Како мотивисати креаторе политике да се суоче са демографским изазовима?
How to Motivate Policy Makers to Face Demographic Challenges?
Subject(s): Policy, planning, forecast and speculation, Demography and human biology
Published by: Матица српска
Keywords: foresight exercise; qualitative research; policy makers; demographic future; international migration; Serbia
Summary/Abstract: If we want to understand the deeper truth, or intend to interpret phenomena through the perception of a specific population, a more holistic perspective might be necessary. By applying foresight exercise, some new patterns might be discovered and shifts in study aspects inhibited. Such an approach intends to give meaning to future perceptions, expectations and fears of experts, decision makers and civilians. Its activities are designed to address critical questions, which might significantly shape the future of a country in the coming years. Foresight exercise reinforces thinking about what future steps should be taken, if a specific scenario becomes reality. Personal life stories based on binary opposition of the futures of a country can be used to unambiguously show the policy makers all the relevant implications that different futures might have regarding fertility, migration, population ageing, human capital and labour market in Serbia in the forthcoming period. Furthermore, it seems that such foresight exercise, as a qualitative approach, can provide additional insight into quantitative methods of forecasting demographic future of a country.
- Issue Year: 2014
- Issue No: 148
- Page Range: 607-617
- Page Count: 11
- Language: English