Ensuring the energy security of the Republic of Moldova is one of the main objectives of the authorities in Chisinau. Diversification of natural gas supply sources is considered to be one of the main tools that would contribute significantly to achieving this. Therefore, the construction of the Iasi-Ungheni gas pipeline that will interconnect the gas system of the Republic of Moldova to that of Romania is seen by many as an important step to reduce the state’s dependence on the Russian Federation’s monopoly on gas supplies. The 27 August symbolic launch of the construction of the Iasi-Ungheni gas pipeline with the participation of Prime Ministers of the Republic of Moldova and Romania as well as the European Commissioner for Energy coincided with the visit of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin to Chisinau. Rogozin’s statements on September 2 in which he suggested that Moldova could remain without gas in winter were perceived as threats by the public in the Republic of Moldova.
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Cox & Kwasniewski mission declared that it is unable to persuade the President of Ukraine to eliminate problems that would allow Kiev to sign the Association Agreement with the EU. On November 21, the Ukrainian Rada amended in the final reading the law on parliamentary elections and thus met one of the three key requirements that Kiev committed to solve prior to the summit in Vilnius. The other two requirements are related to amending the legislation that would allow prosecution reform and creating a regulatory framework enabling the detainees (read Yulia Tymoshenko) to go abroad for treatment. Although the mission’s mandate was extended until the day of the summit, in the hope that the Ukrainian leadership will review its position, Kwasniewski already stated that they see their mission completed given the regrettable decision of the government in Kiev on 21 November to stop preparations for signing the Association Agreement. The main official argument to waive signing in Vilnius is avoiding a risky situation for the Ukrainian economy and the need to relaunch relations with Russia. However, it seems that beyond these arguments there is a range of problems that are not found in the official statements.
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Recently, Vladimir Putin revealed his geopolitical plans for the future. They were somehow felt in his previous speeches but were not constant, however, now his intentions are clearly stated. Moreover, Russia’s geopolitical “appetite” has increased. If one has previously talked about Customs Union Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan and possibly Ukraine (if one succeeds with its inclusion), now one adds also other countries from Central Asia, going towards creation of the Eurasian Union.
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Moldova’s Foreign Policy Statewatch represents a series of brief analyses, written by local and foreign experts, dedicated to the most topical subjects related to the foreign policy of Moldova, major developments in the Black Sea Region, cooperation with international organizations and peace building activities in the region. It aims to create a common platform for discussion and to bring together experts, commentators, officials and diplomats who are concerned with the perspectives of European Integration of Moldova. It is also pertaining to offer to Moldova’s diplomats and analysts a valuable tribune for debating the most interesting and controversial points of view that could help Moldova to find its path to EU.
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The Republic of Moldova and the International Monetary Fund are to negotiate a new loan program, since the international lender of last resort has sent a list of preconditions to Moldovan government, while the rebels fighting against Ukrainian governmental forces have hoisted their flag in the centre of Tiraspol. Ukraine has dug anti-tank trenches along the Transnistrian segment of the Moldovan border and tightened control at all checkpoints, while the Moldovan government provides guarantees for the “bad loans” of the three commercial banks and has to manage what is called a stagflation which combines economic stagnation and high inflation. Finance and security, whose eternal relation has shaped; over time; the international political economy, are very current issues in the Europe of 2015 and they are becoming crucial for the Republic of Moldova as well, where public finances have reached a deadlock and the Tiraspol administration is negotiating from a position of power within the sub-format “1 + 1”.
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Although Moldova has benefited from Official Development Assistance (ODA) already for about 16-17 years the impact of it is doubtful. Moldova went from having the highest per-capita income in the Soviet Union to one of the poor countries in Europe.1 The present level of the country’s economic development incites various donor organizations to broaden even more their assistance programs2, but to what extent can ODA influence economic development in Moldova?
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The Republic of Moldova’s political life in 2013 can be divided into two distinct periods: The first internally focused period was marked by the political crisis at the beginning of the leading to the second externally focused period beginning at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius on 28-29 November. The prospect of signing the Association Agreement in Vilnius dominated the internal agenda in the second half of 2013, contributing to the rallying of the Pro-European Coalition and prompted Moldovan diplomacy to act according to the principle of “all-or-nothing”. This approach will be considered successful if Moldova signs the Association Agreement and obtains visa liberalization in 2014. However, it may fail if Russia blocks the country’s association process as happened to Ukraine.
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On 8 February 2011, U.S. Senator Richard Lugar has presented to the Commission for Foreign Affairs of the U.S. Senate a report containing several proposals to unblock the deadlock in negotiations on frozen conflict between Chisinau and Tiraspol. Among recommendations of Senator Lugar, submitted to administration of President Barack Obama, referring to increased support for current pro-western government efforts in Chisinau to solve Transnistrian problem, the report contains a proposal on removing commercial restrictions affecting Republic of Moldova ever since Soviet Union period. It’s Jackson-Vanik Amendment, by which one withdrawn the Soviet Union the possibility to benefit from most favored nation clause.
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Along with the two decades, the matter of signing an inter-governmental agreement between Moldova and Romania provoked many emotional discussions, in Chisinau as well as in Bucharest. Lately, this subject was replaced with another one, regarding the signing of a border agreement. The protraction of these processes is due to linguistic and historical divergences that put into the shade the technical aspects of the Moldovan – Romanian governmental relation, which is highly politicized, in many cases in an exaggerated and useless way. Even if the pure technical aspects of a Moldovan – Romanian treaty must not had put major problems, the Romanian side did not accept the signing of the treaty because of some “details” that it cares about, and Chisinau, particularly during the communist government, tried to introduce in the document a set of political provisions with senseless historical connotations, unacceptable for Bucharest.The last discussions from Chisinau, related to the signing of the agreement regarding the border system emphasize a new important factor that blocks the ratification process – the internal rivalries inside The Alliance for European Integration and the alleged non-constitutional feature of the signing process.
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The Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius was the major European diplomatic event in 2013, even though it did not meet all the Euro-integration expectations of the Eastern Partnership countries or European chancelleries. The European officials’ meeting in the capital of Lithuania did not mean ad litteram another Helsinki 1999, with the European Council confirming the importance of the extension process and the beginning of accession negotiations for Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Bulgaria and Malta. It does not have the significance and prospects of the November 2000Zagreb Summit, when the European Union launched the Stabilization and Association Process in the Western Balkans, but it still brings a new geopolitical reality to the post-Soviet space. The Vilnius Summit emotions are alive in Ukraine, even though the Kiev administration refused to sign the Association Agreement. The new realityis nevertheless important and is a turning point for the Republic of Moldova’s future, which requires equally important steps.
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Historical politics that one talked about in case of Poland and Ukraine was a constant for the foreign policy of Moldova. Unlike two other countries previously mentioned, Moldova has failed to raise this kind of politics to the rank of state policy; it manifested rather erratic and intermittent, being the privilege of opposition and of a minority in governmental vaults. This inability to strongly affirm historical politics at official rank may be explained by the fact that unlike Ukraine and Poland which have always targeted Russia as the “pole of evil”, Moldova has always identified as “bad guys” – Russia and Romania. This balance of competing historic codes, settled in the collective mentality of Moldovan people, resulted in a quiet and retractile foreign policy that did not dare to make outspoken accusations to neighbors of Moldova.
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Violent suppression of protests in Ukraine and use of force have triggered a deep crisis involving all important actors in the region and have resulted in 88 deaths and 700 injured. Even if the apex was the flee of Yanukovych, withdrawal of security forces and release of Yulia Tymoshenko, the situation still remains tense because the protestors’ demands were not fulfilled, while Russophile regions are dissatisfied with the recent developments. The escape of Yanukovych does not resolve the problems Ukraine is facing; it simply puts an end to violence. Ukraine teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, with an interim president, without an institutionalized parliamentary majority. Protests that lasted for three months and started once the Government of Azarov refused to sign the Association Agreement with the EU and, subsequently, turned into anti-Yanukovych protests, were a historical event that was proof of the Ukraining nation welding. Protests outcome cannot be deemed a palace coup, since the Parliament voted by constitutional majority the return to 2004 Constitution and, subsequently, the mechanisms of this Constitution were implemented, which provide for the appointment of parliament speaker as interim president, although the procedure was not duly complied with.
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Two years ago, any political discussion in Moldova or between the Moldova’s Western partners could be summarized to one question: Moldova quo vadis? Moldova was really at the crossroads. But nowadays it is perceived as the main success story within the Eastern Partnership. Indeed, Moldova has had remarkable achievements in the foreign policy since the AIE (Alliance for European Integration) came to power. However, Moldova is not yet a success story but has the potential to become one. The greatest challenge facing Chisinau in terms of its leader status within the Eastern Partnership and of the EU trust is to meet the EU expectations by concrete reforms. What the Republic of Moldova has to offer so far look more like beginnings of reforms than durable and consolidated reforms. But when the gap between the foreign policy successes and the modest progresses in the internal changes becomes too large, Moldova’s image as a success story can burst like a soap bubble. This risk is not inevitable, but it still exists. Both Ukraine and Georgia have passed through this experience of bubble bursts.
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Activity of diplomatic missions of the Republic of Moldova is inevitable in the process of coordinating migration flows and maintaining links with Moldovan diaspora. Moldova Embassy and Consulate represent an essential bridge to homeland. In general, embassy serves Moldovan citizens legally residing in those countries, whereas Consulate in parallel meets the consular needs and can also get in touch with those who are staying illegally in that particular country. The Community of Moldovans in Italy is one of the few that relatively managed to consolidate in a whole, so we can talk about a Moldovan diaspora. The difficulties faced by our citizens in the peninsula lies in the lack of information about their status of immigrant, incognizance of their rights and authorities where they can address to improve their situation.
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Public procurement (PP) in the Republic of Moldova is currently facing complex problems, which according to the EBRD assessment (2011) determine a low level of compliance with the institutional framework and a medium level of compliance of PP legal framework of the Republic of Moldova with the European standards. In terms of PP, the most pronounced deficiencies are seen in the pre-tendering phase (low level of compliance), the other two phases (tendering and post-tendering) have a medium compliance.Implementation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement provisions on PP is both a solution and a prerequisite for overcoming the gaps and obstacles of the PP system in the Republic of Moldova.The main goal is the effective, reciprocal and gradual opening of PP markets of the Republic of Moldova and the European Union. The Republic of Moldova will have to make considerable efforts in three directions: (i) the gradual harmonization of the Republic of Moldova PP legislation with the acquis communautaire on PP; (ii) institutional reform in PP area; (iii) establishing an efficient PP system based on regulatory principles applied in the EU.
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IDIS „Viitorul” has consistently followed the evolution of the public and Moldovan elites’ opinion related to Moldova’s European integration processes. In two bulletins published in 2011 and 2012, “European integration of Moldova – is there still a national consensus?” by Leonid Litra and “Consequences of the disappearance of the national consensus on European integration” by Cornel Ciurea, we drew attention to some bizarre phenomena in the foreign policy promoted by the current government and the public support to these policies: 1) the support of the European idea is continuously decreasing and is paradoxically lower than during the communist governance in 2005 – 2009; 2) the current government promotes European Union association in an unfavorable context (unlike the accession of new states to the EU, which enjoyed full support of the population), which increases the risks associated to the process; 3) the European agenda is promoted under these conditions within a narrow circle of people, gradually becoming a group affair; 4) the criticism of integration processes by the opposition is confusing, focusing more on a Europeanism deficits rather than on the demolition of European idea (the Europeans are accused of failing to promote their own ideas in the fight against corruption, free market and enlargement). All these tendencies make the European integration of the Republic of Moldova increasingly unpopular. At the same time they take place with a grimness and absence of clear alternatives. Public officials prefer to characterize this process as having an irreversible character, but a more accurate term would be an inertial course / coasting, due to the lack of sufficiently strong forces that could obstruct this process.
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The problem of Moldova’s geopolitical identity continues to be, after 20 years of independence, a topic still open for Moldovan society. This situation can be explained by the polarization of Moldovan society that often has been divided by geopolitical preferences of the citizens of this state. Polarization phenomenon was intentionally powered on different occasions by certain political parties invoking false threats to obtain political dividends from parliamentary elections. Attitude of ethnic minorities towards political issues and international institutions is an important element in influencing foreign policy of Moldova. In other words, in most cases, political parties articulate their policies and their implementation tools based on voters’ preferences.
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Internationalization means relating the Transnistrian conflict with the international security context and the European course of the Republic of Moldova, as well as the commitment of external partners to support the Moldovan development strategic démarche. The “5+2” format negotiations are determined by the new European geopolitical realities and fall under the perspective of Transnistrian conflict internationalization. European integration and related negotiations of the Republic of Moldova together with the new realities of continental security, including NATO missile defense shield have revived the negotiations on the Transnistrian conflict settlement. The official resumption of “5 +2” negotiations in autumn 2011, along with the reopening of dialogue between Chisinau and Tiraspol, opened up the prospect of change in the eastern part of the Republic of Moldova for reintegration of the country. But if negotiations for European integration show an increasing trend, the realities in the negotiations on the Transnistrian conflict settlement are quite different. Two years after their start the situation became tense in the Security Zone, Tiraspol administration actions attempt to obstruct the European integration of the Republic of Moldova and Russia still has plans to create a military base on the left bank. All these provide proof for the unsustainability of the current negotiations framework and, consequently, require rethinking of the internationalization of the Transnistrian conflict settlement, in order to ensure the territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova.
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