Publisher: ESI – European Stability Initiative

THE SURPRISING FRONT-RUNNER. Moldova before and after the Vilnius Summit

THE SURPRISING FRONT-RUNNER. Moldova before and after the Vilnius Summit

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova economy; Moldova Democracy;

In the past year Moldova has been praised by European leaders for its reforms. Speaking at the EU-Moldova forum in October 2012, EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Füle called Moldova “the Eastern Partnership’s most dependable model student.”1 He added: “From an uncertain supporter of the Eastern Partnership, it has turned into its most prominent member, into a staunchly committed and reliable partner.” || Moldova’s poverty is structural: it is too rural, and produces too few things that people in other countries might want to buy. For it to catch up huge changes are needed – investments in infrastructure, in agriculture, in industry, in the skills of its people. For this to happen there is a need for both confidence in the future and a clear sense of direction. This has happened before, though, and Moldovans can look across the Prut to see the effects of such a perspective. Will there be a similar perspective for them soon? || The prospects of obtaining visa-free travel and signing the Association Agreement and DCFTA soon are both good news. At the same time Moldova desperately needs economic development and increased foreign direct investment. For this a clear long-term EU membership perspective would be crucial. If the EU wants Moldova to become a true success story in the Eastern neighbourhood, it should be prepared to go further.

TRUST AND TRAVEL. How EU member states can ease the visa burden for Turks

TRUST AND TRAVEL. How EU member states can ease the visa burden for Turks

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Schengen; visa-free Trukish travel;

Up until the 1980s Turkish citizens could travel without a visa to all Western European countries except Greece. Following the 1980 military coup, these countries introduced a visa requirement for Turkish citizens. In the 1990s, with the establishment of the Schengen zone, the visa requirement became common EU policy. || In December 2013 the European Commission handed over a roadmap towards visa-free travel. Now Turkey has to meet a series of requirements that the roadmap sets out. If it does, the EU has promised to abolish the Schengen short-stay visa requirement for Turkish citizens. || Turkey now has to meet the requirements that the roadmap sets out. They concern passport security, border management, asylum policy and respect for human rights, the fight against illegal migration and various forms of organised crime, as well as cooperation with the EU. However, there are widespread concerns in Turkey that EU member states might still vote against lifting the visa requirement even if Turkey meets all roadmap conditions.

THE DIFFERENCE LEADERSHIP MAKES. Lessons from Croatia’s EU accession process

THE DIFFERENCE LEADERSHIP MAKES. Lessons from Croatia’s EU accession process

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Croatia's EU-accession; Franjo Tudjman; ICTY; HDZ; Stipe Mesic;

In the end it seemed almost inevitable. Croatia submitted its EU membership application to the Greek EU presidency in early 2003. At a referendum in January 2012 two thirds of Croatian voters supported their country’s accession to the European Union as its 28th member. The referendum came after national elections in December 2011 in which all of the main political parties had backed EU membership. Although some observers noted that less than half of all eligible voters participated in the referendum, given the large number of “dead souls” in the voting registry and the fact that many Croatians living abroad did not vote, the percentage of resident voters who participated appears to have been above 61 per cent. Turnout was thus considerably higher than in Hungary (46 per cent) and comparable to Slovenia (60 per cent) and Poland (59 per cent). The January 2012 referendum concluded a decade in which successive Croatian governments had all assumed that there was no credible alternative to meeting the conditions put forward by the EU to become a full member. || But there was nothing inevitable about Croatia’s evolution: it took significant political leadership, as well as courage and perseverance, to repudiate the values and policies of the 1990s. It also took, at key moments during this period, smart EU interventions. The Croatian experience, as well as the lessons it holds for the rest of the Western Balkans, is worth exploring in more detail.

TIMISOARA 2.0

TIMISOARA 2.0

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Dan Diaconu, deputy mayor of Timisoara, has an unusual problem. “Unemployment in our city stands at one per cent,” the 36-year-old, elected in 2012, explains. “This is a problem for attracting new investors. Some are scared away by this fact.” In conditions of near full employment, labour is hard to find. Yet this is a problem that most European cities would long to have. Diaconu concedes, with no sign of enthusiasm, that in his city of 320,000 people, “the economic indicators show that indeed there is no big crisis in Timisoara today.” || (This essay is part of the “Return to Europe Revisited” project supported by ERSTE Foundation. Following the award-winning twelve-part documentary series “Return to Europe” (2008/12), we revisit all countries covered by the series.)

MEASURING CORRUPTION. The case for deep analysis and a simple proposal

MEASURING CORRUPTION. The case for deep analysis and a simple proposal

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU soft power; anti-corruption; EU supervision;

In its annual progress reports the European Commission offers descriptions of the institutional and legal infrastructure that play a role in combatting corruption in the seven accession countries. Such analysis matters: flawed laws, under-resourced institutions and ill equipped officials will obviously generate problems. But studying and improving the institutional and legal infrastructure is not an end in itself: its ultimate purpose is to change behavior. Even the best anti-corruption agency and even the most eloquent anti-corruption action plan are only the means to an end, not the end itself. || This raises the question of assessment of impact. Can the actual incidence of corruption in different walks of social life be fairly established? Can the impact of anti-corruption reforms be captured, measured, and the outcomes compared? || ESI believes that the European Commission has a powerful tool at its disposal to do just this. It is, however, a tool that is not currently used in the context of accession.

Why people don’t need to DROWN IN THE AEGEAN. A policy proposal

Why people don’t need to DROWN IN THE AEGEAN. A policy proposal

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: refugees in the Aegan;

The situation on the European Union’s external borders in the Eastern Mediterranean is out of control. In the first eight months of 2015, an estimated 433,000 migrants and refugees have reached the EU by sea, most of them – 310,000 – via Greece. The island of Lesbos alone, lying a scant 15 kilometres off the Turkish coast and with population of 86,000, received 114,000 people between January and August. And the numbers keep rising. The vast majority of people arriving in Greece during this period were Syrians (175,000). They are all likely to be given refugee status in the EU if they reach it; in 2014, the recognition rate of Syrian asylum applications was above 95 percent. But to claim asylum in the EU, they need to undertake a perilous journey by land and sea. || In the face of this massive movement of people – the largest in Europe since the end of the Second World War – there have been two diametrically opposed responses.

PANGLOSS IN BRUSSELS. How (not) to implement the Aegean Agreement

PANGLOSS IN BRUSSELS. How (not) to implement the Aegean Agreement

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Turkey agreement on refugees;

On 28 September the European Commission published its third report on the implementation of the EU-Turkey Agreement. This follows its first April Report and its second June Report. Like these, the September Report argues that the Commission is on top of its game in addressing the refugee situation in the Aegean; that policy makers need not worry; that problems are identified, and that they are being resolved. This has also been the message of the Commission in a series of recent interviews with major European media. || A closer analysis of the Commission’s report shows how fragile the EU-Turkey agreement has become, and how little thought and effort is being put into overcoming obvious problems in order to make it work. When it comes to both implementation and communication the current effort falls dramatically short.

NAVIGATING THE AEGEAN. What the EU ought to know, and say, about refugees and the Greek islands. A policy proposal

NAVIGATING THE AEGEAN. What the EU ought to know, and say, about refugees and the Greek islands. A policy proposal

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: refugees in Aegean;

This paper has one simple purpose: it is an appeal to European institutions to improve their reporting on what is actually happening on Lesbos, Chios, and other Greek islands. The information that is needed to assess the implementation of the EU-Turkey agreement is straightforward and should be presented in a weekly update. The fact that this does not exist yet is troubling. It raises the possibility that European institutions do not have this information. It also suggests that the implementation of the EU-Turkey agreement is not proceeding as foreseen, and that the EU support mission to Greece resembles a vessel sailing in the dark, without instruments, without a captain, which might hit a rock at any moment.

Pangloss in Brussels. How (not) to implement the Aegean Agreement

PANGLOSS BRÜKSEL’DE. Ege Anlaşması nasıl doğru (ya da yanlış) hayata geçirilebilir?

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Turkish

Keywords: EU-Turkey agreement on refugees;

On 28 September the European Commission published its third report on the implementation of the EU-Turkey Agreement. This follows its first April Report and its second June Report. Like these, the September Report argues that the Commission is on top of its game in addressing the refugee situation in the Aegean; that policy makers need not worry; that problems are identified, and that they are being resolved. This has also been the message of the Commission in a series of recent interviews with major European media. || A closer analysis of the Commission’s report shows how fragile the EU-Turkey agreement has become, and how little thought and effort is being put into overcoming obvious problems in order to make it work. When it comes to both implementation and communication the current effort falls dramatically short.

THE CHAPTER ILLUSION. For honesty and clarity in EU-Turkey relations

THE CHAPTER ILLUSION. For honesty and clarity in EU-Turkey relations

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Turkey-relation; Turkish EU-accession; Cyprus;

What can the EU do in the face of politicised justice, human rights violations and disregard for basic principles of the rule of law in Turkey today? What actions might make a difference? It is easy to state what should be avoided: silence in the face of repression, certainly; cutting links to Turkey, obviously; drawing “red lines” which cannot be defended because the EU lacks the tools or the consensus to do so, of course. || To take one emblematic issue: why does the EU not open chapter 23 (on “Judiciary and fundamental rights”) if it is concerned about the state of the rule of law and fundamental rights in Turkey? This is what members of the Turkish government keep asking. The conventional answer is: Cyprus and its veto. But this answer hides a much more important question: what if, due to some change of heart in Nicosia, chapter 23 were to be “opened” tomorrow?

“AMSTERDAM IN THE MEDITERRANEAN”. How a Dutch-style asylum system can help resolve the Mediterranean refugee crisis

“AMSTERDAM IN THE MEDITERRANEAN”. How a Dutch-style asylum system can help resolve the Mediterranean refugee crisis

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Asylum seekers; right of asylum;

Like French president Emmanuel Macron, leaders across the EU are looking for a fast, effective and humane asylum system; a system which determines quickly, but thoroughly, who needs protection; creates disincentives for people to get into boats; and manages to return those who are found not to need protection within a short period of time. || The question is how to make this happen. One place to look to for concrete inspiration is the Netherlands. There most asylum claims are decided within less than two months including appeals in a procedure fully respecting the rights of refugees. Asylum seekers are supported from the beginning by a lawyer paid for by the state and can state their claim in at least two comprehensive interviews.

“AMSTERDAM IN THE MEDITERRANEAN”. How a Dutch-style asylum system can help resolve the Mediterranean refugee crisis

“AMSTERDAM NEL MEDITERRANEO”. Come il sistema d’asilo olandese può contribuire a risolvere la crisi migratoria nel Mediterraneo

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Italian

Keywords: right of asylum; asylum seekers;

Like French president Emmanuel Macron, leaders across the EU are looking for a fast, effective and humane asylum system; a system which determines quickly, but thoroughly, who needs protection; creates disincentives for people to get into boats; and manages to return those who are found not to need protection within a short period of time. || The question is how to make this happen. One place to look to for concrete inspiration is the Netherlands. There most asylum claims are decided within less than two months including appeals in a procedure fully respecting the rights of refugees. Asylum seekers are supported from the beginning by a lawyer paid for by the state and can state their claim in at least two comprehensive interviews.

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE. Why Bosnian democracy will not end this October

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE. Why Bosnian democracy will not end this October

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnian elections; Bosnian election-law reform;

In December 2016 the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina declared parts of the national election law unconstitutional. Since then leading Bosnian Croat politicians have warned that this might make the implementation of the results of the upcoming October 2018 elections impossible. They claim that only a last-minute agreement on a new election law might prevent a deep crisis. These warnings are misleading. Bosnian democracy will not end in October. There is no institututional crisis. There is no reason to adopt changes to the Bosnian election law in a hurry a few months before elections. This short paper explains the background to Bosnia’s latest fake crisis – what it is about and why there is no need to intervene – in simple answers to seven questions.

HOW TO IMPLEMENT THE EU-TURKEY STATEMENT. Phase II - Key facts and key steps

HOW TO IMPLEMENT THE EU-TURKEY STATEMENT. Phase II - Key facts and key steps

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: refugees in Turkey, EU-Turkey-agreement;

THE AEGEAN TRAGEDY. Key facts and key steps

THE AEGEAN TRAGEDY. Key facts and key steps

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey-EU-agreement on refugees; refugees in Aegean;

THE OTTOMAN DILEMMA. Power and Property Relations under the United Nations Mission in Kosovo

THE OTTOMAN DILEMMA. Power and Property Relations under the United Nations Mission in Kosovo

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: UNMIK; privatization in Kosovo;

The United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) has made itself responsible as trustee and administrator for a vast amount of state and socially owned property across Kosovo, including some 370 socially owned enterprises (SOEs). However, over the past three years, it has lacked the institutional resources to establish an effective property regime. As a result, control over some of Kosovo’s most valuable economic assets is being determined outside the legal system, in countless individual power struggles across Kosovo. The results have been harmful both to economic development, social and political stability and the establishment of the rule of law. || This report analyses different strategies employed by UNMIK to fulfil its responsibility as trustee of social property, including direct administration of SOEs, the restoration of Yugoslav workplace democracy (‘self-management’) under the 1988 Law on Enterprises, and granting concessions over SOEs to private investors (‘commercialisation’). It concludes that these efforts have done little to curb the confusion over commercial property or to promote an environment more conducive for private sector growth.

TREPČA, 1965-2000

TREPČA, 1965-2000

Author(s): Michael Palairet / Language(s): English

Keywords: Trepča Mining;

I initiated research on this report in July 2002, mainly using materials in the public domain in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In particular, use was made of Trepča, the Combine’s internal newspaper, for 1989-1999. This preliminary research familiarised me with the central issues regarding the business of RMHK “Trepča” in the recent past, and identified issues likely to bear on the problems of the enterprise. It provided a basis for further research carried out October-December 2002 on documents held at RMHK “Trepča”s head office at Zvečan, files at the offices of EU in Priština, and Trepča documents also held by UNMIK/EU and stored on 25 CD-Rom disks.

BEYOND ENLARGEMENT FATIGUE? Part 1: The Dutch debate on Turkish accession

BEYOND ENLARGEMENT FATIGUE? Part 1: The Dutch debate on Turkish accession

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU enlargement; Turkish EU accession;

Since the spring of 2005, when the proposed European Constitutional Treaty was rejected in referenda in France and the Netherlands, debate on the drawbacks of enlargement has gained in intensity. Senior politicians across Europe have called for a slow-down, freeze or even a permanent halt to enlargement.3 Voices opposing enlargement regularly make headlines, creating the impression that the future of enlargement is hanging in the balance. || Was 2005 a decisive break in a half century of European Union expansion, or just one of ist periodic episodes of gloom and self-doubt? Could enlargement fatigue become a self-fulfilling prophecy, slowing down reforms and spreading instability among the candidates? || To explore these questions, ESI is carrying out a series of studies on current debates on enlargement in key EU member states, entitled Beyond Enlargement Fatigue? The series begins with one of Turkey’s traditional supporters, the Netherlands, and examines how Dutch attitudes have developed since 1999. It will continue with studies of the enlargement debates in Austria, Germany, France and other EU members.

A BOSNIAN FORTRESS. Return, Energy and the Future of Republika Srpska

A BOSNIAN FORTRESS. Return, Energy and the Future of Republika Srpska

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Doboj; Republika Srpska;

Twelve years after its own vicious war, Bosnia and Herzegovina has changed tremendously. It has seen the large-scale return of displaced persons, the return of property and a comprehensive process of demilitarization. Freedom of movement has been restored. Interethnic violence has disappeared. New institutions at the state level govern an increasingly integrated single market. The changes that have taken place in Bosnia over the past twelve years have been no less profound than those which transformed Western Europe in the 12 years after World War II. || This report investigates conditions in a municipality in Republika Srpska on the former frontline that was once infamous as a hotbed of (Serb) nationalism. Doboj, divided by the war and today split into four parts, has long been a mirror of wider trends. Ten years ago, Doboj was notorious as a centre of hard-line nationalism. The Bosniak and Croat villages in the vicinity had been ruthlessly destroyed. The few remaining non-Serbs were under intense pressure to leave. The SDS (Serb Democratic Party), founded by indicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic, held Doboj firmly in its grip. There was little reason for hope that the multiethnic life of this region could ever be restored.

A REFERENDUM ON THE UNKNOWN TURK? Anatomy of an Austrian debate

A REFERENDUM ON THE UNKNOWN TURK? Anatomy of an Austrian debate

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkish EU-accession;

Around the world, the quality press has been reporting for weeks on the run-up to theAustrian referendum on Turkish EU accession. In London, The Guardian writes: “In 1683, Turkey was the invader. In 2015, Austria still sees it that way.” A commentator in The Financial Times notes: “For many Austrians it is as though the Janissaries were even now aiming their cannon at the gates of Vienna.” The Austrian press (“Siege Mentality”, “The Return of the Turks”, “Bulwark Austria”) and the Turkish media (“The Walls of Vienna”, “Will Vienna fall?”) are awash with military metaphors. || There has never been any doubt about the outcome of the referendum. For more than a decade, Eurobarometer polls have recorded no more than 10 percent support among Austrians for Turkish accession. With the exception of the Green party, all political parties represented in parliament have campaigned for a ‘no’ vote. It is the inevitability of the result which fascinates some (and shocks others). Vienna 2015 will replace Vienna 1683 as a global metaphor for the eternal confrontation between Christian and Muslim Europe.