resulted in a shift in the business model they have applied thus far. Despite these losses, most Russian billionaires, just like Russian society, have tacitly come to terms with Moscow’s aggressive policy. Even those who reside abroad have not ventured to criticise the Kremlin, and instead have focused on adjusting their businesses to the new economic reality. Silence has been their main defensive strategy, enabling them to avoid being targeted by the Russian authorities.

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A multi-speed mobilisation. NATO’s eastern flank one year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

A multi-speed mobilisation. NATO’s eastern flank one year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Russia; Ukraine; Wartime; Defence strategies; Baltic region; Poland; Visegrad Group; Invasion of Ukraine;

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has challenged the security of the countries of NATO's eastern flank on an unprecedented scale. The Baltic states, the Visegrad Group and the Black Sea states are all situated in the neighbourhood of Ukraine or Russia. Due to the invasion, the sense of threat posed by Russia has escalated significantly, although Russia had already been seen as a threat in the region since at least the annexation of Crimea in 2014. All these countries are advocates of strengthening NATO’s collective defence and allied presence on the eastern flank. Most of them are among the top contributors to the political and military support provided to Ukraine. Defence policy and the modernisation of the armed forces have clearly gained priority throughout the region.

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The EU increases its agri-food imports from Ukraine: causes and reactions from Central European states

The EU increases its agri-food imports from Ukraine: causes and reactions from Central European states

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Ukraine; agri-food import; Grain imports from Ukraine; Oil seed imports; agricultural production; War in Ukraine;

31 March 2023 saw the publication of a joint letter by the prime ministers of Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, and the president of Bulgaria, to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on the measures they intended to take to counteract the negative effects of the increased imports of agricultural products from Ukraine to the EU. The document highlights the unprecedented increases in imports of grain, oil seeds, fruit, dairy and honey. It also proposes measures to improve the situation of local agricultural producers, including increasing the financial support offered to them. The authors of the letter emphasise that if the market disruptions cannot be eliminated by other means, tariffs and tariff rate quotas will need to be re-introduced on imports from Ukraine (they were suspended in June 2022). On 7 April 2023, Warsaw and Kyiv reached an agreement on suspending the export of wheat, corn, sunflower seeds and rapeseed to Poland until the beginning of the new season (summer), while the transit of Ukrainian produce via Polish territory will be maintained.

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Ukraine: a decisive blow to the Moscow Patriarchate?

Ukraine: a decisive blow to the Moscow Patriarchate?

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Moscow Patriarchate; Lavra; UOC-MP; Russian invasion on Ukraine;

29 March 2023 marked the deadline for representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) to leave the Pechersk Lavra monastery complex in Kyiv, which they had been leasing. On 10 March the Ministry of Culture, which formally supervises the shrine, announced the termination of the agreement following a government audit which uncovered numerous irregularities there. Some of the clergy complied with the order, while another group headed by the lavra’s abbot, Metropolitan Pavlo (Lebid), refused. On 1 April, on the basis of a court ruling, the metropolitan was placed under house arrest for 60 days on charges of justifying the Russian attack on Ukraine. However, some monks still remain at the facility.

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Russian economy in 2022. Adaptation and a growing budget gap

Russian economy in 2022. Adaptation and a growing budget gap

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Economy; 2022; Budget; Agriculture; consumer demand; natural gas output; Russian currency;

Russia’s macroeconomic performance in 2022 confounded forecasts from one year ago, a few weeks after the invasion of Ukraine. However, in wartime conditions, indicators such as GDP do not accurately reflect the real state of the economy, due to the rapidly increasing military expenditure, the scale of the ongoing changes and major differences between individual sectors. Furthermore, the credibility of the published macroeconomic data is declining and the government has been restricting access to statistical data.

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Mobilisation in Russia: society’s reactions and the economic consequences

Mobilisation in Russia: society’s reactions and the economic consequences

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; mobilisation; Armed Forces of the Russian Federation; emigration; economic costs of mobilisation;

The mobilisation of 300,000 reservists into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which has been ongoing since the end of September 2022, has laid bare the chaos in the administrative apparatus and has given rise to concern among citizens. It has made many Russians realise that their country is waging a genuine war, which requires direct involvement on their part. The government’s decision has provoked a visible reaction in society, involving young men emigrating from Russia in numbers which are difficult to estimate.

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A year of war in Ukraine’s foreign trade

A year of war in Ukraine’s foreign trade

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian invasion of Ukraine; Foreign trade; Rail and road transport; Ukraine's GDP;

The Russian invasion has led to a collapse in Ukraine’s trade, in particular foreign trade. It has also caused major changes in the geographical structure of its imports and exports. Due to the Russian blockade, Ukrainian ports have lost their status as the country’s main export gateway. Rail and road transport has gained in importance, as since 24 February 2022 Ukraine has used them to ship and import most of its goods via the territory of its western neighbors. As a consequence, the European Union has consolidated its role as Kyiv’s main trade partner in both exports and imports, while Poland – for the first time in history – has become the leader in Ukraine’s trade exchange.

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The reluctant co-aggressor. Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine

The reluctant co-aggressor. Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Kamil Kłysiński,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Keywords: War against Ukraine; Belarus; Alyaksandr Lukashenko; Belarusian power apparatus;

Since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the Republic of Belarus (RB) has made its territory and its military, transport and logistical infrastructure available to the Russian army. However, the Belarusian army is not taking part in the hostilities. Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime is reluctant to become directly involved in the war, which results from anti-war sentiment among the country’s elite and the majority of the population, and out off ear of the domestic destabilisation which would most likely occur should the Belarusian army enter Ukraine. Therefore, Lukashenka is making attempts to avoid such a scenario: he regularly denies rumours that the Kremlin is putting pressure on him, and has stressed that the main threats to Belarus include alleged acts of provocation and aggressive behaviour from NATO. At present, there are no indications that the Kremlin intends to send Belarusian troops to take part in the war; it seems satisfied with the current format of cooperation between the two countries. Russia’s main task for Belarus, as part of the Regional Group of Forces, is to provide cover for its own forces, while the Belarusian army itself is unprepared to launch offensive actions. The most likely short-term scenario involves Minsk continuing to provide multifaceted support to the Russian army without directly dispatching its own troops to Ukraine.

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Putin’s neo-totalitarian project: the current political situation in Russia

Putin’s neo-totalitarian project: the current political situation in Russia

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Vladimir Putin; Russia: neo-totalitarianism; War in Ukraine; Society in Russia and their attitude on war;

As the invasion of Ukraine began, the totalitarian ambitions of the Putin regime were revealed on a larger scale than ever before. These designs have been reflected in increased repression, the unprecedented encroachment of the state into the private lives of citizens, the growing ideologisation of the public discourse, and top-down efforts to mobilise public support for the war. The regime is dismantling the previous semblance of pluralism that had existed within the ruling elite. There is no sign of a coming split within the political establishment and business circles, while society is demonstrating great adaptability to the realities of armed conflict. Even forced deployments of citizens to the frontline have not met with any significant resistance. This situation is likely to continue unless Russia suffers a crushing military defeat in Ukraine. It should be assumed that Vladimir Putin will run in the presidential election scheduled for March 2024 and build his legitimacy on the myth of ‘defensive war’ against the West.

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