Значај политичког одговора за демографску будућност Србије
Why Is It Important to Have a Policy Response to Future Demographic Challenges in Serbia?

Author(s): Vladimir Nikitović
Subject(s): Demography and human biology, Migration Studies, Sociology of Politics
Published by: Институт друштвених наука
Keywords: migration; below-replacement fertility; population policy; EU enlargement; sustainable demographic development
Summary/Abstract: The paper lists some of the most important, or at least the most striking demographic challenges that Serbia is already facing or will do so in the near future. Their common denominator is that they require a long-term strategy, which, by its very nature, cannot depend on short- and medium-term political goals. The paper's considerations rely on the recent population projection of Serbia, which was grounded on two general concepts – the post-transition recovery of the total fertility rate in accordance with the model presented in the 2015 World Population Prospects, and the “migration cycle model” assuming that all of Europe will eventually experience the transition to net immigration. The first concept assumes that the TFR will converge to the long-term level projected for Southern Europe (1.8) in 2100, while the second implies the realization of the EU enlargement to the East as a pivotal condition for a hypothesis on the migration transition with a symbolic turning point in the transition process (2035). The greatest chances are that the population of Serbia will be reduced by more than a quarter between 2015 and 2055, which puts it among the countries set to experience the strongest decrease (over 15%) in global terms – mainly countries of the Former Eastern Bloc. The old-age dependency ratio is likely to grow by 75% by mid-century, which is certainly the most important long-term demographic implication of future trends. Yet, that rise has its limits. Therefore, the next four decades will be the most challenging period of getting used to the new demographic reality, which, in view of the modern concept of population policy (quality before quantity), does not necessarily have to be bad. One of the conclusions is that a significant increase in the total fertility rate, i.e. up to and around the replacement level of 2.1, which current official projections consider as the ultimate objective of population policy, is far beyond the possible outcomes. Therefore, the transition towards stable net immigration will become more and more important over the coming decades, bearing in mind the current negative population momentum and the lag in positive effects of a possible rise in fertility rates. However, Serbia is currently far from either a significant increase in fertility or an attraction for immigrants. For this reason, in addition to incentive measures to increase birth rates, the primary goals of population and economic policies should relate to reducing net emigration, and raising the education level and economic activity of the population in the upcoming period.

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