Publisher: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych

European Union - Great Britain Relationship After Potential Brexit

Relacje Unia Europejska – Wielka Brytania po ewentualnym Brexicie. Stanowiska Niemiec, Francji, Włoch, Hiszpanii i Polski

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: European Union; Brexit; Germany; France; Poland; Italy; Spain

W obliczu niepewnego wyniku brytyjskiego referendum Unia Europejska powinna przygotować się na ułożenie swoich relacji z Wielką Brytanią na nowo już jako z państwem nieczłonkowskim. Ewentualna nowa forma tych relacji będzie efektem żmudnych negocjacji, zależnym od wypadkowej interesów gospodarczych i politycznych krajów członkowskich – przede wszystkim największych, czyli Niemiec, Francji, Włoch, Hiszpanii oraz Polski. To wokół preferowanych przez nie rozwiązań będą budowały się koalicje, w skład których wejdą mniejsze państwa członkowskie. Raport PISM przedstawia możliwe preferencje największych państw w przyszłych stosunkach z Wielką Brytanią i prognozuje, jakie rozwiązania są najbardziej prawdopodobne.

V4 Goes Global: Exploring Opportunities and Obstacles in the Visegrad Countries’ Cooperation with Brazil, India, China and South Africa

V4 Goes Global: Exploring Opportunities and Obstacles in the Visegrad Countries’ Cooperation with Brazil, India, China and South Africa

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: V4;Visegrad 4; Visegrad Group; Brazil; India; China; South Africa

Over the last few years, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia—comprising the Visegrad Group (V4)—have been developing the global dimension of their foreign policy and exploring economic opportunities in non-European markets. The financial and economic crisis in the EU, coupled with the strong growth in emerging economies, made diversification of exports a more attractive option than before. After two decades of internal transformation and a focus on Euro-Atlantic integration, the Visegrad countries also became more capable and more interested in looking for new partners beyond Europe and rebuilding old relationships that received less attention after 1989.

The Future of the EU-AKP Partnership after 2020. Polish Perspective

Przyszłość partnerstwa UE–AKP po 2020 roku. Perspektywa Polski

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: UE; AKP; international cooperation

W roku 2020 kończy się obowiązywanie umowy z Kotonu o partnerstwie między UE a grupą Afryki, Karaibów i Pacyfiku (AKP). W przeddzień rozpoczęcia negocjacji w ramach Unii Europejskiej na temat przyszłości relacji z 78 państwami AKP przedstawiamy raport PISM prezentujący główne założenia, cele i osiągnięcia obowiązującego porozumienia. Autorzy kreślą też możliwe scenariusze rozwoju partnerstwa po 2020 r. i opisują obecny stan debaty na ten temat w Europie, w tym wstępne stanowiska największych krajów Unii. Także w Polsce, która po raz pierwszy będzie miała wpływ na kształtowanie polityki UE w tym zakresie, potrzebna jest debata o roli krajów AKP w polityce zagranicznej.

EU Communication Policy in Its Neighbourhood in Light of Third-Party Propaganda

EU Communication Policy in Its Neighbourhood in Light of Third-Party Propaganda

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian propaganda; EU; Baltic States; EU Communication Policy

Due to mounting Russian propaganda in the eastern neighbourhood and in the Baltic states, the EU set up a task force (East StratCom) in September to counter stereotypes about the Union disseminated by the Moscow apparatus. This is a step in the right direction, but a drop in the ocean of needs. The Union still allocates sparse resources to support independent media operating in Russian and in local languages. EU delegations face staff shortages in communication units, especially those covering social media, while the budgets of those units remain small in comparison to the countries covered by enlargement policy. This report examines the limitations of EU communication in the neighbourhood and draws on the experience of EU delegations to provide recommendations for building an image of the Union understandable to ordinary people.

Uncontrolled Migration to the European Union: Implications for Poland

Niekontrolowane migracje do Unii Europejskiej – implikacje dla Polski

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Migrations; refugees; European Union

For decades the debate about migration has been reoccurring cyclically in Western Europe. In Poland, it is the first time since the transition in 1989 that migration and refugee policy has become a topic of political and public debate. Having joined the EU and North-Atlantic structures not only has Poland made a civilisational leap but also ensured stability and welfare for the society. By doing so it has become part of the richer “North”, which for more than half a century now has been attracting people from the “South”, from regions of conflict and poverty. Even if today Poland is not a destination of mass migration, with a high degree of probability the richer the country gets the more foreigners it will attract, both from poorer countries of similar cultural background and from the poorest and most destabilised regions of different cultures. This process is new and unfamiliar, so it can bring both risks and opportunities. PISM Report “Uncontrolled Migration to the European Union: Implications for Poland” sets out to explain the very phenomenon of uncontrolled migration to the EU in recent years from the Middle East, Asia, Africa, the Western Balkans and Ukraine. The authors also analyse the political and institutional results that this process yields in the European Union and contextualise uncontrolled migration by assessing its connectedness with the level of terrorist threat and with strategic socio-economic gains that a proper handling of migration brings.

Regional Diplomacy. Example of the Greater Poland Region

Dyplomacja samorządowa. Przykład Wielkopolski

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): Polish

Wielkopolska region remains one of the most active in international contacts, with over 63% of local government bodies cooperating with foreign partners and another 19% planning to launch international cooperation in the near future. German local governments hold a special place among foreign partners, as nearly three-fourths of Wielkopolska’s local authorities cooperate with their German counterparts. The decline in the number of partners from Western Europe is accompanied by more intensive contacts with local governments from the neighboring countries and Hungary, and enhanced cooperation with Eastern Partnership and Asian countries, especially with China, is a likely prospect.

Russia under Sanctions: Assessing the Damage, Scrutinising Adaptation and Evasion

Russia under Sanctions: Assessing the Damage, Scrutinising Adaptation and Evasion

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Sanctions; EU; economy under sanctions

The sanctions are not about democracy promotion in Russia, rather they aim to give a chance for a deeper democracy to take root and thrive in Ukraine, in tune with the popular demands expressed in 2013-2014. The sanctions do not seek to weaken Russia per se. Their reversibility shows that the main goal is to help Ukrainian statehood survive in the context of Russia’s military aggression. As the West has ruled out direct use of lethal means to protect Ukraine, the sanctions came to represent an efficient, low-cost tool to shelter Ukraine and constrain Russia’s power. It was pivotal that the West responded as it did in 2014. Had it delayed, the Russian aggression, unopposed, would have threatened not only Ukraine’s existence but some of its neighbours as well. In this case, the West would have been forced to design a response anyway, although one ultimately riskier and costlier.

International Aid for Ukraine. Chances for Polish companies and organisations

Międzynarodowa pomoc dla Ukrainy. Szanse dla polskich firm i organizacji

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Piotr Kościński / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: development aid; Ukraine; aid; development cooperation

The Ukrainian transformation triggered by the Maidan revolution has boosted development assistance for Ukraine offered by international and bilateral donors, including Poland. This opens more extensive funding opportunities for development projects and investments to Polish companies and organisations, but so far Polish entities have not seized the opportunities available. This publication presents the engagement of key donors in Ukraine and indicates how Polish companies and NGOs can launch new cooperation projects, taking advantage of additional financial resources to support the modernisation and development of Poland’s eastern neighbour.

The Contribution of Private Sector in Multilateral Development Aid. Chances for Poland

Udział sektora prywatnego w wielostronnej pomocy rozwojowej. Szanse dla Polski

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: development aid; aid

While multilateral development assistance offers vast business opportunities for European companies, Polish firms have so far been playing a marginal role on this market due in part to limited awareness of the existing opportunities. Hence the report describes the activities and procurement systems of the major international organisations: the European Union, the World Bank and the United Nations, offering case studies of countries that take active part in development projects outside Europe and providing recommendations for Polish firms on how to be more active and successful in this segment of the global market.

Anti-corruption in Moldova and Ukraine: A V4 Handbook of Best Practices

Anti-corruption in Moldova and Ukraine: A V4 Handbook of Best Practices

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: corruption; Moldova; Ukraine; Visegrad Group

Corruption is the most oft-cited obstacle in relations between the EU and two of its eastern partners, Moldova and Ukraine. Seeping through public and private exchanges alike, systemic corruption impedes sectoral reforms—a crucial element of modernisation. The handbook offers concrete case studies from the Visegrad countries’ anti-corruption policy tracks and proposes solutions on how Moldova and Ukraine can best capitalise on the EU’s expertise, financial assistance and political momentum in anti-corruption reforms to minimise risk and optimise success.

Is Russia Irreplaceable? Alternative Markets for Polish Export

Rosja nie do zastąpienia? Alternatywne rynki dla polskiego eksportu

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: economy; Poland; Eastern Europe; economic policy; economics; Russia;

Among non-EU states, Russia is Poland’s most important trade partner. However, following Russian involvement the Ukrainian conflict, since the beginning of 2014, a growing number of obstacles have prevented access to the Russian market for exporters from Poland and other EU countries. For Polish companies, lack of a Russian export market can cause serious financial losses, threatening their stability. But in crisis, comes opportunity. Stalled economic relations with Russia should be an incentive for Polish firms do diversify their export destinations. One particularly appealing alternative for Polish goods is the rapidly developing market of non-European countries

Local Government Diplomacy: Effectiveness and Prospects

Dyplomacja samorządowa. Efektywność i perspektywy rozwoju

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: local government; diplomacy; domestic policy; Poland

Local government diplomacy is increasingly becoming a significant tool for local development and an instrument of foreign policy. This is among the conclusions of the PISM report “Dyplomacja samorządowa. Efektywność i perspektywy rozwoju” [Local Government Diplomacy: Effectiveness and Prospects], released in the “Year of Self-Government”, which commemorates the 25th anniversary of local government reform in the country. Polish democratic efforts on the local level and the ability to use European funds have become a form of export product. Local government professionalism generates pragmatism in foreign relations, corresponding to a decrease in the number of random contacts. Local governments in Poland withdraw from agreements that do not result in benefits. Such cooperation now must serve a particular purpose that may translate into concrete actions and, in many cases, is treated as a long-term investment. Modern local government can also support such important foreign policy goals as the planned reforms in Ukraine. How so? Find out in PISM’s latest publication.

Nuclear Energy in Poland

Nuclear Energy in Poland

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: nuclear energy; Poland

Discussions of the rationale for building a nuclear power plant in Poland have a long history. But now is the time when the Polish Nuclear Energy Programme is entering a decisive stage, with nuclear technology incorporated into the country’s energy policy. The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) therefore deems it proper and timely to support a debate about the benefits and risks of civil use of nuclear energy, drawing on the experiences gained in this field by other European states. The aim of the present report is to formulate conclusions and recommendations for Poland, proceeding from a comparative analysis of nuclear energy ventures in other Members States of the European Union. Crowning the research project “Nuclear Energy in Poland: Balance Sheet and Future Outlook,” carried out at the PISM, the report also covers findings of public opinion research, both quantitative and qualitative, taken by the PISM (between April and June 2014) to establish the Polish public’s attitudes towards nuclear energy.Today, with the Polish Nuclear Energy Programme formally adopted by the government (January 2014), it is high time to shift the focus from “whether” to “how” nuclear power can be put to the best use possible.

India in the Reform Process: Opportunities for Poland

Indie w procesie reform: szanse dla Polski

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: India; emerging power; India’s growing influence; global economy; global politics; military power; democracy;

Indie są dziś jednym ze wschodzących mocarstw, które będą wywierały rosnący wpływ na globalną gospodarkę i politykę. To siódmy największy kraj na świecie pod względem terytorium i drugi pod względem liczby mieszkańców (ponad 1,3 mld). To też siódma gospodarka w wartościach bezwzględnych i trzecia pod względem parytetu siły nabywczej (purchasing power parity, PPP). Z tempem wzrostu PKB powyżej 7% w 2016 r., rozwijała się najszybciej wśród państw G20, szybciej niż Chiny. To też potęga militarna, kraj mający broń jądrową, drugą największą armię i będący głównym na świecie importerem uzbrojenia. To w końcu największa ludnościowo demokracja świata.

The Subnational Dimension of EU-China Relations

The Subnational Dimension of EU-China Relations

Author(s): Tomasz Kamiński,Adriana Skorupska,Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; People’s Republic of China; international relations; foreign policy; EU-China relations;

This report is the result of a three-year project conducted by the Faculty of International and Political Studies at the University of Łódź and the Polish Institute of International Affairs and funded by the National Science Centre. The aim of the project was to understand the role of cooperation between European and Chinese regions in the politics of the European Union as regards China. The study involved the phenomenon of paradiplomacy, i.e., relations of international subnational entities whose goal is to achieve economic, cultural, and political benefits. It is assumed that the growing independence of local governments brings new challenges to the foreign policy of the state. The report presents the specificity of relations with China at the subnational level of the six largest EU countries in terms of population: Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Italy, and the UK. It also analyses selected case studies of European regions cooperating with Chinese partners. The text also includes references to relations between the European Union and China. The conclusions are based on the analysis of the selected countries and cannot always be generalised to the entire European Union.

Regionalny wymiar stosunków UE z Chinami

The Subnational Dimension of EU-China Relations

Author(s): Tomasz Kamiński,Adriana Skorupska,Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: European Union; People’s Republic of China; international relations; foreign policy; EU-China relations;

Raport jest wynikiem trzyletniego projektu prowadzonego przez Wydział Studiów Międzynarodowych i Politologicznych Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego oraz Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych i finansowanego przez Narodowe Centrum Nauki. Celem projektu było zrozumienie roli, jaką odgrywa współpraca między regionami europejskimi i chińskimi w polityce Unii Europejskiej wobec Chin. Badaniu poddano zjawisko paradyplomacji, czyli relacji międzynarodowych podmiotów subpaństwowych, których celem jest osiągnięcie gospodarczych, kulturowych i politycznych korzyści. Przyjmuje się, że rosnąca niezależność samorządów stawia nowe wyzwania wobec polityki zagranicznej państwa. Raport przedstawia specyfikę relacji z Chinami na poziomie subpaństwowym sześciu największych pod względem ludności państw UE: Niemiec, Francji, Hiszpanii, Polski, Włoch i Wielkiej Brytanii. Analizuje także wybrane studia przypadków regionów europejskich współpracujących z chińskimi partnerami. W tekście znajdują się też odniesienia do relacji Unii Europejskiej z ChRL. Ponieważ podstawą wniosków jest analiza wybranych państw, nie zawsze można je uogólniać na całą Unię Europejską.

Kremlin Kids: The Second Generation of the Russian Elite

Kremlin Kids: The Second Generation of the Russian Elite

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kremlin kids; Russian elite; younger generation of Russian elite; strategic state-owned companies; Russian elite families; government;

“Kremlin kids” is a term describing the younger generation of the Russian elite’s close family and other relatives. Owing to their families’ influence, “Kremlin kids” enjoy a privileged position within Russia, running strategic state-owned companies, affording studies, acquiring property across the world and winning lucrative state contracts for their own companies. Not all children of the Russian elite are “Kremlin kids,” yet almost every member of the elite has a “Kremlin kid” in their family. Within Russia, the “Kremlin kids”—the elite’s most trustworthy associates—help their parents and families control strategic Russian companies (in oil, gas, energy, banking, etc.). Those who run their own businesses can count on a substantial flow of money from the state budget (less often, they personally work in the government). Such influence and experience make the “Kremlin kids” the most likely successors of the current ruling Russian elite.

Turkey in a Process of Change: Conclusions for the EU Strategy

Turcja w procesie przemian: wnioski dla strategii UE

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Turkey; European Union; process of change; reforms; international relations; integration with Western structures; foreign policy;

Od 2013 r. tureccy politycy intensywnie głoszą nadejście „nowej Turcji”. W ich przekonaniu zmiany, które Partia Sprawiedliwości i Rozwoju (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) zaczęła wprowadzać po objęciu władzy w 2002 r., mają ostatecznie doprowadzić do radykalnej odmiany oblicza państwa. W 2023 r. – a więc w stulecie istnienia – Republika Turcji, silna, stabilna i „pewna siebie”, zdolna kształtować sytuację w regionie, ma być jednym z ośrodków nowego, wielobiegunowego ładu międzynarodowego. Wprowadzenie systemu prezydenckiego wskutek referendum z 16 kwietnia 2017 r. stanowi kolejny krok, a zarazem nowy impuls, w tym kierunku. Te pomysły – i niełatwe uwarunkowania, w jakich są realizowane – powodują, że od dłuższego czasu Turcja nie znika z czołówek gazet na całym świecie. Badacze i analitycy zastanawiają się, jakie będzie to nowe oblicze Republiki Turcji. Czy nadal będzie świeckim państwem, zorientowanym na integrację ze strukturami zachodnimi? Czy też reformy wewnętrzne stanowią zapowiedź nieuniknionego, radykalnego zwrotu w polityce zagranicznej? Jaką strategię wobec takiej Turcji powinna przyjąć Unia Europejska?

The Image of Poland in Ukraine's Historical Policy

Obraz Polski w polityce historycznej Ukrainy

Author(s): Łukasz Jasina,Piotr Kościński,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Poland; ukraine; common history; Polish-Ukrainian relations; political history; foreign policy; Ukraine’s policies on historical matters;

Na potrzeby niniejszego raportu autorzy przyjęli następującą definicję polityki historycznej: jest to przekaz polityczny na temat historii państwa i narodu propagowany przez władze państwowe i będący elementem polityki państwa. Historia i stosunek do niej w dużym stopniu kształtowały relacje polsko-ukraińskie po odzyskaniu przez Ukrainę niepodległości w 1991 r. Oprócz prób rozwiązania problemów politycznych czy gospodarczych oba państwa starały się, z różnym skutkiem, uregulować stosunek do kwestii kontrowersyjnych. Są to przede wszystkim rzeź wołyńska (1943–1944), akcja „Wisła” (1947), relacje między Polakami i Ukraińcami przed II wojną światową oraz stosunek do reżimów hitlerowskiego i komunistycznego. W związku z prowadzoną przez Ukrainę polityką historyczną napięcia w relacjach polsko-ukraińskich pojawiały się zatem od początku, zwłaszcza przy okazji rocznic zbrodni wołyńskiej w 2003 i 2013 r. Niemniej dopiero w 2016 r. doszło do poważniejszego kryzysu na tle stosunku do historii – na szczeblu zarówno politycznym, jak i społecznym.

Options for Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix

Options for Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Andrei Zagorski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Transparency; confidence building; non-strategic nuclear-weapons; Europe; NATO; Russia;

On 20–21 February 2014 in Warsaw, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) in cooperation with the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAN) organised the workshop: Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures Related to Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Cost-Benefit Matrix. The workshop sought to advance the informal dialogue on information-sharing and transparency and confidence-building measures (TCBMs) regarding non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) in Europe. The idea behind the workshop was based on the concept of a Joint TCBM Cost-Benefit Matrix, outlined in the final report of the 2013 Warsaw Workshop: Prospects for Information-Sharing and Confidence-Building on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe.