Publisher: ESI – European Stability Initiative

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THE OTTOMAN DILEMMA. Power and Property Relations under the United Nations Mission in Kosovo

THE OTTOMAN DILEMMA. Power and Property Relations under the United Nations Mission in Kosovo

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: UNMIK; transformation in Kosovo;

The United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) has made itself responsible as trustee and administrator for a vast amount of state and socially owned property across Kosovo, including some 370 socially owned enterprises (SOEs). However, over the past three years, it has lacked the institutional resources to establish an effective property regime. As a result, control over some of Kosovo’s most valuable economic assets is being determined outside the legal system, in countless individual power struggles across Kosovo. The results have been harmful both to economic development, social and political stability and the establishment of the rule of law. This report analyses different strategies employed by UNMIK to fulfil its responsibility as trustee of social property, including direct administration of SOEs, the restoration of Yugoslav workplace democracy (‘self-management’) under the 1988 Law on Enterprises, and granting concessions over SOEs to private investors (‘commercialisation’). It concludes that these efforts have done little to curb the confusion over commercial property or to promote an environment more conducive for private sector growth.

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WESTERN B ALKANS 2004. Assistance, cohesion and the new boundaries of Europe. A call for policy reform

WESTERN B ALKANS 2004. Assistance, cohesion and the new boundaries of Europe. A call for policy reform

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Western Balkans; EU-Accession;

As the period of reconstruction and stabilisation draws to a close, the Western Balkans is facing a looming crisis of social and economic dislocation which puts at risk some of the European Union’s most important interests in this strategic region. The crisis is emerging just as existing European assistance is being scaled down, and just as the countries of the region find themselves excluded from the European enlargement process. If the region is not to become an island of instability within the European project, existing European policy instruments need to evolve into a genuine and long-term commitment to address the region’s chronic economic and social problems. The European Union should send a strong signal to the countries of the Western Balkans that the promise of Europeanisation is not an illusion.

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THE ROAD TO THESSALONIKI: Cohesion and the Western Balkans

THE ROAD TO THESSALONIKI: Cohesion and the Western Balkans

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Western Balkans; EU-Aid; Thessaloniki Summit; Europeanisation;

As the political and economic map of Europe is redrawn in 2004, there is a growing fear among the countries of the Western Balkans that they will be left on the margins of the new and integrated Europe. There is a risk that, instead of catching up with the rest of the continent, the countries of the Western Balkans will fall further behind, and the goal of integration – and the promise of regional stabilisation this brings – will become even more distant.This discussion paper sets out an alternative scenario. The starting point for a new European approach is the reflection on the needs of the Western Balkans set out in a working paper of the current Greek EU Presidency in January 2003. This paper analyses possible ways and means for policy. It recognises that Western Balkan countries today face very different threats and opportunities from those which existed only three years ago. It notes that European policy instruments have not yet adapted sufficiently to meet these new challenges. There is a pressing need for new strategies to promote structural reform across the region, which is essential to reversing more than two decades of deep economic decline. The European Union, working through the European Commission, needs to build its capacity to bring about serious reform, such as reducing the cost of public administration, liquidating loss-making companies and initiating the retraining of workers left stranded by the collapse of old industrial complexes across the region.

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Lessons from Bosnia and Herzegovina. TRAVAILS OF THE EUROPEAN RAJ

Lessons from Bosnia and Herzegovina. TRAVAILS OF THE EUROPEAN RAJ

Author(s): Gerald Knaus,Felix Martin / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnia as failed state; Bosnian stagnation; Paddy Ashdown; High Representative; Republika Srpska;

Six years after the end of the fighting in BiH, and despite possibly the largest amount of democratization assistance per capita ever spent in one country, the international mission to BiH has arrived at this paradoxical conclusion: What Bosnia and Herzegovina needs is not democratic domestic politics, but government by international experts.

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After the Bonn Powers. OPEN LETTER TO LORD ASHDOWN

After the Bonn Powers. OPEN LETTER TO LORD ASHDOWN

Author(s): Marcus Cox,Gerald Knaus / Language(s): English

Keywords: High Representative; Lord Ashdown;

We would like to explain why we think that the extraordinary powers of the High Representative are no longer an appropriate tool of international assistance to Bosnia. We believe that they have become counterproductive – an obstacle to the development of effective institutions and a healthy democratic process. We would also like to put forward for your consideration a concrete proposal for how the powers of the High Representative should be phased out. (beginning of the Letter)

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MAKING FEDERALISM WORK – A Radical Proposal for Practical Reform

MAKING FEDERALISM WORK – A Radical Proposal for Practical Reform

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnian Politics; Bosnian Constitution;

Politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina continue to be punctuated by regular calls for fundamental constitutional reform. Some call for the disappearance of Republika Srpska. Some argue for a third Entity. Some advocate for a return to a unitary state, with administrative regions drawn according to historical or economic criteria. It seems that few people believe that the present system of municipalities, cantons, two entities, one district and a distant central government is capable of delivering the kind of government which Bosnia needs – that can lead the country out of its economic crisis and towards Europe. ... This paper offers a different kind of constitutional proposal. It was developed in recent months through extensive consultations with leading politicians and public figures across the country. Rather than offering a competing view of Bosnia’s ideal future, it outlines a practical process of reforms on which Bosnia’s politicians and citizens might actually agree.

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WAITING FOR A MIRACLE? The politics of constitutional change in Bosnia and Herzegovina

WAITING FOR A MIRACLE? The politics of constitutional change in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: constitutional reform in Bosnia; Bosnian Federation;

Since ESI released its proposal for a process of constitutional change in Bosnia and Herzegovina three weeks ago, a lively public debate has emerged. There have been extensive discussions on Bosnian television and in newspapers and magazines in Sarajevo, Banja Luka and Mostar. The reactions have not divided along traditional ethnic lines, with supporters and critics appearing on all sides. This new, intense debate on constitutional reform has been noted in the international press.The ESI proposal for abolishing the Federation and creating a simplified, federal structure of twelve units was first introduced on 8 January by the Sarajevo weekly BIH Dani, which described it as “a brilliant idea for getting out of the post-war constitutional blind alley which paralyses progress.”

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PEOPLE OR TERRITORY? A proposal for Mitrovica

PEOPLE OR TERRITORY? A proposal for Mitrovica

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Mitrovica conflict; Kosovo development;

At a conference in Wilton Park on 1 February 2004, ESI presented its analysis of Mitrovica’s economic and social predicament to Kosovo Albanian and Kosovo Serb leaders, together with a proposal for a way forward in 2004.1 To balance the fears and concerns on both sides, ESI’s Wilton Park proposal consists of a package of measures, to be implemented in parallel during the course of 2004. The Wilton Park event revealed broad agreement among local representatives as to the severe social and economic challenges facing Mitrovica, and on the need for immediate action to reverse the cycle of decline. There was a genuine willingness to search for solutions that would ensure a future for the town, and to explore the potential for a locally-negotiated package agreement along the lines outlined here.This paper argues that there is scope for a compromise solution acceptable on both sides of the river Ibar, in order to pre-empt the economic and social death of the Mitrovica region. Such a solution would need to come soon, however, while Mitrovica is still able to attract the international attention and resources required for a serious development strategy.

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THE LAUSANNE PRINCIPLE. Multiethnicity, Territory and the Future of Kosovo’s Serbs

THE LAUSANNE PRINCIPLE. Multiethnicity, Territory and the Future of Kosovo’s Serbs

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kosovo administration; Kosovo constitution;

Five years into the international administration of Kosovo, two violent days in March 2004 have sorely tested the international commitment to a multiethnic Kosovo. Directed against Kosovo’s minorities and against the international mission itself, the violence has left many wondering whether UNMIK has the capacity to achieve its objectives in the face of open resistance.This is a dangerous moment for international policy in the region. The urgent priority for the Kosovo mission and the incoming SRSG is to reaffirm the international commitment to multiethnic society, at both the diplomatic and the practical level.This paper argues that the policies needed in response to the March riots must be based on the practical needs of Serbs living in Kosovo today. The paper finds that the current reality of Kosovo Serbs differs from the common perception in important ways. There are still nearly 130,000 Serbs living in Kosovo today, representing two-thirds of the pre-war Serb population. Of these, two-thirds (75,000) are living south of the River Ibar in Albanian-majority areas. Almost all of the urban Serbs have left, with North Mitrovica now the last remaining urban outpost. However, most of the rural Serbs have never left their homes. The reality of Kosovo Serbs today is small communities of subsistence farmers scattered widely across Kosovo.

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Wilton Park Conference, 10 June 2004 - RECOMMENDATIONS

Wilton Park Conference, 10 June 2004 - RECOMMENDATIONS

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Western Balkan perspectives; 2003 Thessaloniki;

As the political and economic map of South Eastern Europe is redrawn through successive European enlargements, a number of countries of the Western Balkans risk being left on the margins of the new and integrated Europe.In 1998, the only country in South Eastern Europe which was a member of the European Union was Greece. By 2007, Romania, Bulgaria and possibly Croatia are likely to join, while Macedonia and Turkey are likely to be engaged in membership negotiations. As the experience of the last enlargement has shown, being a full candidate already brings many of the benefits that in previous Mediterranean enlargements only came with membership. Most of these benefits are crucial to potential investors: a stable macroeconomic environment, a predictable regulatory environment, an expectation that every year the physical and administrative infrastructure will improve, access to increased assistance. … This discussion paper sets out an alternative scenario. The starting point for a new European approach is the reflection on the needs of the Western Balkans which was set out in advance of the 2003 Thessaloniki summit by the Greek EU Presidency.

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TOWARDS A KOSOVO DEVELOPMENT PLAN. The state of the Kosovo economy and possible ways forward

TOWARDS A KOSOVO DEVELOPMENT PLAN. The state of the Kosovo economy and possible ways forward

Author(s): John Bradley,Gerald Knaus,Besim Beqaj,Andreas Wittkowsky / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kosovo Development Plan; Kosovo economy 2004; Kosovo convergence;

The key priority for this (2004) and future Kosovo governments is to identify ways in which Kosovo can catch up with the rest of Europe. The overriding goal of Kosovo’s economic policy must be to bring about a substantial process of convergence towards European living standards within the next generation.To achieve this objective all government ministries, public institutions and agencies involved in formulating and implementing economic development policy – both at the central and at the local level – need a common strategic focus. The role of UNMIK, the European Union and of international donors is to support this focus on economic and social convergence and to assist with advice and – as part of the process of European integration – economic resources.

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GOVERNANCE AND DEMOCRACY in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Post-Industrial Society and the Authoritarian Temptation

GOVERNANCE AND DEMOCRACY in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Post-Industrial Society and the Authoritarian Temptation

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Governance in Bosnia and Hercegovina; Bosnian constitution; Bosnian Democracy;

In the summer of 2002, the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) approached the European Stability Initiative to conduct a Governance Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Governance Assessment was designed to study the evolution of government in Bosnia, and to “assess more fully the constraints on positive decision-making” across all levels of government in Bosnia. Its goal was to promote an open debate within Bosnian society on what constitutes good governance, in order to build up democratic pressures in favour of change.During the second half of 2002, using a team of Bosnian researchers, ESI carried out investigations across Bosnia and Herzegovina on the social and economic challenges facing the country, and how Bosnian governments are responding to them. The empirical research was concluded in October 2003, and the conclusions presented to a range of different audiences during 2003 and the first half of 2004, in Bosnia and Herzegovina and outside. This paper now presents this analytical work to a wider audience. Additional background material on the governance assessment is also available on the ESI website (www.esiweb.org). The views expressed in this report are those of ESI, and do not express the opinion of either DFID or the government of the United Kingdom.

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THE HELSINKI MOMENT. European Member-State Building in the Balkans

THE HELSINKI MOMENT. European Member-State Building in the Balkans

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Accession; EU and Balkans; Romano Prodi; Authoritarian State-Building; Soft-Power;

In its current proposal for the next seven year EU assistance budget (2007-2013) and the Instrument for Pre-Accession, prepared by the previous Commission, there is a strict separation in the kinds of assistance offered to candidates (Turkey and Croatia) and to potential candidates (the rest of the region). Albania, Bosnia or Kosovo will not - as plans currently stand - be offered support for rural development, cohesion or human resource policies.If EU governments proceed in this way there could be serious political and economic consequences. It would mean that all those living in rural areas in these countries, suffering from inadequate education and training systems, or from seriously deficient infrastructure, will see the development gap separating them from the rest of Europe (and from their immediate neighbours) grow wider. The desperation of the countryside and of declining industrial towns, whether in Sumadija or Presevo, Central Bosnia or Western Macedonia, would continue to grow. The politically least stable part of the continent would fall further behind. A new European ghetto - comprising most of the Balkans' Albanians and Serbs, brought together behind a wall of visa-restrictions to block a desperate population from seeking work elsewhere - would arise in the heart of an integrating continent. Lasting stability would remain elusive.

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BREAKING OUT OF THE BALKAN GHETTO: Why IPA should be changed

BREAKING OUT OF THE BALKAN GHETTO: Why IPA should be changed

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Accessio; Western Balkans; IPA-fund; EU subsidies;

ESI is proposing in this paper that the potential candidates in the Western Balkans should be given the chance to progress towards EU membership on an equal footing with previous candidates. Serbia-Montenegro and Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania should be given at least the same kind of support in 2007 as Bulgaria and Romania were given in 1997. If member-state building were to begin in 2007, it may be possible for countries of the region to achieve EU membership by 2014, in accordance with the ambitious agenda set out by the International Commission for the Balkans.The draft IPA regulation should therefore be changed to make pre-accession assistance available to both official and potential candidates. The trigger should be the signing of Stabilization and Association Agreements (expected in 2006), rather than formal candidate status. This would not increase the volume of assistance in the short term, as each country would require time to put in place the structures needed to benefit from this assistance. However, it is critical that they begin the process of member-state building immediately.

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THE DEVELOPMENT TRAP at the heart of the Balkans. A socio-economic portrait of Gjilan, Kumanovo and Presevo

THE DEVELOPMENT TRAP at the heart of the Balkans. A socio-economic portrait of Gjilan, Kumanovo and Presevo

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Gjilan; Kumanovo; Preshevo; Kosovo; South-Serbia;

ESI has spent the past year studying economic trends in the region and looking for development potential. Most of the news is bad. Only a handful of the old socially owned enterprises have made a successful transition to private ownership. The new private sector is small in scale, dominated by shops, cafés and basic services, and can absorb only a fraction of the labour shed by industry. Commercial agriculture is on the decline, and family farms do not produce the revenues for reinvesting in machinery. We estimate that no more than 33 percent of the working-age population are employed, compared to the EU average of 63 percent. This is the development trap at the heart of the Western Balkans. Regions with this economic profile are not attractive to private investors. Nor do they generate significant revenues of their own to support public investments in development. Unless there is a concerted effort by central governments and their international partners to invest in overcoming the barriers to economic growth, the region will continue to fall further behind.

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ISLAMIC CALVINISTS. Change and Conservatism in Central Anatolia

ISLAMIC CALVINISTS. Change and Conservatism in Central Anatolia

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kayseri; Orta Anadolu; Hacilar;

Among Europeans who are skeptical of Turkish membership of the European Union, it is common to hear the view that Turkey has two souls, only one of which is Western. They contrast the cosmopolitan outlook of Istanbul with the vast Turkish interior, which is seen as backward, impoverished and ‘non-European’ in its values. This report explores these social and economic changes in the Central Anatolian province of Kayseri, home to one million people. It presents detailed case studies of a number of strategic sectors: the emergence of Kayseri as Turkey’s leading cluster of furniture manufacturers; the rise of Orta Anadolu, producing one percent of the world’s denim; and the success of the Kayseri sugar refinery and its impact on local agriculture. These case studies illustrate how industrial capitalism emerged from a predominantly rural and merchant society within a single generation. They also demonstrate how policy failures by successive governments caused the 1990s to be a ‘lost decade’, and how the economic crisis of 2000/01 and the structural reforms which followed it have marked a decisive turning point for the Turkish economy. The report also explores how over the past decade individualistic, pro-business currents have become prominent within Turkish Islam. It looks closer at Kayseri’s most successful small town, the industrial district of Hacilar, whose 20,000 inhabitants have given birth to 9 out of Turkey’s top 500 companies. It finally examines the position of women in this evolving Anatolian society, and why this could prove to be the Achilles heel of continued rapid development.

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ON MOUNT OLYMPUS. How the UN violated human rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and why nothing has been done to correct it

ON MOUNT OLYMPUS. How the UN violated human rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and why nothing has been done to correct it

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: UNMIBH; UN in Bosnia-Hercegovina; vetting procedure; Bosnian police; High Representative;

Between 1996 and 2002, UNMIBH ran a large police mission in Bosnia, the International Police Task Force (IPTF). One of the tasks it set itself was to rid the Bosnian police forces of inappropriate personnel through an exhaustive vetting procedure. Altogether, the UN assessed some 18,000 police officers and declared 793 unfit to exercise police powers. || These individuals were banned from serving as police for life – a very severe sanction. Yet the UN failed to offer the most basic procedural safeguards, which the UN Secretary-General himself has noted is the difference between legitimate vetting and “wholesale purges”. The banned police officers were given no opportunity to respond to the evidence against them. Some were not even told the reason for their disqualification. Among the 793, there are at least 150 cases that IPTF could not finalise during its mandate, and whose fate was simply left hanging. Some of these cases clearly involve serious injustice. || At the centre of this report is an exchange of letters between the High Representative in Bosnia and the UN Under-Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations in New York. It shows that international officials have been aware for many years that mistakes were made. According to notes prepared by the High Representative’s Office (OHR), the two organisations concluded in December 2003 that there were “cases where errors of law or errors of fact might have occurred.” An OHR summary of a further meeting in July 2004 noted again that “the UN representatives acknowledged that some cases were problematic.” But nothing was done to resolve the problems. The only action on which the two institutions could agree was intimidating the Bosnian courts and authorities into doing nothing.

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LEGAL DYNAMITE. How a Bosnian court may bring closer the end of the Bosnian protectorate

LEGAL DYNAMITE. How a Bosnian court may bring closer the end of the Bosnian protectorate

Author(s): Gerald Knaus,Marcus Cox / Language(s): English

Keywords: Peace Implementation Council; Protectorate over Bosnia and Hercegovina; High Representative;

On 27 February, diplomats representing 55 governments and international agencies met in Brussels as the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) for Bosnia and Herzegovina. They decided to prolong the international protectorate of the country until June 2008, although they had initially planned to close it down this coming June. This means that the extraordinary powers of the High Representative, who is also the EU’s Special Envoy, to impose legislation and to dismiss public officials have been extended as well. The Council also decided not to renew the mandate of the current High Representative, German politician Christian Schwarz-Schilling, whom influential PIC members accuse of not using his powers aggressively enough.

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THE WORST IN CLASS. How the international protectorate hurts the European future of Bosnia and Herzegovina

THE WORST IN CLASS. How the international protectorate hurts the European future of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Constitution of Bosnia and Hercegovina; police Reform in Bosnia; EU accession;

Yesterday (November 7, 2007) the deputy prime minister of Serbia travelled to Brussels to initial a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European Union. A few days ago (31 October) the European Union announced that the same would not be possible for Bosnia and Herzegovina because of the country’s failure to agree on a police reform that would conform to “European standards” defined by the Office of the High Representative (OHR). As a result of yesterday’s development Bosnia now finds itself at the very end of the queue moving towards distant EU membership: behind Croatia, Turkey, Macedonia, but also behind Albania, Montenegro and Serbia.

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TURKEY’S DARK SIDE. Party closures, conspiracies and the future of democracy

TURKEY’S DARK SIDE. Party closures, conspiracies and the future of democracy

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: headscarve debate; Ergenkon; Hrant Dink; Ragip Duran; AKP; Ergun Ozbudun; JITEM;

2007 was a dramatic year for Turkish politics and society, even by the standards of a country used to political drama. However, few people would have expected 2008 to be even more volatile, and potentially catastrophic, for Turkish democracy. || The fact that the Turkish Constitutional Court agreed unanimously on 31 March this year to hear an appeal by the Chief Prosecutor to close down the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and to ban 70 of its members from political life is a serious blow to the credibility of Turkish democracy. || The Chief Prosecutor accused the AKP of being “the focal point of anti-secular activities.” The triggering event was the government’s rather cautious moves to end the headscarf ban in Turkey’s universities. The charges are, however, incoherent and obviously political. Opinion polls reveal overwhelming public support for allowing women with headscarves to attend university in Turkey. There is no other country in Europe where this is a problem at the level of higher education.

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