Publisher: CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies

Year of Disruptions in Moldova’s European Integration: Top 3 Accomplishments and Failures in 2018

Year of Disruptions in Moldova’s European Integration: Top 3 Accomplishments and Failures in 2018

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldowa EU-Accession;

The year 2018 brought, on the one side, the drastic reduction in the government’s capacity to mislead the European partners concerning the state of reforms. The opposition and civil society turned instead into the main credible messengers of the EU in Moldova. At the same time, the pro-European sympathies remained above the Eurasian course despite the decline in the bilateral relations with the EU. Also, the rise in exports to the EU was consolidated through Romania and this diminished the negative impact of Russian’s bans at least temporarily. // On the other hand, by its actions the government repeatedly exemplified the profoundness of the “state capture” phenomenon that generated the invalidation the results of the mayoral elections in the capital city. Consequently, the EU suspended not only the macro-financial assistance, but also the budget support that will be restored depending on the way in which the upcoming elections are held. Moldova set a risky precedent in the region and the conditionality mechanism applied by the EU turned out to be inefficient before the survival political interests of the local elites.

Future of Association Agreements in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia: Local, European and Russian Factors

Future of Association Agreements in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia: Local, European and Russian Factors

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Association Agreements; NGOs; political class;

The output of the Association Agreements will always be low if political corruption is not overcome, while the electoral cycles do not yield parliamentary majorities and upright governments. It is essential for the reform process to be directed by those who aim not to obtain personal benefits, but to modernize the country and to bring this closer to the EU’s positive standards. // Both the EU and Russia have incentives and constraints that can influence the direction of the Association Agreements. Even if the European factor is beneficial to the reform process, this necessitates recalibration and uniformity in addressing similar problems in the three countries, like the oligarchic regimes and others. The Russian factor is disinterested in the functionality of the Association Agreements, but does not perceive these as a major danger as it sees how challenging, hesitating and dependent on the yet corrupt human factor the reforms are. // Internal players that do not take part in governance in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia can guarantee a better implementation of the Agreements, but they necessitate protection and assistance from the European institutions. Without a robust civil society, independent mass media and free political opposition, the future of the Association Agreements is rather nebulous.

Transnistria: DCFTA’s Implications for Foreign Trade

Transnistria: DCFTA’s Implications for Foreign Trade

Author(s): Vadim Gumene / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Moldova-DCFTA;EU-Transnistria;

The Association Agreement between the Republic of Moldova and European Union has major political, social and especially economic implications (mainly ist component of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The economic side of it resulted in a completely new legal framework between the parties, which directly impacted the Transnistrian region. Initially Tiraspol did not show much interest in being part of the DCFTA, arguing that it would not be beneficial to the Transnistrian region’s economy.

Can a Free Trade Agreement with China be suitable for Moldova?

Can a Free Trade Agreement with China be suitable for Moldova?

Author(s): Vadim Gumene / Language(s): English

Keywords: China-Moldova-FTA;

At the beginning of 2018, the Government of the Republic of Moldova started negotiations on a free trade agreement with China. According to the Moldovan authorities, this initiative will facilitate trade between the two countries, and also attract investments into the country’s main economic sectors. The Moldovan authorities have published estimates that Moldovan exports to China could increase by 39.85% and the gross domestic product could increase by 0.42%.

Prospective FTA between Georgia and India: Another Result of DCFTA?

Prospective FTA between Georgia and India: Another Result of DCFTA?

Author(s): Tamara Kovziridze / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia's economic relations; Georgie-EU-FTA;

Even though the EU-Georgia DCFTA has not yet had any substantial impact on trade and Georgia’s exports to the EU, it undoubtedly changed in a positive way Georgia’s prospective attractiveness as a trade and investment hub. After the entry into force of the EU-Georgia DCFTA in 2014, Georgia concluded further FTAs with EFTA, China and Hong Kong. The DCFTA increased Georgia’s potential attractiveness as a market where in principle its FTA partners can invest, produce and then export to the EU, taking advantage of tariff free trade as well as of comparatively attractive business environment in the country. The real benefits of these new FTAs in terms of trade and growth remain still to be seen, but Georgia continues to pursue actively its liberal trade policies and conclude more FTAs with the aim to broaden its market. The next big market after China is India, and exploratory talks are also envisaged with the CEFTA (Central European Free Trade Agreement) region and possibly Israel as well.

Three Dimensions of Risk to Visa Liberalization in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine

Three Dimensions of Risk to Visa Liberalization in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: visa liberalisation; Schengen;

The visa-free regime extended to Moldova in 2014 and to Ukraine and Georgia in 2017 has marked an important milestone in their relationships with the European Union. As a result, traveling to Europe has been eased and turned into an indispensable normality for citizens from the three countries, provided that they own biometric passports and follow the rules of stay. More than 2 million of Moldovans, representing more than 65% of the population, crossed the European borders more than 6 million times in 5 years. Out of 2 million Moldovans who enjoyed visa-free regime approx. 25% were youth between 26-35 years old. Over 300.000 Georgians or 8.1% of all citizens experienced the visa exemptions in the first 2 years of its implementation. In Ukraine, this number has reached 5.6% (2.5 million persons) out of 44 million citizens.

Surrender of the oligarchic regime, re-launching of European integration in Moldova and Russia’s agenda

Surrender of the oligarchic regime, re-launching of European integration in Moldova and Russia’s agenda

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Even if the oligarchic regime in Moldova successfully monopolized political power during almost four years, it managed to oppose the remodeling of the political landscape by the coalition between ACUM and the Party of Socialists (PSRM) for only a week (June 7-14, 2019). The costs for keeping power by uninterruptedly abusing the Constitution and the state institutions increased exponentially, damaging drastically the internal and external approval of the Democratic Party and ascribing already irreparable negative attributes to it. The unity of the international community supporting the legitimacy of the ACUM-PSRM government had an isolating effect on the Democratic leader, oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc. For the latter, the perpetuation and deepening of political crisis would have hampered the ensuring of safe withdrawal conditions, which he finally obtained to leave Moldova on June 14, 2019.

Georgia: An Unexpected Expected Crisis

Georgia: An Unexpected Expected Crisis

Author(s): Ghia Nodia / Language(s): English

In the evening of June 19th, I with two other experts took part in a talk-show on a Georgian TV channel. We all agreed that for the moment, the Georgian Dream (GD) party led by Bidzina Ivanishvili, a secretive plutocrat, looked all but impregnable in power and had good chances to win again in the next parliamentary elections in October 2020. Yes, it was losing popularity for being ineffective and increasingly autocratic. However, it benefitted from controlling all levers of power and weakness of the opposition. In November 2019, it used blatant vote-buying and alleged voter intimidation to help the candidate it supported, Salome Zurabishvili, to win presidential elections. What would have stopped it from doing the same again?

Abkhazia and the danger of ‘ossetianization’

Abkhazia and the danger of ‘ossetianization’

Author(s): Thomas de Waal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia; Georgian-Russian relations;

When Georgian-Russian relations suffer a downturn—as they have over the crisis of the last two weeks--the people who live in Abkhazia and South Ossetia suffer the consequences. The Georgians of Abkhazia’s Gali region, who live a precarious life moving back and forth from their home region to Tbilisi-controlled territory, are the first casualties. But everyone in these territories has reason to feel worried. Last week the de facto authorities in Abkhazia mostly closed the main crossing point into western Georgia, stopping Gali Georgians from crossing the bridge across the Inguri River to the Zugdidi region, where most of them have relatives. In normal times, around 3,000 people a day cross back and forth. Foreigners were also forbidden to cross into Abkhaz territory.

Geographical indications in Ukraine: Prospects for Exports and local Development

Geographical indications in Ukraine: Prospects for Exports and local Development

Author(s): Yevhen Anhel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine;

Soon Ukraine might finally expand the list of products protected by the geographical indications (GIs). The AA/DCFTA includes more than three thousand GIs from the EU,2 with only two Ukrainian GIs, wines Soniachna Dolyna and Novyj Svit. Regretfully, these two have only political rather than economic significance as both indications refer to the occupied Crimea. As a result, Ukrainian producers still do not have any proper experience in using GIs in the EU market.

Zelenskyy’s Lustration Mistake

Zelenskyy’s Lustration Mistake

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

Keywords: lustration;

The term lustration (люстрація in Ukrainian) has its origin in Roman purification rituals. It came into use in contemporary politics in 1989-91 with the end of Communism in Europe, with several central and east European states banning former Communist regime officials from further public office. In Ukraine there was a lustration episode back in October 2014, to prevent top and mid-level officials who served during the Viktor Yanukovych’s presidency from taking the public office for a period of ten years.

Z-winner takes it all: What will the future Parliament of Ukraine look like?

Z-winner takes it all: What will the future Parliament of Ukraine look like?

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukrqine.

While the vote-counting in Ukraine continues, it is already clear that the president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has secured the power over legislative and, consequently, executive branches of the government. His political force, the Servant of the People party, has won a landslide victory in the snap parliamentary elections on July 21 losing only 3 out of 24 regions under the party lists and winning enough singlemember districts to guarantee a single-party majority. Indeed, this result is an extraordinary one: none of the political parties has ever had the opportunity to simultaneously have its representative in the presidential chair and unilaterally form the government. This poses both considerable opportunities and challenges to Ukraine’s political system.

Unlocking European Assistance for Moldova: with or without conditionality?

Unlocking European Assistance for Moldova: with or without conditionality?

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova;

Political changes in Moldova send extremely positive echoes abroad. The change of the law on prosecutors' office, the corrections to the electoral code to return to the proportional system, and the impetus to the investigation of "the theft of the billion", etc., generate very high expectations toward the new government. These expectations do not correlate with the real capacity and willingness of all institutions to translate into practice the political will of the new government. The latter struggles to put first the fight against the, already ousted, oligarchic regime, but also to bring state affairs and assets in order, starting with the urgent balancing of the public budget. Certain actions, ranging from political pressure on civil servants to proposals for tax changes without public consultations, have diluted initial optimism within civil society and the business environment.

New Russian bans on imports from Ukraine

New Russian bans on imports from Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Movchan,Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s dependence on the market for exports to Russia has been declining drastically since 2011 (Figure 1). Until then Ukraine’s exports to Russia, the EU and the rest of the world had been following similar paths. Since then exports to Russia got onto its own downward trajectory due to Russian aggression against Ukraine. New sanctions by Russia towards imports for Ukraine introduced in late 2018 and 2019 are now set to reduce these export flows even further.

Russia’s pragmatic game in a friendlier Moldova

Russia’s pragmatic game in a friendlier Moldova

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldovan-Russian relations;

The democratic space in Moldova is slowly recovering. However, it is uncertain if the ruling coalition, run by the Socialists and the ACUM bloc, is capable to preserve geopolitical neutrality and instill resilience in the institutions against the oligarchic influence. Following the goal to free the country from ‘state capture’, the coalition has inherited from its artificial character an inability to set long-term goals and a considerable portion of mutual mistrust. The survival of the coalition is under permanent questioning, including by the leaders of the coalition. The Prime Minister, Maia Sandu, speaks of ‘red lines’ (unspecified in public) that will eventually break the coalition once they are crossed by the Socialists (Unimedia, 31 July 2019). Likewise, acknowledging the geopolitical heterogeneity of the coalition, the President Igor Dodon calls it “very complicated” and unable to survive without the help of moderation and reciprocity (Socialistii.md, 17 July 2019). To ensure longevity for the coalition, he has even advocated “an ideological and geopolitical moratorium” (Radio Free Europe, 18 June 2019).

The strategic potential of Ukraine’s Zelenskyy

The strategic potential of Ukraine’s Zelenskyy

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine development;

Ukraine has wasted many years in episodes of deeply flawed government under its post-Soviet regimes, where the default condition was one of corrupt oligarchy. The results have been disastrous. In 1990, Ukraine’s income level was on a par with that of Poland. Now it is only one third. The first attempt to escape this condition was the so-called ‘Orange Revolution’ of 2004, which led to the feuding combination of Yushchenko as President and Tymoshenko as Prime Minister. The results were so poor that Yanukovych was able to win power, and restore corrupt oligarchy with a vengeance.

Georgia has another new Prime Minister: What does this mean?

Georgia has another new Prime Minister: What does this mean?

Author(s): Ghia Nodia / Language(s): English

After just a year and two months serving as Georgia’s prime minister, Mamuka Bakhtadze resigned. He explained his decision by saying that he had accomplished everything he planned to do, whatever that was. He was replaced by Giorgi Gakharia, the former interior minister. Irakli Garibashvili, who, though prime minister from 2013 to 2015 had not held any government position since then, became minister of defence.

Unblocking Reforms in Moldova: Constraints and Hazards

Unblocking Reforms in Moldova: Constraints and Hazards

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova;

The urgency of promised reforms pressurizes the new Moldovan government to deliver or to face criticism from all sides. Three months have passed since the Socialists and ACUM bloc took the power on June 15 (Gov.md, 15 June 2019). The implications for foreign policy are what get most visibility. The profound domestic reforms, such as over the judiciary and prosecutor, are initiated, but require longer to become effective and durable. The coalition is sustained by parties containing the inherent geopolitical and policy-related contradictions. There is a common understanding that only significant and continuous successes can hold it together. A new governing deal has been sealed on September 16th between the Socialists and ACUM, introducing non-aggression principles for the governing coalition.

EU-Georgia DCFTA: Results after 5 years and perspectives

EU-Georgia DCFTA: Results after 5 years and perspectives

Author(s): Lali Gogoberidze / Language(s): English

The Agreement between the EU and Georgia for the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) started to be applied (provisionally) five year ago in September 2014. This has represented a real opportunity for Georgia for to move closer to the Europe and to integrate into the European market. The EU policies in various areas covered by the DCFTA is a solid basis for improving the competitiveness of Georgia’s economy in general, while the EU’s safety standards for products and processes are of high level and accepted internationally.

EU road transport quotas are limiting trade expansion with Ukraine

EU road transport quotas are limiting trade expansion with Ukraine

Author(s): Vitaliy Kravchuk / Language(s): English

Over the last years, Ukraine has intensified its trade links with the EU driven by both the positive stimulus provided by the Association Agreement and a negative stimulus, namely the need to replace lost trade links with Russia. Between 2013 and 2018, the share of EU in Ukraine’s international trade in goods increased to 42% from 31%2, while 2018 trade value at USD 43.4 bn almost reached pre-crisis level (USD 43.8 bn in 2013) and grew by over 50% from 2015.