CEPS Policy Briefs present concise, policy-oriented analysis of topical issues in European affairs, with the aim of interjecting the views of CEPS researchers and external collaborators into the policy-making process in a direct and timely fashion.
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Keywords: Black Sea ; Danube basin; EU-Constitution; EU-Referendum;
CEPS Senior Research Fellow Michael Emerson asserts that the aftershocks of the EU’s failed referenda on the European Constitution will be most sharply felt – in an external sense – in the Black Sea region. He describes how Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia were the first hit by the tremors. But he traces its effects further than that, up the Danube basin to Belgrade, across the Caucasus to Armenia and Azerbaijan, and last but certainly not least up to Russia. For all the states that have been espousing long-term EU membership aspirations – including all of the above, except Russia –the author recommends they take time out for a reality check. For Russia, which had not anticipated this upset in the EU, it may be interpreted not so much a time for a rethink, as an encouragement not to have a rethink. For these states (in different degrees), there is a new question of strategic importance and the name of the game has changed. Emerson is keen to explore whether the EU’s hugely successful political conditionality machine and gravitational powers of attraction, as evidenced in its recent enlargement, can continue to operate with some variant model of virtual, functional membership? Or, if not, he asks whether the prospects for the deepening and consolidation of democracy in these regions are going to be seriously prejudiced? Date of Publishing: July 1, 2005
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Keywords: Central Asia; EU; foreign policy;
For the first time since the collapse of communism, the EU is facing a strategic challenge in its external policies. The rise of Russia and China as international actors – with India close behind – and the growing confidence of some leading regional powers, such as Iran, are creating a serious threat to the EU’s ambition to apply external policies that reflect European values. Against this background, the employment of the democracy – promotion agenda developed during the 1990s is unlikely to be effective and may even serve to weaken the position of the EU in key regions. This situation demands an urgent and far-reaching rethink of the approach the Union takes to external relations. If the EU is to remain a serious global actor, it will have to find ways to reconcile the imperative of engaging in difficult regions beyond the immediate European neighbourhood while also remaining true to the values of the Union.
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Keywords: Central Asia; EU strategy; foreign policy; security policy;
The German Presidency of the EU in the first half of 2007 inspired great hopes regarding the development of relations between the European Union and the states of Central Asia. In Brussels and other European capitals, it was expected that Germany, as an EU political and economic heavyweight and one of the key promoters of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, would be able to foster a coordinated Central Asian policy giving direction and coherence to European engagement in the region. It was widely hoped – within both the governments of Central Asia and the societies of the region – that Germany, which has traditionally been the most pro-active European country in the region, would elevate the relations between the EU and Central Asian states to a higher level.
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Keywords: Lisbon rules; rotating presidency of the Council; Hungary; Council of the European Union; administrative capacity;
On 1 January 2011, Hungary, the third member of the European Union to join the club in 2004, took overthe presidency of the Council of the European Union. This represents the first presidency of a newer member state under Lisbon Treaty rules. After the new treaty entered into force on 1 December 2009, all rotating presidencies are, in a sense, first time presidencies. Their relative success now depends more on administrative ability than political leadership.
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Keywords: European Union; United States; cooperation; international relations; Central Asia; democracy; human rights; security; geopolitics;
The European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.) have many shared interests in Central Asia, but follow different approaches. The main points of convergence are the pursuit of human rights standards, democratic development, stability and security, and the broader economic and social development of the Central Asian states. Naturally, there are also divergences, springing above all from the U.S.’s and the EU’s differing geopolitical positioning throughout the world. While the U.S. focuses largely on hard security, the EU mostly seeks to promote its security objectives through longer-term development approaches. Furthermore, each has its own trade interests in the region, although these do not seem to conflict at large.
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Keywords: European Union; Central Asia; Kazakhstan; foreign policy; international relations, Spanish presidency; energy policy;
2010 promises to be an interesting year for relations between Europe and Central Asia. The EU, guided by the Spanish Presidency, plans to initiate a review of the Strategy for Central Asia and is likely to build further on the political foundations that have been laid over the last two years. The OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) welcomes Kazakhstan as its first Central Asian chair and hopes that Astana can construct bridges between the ‘eastern’ and ‘western’ members that have been at odds over the last few years resulting in a weakened organisation. Both Spain and Kazakhstan acknowledge the importance of closely coordinating their leading positions next year and have held consultations to prepare well. Not only because Madrid and Astana maintain strong and friendly ties but also because it was during Spain’s OSCE Chairmanship in 2007 that a long-disputed decision was taken over which countries would lead the OSCE from 2009 to 2011.
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Keywords: rule of law crisis; EU weakness; European Parliament;
The year 2019 will be crucial for Moldova’s democracy and European course and for the sustainability of the European project in general. If the DPM remains in power, it could review the European agenda if it forms a government with the PSRM or elements that separated themselves from this. Nevertheless, the European agenda will not be abandoned, also owing to a solid pro-EU opposition inside the future Parliament. // At European level, the representation of the Eurosceptical forces could grow at the level of the European Parliament, creating unfavorable perspectives for solidarity inside the EU over migration or the sanctions imposed against Russia. The rule of law crisis in more EU member states will be increasingly visible. // Romania and Bulgaria are on this “blacklist”. The chaos of the Brexit, eruption of the Eurosceptical forces and compromised presidency of Romania in the EU in the first half of 2019 will hamper the proper functioning of the European institutions. The oligarchic and kleptocratic interests inside the EU and its neighborhood, including in the Eastern Partnership and Moldova, will tend to profit from the EU’s weaknesses.
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Keywords: EU-enlargement; Eastern Partnership;
Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine would like to find ways to reinforce their European integration ambitions, currently based on their Association Agreements and DCFTAs with the EU. Given the impasse over demands by these three states for 'membership perspectives', the question is whether there are other routes that could usefully by followed for the time being. Possible answers lead into a chain of linked issues concerning the future of the EU's neighbourhood policy and Eastern Partnership, andconditions for possible future enlargement (first of all for the Balkans). // There are some initiatives emerging on how possibly to reinforce the AA/DCFTAs. One track is to examine the scope for deeper sectoral policy integration in such areas as energy, digital, customs and justice cooperation, as advocated by Ukraine, to which might be added cyber defence.
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Keywords: democracy in Moldova;
Less than 1.5 million citizens voted to renew the legislative body of Moldova. This is only 49% of total number of voters or about 200.000 fewer votes compared to 2014. Neither the populist policies introduced by the government in 2018, nor the consultative referendum on reducing the size of the parliament that took place concomitantly with the elections, had much impact on stimulating higher participation.
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Keywords: Eastern Ukraine; information warfare; Donetsk; Luhansk; People’s Republic;
The Donbass region of eastern Ukraine is among Europe’s most deadly modern battlefields on which more than 13,000 people have been killed since 2014. But it is also a propaganda war, where many shots are being fired not to kill somebody but send a message – not always across the frontline. And unlike other conflicts in eastern Europe, this one cannot be explained by regional ethnic or religious antagonisms. Tragically, the suffering people of Donbass happen to live at the wrong place at the wrong time.
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Keywords: Ukraine-EU trade;
The year 2018 was a distinct year for Ukraine’s goods exports featuring several “never-before” statistical facts. On the one hand, the value and share of exports to the European Union reached their historic maximum, backed by the stimuluses provided by the DCFTA. According to the Ukrstat, Ukraine exported USD 20.2 bn to the EU, surpassing the previous peak registered in 2008, i.e. before the hardships of two economic crises and the occupation of the part of Ukraine’s territory. The share of the EU in total exports reached 43%, adding 1 percentage point compared to the previous year peak.
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Keywords: elections in Moldova; government-building Moldova; ACUM;
The Constitutional Court validated the mandates of the 101 new MPs (9 March, 2019), and the attention turns toward the formation of a viable coalition. The Democratic Party was the first to rush into negotiations on a future governing coalition. Led by the controversial oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, the party seeks to build a common platform with the Bloc ACUM which presents itself as the truly democratic party. But the latter rejects any kind of cooperation with the Democrats - their political enemy. Meanwhile the Socialists, with 35 MPs and highest number of seats, refrained from direct talks with the Democrats on a coalition agreement, but now instead invited ACUM to negotiations.
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Keywords: Volodymyr Zelenskyi; Petro Poroshenko; Yuliia Tymoshenko; Victor Yanukovych; Anatoliy Hrytsenko;
In less than two weeks, on March 31,2019, the Ukrainians will head to the polling stations to cast their vote for the country's next President. However, the winner would be announced only at the beginning of May since it is highly unlikely that any of the candidates would secure more than 50% of votes in the first round. The level of unpredictability of this year's elections in Ukraine is unprecedented. Out of 39 candidates included in a ballot, at least three seem to have the biggest chance to get into the second round and, consequently, win the presidential race.
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Keywords: Georgia-China FTA; EU-Georgia DCFTA;
The free trade agreement between Georgia and China has been in force since January 2018. Although one year is a short period to make any substantial conclusions about the first results, a very initial evaluation can still be made based on the recent trade and investment dynamics.
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Keywords: Volodymyr Zelenskyi; Petro Poroshenko; Yulia Tymoshenko;
The voting day passed rather calmly, and observers have not reported major electoral fraud, stating that basic standards of free elections were safeguarded. Hopefully the same will apply to the second round on April 21. // The final result of the first round comes as no surprise since the polls had done a good job predicting the outcome, although the gap between the two leading candidates proved to be larger than it was expected. The convincing victor was the comedian and TV-producer Volodymyr Zelenskyi with 30.2% of votes against the incumbent president Petro Poroshenko, who secured only around 16%. Yet, Poroshenko stays in the game after eliminating one his major rivals, Yulia Tymoshenko (13.4%), who had directed her criticism mainly against Poroshenko while avoiding confronting Zelenskyi.
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Keywords: Ukraine-Israel FTA;
In January 2019, Ukraine and Israel signed a free trade agreement (FTA), concluding more than five years of negotiations. Unlike the DCFTA with the EU covering a broad range of issues in trade in goods, services, capital flows and legal harmonisation, the agreement with Israel is a classic FTA. The cornerstone of the agreement is tariff liberalization in trade in goods.
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Keywords: Volodymyr Zelenskyi;Petro Poroshenko;
According to the results of the national exit poll that came out after the closure of voting stations on April 21, Volodymyr Zelenskyi is set to become the sixth president of Ukraine. The comedian and TV producer won a landslide victory — 73% against 26% — in a run-off against the current incumbent Petro Poroshenko.
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Keywords: energy supply for Moldova;
A Moldova still struggles to overcome the various handicaps in its energy sector. The de-politicization of the regulatory agency, diversification of supply, and Russia’s monopolistic position, combine to maintain serious distortions in the energy sector and develop new ones. Fully-fledged, top-down liberalization of the energy market remains elusive, hurting the competitiveness of industry and conditions for the final consumer.
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Keywords: captured state; democracy in Moldova;
After almost three months from the validation of the results of the parliamentary elections (9 March 2019), the political situation in Moldova is rapidly developing new outlines, postponing the talks concerning the early elections however without canceling them for good. The sudden warming of relations between the Bloc ACUM and the Socialists is temporary and is due to the fear of early elections in the circumstances of a mixed voting system and the maintenance of the Democratic Party in power.
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