Publisher: IDIS VIITORUL Institutul pentru Dezoltare şi Initiative Sociale

Economic Statewatch

Economic Statewatch

Frequency: 4 issues / Country: Moldova, Republic of

The IDIS Viitorul has been founded in June 1993, in Chisinau, Republic of Moldova. It is a non-governmental, not-for-profit organization, and it is not linked to any political party. The IDIS’s mission is to contribute to the growth of independent thinking environment in Moldova and in other emerging democracies; to contribute to the strengthening of the local and regional governments; to assist the expansion of the civil society in which the citizens act together to express their own interests, to exchange information and to strive for mutual goals and influence government. Consistent with this mission, the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) ‘Viitorul’ is forging several linkages between the academic and policy-making environments, generating policy analysis and recommendations for various areas of public interest, creating and disseminating of the best practices, good governance, and economic analysis. The Center for Economic Policy (CEP), running regular economic analysis and forecast, taxation and tax awareness of citizens, poverty reduction and other social policies. Since 2004, the CEP has initiated the publication of the Economic Statewatch (Quarterly Economic Predictor), but has published several other position papers and policy briefs in informal economy, economic policy and investments, which are disseminated among policy makers and opinion leaders. The CEP is consistently gaining a wide recognition among its target beneficiaries: private and corporate organizations, foreign donor-organizations, think tank community, banks and private sector, political parties, etc. Since recently, it has been redesigned to monitor the PRSP implementation, and cooperate with SIDA and UNPD. It has gained recently a membership in EPIN, and will strive to increase its policy impact on the public authorities and business community. Our Donors: ---------------------------------------------- In the last years, IDIS has received financial support and encouragement from a number of leading international institutions, including: • Eurasia Foundation (USA) • National Endowment for Democracy (USA) • Westminster Foundation for Democracy (UK) • Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, MATRA • Local Government and Public Services Initiative, affiliated to the OSI • SPAI/Stability Pact • SOROS Foundation • UNDP/UNOPS • EU TACIS Programme Contacts: ---------------------------------------------- Dr. Igor Munteanu, Executive Director Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) ‘Viitorul’ Chisinau, 10/1, Iacob Hincu Str., 2009 MD, Republic of Moldova Tel/fax: (+ 373/22) 21 09 32; 21.36.32; 22.71.30 E-mail: idis_viitorul@mdl.net Web: www.moldova.org

The Republic of Moldova and Ukraine – A Package Approach for the EU or Each with its Own Way?

The Republic of Moldova and Ukraine – A Package Approach for the EU or Each with its Own Way?

Author(s): Veaceslav Berbeca / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova EU-Accession; Ukraine EU-Accession;

The Republic of Moldova and Ukraine are two states expressing their desire to join the European Union. The efforts of both states to rally to the European values have often been ambiguous and blurred. As a result, these two countries’ rank is probably, in the category of “lagging behind” states in terms of their chances to join the European Union. Otherwise, both neighboring states possibly represent the last potential candidates to join the European Union. But the date of joining is directly linked to economic and political performances of the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.

False Economic Transformation of the Republic of Moldova: Why is the Country’s Economy stagnant since 1994?

False Economic Transformation of the Republic of Moldova: Why is the Country’s Economy stagnant since 1994?

Author(s): Viorel Gârbu / Language(s): English

Keywords: Molodva economic stagnation;

Moldova’s Foreign Policy Statewatch represents a series of brief analyses, written by local and foreign experts, dedicated to the most topical subjects related to the foreign policy of Moldova, major developments in the Black Sea Region, cooperation with international organizations and peace building activities in the region. It aims to create a common platform for discussion and to bring together experts, commentators, officials and diplomats who are concerned with the perspectives of European Integration of Moldova. It is also pertaining to offer to Moldova’s diplomats and analysts a valuable tribune for debating the most interesting and controversial points of view that could help Moldova to find its path to EU.

Moldova - Criticized by Fule and Encouraged by Rogozin. Quo vadis?

Moldova - Criticized by Fule and Encouraged by Rogozin. Quo vadis?

Author(s): Marian Cepoi / Language(s): English

After the visit and exorbitant performance of the Special Envoy of Russia Dmitry Rogozin in Chisinau, the Moldovan society was awaiting a much stronger support response from the European Union by means of Commissioner Stefan Fule’s visit. He told politicians that Moldova has chances to remain the success story of the Eastern Partnership and the Summit in Vilnius in November will be a success. Although it is the message that the political class in Chisinau was expecting it cannot be compared with the glory blow of Russia on 9 May in Chisinau. Fule’s visit does not clearly emphasize that between Russia and the EU there is a dispute for Moldova but rather gives the impression that the geopolitical choice is ours.

The Competition of Offers in Gagauzia

The Competition of Offers in Gagauzia

Author(s): Veaceslav Berbeca / Language(s): English

The Moldovan central authorities’ relationship with the Gagauz local authorities has been rather tense throughout the last year. This situation has taken many forms: from Gagauz politicians’ requests to provide more funds for the region or adapt national legislation to the law on the special status of ATU Gagauzia, to ensure good functioning of autonomy to overt challenges such as the organization of referendums in the Gagauz region on 2 February 2014 on the foreign policy vector of the state and the right to external self-determination of the Gagauz autonomy if the Republic of Moldova loses its independence. The strained relations between Chisinau and Comrat were especially evident during the negotiation, initialing and signing of the Association Agreement and the Free Trade Agreement between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union. Anti-European messages and actions by the Gagauz leaders evidence the presence of a foreign factor in the conflict between central and Gagauz autonomy authorities.

The price of the Republic of Moldova Europeanization – Recalibration of Moldovan-Russian Relations

The price of the Republic of Moldova Europeanization – Recalibration of Moldovan-Russian Relations

Author(s): Ion Tăbârţă / Language(s): English

Keywords: between EU and Russia;

The signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union on 27 June 2014 is the Republic of Moldova’s greatest achievement since gaining independence. The signing of this document is a chance for the Republic of Moldova to get out of Europe’s “grey zone” and join the group of civilized countries. The Association Agreement between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union will bring the relations between our state and the EU to a qualitatively new, updated and adjusted level and allow the Republic of Moldova to move past the post-Soviet period.

The Impact of the National Currency Exchange Rate on Farmers in the Republic of Moldova

Impactul ratei de schimb a monedei naţionale (MDL) asupra fermierilor din Republica Moldova

Author(s): Victor Parlicov,Veaceslav Ioniţă / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: agriclture in Moldova; land price; local currency;

The main purpose of this study was to describe and estimate in value the impact that the appreciation of the national currency has had in recent years in relation to the currencies of the main international partners in terms of trade in agricultural products. For the analysis of currency fluctuations, a weighted currency basket composed of the Euro, the US dollar, the Ukrainian hryvnia, the Russian ruble and the Romanian leu was taken as reference. We would like to mention that this value is an estimate and that there are a multitude of other factors that affect agricultural producers in proportions even greater than these, including restrictions on exports of agricultural products, Moldova's inability to protect the interests of local producers in export markets, issues related to VAT refund, etc.

Gagauzia Autonomy: Political Blackmail or in Search of New Contractual Relations between Comrat and Chisinau

Gagauzia Autonomy: Political Blackmail or in Search of New Contractual Relations between Comrat and Chisinau

Author(s): Veaceslav Berbeca / Language(s): English

Keywords: federalism;

The special status of Gagauzia provides the autonomous territorial unit with large self-government competence. Thus, the Popular Assembly is the Gagauzia representative authority, which has been vested with the right to adopt normative acts within the limits of its competence. Also the population of this region elects for a 4-year period a Governor to whom all the Gagauzia public authorities are subordinated. Mention should be made that several important state positions in the territorial unit are nominated by the Popular Assembly, which is investing the local legislative body with an important role as far as the personnel policy of Gagauzia is concerned. Even if more than 18 years have passed since this political compromise between the centre and the Gagauz region was reached, periodically, conflict signs between the Chisinau and Comrat authorities emerge on different occasions. Over the last year though, the Gagauz political elite has expressed certain dissatisfaction which reminds about the events from the early ‘90s. A conflict is also made obvious between the most important institutions of the autonomy – the Popular Assembly and the Gagauzia Governor (Bashkan). The political fight within the autonomy has direct impact on the relations between the Comrat political elite and the central authorities. This interconnection complicates the situation in the autonomy as well as the relations between the region and the center. The modality of electing these two important institutions from Gagauzia- the Popular Assembly and the Governor (Bashkan) - is a permanent conflict element between the legislative and executive authorities in the situation when the majority in the local legislative and the Bashkan do not represent the same political formation. In other words, in contrast to the national legislation where the state president is elected by the Parliament, in the Administrative Territorial Unit (UTA) of Gagauzia, the members of the Popular Assembly and the Governor are elected directly by the population of the three rayons which make the Gagauz Autonomy.

The security issues and negotiations concerning the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict

The security issues and negotiations concerning the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict

Author(s): Eduard Ţugui / Language(s): English

Keywords: Security issues; Transnistrian conflict; Moldova; Romania; Russian support; Military policy;

The military-strategic security issue represents the great unknown in the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. When the negotiation agenda was established in the "5 + 2" format, on April 18, 2012, the security issues were camouflaged in the untouched "basket 3", according to the philosophy of "small steps" which does not allow complex discussions on military security. Recent events in the eastern part of the European continent where Russia and the Euro-Atlantic community are involved in the re-drawing of the European security architecture, Russia's intention to liquidate the expired ammunition stored in Cobasna, the tensions related to the non-signing of the Bratislava Protocol, or the "powerful autonomy" announced by President Igor Dodon for 2020, all of these issues demand an increased attention towards the security regime in the eastern part of the Republic of Moldova.

About barriers and incentives in the trade between Moldova and Transnistria under DCFTA conditions

Despre bariere şi stimulente în schimbul comercial dintre Moldova şi Transnistria în condiţiile ZLSAC

Author(s): Tatiana Lariusin / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: mutual trade in frozen conflict; Moldova-Transnistria;

The creation of a common economic space is preceded by the establishment of a free trade area with the application of a common customs tariff. Moldova and Transnistria participate in regional projects of political, institutional and economic integration that have an opposite vector. Each of the parties shall regulate its relations in the fields of foreign trade and customs in accordance with its own legislation. At the same time, the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria are characterized by small internal market dimensions, limited production factors and insufficient natural resources. These issues impose special requirements on the effectiveness of foreign economic activity and largely determine the general nature of the development of economies on both banks of the Dniester. All these discussions take place in a very difficult regional context. The crisis in Ukraine has generated extensive consultations and various stidoes on the scenarios of the evolution of the situation and the ways of solving the conditions of concurrent integrations in this part of the post-Soviet space. A crucial regional challenge is to avoid "geopolitical ruptures" as well as to create a new platform for cooperation between the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, the EU and the Russian Federation.

Education, Health Care and Medicine on both banks of the Dniester

Образование, здравоо хранение и медицина на обоих берегах Днестра

Author(s): Cornel Ciurea / Language(s): Russian

The discussions of experts from both banks of the Dniester focused on the bilateral issues that exist between Chisinau and Tiraspol in the field of education, health and medicine, and on the possibilities of initiating joint projects. // A serious problem in the relations between the two banks of the Dniester that affects all levels of education is related to the different format of education systems. There are no baccalaureate exams in Transnistria, and pre-university education lasts 11 years (unlike Moldova where young people study for 12 years). Because of this, young people graduating from Moldovan schools in Transnistria with Cyrillic script are forced to study for a year in the Republic of Moldova and only after passing the baccalaureate, they have the right to be enrolled in higher education institutions on the right bank of the Dniester. Compatibility issues also exist at other levels of study - university cycle I and II, doctorate and employment of teachers. In the absence of close control by the Ministry of Education, the exact procedures by which young Transnistrians end up studying at higher education institutions in Moldova or working as teachers are not known. For example, there are known cases when graduates of pedagogical institutions in Transnistria are employed as Romanian language teachers in schools on the right bank, although they have studied Romanian in Cyrillic script.

The Republic of Moldova and the Transnistrian Region: Regional Development and tertiary Cooperation

Республика Молдова и Приднестровье: Региональное развитие и межобщинное Сотрудничество

Author(s): Eduard Ţugui / Language(s): Russian

Keywords: Transnistria; Russia-Moldova relations; separatism; frozen conflict;

The text is based on the discussions of experts from the Republic of Moldova and the Transnistrian region during the round table "Regional development and prospects for interregional cooperation on both banks of the Dniester" on May 16, 2014, held at IDIS "Viitorul" within the project « Stimulating consolidation measures of trust between Chisinau and Tiraspol ». The opinions and conclusions found in the text do not necessarily represent the position of the partner and donor institutions - UNDP and the Romanian Embassy in the Republic of Moldova - or the position of IDIS « Viitorul ». // The purpose of the round table was to identify the existing legal framework and regional development policies in the Republic of Moldova and the Transnistrian region, highlight the needs and obstacles of regional development, as well as formulate recommendations to stimulate cooperation of local and regional public authorities on both sides. The Dniester. Regional development is the main mechanism for reducing the development gaps in contemporary society, in order to ensure economic, social and territorial cohesion. The paradigm that implies the homogeneous development of all regions and regional development policies is gradually articulated within the European Union, with the consolidation and expansion of integration, becoming a model of development for much of the contemporary world. Regional development and European cohesion policy are the mechanism that within the European Union has led to reducing regional development disparities and building the welfare state, while the process of European integration of the Republic of Moldova necessarily involves regional development.

About barriers and incentives in the trade between Moldova and Transnistria under DCFTA conditions

О барьерах и стимулах во взаимной торговле Мол довы и Приднестровья в усло виях DCFTA

Author(s): Tatiana Lariusin / Language(s): Russian

Keywords: mutual trade in frozen conflict; Moldova-Transnistria;

The creation of a common economic space is preceded by the establishment of a free trade area with the application of a common customs tariff. Moldova and Transnistria participate in regional projects of political, institutional and economic integration that have an opposite vector. Each of the parties shall regulate its relations in the fields of foreign trade and customs in accordance with its own legislation. At the same time, the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria are characterized by small internal market dimensions, limited production factors and insufficient natural resources. These issues impose special requirements on the effectiveness of foreign economic activity and largely determine the general nature of the development of economies on both banks of the Dniester. All these discussions take place in a very difficult regional context. The crisis in Ukraine has generated extensive consultations and various stidoes on the scenarios of the evolution of the situation and the ways of solving the conditions of concurrent integrations in this part of the post-Soviet space. A crucial regional challenge is to avoid "geopolitical ruptures" as well as to create a new platform for cooperation between the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, the EU and the Russian Federation.

Transition Issues to International Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards and Norms on both banks of the Dniester River

Probleme de Tranziție la Standardele şi Normele Internaționale în domeniul Sanitar și Fitosanitar pe ambele maluri ale Râului Nistru

Author(s): Tatiana Lariusin,Inna Butucel / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: EU-Moldova Association Agreement; Moldova-Transnistria;

The Association Agreement (AA) between the Republic of Moldova and the EU, signed in 2014, ratified by the parties in 2015, entered into force definitively on January 1, 2016. Economic integration is an important part of this Agreement, and involves the creation of an area of Free Deep and Comprehensive Trade (DCFTA) between Moldova and the EU. // A special feature of this Agreement is the fact that Moldova signed the AA with an unresolved secessionist conflict with the Transnistrian region. In turn, the distinguishing feature of the Transnistrian conflict is the fact that stable trade relations have been established between the two parties to the conflict, wich in the last two years have shown an increasing trend. Due to their small size and dependence on imports of basic factors of production, the economies of Moldova and the Transnistrian region are particularly interested in a development of foreign trade activities and an increase in their trade capacity. The implementation of AA and DCFTA, with technical support from the EU, contributes to institutional modernization, refurbishment and increasing the competitiveness of exports on both banks of the Dniester.

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - Tendencies for the period of May - June 2005

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - Tendencies for the period of May - June 2005

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This monthly Bulletin has as objective to analyze some elements of external, internal policy and the security factors in the Republic of Moldova. To monitor with accuracy the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) ‘Viitorul’ publishes the Political and Security Statewatch Indicators that contribute to a better understanding of the increase and decrease and the direction of the democratic changes in the Republic of Moldova. These variables are published in every issue of the Bulletin and determine the topic of the analyses.

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - The Dynamics of PSS Indicators for the Period June-July, 2005

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - The Dynamics of PSS Indicators for the Period June-July, 2005

Author(s): Ghenadie Mocanu,Timur Onica / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europeanization;

The relatively large bulk of laws adopted on the last hundred meters by the Parliament of Moldova show a new move of solidarity by the political forces of the country. The “Decalogue”, put forward by the parliamentary factions to President Voronin during his last re-election on April 4, brought new hope to the seemingly divided adversaries to establish a lasting truce and solve the anguishing problems of Moldovan politics. The question then raised by the political thinkers was: will the President keep his promises given to the opposition? The question now is: is the truce strong enough to lead to modernization and Europeanization?

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - The Dynamics of PSS Indicators for the Period July-August, 2005

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - The Dynamics of PSS Indicators for the Period July-August, 2005

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The PSS methodology is a synthetic model designed to evaluate the perception of a pool of 10 independent experts on political and security risks in tree areas: Domestic Policy, Foreign Policy and Issues of Special Interest. The PSS monitoring contributes to the identification of potential and effective threats that impact the stability of public institutions and assures the coherence of early warning analyses. The PSS rating should not be considered an absolute indicator. The reason for PSS indicator is to form general ideas. The dynamics of PSS indicators can be found throughout the text of the PSS and reflects the rhythm and the direction of democratic changes occurring in Moldova. To find out more about the methodology, check the addenda.

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-01

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-01

Author(s): Ion Marandici,Dumitru Minzarari / Language(s): English

CONTENT: The eroding of government party increased in local elections from 2007 (by Ion Marandici) // Foreign priorities of Moldova move to the East (by Dumitru Mînzărari) // Policies promoted by government party will worsen foreign dependence (by Dumitru Mînzărari)

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-03

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-03

Author(s): Ion Marandici,Sergiu Panainte,Dumitru Minzarari / Language(s): English

CONTENT: Political Consensus disintegrated before a possible Food Crisis (by Ion Marandici) // The “Invisible Hand” Of The Puppeteer: Who Is Making The Moldovan Foreign Policy? (by Sergiu Panainte) // How Voronin, his team, and Communists’ Party may lose Moldova (by Dumitru Mînzărari)

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-07

POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-07

Author(s): Ion Marandici,Sergiu Panainte / Language(s): English

CONTENT: The result of the 2007 elections: local public administration versus central authorities (by Ion Marandici) // A Retrospective of the 2007: Transition continues as Moldova misses valuable Opportunities” (by Sergiu Panainte) // Major threats to the security of Republic of Moldova: 2007 (by Ion Marandici)