Publisher: IDIS VIITORUL Institutul pentru Dezoltare şi Initiative Sociale

EU – Ukraine Relationship: An uncertain Future

EU – Ukraine Relationship: An uncertain Future

Author(s): Leonid Litră / Language(s): English

Cox & Kwasniewski mission declared that it is unable to persuade the President of Ukraine to eliminate problems that would allow Kiev to sign the Association Agreement with the EU. On November 21, the Ukrainian Rada amended in the final reading the law on parliamentary elections and thus met one of the three key requirements that Kiev committed to solve prior to the summit in Vilnius. The other two requirements are related to amending the legislation that would allow prosecution reform and creating a regulatory framework enabling the detainees (read Yulia Tymoshenko) to go abroad for treatment. Although the mission’s mandate was extended until the day of the summit, in the hope that the Ukrainian leadership will review its position, Kwasniewski already stated that they see their mission completed given the regrettable decision of the government in Kiev on 21 November to stop preparations for signing the Association Agreement. The main official argument to waive signing in Vilnius is avoiding a risky situation for the Ukrainian economy and the need to relaunch relations with Russia. However, it seems that beyond these arguments there is a range of problems that are not found in the official statements.

From Vilnius to Riga: the Republic of Moldova and the Dynamics of the Eastern Partnership

From Vilnius to Riga: the Republic of Moldova and the Dynamics of the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Eduard Ţugui / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Western Balkans;

The Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius was the major European diplomatic event in 2013, even though it did not meet all the Euro-integration expectations of the Eastern Partnership countries or European chancelleries. The European officials’ meeting in the capital of Lithuania did not mean ad litteram another Helsinki 1999, with the European Council confirming the importance of the extension process and the beginning of accession negotiations for Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Bulgaria and Malta. It does not have the significance and prospects of the November 2000Zagreb Summit, when the European Union launched the Stabilization and Association Process in the Western Balkans, but it still brings a new geopolitical reality to the post-Soviet space. The Vilnius Summit emotions are alive in Ukraine, even though the Kiev administration refused to sign the Association Agreement. The new realityis nevertheless important and is a turning point for the Republic of Moldova’s future, which requires equally important steps.

Foreign Policy of the Republic of Moldova in 2013 – The Beginning of European Integration Irreversibility?

Foreign Policy of the Republic of Moldova in 2013 – The Beginning of European Integration Irreversibility?

Author(s): Ion Tăbârţă,Corneliu Ciurea / Language(s): English

The Republic of Moldova’s political life in 2013 can be divided into two distinct periods: The first internally focused period was marked by the political crisis at the beginning of the leading to the second externally focused period beginning at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius on 28-29 November. The prospect of signing the Association Agreement in Vilnius dominated the internal agenda in the second half of 2013, contributing to the rallying of the Pro-European Coalition and prompted Moldovan diplomacy to act according to the principle of “all-or-nothing”. This approach will be considered successful if Moldova signs the Association Agreement and obtains visa liberalization in 2014. However, it may fail if Russia blocks the country’s association process as happened to Ukraine.

Inertia of European Integration in the Republic of Moldova

Inertia of European Integration in the Republic of Moldova

Author(s): Corneliu Ciurea / Language(s): English

IDIS „Viitorul” has consistently followed the evolution of the public and Moldovan elites’ opinion related to Moldova’s European integration processes. In two bulletins published in 2011 and 2012, “European integration of Moldova – is there still a national consensus?” by Leonid Litra and “Consequences of the disappearance of the national consensus on European integration” by Cornel Ciurea, we drew attention to some bizarre phenomena in the foreign policy promoted by the current government and the public support to these policies: 1) the support of the European idea is continuously decreasing and is paradoxically lower than during the communist governance in 2005 – 2009; 2) the current government promotes European Union association in an unfavorable context (unlike the accession of new states to the EU, which enjoyed full support of the population), which increases the risks associated to the process; 3) the European agenda is promoted under these conditions within a narrow circle of people, gradually becoming a group affair; 4) the criticism of integration processes by the opposition is confusing, focusing more on a Europeanism deficits rather than on the demolition of European idea (the Europeans are accused of failing to promote their own ideas in the fight against corruption, free market and enlargement). All these tendencies make the European integration of the Republic of Moldova increasingly unpopular. At the same time they take place with a grimness and absence of clear alternatives. Public officials prefer to characterize this process as having an irreversible character, but a more accurate term would be an inertial course / coasting, due to the lack of sufficiently strong forces that could obstruct this process.

Political Situation in Gagauzia: The Result of Internal Struggles or External Influence

Political Situation in Gagauzia: The Result of Internal Struggles or External Influence

Author(s): Veaceslav Berbeca / Language(s): English

Two referenda organized in Moldova’s autonomous region of Gagauzia on 2 February provoked heated debate in Moldovan society. At least two elements explain the attention of politicians and political commentators. First, the political elite from Gagauzia insisted, as a political affront to central authorities, on organizing these referendums even if the Court from Comrat declared them illegal. Secondly, the referendums aftermath delivered a severe blow to the Republic of Moldova’s image of the foreign policy course. These actions highlighted that there are contesters of the European integration idea. In this context, politicians and political commentators in Chisinau should answer two major questions: Who is guilty? And then, What has to be done? In this brief analysis we will try to identify the genuine reasons that politicians from the autonomous region held referendums and propose a range of recommendations to mitigate the implications of these events.

How real is the „Ukrainian Revolution”?

How real is the „Ukrainian Revolution”?

Author(s): Leonid Litră / Language(s): English

Keywords: Urkaine revolution; Majdan;

Violent suppression of protests in Ukraine and use of force have triggered a deep crisis involving all important actors in the region and have resulted in 88 deaths and 700 injured. Even if the apex was the flee of Yanukovych, withdrawal of security forces and release of Yulia Tymoshenko, the situation still remains tense because the protestors’ demands were not fulfilled, while Russophile regions are dissatisfied with the recent developments. The escape of Yanukovych does not resolve the problems Ukraine is facing; it simply puts an end to violence. Ukraine teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, with an interim president, without an institutionalized parliamentary majority. Protests that lasted for three months and started once the Government of Azarov refused to sign the Association Agreement with the EU and, subsequently, turned into anti-Yanukovych protests, were a historical event that was proof of the Ukraining nation welding. Protests outcome cannot be deemed a palace coup, since the Parliament voted by constitutional majority the return to 2004 Constitution and, subsequently, the mechanisms of this Constitution were implemented, which provide for the appointment of parliament speaker as interim president, although the procedure was not duly complied with.

Russia and the Territorial Integrity in the Post-Soviet: New Reality, Old Paradigm

Russia and the Territorial Integrity in the Post-Soviet: New Reality, Old Paradigm

Author(s): Octavian Țîcu / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian neo-imperialism;

Discussioons concerning the revival of the neo-imperial ambitions in the Russian Federation are in stage since the end of “honeymoon” relations between Moscow and West in the mid 1990’s. Belief in an emerging neo-imperial policy is being legitimized by recent actions. A widely recognized stereotype in Russian political thinking, influenced by an awareness of contemporary Russia’s weakness and loss of global power, is “until Russia is leader in its region of the world, it cannot be expected to become a global power.” Thus, self-assertion in the “Near Abroad” has become a substitute for the superpower-status inherited from both the Soviet period and a remoter, pre-revolutionary era.

Moldovan-U.S. Ties in the Context of Chisinau’s European Integration Process: Missed Opportunities and Possibilities for the Future

Moldovan-U.S. Ties in the Context of Chisinau’s European Integration Process: Missed Opportunities and Possibilities for the Future

Author(s): Cristian Cantir / Language(s): English

Since Moldova’s independence, Washington’s diplomacy in Chisinau has followed the same principles applicable to other former USSR members, including rhetorical and material support for the consolidation of democracy, free trade, and territorial integrity. The depth of the relationship has hinged, however, on a complicated interplay between domestic factors, especially in Chisinau, and the relative activism of the three big powers - Washington, Brussels, and Moscow – in the region. In the 1990s, Washington was Moldova’s major connection to the Western world. In the 2000s, the Eastward wave of expansion forced Brussels to develop a clearer foreign policy toward the post-Soviet space. As ties have deepened along that axis, the United States has gradually hitched its foreign policy to the European Union’s efforts in Moldova; Washington and Brussels speak today with a coherent voice in a push to deepen Moldova’s European integration project. U.S.-Moldovan ties are therefore no longer cast in the somewhat vague language of Westernization, but are framed in terms of their relevance for Moldova’s ultimate goal of joining the European Union as a democratic state with a solid market economy and an ability to control its internationally recognized borders. To some extent, this has helped Chisinau because it is now assisted by two major Western powers in what domestic elites have defined as a foreign policy priority.

Comparative Analysis of Electricity Prices in the RM and in the Region (Romania, Ukraine)

Comparative Analysis of Electricity Prices in the RM and in the Region (Romania, Ukraine)

Author(s): Corina Gaibu / Language(s): English

Keywords: energy security;

Energy sector is a strategic field for Republic of Moldova Geopolitical situation in the region, the tension between Ukraine and Russia, impose the acceleration of establishing interconnections with Romania, thus ensuring energy security of Republic of Moldova The contract on electrical energy supply to the RM was negotiated and signed in March. The negotiated price has a major impact on country’s economy and directly affects the whole society. Setting the electricity prices excessively high causes extra pressure on the population’s welfare and the monthly bills people pay; while, high dependency on electricity imports from Ukraine and a single generating facility in Transnistria (Steam Electric Power Station ”Moldoveneasca” owned by RAO UES of the Russian Federation) create an energy security vulnerability. Diversifying electrical energy sources through building a connection with Romania allow attaining an acceptable energy security level.

The Republic of Moldova’s European Integration Process - No Longer Targets Adherence

The Republic of Moldova’s European Integration Process - No Longer Targets Adherence

Author(s): Leonid Litră / Language(s): English

Each year, the IDIS „Viitorul” team analyzes the state of Moldova’s European integration process. In our previous Foreign Policy Statewatch analyses, we ascertained that the European integration is irreversible process, we stated the erosion of the viability of a consensus over the European integration process, we defined the circumstances under which EU’s fatigue towards Moldova1 could arise, and we evaluated and offered recommendations on improving and harmonizing the process. Moldova’s new political configuration provides ground for a short evaluation of the trends in Moldova’s approximation to EU.

Finance and Security: The Republic of Moldova in the Regional Context

Finance and Security: The Republic of Moldova in the Regional Context

Author(s): Eduard Țugui / Language(s): English

The Republic of Moldova and the International Monetary Fund are to negotiate a new loan program, since the international lender of last resort has sent a list of preconditions to Moldovan government, while the rebels fighting against Ukrainian governmental forces have hoisted their flag in the centre of Tiraspol. Ukraine has dug anti-tank trenches along the Transnistrian segment of the Moldovan border and tightened control at all checkpoints, while the Moldovan government provides guarantees for the “bad loans” of the three commercial banks and has to manage what is called a stagflation which combines economic stagnation and high inflation. Finance and security, whose eternal relation has shaped; over time; the international political economy, are very current issues in the Europe of 2015 and they are becoming crucial for the Republic of Moldova as well, where public finances have reached a deadlock and the Tiraspol administration is negotiating from a position of power within the sub-format “1 + 1”.

Quo Vadis, Moldova?

Quo Vadis, Moldova?

Author(s): Veaceslav Berbeca / Language(s): English

The year 2019 proved to be full of political events that generated hope but also confused the citizens of the Republic of Moldova and international observers. The formation of the situational coalition in June between the ACUM bloc and the PSRM signaled the beginning of some changes in the administration of state affairs. Attentive observers of the political processes were somewhat circumspect about the possibility of sincere collaboration between the two parties. However, few would have expected the honeymoon to stop suddenly, without creating the conditions for irreversible changes. Such political maneuvers affecting the welfare of the citizens inoculate even more deeply to the public opinion the idea that Moldovan politicians are incurable and incorrigible when it comes to promoting political and economic reforms.

From Bratislava to Bratislava – The Regulation Process of the Transnistrian Conflict is sliding back to Years 2002-2003

From Bratislava to Bratislava – The Regulation Process of the Transnistrian Conflict is sliding back to Years 2002-2003

Author(s): Ion Tăbârță / Language(s): English

Keywords: Transnistria;

The accession to the government of PSRM, a political party with strong pro-Russian tendencies and which has openly stated more than once in the past that it is in the favor of achieving the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict through the federalization of the Republic of Moldova, has increased Russia’s influence in the political processes taking place in Chisinau. At the same time, the PSRM government, concentrated around President Igor Dodon, generated suppositions that in the near future we could expect the signing of a document which would regulate the Transnistrian conflict. These assumptions were fueled by the failed attempts to sign the Protocol of in the “5+2” format reunion on October 9-10, 2019 in Bratislava, and at the 8th Conference on strengthening the confidence in the Transnistrian conflict settlement process which took place in Munich on November 4-5, 2019. The belief the public space it was that the draft protocol could lead to the de fact federalization of the Republic of Moldova. The rumor in the political backstage was that the protocol was blocked by former Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, Vasile Șova, but also by the uncompromising position of not accepting this protocol and which was assumed by the former Prime Minister of the government, Maia Sandu.

The Reconfiguration of the Parliament in terms of Relations between the Parliamentary Majority and Minority

The Reconfiguration of the Parliament in terms of Relations between the Parliamentary Majority and Minority

Author(s): Sergiu Lipcean / Language(s): English

Keywords: government-building in Moldova;

The dismissal of the Sandu government by PSRM and the PDM has put an end to the extended honeymoon manifested in the collaboration in the parliament between the ACUM bloc and PSRM. In spite of the aligned vote of the Socialists and Democrats, several representatives of both parties have expressed the idea that the common vote does not imply the formation of a government coalition. However, the credibility of such statements is questionable due to the way in which the redistribution leadership positions at the level of parliamentary committees took place, namely by replacing the representatives of the ACUM bloc with the representatives of the two named parties. This reapportionment has profound implications for the reconfiguration of the balance of power both at the level of the standing committees and in relation to the activity of the Parliament in general.

Policy Brief 1: Trends in 2007 (Electronic Monthly Publication, edited by IDIS Viitorul)

Policy Brief: 1 Trends in 2007 (Electronic Monthly Publication, edited by IDIS Viitorul)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The ‘liberalisation’ initiatives launched recently by the topleadership of the country (i.e. capital amnisty, fiscal amnesty and zero-rate for income tax of the legal persons) found the Moldovan society largely unprepared. The explanation which is provided by the national authorities to justify the reason for initiating a set of such radical proposals is quite vague yet and suggests an unfortunate lack of clarity on the expected impact as well as collateral effects which may follow the initiatives. Even the most obvious matters, stated by governmental officials on public broadcasted programs or in front of the legislative assembly, resemble more a series of exprompt moves, made in the absence of credible and systematic evaluations, which is sad because the initiatives may have huge consequences for the future of this country and implicate significant losses to the state budget and national economy overall. This Policy Brief attempts to assess and forecast some of its direct implications and proposals.

Financing pre-university Education: The Costs of a Great Illusion

Finanţarea Educaţiei preuniversitare: costurile unei mari iluzii

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: financing education;

The aim of the SPENDING FOR EDUCATION IN REPUBLIC of MOLDOVA is to assess the current statute of the financing of pre-university education, highlight the main setbacks of the system and track relevant indicators to the educational services provided to the population. This study emerged from in partnership with the Brookings Institution. // The Study combines several kinds of data: official statistics provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, regular monitoring indicators of the Ministry of Education, as well as data collected from the schools of Moldova, through a comprehensive Survey, implemented during the months of February – April 2008. The analysis considers in great details the institutional dynamics of the pre-university education in the last decade, in correlation with the overall demographic and social-economic trends of the country. // Budgetary spending for the pre-university schools reflect a growing concern for the effective use of resources from the public budget on education in Moldova. Beyound the obvious demand to accelerate the reformation of the current system of public education, which implies an overwhelming agenda of decentralization, territorial relocation, rationalization, privatization and other policies that shall improve the current way of spending for compulsory education in Moldova, we aimed to provide specific policy recommendations how to improve the functioning of the system.

The political factor of Financing Infrastructure on Local Level

Factorul politic al finanţării infrastructurii la nivel local

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: public finances; municipality budget;

The local finance system operates in the Republic of Moldova in the conditions of a permanent deficit of resources. Our country is still monitored by the Council of Europe on the subject of local autonomy. Although the Republic of Moldova has made some progress in adopting legislation on decentralization (December 2006), the situation has not changed at all in terms of local funding. The total volume of local revenues, consisting exclusively of local taxes, provided by current legislation, represents approx. 110 million lei, of which 70 million are collected in Chisinau and Balti, and 40 million are collected in the rest of Moldova. According to the legislation existing on 15.03.08, these are the only revenues, which can be managed autonomously, independently, without the interference and control of hierarchically superior authorities. For comparison, these revenues represent about 49% of the operational budget of the Customs Service. Comparing the revenues of the 898 administrative-territorial authorities with the budget allocated in 2008 for the Prosecutor's Office of the Republic of Moldova, we will see that the latter is financed 2 times more than the budgets of all localities in the Republic of Moldova, except Chisinau and Balti. We mention that, in addition to local revenues, local authorities benefit from several types of transfers from the central budget: broken down revenues, investment allowances, special purpose transfers. They represent over 98% of the volume of all local budgets. The paradox of the current local finance system is not related to the fact that there is no money in this system, but to the way the allocated money is distributed in the system. The objective of this Policy Brief is to analyze the dynamics of budget allocations in the last 4 years, in order to determine the legitimacy, effects and results of the operation of this system.

Transparency of the Decision-Making Process within the local Public Administration Authorities. Difficulties and Solutions

Transparența procesului decizional în cadrul autorităților administrației publice locale. Dificultăți și soluții

Author(s): Viorel Pîrvan / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: local administration; transparency;

In the context of the local public administration of the Republic of Moldova, the process of improving the act of local government, according to the principles enunciated in Law no. 436 of 28.12.2006, provides for the consultation and direct involvement of citizens in the decision-making process. According to a report monitoring the access to information and transparency in the decision-making process, carried out in 2010, the situation at local level shows a low degree of knowledge and implementation of legislation in the field. Thus, only 32.1% of the municipal / district / local authorities / institutions provide citizens with the right of access to public information. At the same time, regarding the level of knowledge of the law on transparency in the decision-making process, 49.7% of local public authorities and 40.7% of civil society answered that they know “few” and “very few”, and 36.4% from local public authorities and 11.8% of civil society “know nothing” or did not know what to answer. Through this paper we set out to investigate the extent to which local public authorities apply the provisions of the law on transparency in decision-making process no. 239 din 13.11.2008. This law is particularly important, because it regulates the dialogue and collaboration between the public sector and the recipients of the regulations elaborated by it, respectively, citizens, non-governmental organizations, business associations, etc.

Constitutional landmarks for overcoming the political crisis in the Republic of Moldova: Theoretical arguments and practical solutions

Repere constituţionale pentru depăşirea crizei politice în Republica Moldova: Argumente teoretice şi Soluţii practice

Author(s): Victor Popa / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: constitutional conflicts;

This study is an attempt to signal a situation of constitutional conflict, manifested by the accumulation of incompatibilities of holding political and administrative mandates, in the context of the crisis after the elections of April 5, 2009. Reactions to events and legal nihilism of some high state officials have produced effects, which the Constitutional Court, together with the political class of the Republic of Moldova, must resolve, at this moment, in order not to turn the mistakes committed, rigorously analyzed in the following, into a dramatic episode, denial, or even suspension of the Constitution. // In particular, this study shows the existence of effects produced by the adoption of unconstitutional decisions, including related to the election of the President of the Parliament, and at the same time, the retention of the position of President of the Republic of Moldova by one and the same person, coming in flagrant contradiction. with the provisions of the Constitution and the law on the status of the deputy in the Parliament. In particular, the author considers it opportune to annul the decision to validate the elections for the position of President of the Republic of Moldova on 3.06.09 and the second round in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution and the Law on the procedure for electing the President of the Republic of Moldova.

Value Added Tax Refund: Analyzes and Solutions

Restituirea Taxei pe Valoare adăugată: Analize şi Soluţii

Author(s): Corina Gaibu / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: taxation; value added taxes;

Value added tax is the indirect tax on which the greatest attention is focused, both by the state and by private companies. Its administration is a difficult, painstaking thing, because it requires a lot of time and effort from both taxpayers and the tax service (reports, controls, verifications). The value added tax constitutes over 70% of the fiscal revenues from the state budget. Any deviation in VAT collection has a direct impact on the financing of budget expenditures. The table below shows the importance of value added tax, its share compared to other taxes and duties collected from taxpayers. In the first half of 2009 alone, out of the total of 4 billion lei in taxes and duties levied at customs, value added tax is 2.9 billion, ie over 70% of the total. At the same time, the influence of the crisis on economic activity is being felt. In 2009, compared to the same period of 2008, about 30% less taxes and fees were collected, and respectively in the same proportion the amount of value added tax was modified. The decrease in imports has largely led to a decrease in the value added tax levied at customs.