Publisher: ESI – European Stability Initiative

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A BOSNIAN FORTRESS. Return, Energy and the Future of Republika Srpska

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Twelve years after its own vicious war, Bosnia and Herzegovina has changed tremendously. It has seen the large-scale return of displaced persons, the return of property and a comprehensive process of demilitarization. Freedom of movement has been restored. Interethnic violence has disappeared. New institutions at the state level govern an increasingly integrated single market. The changes that have taken place in Bosnia over the past twelve years have been no less profound than those which transformed Western Europe in the 12 years after World War II. || This report investigates conditions in a municipality in Republika Srpska on the former frontline that was once infamous as a hotbed of (Serb) nationalism. Doboj, divided by the war and today split into four parts, has long been a mirror of wider trends. Ten years ago, Doboj was notorious as a centre of hard-line nationalism. The Bosniak and Croat villages in the vicinity had been ruthlessly destroyed. The few remaining non-Serbs were under intense pressure to leave. The SDS (Serb Democratic Party), founded by indicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic, held Doboj firmly in its grip. There was little reason for hope that the multiethnic life of this region could ever be restored.

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A PORTRAIT OF DECEPTION. Monitoring Azerbaijan or Why Pedro Agramunt should resign

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

There are very few fellow members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) who have been to Azerbaijan as regularly over the past decade as Pedro Agramunt, the conservative Spanish senator, a businessman from Valencia. Agramunt has been consistent in this approach to Azerbaijan: from the very beginning of his relationship with Baku he has been a defender of the Aliyev regime. The latest monitoring report is his masterpiece. || The Agramunt/Grech report is supposed to assess whether Azerbaijan, as a member of the Council of Europe since 2001, has fulfilled the commitments it took upon itself when it joined the organisation. In fact, it is a sophisticated effort to hide a simple truth, a portrait of deception: in all areas a democracy cannot do without – from free and fair elections to freedom of speech, freedom of assembly or basic political and human rights, including the rule of law through an independent judiciary – the situation in Azerbaijan, already terrible a decade ago, is even worse today.

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A REFERENDUM ON THE UNKNOWN TURK? Anatomy of an Austrian debate

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Around the world, the quality press has been reporting for weeks on the run-up to theAustrian referendum on Turkish EU accession. In London, The Guardian writes: “In 1683, Turkey was the invader. In 2015, Austria still sees it that way.” A commentator in The Financial Times notes: “For many Austrians it is as though the Janissaries were even now aiming their cannon at the gates of Vienna.” The Austrian press (“Siege Mentality”, “The Return of the Turks”, “Bulwark Austria”) and the Turkish media (“The Walls of Vienna”, “Will Vienna fall?”) are awash with military metaphors. || There has never been any doubt about the outcome of the referendum. For more than a decade, Eurobarometer polls have recorded no more than 10 percent support among Austrians for Turkish accession. With the exception of the Green party, all political parties represented in parliament have campaigned for a ‘no’ vote. It is the inevitability of the result which fascinates some (and shocks others). Vienna 2015 will replace Vienna 1683 as a global metaphor for the eternal confrontation between Christian and Muslim Europe.

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A ROME PLAN FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN MIGRATION CRISIS. The case for take-back realism

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The European Union urgently needs a credible policy on asylum and border management. It must combine effective control of external land and sea borders with respect for existing international and EU refugee law. || Such a policy must deter irregular migration of those who do not qualify for protection. It must treat asylum seekers respectfully. It must respect the fundamental norm of the rule of rescue - not to push individuals in need into danger - which is at the heart of the UN Refugee Convention (non-refoulement). Such a plan can replace the current Dublin procedures whose reform is currently being debated in the EU with no prospect for a successful outcome. What the EU needs instead is a Rome Plan for the Mediterranean: effective, humane, and politically viable. || This plan must also recognise a basic truth that holds for Italy and for other EU countries: EU countries are bad at returning third country nationals who do not qualify for protection. This is largely because most poor countries in the world have little interest in taking back their own citizens, who often send remittances. There is an urgent need for return realism.

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A VERY SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP. Why Turkey’s EU Accession Process Will Continue

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

One area where the EU has discriminated against Turkey has been in the field of visa-free travel. This suggests an obvious way to show that EU conditionality vis-à-vis Turkey remains “strict but fair”: to offer Ankara a visa roadmap similar to that which has been given to Western Balkan countries. Once the roadmap requirements are met, Turkish citizens should be able to travel to the EU without a visa. Visa-free travel to the EU is a right enjoyed by Central Europeans (since the early 1990s) and by most people living in the Western Balkans (since 2009). The EU already promised it to Turkey under the 1963 Association Agreement. A credible visa liberalisation process would provide tangible evidence to ordinary citizens that the EU remains committed to a future integration perspective. It would also be a useful tool to advance the implementation of non-discrimination policies and promote further improvements in Turkey‟s human rights record, bringing down still high rates of asylum requests granted to Turkish citizens in EU member states. Such a reform process would be a win-win proposition for the EU and Turkey and a big shot in the arm for the accession process.

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After the Bonn Powers. OPEN LETTER TO LORD ASHDOWN

Author(s): Marcus Cox,Gerald Knaus / Language(s): English

We would like to explain why we think that the extraordinary powers of the High Representative are no longer an appropriate tool of international assistance to Bosnia. We believe that they have become counterproductive – an obstacle to the development of effective institutions and a healthy democratic process. We would also like to put forward for your consideration a concrete proposal for how the powers of the High Representative should be phased out. (beginning of the Letter)

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AHMETI’s VILLAGE. The Political Economy of Interethnic Relations in Macedonia

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report explores the political economy of ethnic relations in Macedonia – the “other conflict” of diminishing resources and collapsing lifestyles which so often goes unnoticed. … It looks at a region of 52,000 people in Western Macedonia, inhabited by 50 percent ethnic Albanians and 40 percent ethnic Macedonians. Like much of Macedonia, Kicevo (Albanian: Kercova) has a deeply rooted tradition of ethnic coexistence. There has been no communal violence in this region for decades, and it remained peaceful even at the height of last year’s fighting. Yet it exhibits a diversity of economic and social patterns among its communities which seems programmed to generate inter-ethnic suspicion and fear.

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AUSTRIA’S OCTOBER ELECTIONS. Implications for the Turkey Debate

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The right-wing parties (FPÖ, BZÖ) have increased their votes and have become even more aggressively opposed to Turkish accession – but they are also more isolated now than before. || The issue of Turkish accession has figured most prominently in the campaign of the FPÖ. Opposition to any negotiations with Turkey has been the main demand of this party and it is listed as the main issue on the party’s own website. || This position is hardly surprising. The FPÖ is opposed to the European Union. It has most recently objected to the ratification of the accession treaties with Bulgaria and Romania (as the only party in the Austrian parliament). It is opposed to foreigners and dislikes Muslims. || Its position, however, is unlikely to have any direct political consequences. All other parties have excluded the option of forming a coalition with the FPÖ under its current leader Heinz-Christian Strache. || Jörg Haider, the key figure (but not official leader) of the BZÖ, has often changed his positions. In the late 1980s he was for Austria joining the EU, and in the early 1990s he was against. In the late 1990s he opposed EU enlargement, while since late 1999 he has supported it. In 2004, he argued for Turkey starting negotiations. Since 2005, he has argued against it. His influence is also seriously diminished as a result of these elections.

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AUTONOMY, DEPENDENCY, SECURITY: The Montenegrin Dilemma

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Since the Montenegrin government distanced itself from the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic, during last year’s Kosovo war, Montenegro has found itself in the international spotlight. Montenegrin politicians have been courted by the West. The United States and the European Union have offered rapid and substantial financial aid – more than 300 million German marks in 1999 and 2000 – to cushion the economic effects of the conflict and the country’s international isolation. NATO officials have repeated ominous but ambiguous warnings to Milosevic not to intervene. Despite this, however, little is know about how Montenegrin society really functions .… The implication is that Western policy in Montenegro should be primarily policy for Montenegro,rather than part of an international campaign to unseat Milosevic. If the international communityfocuses on the needs of Montenegrin society in the coming years, the imperatives are to preserve afunctioning democratic system where elections continue to matter, and to set about the Herculean taskof economic transition.

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AVRUPA BATAKLIĞI. (HAVYAR DİPLOMASİSİ 2. BÖLÜM) Savcılar, Yolsuzluk ve Avrupa Konseyi

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Turkish

Can basic international norms be undermined by corruption? Can international politics be fundamentally reshaped by the personal greed of politicians? These are among the most important questions in global politics today. When it comes to the Council of Europe, guardian of the European Convention of Human Rights and, since its creation in 1949, the leading intergovernmental human rights institution in the world, the answer to both questions is yes.In this follow-up to Caviar Diplomacy, we take a closer look, four years later, at the progress that has been made on miring the Council of Europe in a swamp of corruption. This time we provide the names of members of the parliamentary assembly who paid bribes – including Elkhan Suleymanov, the mastermind behind this policy in Strasbourg. We describe in detail how the corruption of MPs proceeded, from early visits with precious gifts meant to test the beneficiaries’ reactions, to long-term contracts involving huge sums of money. In the third part in this series we will offer specific recommendations for what to do next.

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BEYOND ENLARGEMENT FATIGUE? Part 1: The Dutch debate on Turkish accession

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Since the spring of 2005, when the proposed European Constitutional Treaty was rejected in referenda in France and the Netherlands, debate on the drawbacks of enlargement has gained in intensity. Senior politicians across Europe have called for a slow-down, freeze or even a permanent halt to enlargement.3 Voices opposing enlargement regularly make headlines, creating the impression that the future of enlargement is hanging in the balance. || Was 2005 a decisive break in a half century of European Union expansion, or just one of ist periodic episodes of gloom and self-doubt? Could enlargement fatigue become a self-fulfilling prophecy, slowing down reforms and spreading instability among the candidates? || To explore these questions, ESI is carrying out a series of studies on current debates on enlargement in key EU member states, entitled Beyond Enlargement Fatigue? The series begins with one of Turkey’s traditional supporters, the Netherlands, and examines how Dutch attitudes have developed since 1999. It will continue with studies of the enlargement debates in Austria, Germany, France and other EU members.

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BIJEG IZ PRVOG KRUGA PAKLA ili tajna iza reformi u Bosni i Hercegovini

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bosnian

One popular idea about Bosnia and Herzegovina among European observers is that Newton’s first law of motion applies to its politics: this law says that an object at rest will stay at rest unless acted upon by an outside force. For Bosnian politics, that outside force has to be the international community. One debate in EU capitals today is whether Bosnia is “ready for the next step.” Now that Bosnians have applied for accession, the EU has an obvious way to find out: to give Bosnia a questionnaire, the first step towards preparing an opinion, without delay. The conventional wisdom that Bosnians cannot coordinate when it comes to EU matters is wrong. The history of relations between Bosnia and the EU since 2000 shows that whenever Bosnian institutions were seriously challenged by the EU to co-ordinate, they were able to do so – to the surprise of their European counterparts, who sometimes acted as though Bosnia was expected to fail. This report explores this history and sets the record straight.

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BOOKS AND TEACHERS. The Great Debate on Education Kosovo needs in 2015

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The time is ripe for a substantive national debate on the future of Kosovo schools – how to prepare the next generation of Kosovars to meet professional challenges in an uncertain future. || Any education reform must be debated widely in order to convince not just civil servants in the capital, but thousands of teachers and school officials as well. What do teachers in different schools across the country think constitutes good education? What do they think they are preparing students for? What do students or their parents expect? The reform must make sense to school directors, teachers, students and families of students across Kosovo. It must start from where Kosovo is today.

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BOSNIA AS WUNDERKIND OF DOING BUSINESS. Outline of 14 steps to take

Author(s): Adnan Ćerimagić,Gerald Knaus / Language(s): English

„To be frank, let us note what we can and cannot do. We can advise you on how to improve Bosnia’s ranking within one year. We do not promise that this will actually lead to any more jobs or investment. And yet, it is time for some surprising good news from Bosnia. What the European Commission has asked you to do you can do, and more. And then turn to policies which might actually make a real difference in the long run.“ (from the letter of ESI to the members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Hercegovia)

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BOSNIAN VISA BREAKTHROUGH. Detailed Scorecard of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s results in meeting the EU Schengen White List Conditions

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This record challenges the image of a dysfunctional country dominated by elites incapable of compromise. It underlines the force of EU soft power, if used in the right way. Recent months have shown that when there is a real incentive and credible conditionality, based on European standards, things can move forward surprisingly quickly. 2009 might yet see a fundamental turning point in Bosnia's history: the end of the international protectorate (and of the mandate of the Office of the High Representative) and the promise to overcome the visa fence that continues to isolate the country. || In May 2009 the European Commission was strict. Now that Bosnia has delivered on its commitment, will European institutions be fair? Before this recent breakthrough, the Commission was looking at mid-2010 as a possible date for a Commission proposal to lift the visa obligation for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s citizens, provided that all conditions are met. Due to the lengthy EU decision-making process on visa policy, which requires an opinion by the European Parliament on the Commission proposal followed by a vote in the Council, this would mean that visa-free travel would become a reality around October/November next year – one year from now. || This is too late. Bosnia deserves that to be rewarded for its achievements earlier. European Enlargement Commissioner promised Bosnia and Albania that “the speed of these countries’ progress towards visa-free travel is in the hands of their own leaders.” The leaders have done their part of the deal – now it is up to the Commission to deliver on its commitment.

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BREAKING OUT OF THE BALKAN GHETTO: Why IPA should be changed

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

ESI is proposing in this paper that the potential candidates in the Western Balkans should be given the chance to progress towards EU membership on an equal footing with previous candidates. Serbia-Montenegro and Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania should be given at least the same kind of support in 2007 as Bulgaria and Romania were given in 1997. If member-state building were to begin in 2007, it may be possible for countries of the region to achieve EU membership by 2014, in accordance with the ambitious agenda set out by the International Commission for the Balkans.The draft IPA regulation should therefore be changed to make pre-accession assistance available to both official and potential candidates. The trigger should be the signing of Stabilization and Association Agreements (expected in 2006), rather than formal candidate status. This would not increase the volume of assistance in the short term, as each country would require time to put in place the structures needed to benefit from this assistance. However, it is critical that they begin the process of member-state building immediately.

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CAVIAR DIPLOMACY. How Azerbaijan silenced the Council of Europe - Part 1

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Caviar diplomacy was about winning and retaining the stamp of legitimacy conferred by Council of Europe membership. Created in 1949, the Council of Europe is not Europe’s most influential club. Indeed, faced with the European Union’s bewildering institutional architecture, many of Europe’s citizens have long since forgotten about it. But in its quiet and unassuming way, the Council of Europe stands for democracy and human rights. For more than half a century, it has symbolised the values that bind Europe together. To be a member of the Council of Europe is to be part of the European family. || Over the course of the project, we spoke to a large number of international officials, Azerbaijanis, members of PACE and people involved in election observation missions in Azerbaijan. We studied transcripts of Council of Europe debates on Azerbaijan and dissected election observation reports by international monitors.

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CUTTING THE LIFELINE. Migration, Families and the Future of Kosovo

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

If there is one universal conviction about post-war Kosovo, it is that its economy is fueled by remittances from the diaspora. Policy makers make the comfortable assumption that the diaspora and its fabled generosity will continue not only to plug a major gap in Kosovo’s balance of payments, but also to provide an informal social safety net for poor households, making up for the lack of a welfare state. || This paper argues that times are changing. Remittances have fallen significantly from their post-war high, when they funded the reconstruction of homes across Kosovo. The reason is clear. Since NATO intervention in 1999, migration has swung into reverse, as more than 100,000 Kosovo Albanian refugees have been obliged to return from Germany in particular. Furthermore, the door to continuing migration is now shut, with only the lucky few with close family in the diaspora still able to go abroad through family reunification schemes. As a direct consequence, fewer than 15 percent of Kosovo families now receive regular remittances, and all the signs are that this is decreasing. The lifeline that kept rural Kosovo afloat for the past generation is being cut. This is the legacy facing a post-status Kosovo. || This report contains an unwelcome message for EU member states: it is simply incoherent to invest hundreds of millions of euros in the stabilisation of Kosovo, and at the same time to slam the door so abruptly on any further migration. It is even more incoherent that this is happening to a small society like Kosovo (less than 2 million inhabitants) at the very moment when millions of Romanians, Bulgarians, Latvians or Poles are finding employment in different parts of the European Union. If Europe is serious about finding a lasting political solution for Kosovo, it will need to identify ways in which rural Kosovars can find temporary work abroad. The alternative is to send ever more policemen to Kosovo to deal with a new generation of angry and desperate young men.

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CUTTING THE VISA KNOT. How Turks can travel freely to Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Visa liberalisation has been a crucial element in the EU’s relations with Romania, Serbia and Albania. Yet until recently it had not even appeared on the agenda of talks between Brussels and Ankara. Then on 21 June 2012, the Council invited the Commission to establish a dialogue with Turkey aimed at visa liberalisation. Almost a year has passed since these Council conclusions. The dialogue on visa liberalisation has yet to begin. || There has never before been an EU candidate country that had been negotiating accession for years and whose citizens were unable to travel without a visa. As Turkey and the EU move towards the fiftieth anniversary of their strategic relationship, which started with the 1963 Association Agreement, the time to overcome this particular legacy of the 1980 coup is now. It is time to cut this Gordian visa knot. || Cutting a Gordian knot: Solving an intractable problem through thinking outside the box. Based on legendary event in the ancient city of Gordiyon, 70 kilometers south-west of Ankara.

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De-INDUSTRIALISATION and its CONSEQUENCES. A Kosovo Story. (Lessons Learned and Analysis Unit of the EU Pillar of UNMIK European Stability Initiative)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In pre-socialist times, the town of Peja (known in Serbian as Peć), was a lively regional centre of around 16,000 inhabitants, housing a community of merchants and craftsmen, several hotels and restaurants, and a few larger enterprises: a stream-driven flour mill, two timber mills and a small brick factory. Peja was first connected to the railway in July 1929 and electrification followed in the same year, with a small hydroelectric power-station on the White Drini River. Today, after five decades of socialist development and more than ten years of post-socialist decay, Peja’s economy is back where it started early last century. Amid the ruins of an industrial sector which has entirely collapsed, one can find economic structures strikingly similar to those of the pre-socialist 1930s: shops, tradesmen, hotels, and a handful of functioning industries: a saw mill, a bakery, a brewery and a brick factory. The transition from a pre-industrial agricultural economy to an urban manufacturing centre has failed.

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