КА БОЉОЈ ДЕМОГРАФСКОЈ БУДУЋНОСТИ СРБИЈЕ
Toward a Better Demographic Future of Serbia
Contributor(s): Slavica Đukić Dejanović (Editor), Mirjana Rašević (Editor), Vladimir S. Kostić (Editor)
Subject(s): Demography and human biology, Economic development, Migration Studies
Published by: Институт друштвених наука
Keywords: migration; below-replacement fertility; population policy; EU enlargement; sustainable demographic development
Summary/Abstract: The paper lists some of the most important, or at least the most striking demographic challenges that Serbia is already facing or will do so in the near future. Their common denominator is that they require a long-term strategy, which, by its very nature, cannot depend on short- and medium-term political goals. The paper’s considerations rely on the recent population projection of Serbia, which was grounded on two general concepts – the post-transition recovery of the total fertility rate in accordance with the model presented in the 2015 World Population Prospects, and the "migration cycle model" assuming that all of Europe will eventually experience the transition to net immigration. The first concept assumes that the TFR will converge to the long-term level projected for Southern Europe (1.8) in 2100, while the second implies the realization of the EU enlargement to the East as a pivotal condition for a hypothesis on the migration transition with a symbolic turning point in the transition process (2035). The greatest chances are that the population of Serbia will be reduced by more than a quarter between 2015 and 2055, which puts it among the countries set to experience the strongest decrease (over 15%) in global terms – mainly countries of the former Eastern Bloc. The old-age dependency ratio is likely to grow by 75% by mid-century, which is certainly the most important long-term demographic implication of future trends. Yet, that rise has its limits. Therefore, the next four decades will be the most challenging period of getting used to the new demographic reality, which, in view of the modern concept of population policy (quality before quantity), does not necessarily have to be bad. One of the conclusions is that a significant increase in the total fertility rate, i.e. up to and around the replacement level of 2.1, which current official projections consider as the ultimate objective of population policy, is far beyond the possible outcomes. Therefore, the transition towards stable net immigration will become more and more important over the coming decades, bearing in mind the current negative population momentum and the lag in positive effects of a possible rise in fertility rates. However, Serbia is currently far from either a significant increase in fertility or an attraction for immigrants. For this reason, in addition to incentive measures to increase birth rates, the primary goals of population and economic policies should relate to reducing net emigration, and raising the education level and economic activity of the population in the upcoming period.
- Print-ISBN-13: 978-86-7093-205-0
- Page Count: 229
- Publication Year: 2018
- Language: Serbian
Активности Владе Републике Србије ка бољој демографској будућности
Активности Владе Републике Србије ка бољој демографској будућности
(Activities of the Government of the Republic of Serbia towards a Better Demographic Future)
- Author(s):Slavica Đukić Dejanović
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Economic policy, Welfare systems, Demography and human biology
- Page Range:11-23
- No. of Pages:14
- Keywords:demography; birthrate; birth promotion; migration
- Summary/Abstract:In the year in which there have been the fewest newborn babies ever since the official statistics records these data, the Government of the Republic of Serbia has established the Cabinet for Demography and Population Policy. In view of the fact that the birthrate is relatively stable yet not sufficient to ensure population replacement, that we are an ageing nation whose average age is almost 43 years, that our mortality rate is increasing and that the process of emigration continuous, the Government has decided to undertake a set of measures that are expected to achieve results in the future, measured in decades in the context of demography. The basis for this paper is the Birth Promotion Strategy, a policy document adopted in 2008 that takes a holistic approach to the current, not so favourable state of affairs, with the objective to gradually mitigate the negative demographic parameters through persistent work. Owing to various circumstances, the activities specified in the Strategy have not been implemented, although even today, more than eight years after its adoption, experts concur that it is a well-made and still effective document and that the goals it incorporates are exactly the goals that need to be pursued. In order to pursue the above goals systematically, the Government has established the Population Policy Council, a body chaired by the Prime Minister, the other members being the line ministers, the representatives of the institutions closely cooperating on demographic issues and relevant experts. Moreover, the Cabinet of the Minister without Portfolio in Charge of Demography and Population Policy has established cooperation with the institutions and experts that are especially active in the field of demography, in particular in the activities directly related to these issues, namely: Institute of Social Sciences, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia, Development Agency of Serbia, Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities. The experience gained and the cooperation with relevant experts has demonstrated two fundamental postulates for implementing a successful population policy: the economic and political stability, and the inclusion of all segments of society, which represent the goals towards which the state takes continuous action. Therefore, special attention is focused on the cooperation with local government units, which will be awarded subsidies in this year for population policy measures defined by the Birth Promotion Strategy, to be implemented in line with the specific needs of each municipality. At the same time, the strategic framework will be revised through the amendments to the existing Strategy in order to be more up-to-date and suited to the new circumstances like migrations and active aging. Besides the long-term goals, the Strategy will be accompanied by short-term action plans that will be adapted to respond to any changes that might occur and are not provided for in the main document.
Криза рађања у Србији: новији увиди
Криза рађања у Србији: новији увиди
(Childbearing Crisis in Serbia: More Recent Insights)
- Author(s):Mirjana Rašević
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Demography and human biology, Migration Studies, Sociology of Politics
- Page Range:25-51
- No. of Pages:28
- Keywords:low fertility; postponement of parenthood; population policy; Serbia
- Summary/Abstract:Serbia is facing a multitude of serious population-related challenges. The principal challenge is the fact that childbearing is far below the replacement level. The objective of this paper is to consider the childbearing crisis in Serbia from a long-term perspective and to attempt to discuss the completed fertility trends in the near future based on the selected micro, meso and macro factors influencing the low fertility levels. To that end, it considers more recent research results that are important for understanding low fertility in Serbia. In addition to the 2011 Population Census data, the paper has also examined the findings of a series of quantitative or qualitative research studies, with various target groups, which directly or indirectly relate to the causes of below-replacement fertility and the postponement of parenthood in Serbia. The trend of the average number of live births to women who were past the reproductive age in 2011, considered by age cohorts, indicates an early appearance of the phenomenon of below-replacement fertility in Serbia and a long period in which the number of live births per woman was stable at the value of 1.8 Although younger cohorts still have a chance of participating in reproduction, the identified markedly lower average number of live births by women aged between 36 and 40 compared to women aged 41 and over in 2011 raises doubts whether the completed fertility in Serbia will remain stable or if it will actually decline below the 1.8 mark. Especially considering that the postponement of childbearing is widespread and has intensified among women between 20 and 34 years of age. Other than the factors arising from the longstanding economic and social crisis in Serbia, the phenomenon of below-replacement fertility, including the postponement of childbearing, can also be explained by a deep transformation of the society following the pattern of the changes that started earlier in the developed European countries, which resulted in low fertility. The pursuit of motherhood in Serbia is hindered by behaviours that are hazardous to reproductive health. Below- replacement fertility is also influenced by a smaller population of women in the fertility age, especially in the optimum fertility age, which consequently becomes a major cause of the childbearing crisis in Serbia. The childbearing crisis is also exacerbated by the continual emigration from Serbia, most notably of young people. Research results have shown that the emigration potential of our society is still great. At the same time, there is no comprehensive response of the state to the demographic challenges. In addition to the improvement of overall social conditions, the policy response to low fertility should be continual, comprehensive and research- based. The findings on the non- participation of younger age cohorts of women in reproduction indicate to decision-makers that it is vital to make efforts to mitigate the barriers to bearing and raising one’s first child during the optimum period. To that end, it is essential to reduce not only the economic, but also the social and psychological cost of parenthood through support to modern forms of union between women and men and assistance in reconciling family and work, as well as childbearing and education. At the same time it is important to promote the modern family planning concept with a view to preserving reproductive health. The implementation of the above lines of action would also encourage the decision to give birth to the second and/ or third child in a family.
Политички одговор на недоволно рађање
Политички одговор на недоволно рађање
(POLICY RESPONSE TO SUB-REPLACEMENT FERTILITY)
- Author(s):Branislav S. Đurđev
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Demography and human biology, Economic development, Migration Studies
- Page Range:53-65
- No. of Pages:14
- Keywords:depopulation; ageing; policy response
- Summary/Abstract:The paper considers the consequences of and possible solutions to depopulation problems. These problems are already acknowledged, at both the global and local levels. In ageing countries, they are increasingly severe and the paper suggests that Serbia should bear in mind those experiences and think about the possibilities to implement some of them in its specific settings, since Serbia is a country with a developing economy and an ageing population. Examples of good and bad practices from the modern world are presented: increase in life expectancy, immigration incentives, restriction of the means of birth control, positive incentives for fertility increase and the measures for adapting to the expected demographic changes, most notably to all consequences of population ageing. Serbia lacks an effective family planning programme, so it is necessary to learn from the good practices of adapting to ageing on the global and local levels, since the trend of depopulation will continue. Globally, there will be major changes in how businesses will operate. For instance, there will be a rise in the production of goods for the third age; certain economic sectors (such as tourism) will increasingly focus on the elderly, which will allow spa tourism and cruises to thrive, while the countries affected by depopulation will try to use technology in order to compensate for the lack of labour force, where necessary. However, this last measure is not so easily feasible, and the problem is more likely to result in the reform of the pension system that entails an increase of the retirement age for the state pension and/or a decrease in the amount of the state pension. This, in turn, has a high political price and leads to a revolt by everyone - both workers and pensioners - since the share of the retired population will only be bigger and, consequently, its influence in democratic societies will become stronger. Taking all this into account, a country needs to enable a normal daily life to its senior population, for example by turning more schools into retirement homes or by building retirement villages. At the level of individuals, the challenges will be more diverse - activity will shift towards the older age, the focus will be placed on life-long education and work from home, many people will join additional pension schemes, heirs will be richer but they will wait for their inheritance longer, and health care expenses will become higher, which will lead to an increased dependence of older people, who will need more help on a daily basis as the time goes by, and this is a typical pattern - in addition to grandparents, parents and children, there will be one more generation to care for.
Политике усмерене на смањење економске цене родитељства у Србији
Политике усмерене на смањење економске цене родитељства у Србији
(Policies Aimed at Reducing the Economic Cost of Parenthood in Serbia)
- Author(s):Gordana Matković, Boško Mijatović, Katarina Stanić
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Family and social welfare, Public Finances, Socio-Economic Research
- Page Range:67-93
- No. of Pages:28
- Keywords:financial social assistance; child allowance; maternity/parental benefits; birth grant; policies reducing the cost of parenthood
- Summary/Abstract:The analysis of the cost of parenthood is based on the economic approach to fertility – a theory developed by Gary Becker, which assumes that individuals make rational choices about giving birth in order to maximize their well-being under the constraints of scarce resources, limited capacities, limited budgets, limited information and, ultimately, limited time. Public policies aimed at reducing the individual/private cost of raising children, therefore, influence fertility. There are a number of family/child cash benefits in Serbia aimed at reducing the direct and indirect cost of raising children – financial social assistance for families with children (FSA) and child allowance (CA) with the primary goal of poverty reduction; birth grant (BG) as a birth promotion policy measure; attendance allowance (AA) that aims to compensate the cost of the care for children with disabilities, and birth-related leave pay (BRLP) aiming to facilitate the work-family balance. Around 400 thousand children in Serbia are covered by cash benefits targeting poor children, who accounted for around 30% of the total number of children in 2016. Additionally, around 60 thousand families receive birth grants, which corresponds to more than 90% of the newly born. When it comes to childbirth related leaves, there were around 40 thousand beneficiaries in 2016, i.e. around 50% of the newly born children's parents were covered by maternity/parental leave. The total expenditures for cash benefits related to children amount to 1.2% of the GDP. Compared to the EU levels, the total expenditure is below the EU average, with the birth-related expenditures being higher and child allowance lower than the EU average. Both the coverage and the adequacy of cash benefits targeting poor children, from the perspective of meeting the basic needs, can be considered inadequate, the financial social assistance (FSA) in particular. However, when compared to the minimum wage and the disincentives for work, the scope for improvement is rather small. As regards BRLP, this program is adequate in terms of helping to achieve the work – family life balance, and it ranks among the more generous programs of this kind at the EU level. Its main weakness is the lack of flexibility, both in terms of the eligibility requirements and flexibility in use. BRLP should also be considered and analyzed vis-à-vis early childhood education and care (ECEC), and in Serbia these are only nominally appropriately linked, while in reality it is not always the case. Consequently, it is important to analyze the overall child and social protection system, including the relationship between cash and in-kind benefits. Finally, if the fertility of employed women is increasingly important for the overall fertility, then the policies aimed at facilitating work and family life balance are gaining relevance, as well. Hence, only the policies that achieve positive outcomes in all spheres, such as employment, poverty reduction and fertility, are desirable.
Млади родитељи на тржишту и ван тржишта рада у Србији
Млади родитељи на тржишту и ван тржишта рада у Србији
(Young Parents in the Serbian Labour Market: Balancing the Professional and Private Life)
- Author(s):Dragan Stanojević
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Family and social welfare, Human Resources in Economy, Socio-Economic Research
- Page Range:95-127
- No. of Pages:34
- Keywords:parenthood; labour market; domestic work; young people; Serbia
- Summary/Abstract:The position of young people in the Serbian labour market, including that of young parents, has been increasingly uncertain since the onset of the economic crisis. After a decade of political and economic isolation that witnessed very slow transformational changes, the economic crisis brought new uncertainties to young people's lives. This article addresses the balance between the professional and private responsibilities of young parents aged 18-35 years in Serbia, in the period from 2014 to 2016. Our main goal is to identify whether and how parenting affects young parents' position in the labour market, having in mind their social position. The analyses show that when a young man is expecting a child, he is more intensively engaged in the labour market – young fathers' employment rates are significantly higher compared to those of young men who are not fathers and, at the same time, there are significantly fewer unemployed and inactive men among fathers. Although their share in the labour market is larger, their position is less secure compared to that of young mothers. For women, the pattern is more complex. While a certain number of women are more intensively involved in the labour market – young mothers' employment rates are higher than those of young women who are not mothers, a significant number of young mothers temporarily or permanently withdraw from the labour market and become inactive. Although this general pattern is present across all social strata, the family–work balance depends on the social position of young people. The higher the educational level of young parents, the higher their employment rates and the lower their unemployment and inactivity rates are, and this formula applies to fathers and mothers alike. Higher education of parents reduces the gender gap in the labour market. The opportunities offered by the labour market, in terms of the possibility of achieving an equal position between men and women, are unequally distributed across educational qualifications, the professions practiced by young parents being no exception. Mothers and fathers with university degrees are more likely to get a (secure and well-paid) job, while those with primary education have the least chance of finding a (decent) job. Trends indicate a certain increase in employment rates in past three years, both for men and women; however, this increase is part of the trend of more and more insecure jobs and precarious work in Serbia. Risks that young people face postpone and impede their transition to parenthood. The position in the labour market is closely related to the gender division of labour in the private sphere. Women are more likely to stop working because of parental and family responsibilities than men. While they are inactive, they will seek for a job less often due to family reasons.
Како побољшати сексуално и репродуктивно здравље младих у Србији
Како побољшати сексуално и репродуктивно здравље младих у Србији
(How to improve sexual and reproductive health of youth in Serbia)
- Author(s):Katarina Sedlecki
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Family and social welfare, Socio-Economic Research, Sociology of Education, Pedagogy
- Page Range:129-143
- No. of Pages:16
- Keywords:youth reproductive health; youth sexual behaviour; education on the preservation of reproductive health; youth-friendly counselling centres
- Summary/Abstract:Youth sexual and reproductive health care requires a comprehensive approach and intersectoral cooperation, since it is necessary to achieve several goals, primarily to help adolescents to achieve normal sexual development and maturity, develop healthy sexuality and to prepare them for partner relationships based on equality, good communication and shared responsibilities, as well as to motivate them to act preventively and thus preserve their health and fertility. The most important courses of social action are in the areas of education and health care. The education of young people on the safe sexual behaviour and the preservation of reproductive health starts at birth, involving parents, teachers, peers, the media, including the Internet and social networks. Parents are considered the most important primary educators of children; however, in Serbia, they often have a passive attitude towards both their sexuality and the care for their reproductive health. The most important is to devise a systemic solution to this issue by introducing appropriate educational contents into primary and secondary school curricula. There is no mandatory form of youth awareness raising in the field of reproductive health in Serbia, although the meta-analysis of the results of 83 studies confirmed the positive impact of the implementation of the sexuality education programme in schools on the sexual behaviour of young people. It is also necessary to tailor health care services to the needs of young people through the development of appropriate counselling centres, in which they will receive the necessary information, advice and assistance to develop satisfactory sexuality and preserve their reproductive health. In Serbia, youth-friendly reproductive health counselling centres have been established in about one in four municipalities. The counselling centres work according to a model that is based on a multidisciplinary approach and active participation of young people. The counselling centres, however, are not appropriately supported within the health system reform. The introduction of the concept of selected physicians, the prioritisation of curative over preventive medicine, the progressive decrease of the number of paediatricians and gynaecologists in primary health care, and the inability to maintain a record of the health services provided to young people in the counselling centres have challenged not only the further development of youth counselling centres but also their survival. Successful youth sexual and reproductive health care programmes should be comprehensive and long-term supportive of the individual and broader social agenda. The most important are economic support measures, creating a safe environment and facilitating education, intervention directed at parents, extended family, partners and peers, programmes for youth at the local community level, education of young men with a view to reducing gender-based disparities, as well as the adoption and implementation of laws that support the sexual and reproductive health and the pertinent rights of youth, media campaigns and broadband communication programmes. Such programmes are expected to eliminate the barriers to both safer sexual behaviour and the health and fertility care of young people.
Промена парадигме о демографском старењу
Промена парадигме о демографском старењу
(Changing the Paradigm of Demographic Ageing)
- Author(s):Mirjana Devedžić
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Demography and human biology, Nationalism Studies, Rural and urban sociology
- Page Range:144-163
- No. of Pages:20
- Keywords:demographic ageing; paradigm; change; active ageing
- Summary/Abstract:Demographic ageing is a universal process that transforms the society. Although considered a civilization's achievement, since it has caused the decrease of mortality and unwanted fertility, it generates a number of social "disorders" that require radical solutions. The controversy of the causes and effects of population ageing is also additionally stirred up by the incongruity between the pace of the processes that influence it and the demographic ageing process itself, which is very intense, especially in the developed world. As a result, demographic ageing is referred to as a revolution, although a silent one. Experts have labelled it as the most challenging demographic phenomenon in the 21st century, a process that changes the world.Population ageing is a relatively recent phenomenon, although reflections about old age have always existed. The models on which the society's treatment of the elderly has been based have developed pragmatically, mostly as a spontaneous response to specific circumstances. History has shown that age-related behaviour is ambivalent, depending on social and historical circumstances. Thus, there have been many examples of appreciation of seniors, but also of sacrificing them. The industrial society has reduced the authority of seniors by specifying the age at which they are to withdraw from activity. Therefore, old age is perceived as a weakness, social isolation and passivity. This stereotype has been the basis for the dominant paradigm of old age and ageing, which is focused on taking care of the elderly. With the increase of elderly people's share in the total population and the ever-increasing age imbalances, such a paradigm has become unsustainable. It has caused increased public expenditures and has hindered the functioning of the social and economic systems.The new active ageing paradigm was officially promoted in the early 21st century and is based on the recognition of the potential of the elderly, the respect of their knowledge, skills and competences. It is implemented at both the collective and individual levels and advocates an active attitude towards life. It is founded on the belief that older people today are not the same as they were the past, that they have greater vitality and different lifestyles. The old population is not a homogeneous group; it consists of many generations that have shaped their attitudes, including towards old age, under various life circumstances. This is especially important when the largest baby boomer generation becomes a part of the elderly population cohort, carrying the label of an optimistic generation. Hence, active ageing is an adequate policy response to contemporary ageing trends and characteristics of seniors, and the early decades of the 21st century are the right time to create a stimulating environment for the implementation of the new paradigm.The change in the paradigm was inevitable. This is indicated by numerous demographic arguments. The estimated increase of the share of people over 65 years of age is particularly high in Europe (from 18.2% in 2017 to 27.8% in 2050). The population over the age of 80 will double its size in the same period (their share will increase from 5% to 10%). In Serbia, which is one of the oldest European countries, seniors in 2017 already account for 19.2% of the total population and exceed the number of youth aged under 15 years by 22%. The implementation of the active ageing paradigm becomes a necessity, in order to create the conditions for sustainable development in spite of the generational imbalances.The concept of active ageing has evolved from a good idea (insufficiently articulated and subject to different interpretations) to an efficient mechanism for creating an all-generations-friendly society. During that transition, the new paradigm has been interpreted in various ways: sometimes as productive ageing, sometimes as healthy and successful ageing. The traps of misinterpretation are in the assumptions that health and physical activity are preconditions for active ageing. This has created excuses for new forms of exclusion of the elderly, especially those who are ill or in the fourth age. The proper interpretation of the new paradigm entails all forms of social inclusion of seniors of all ages, which contribute to the personal well-being and well-being of the society, in line with their abilities and affinities. It seems that the fundamental prerequisite for active ageing is the building of a humane society, education that promotes intergenerational connectivity, and prepares and motivates people for a quality life in the old age. The ultimate outcome is social cohesion of all age groups.The change of the paradigm has taken place on several tracks and it can be considered from several perspectives. For the change to happen, it has been necessary to redefine old age from being a period characterized by passivity to an age that has the potential for activity; to make a transition from thinking about the old age to thinking about ageing; to acknowledge the increasing age diversity among the seniors. One way of looking at this also poses dilemmas about the coexistence of the old and the new paradigm, and the question of whether the old paradigm is only sliding towards the fourth age. Finally, a more complex insight into the paradigm shift shows that the affirmation of seniors in the context of active ageing has resulted in a parabolic path of their status in the society. The pre-industrial and the forthcoming more developed post-industrial societies are characterized by a greater degree of social inclusion of the elderly (the beginning and the end of the parabola), whereas as the period in between (and the central part of the curve) treated old age as a social category and a criterion by which the society is divided.
Млади и масовно исељавање из Србије: шта нам је чинити
Млади и масовно исељавање из Србије: шта нам је чинити
(Youth and Mass Emigration from Serbia: What are We to Do)
- Author(s):Mirjana Bobić
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Demography and human biology, Economic development, Migration Studies
- Page Range:164-189
- No. of Pages:26
- Keywords:youth; Serbia; emigration; circulation; development
- Summary/Abstract:According to the OECD immigration data, 236,743 Serbian citizens migrated in the period 2008–2015, with as many as around 60,000 in 2015 alone. As a rule, emigrants are younger, more vital and better educated people and, as such, more adaptable than the domicile population. Their departures contribute to the further devastation of the country in terms of its demography, economy, society, technology, culture and environment. It is hard to expect that this outmigration might cease in the years to come given the strong push factors, work force globalization and "talent hunting", instigated by the most developed or core capitalist countries, and especially due to the great mobility of economic migrants and highly educated professionals. The related consequences for the state could be enormous and they should be dealt with as soon as possible by implementing public measures targeted at both those who are staying and those who are eager to leave. The paper considers mobility as one of the dimensions of contemporary globalization, the latter perceived as a big accelerator of social, technological, economic and cultural changes, spreading beyond the national boundaries. Accordingly, our basic assumption has been that the mobility of youth (18–34) per se is an optimal strategy for enhancing human resources and social capital, networking and getting involved in innovations and the global development. However, the problem that we have identified is that our state fails to recognise the potential benefits of this mobility, for highly educated people in particular, and therefore does not undertake actions aimed at creating systemic and continuous programmes of linking with "overachievers", so that mobility might become a developmental resource, especially at the local level. In this vein, this paper attempts to examine the current discourse on youth emigration and to establish outmigration as a potentially winning option for social advancement and economic progress. On this track, it seems, first and foremost, that it is necessary to accept the fact that emigration will continue owing to the strong pull factors existing in the destination countries, such as the availability of high-quality universities, specialization opportunities, skill upgrading, human capital enhancement, attractive employment opportunities and an abundance of personal life related chances and choices. Seen through such lenses, migration appears as an individual copying strategy as much as a household one, aimed at risk reduction and the diversification of income sources. Migration is massively facilitated by the current migration patterns and the prevailing global migration systems, migration networks, recruitment programmes, fast and easy communication, affordable transportation etc.
Млади у науци и високом образовању у Србији: останак или одлазак с повратном картом
Млади у науци и високом образовању у Србији: останак или одлазак с повратном картом
(YOUNG PEOPLE IN SCIENCE AND HIGHER EDUCATION IN SERBIA: STAYING HERE OR DEPARTURE WITH A RETURN TICKET)
- Author(s):Vladica Cvetković
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Higher Education , Migration Studies, Human Resources in Economy
- Page Range:190-209
- No. of Pages:20
- Keywords:university staff; faculties; higher education financing
- Summary/Abstract:The paper discusses the causal role and responsibility of the higher education (HE) system in Serbia for the severe "brain-drain" in this country. Two groups of young people presently active in the HE system are discussed separately, namely HE staff and students. The HE system is responsible for at least two, possibly main controlling factors of "brain-drain": 1) non-transparent and unfair selection in the recruitment and employment of university staff and 2) the lack of an enrolment policy. In the recruitment processes at Serbian state universities, the principal selection is usually made during the immature career stage of the candidates; any mistake in the selection cannot be rectified later on, because all the subsequent stages in recruitment are promotions, rather than competitions. This mode of employment at universities generates dissatisfaction among many young individuals of high personal qualities; as a result, they decide to leave the country. On the other hand, due to the lack of any control in the enrolment policy, the Serbian HE system has been constantly producing graduates that are not relevant for the labour market, either in Serbia or abroad. These graduates also decide to emigrate, but they are not offered to work abroad in the specializations they had studied for; instead, they have to be willing to take low-skilled jobs. The enrolment policy can be designed only after substantial changes to the model of state financing of HE in Serbia, which is currently almost entirely based on input criteria, with funding amounts calculated solely on the basis of the number of students at individual (!) faculties. The paper suggests several problem-solving mechanisms and emphasizes that their implementation will require a consensus in the academic and scientific community.
Значај политичког одговора за демографску будућност Србије
Значај политичког одговора за демографску будућност Србије
(Why Is It Important to Have a Policy Response to Future Demographic Challenges in Serbia?)
- Author(s):Vladimir Nikitović
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Demography and human biology, Migration Studies, Sociology of Politics
- Page Range:211-228
- No. of Pages:18
- Keywords:migration; below-replacement fertility; population policy; EU enlargement; sustainable demographic development
- Summary/Abstract:The paper lists some of the most important, or at least the most striking demographic challenges that Serbia is already facing or will do so in the near future. Their common denominator is that they require a long-term strategy, which, by its very nature, cannot depend on short- and medium-term political goals. The paper's considerations rely on the recent population projection of Serbia, which was grounded on two general concepts – the post-transition recovery of the total fertility rate in accordance with the model presented in the 2015 World Population Prospects, and the “migration cycle model” assuming that all of Europe will eventually experience the transition to net immigration. The first concept assumes that the TFR will converge to the long-term level projected for Southern Europe (1.8) in 2100, while the second implies the realization of the EU enlargement to the East as a pivotal condition for a hypothesis on the migration transition with a symbolic turning point in the transition process (2035). The greatest chances are that the population of Serbia will be reduced by more than a quarter between 2015 and 2055, which puts it among the countries set to experience the strongest decrease (over 15%) in global terms – mainly countries of the Former Eastern Bloc. The old-age dependency ratio is likely to grow by 75% by mid-century, which is certainly the most important long-term demographic implication of future trends. Yet, that rise has its limits. Therefore, the next four decades will be the most challenging period of getting used to the new demographic reality, which, in view of the modern concept of population policy (quality before quantity), does not necessarily have to be bad. One of the conclusions is that a significant increase in the total fertility rate, i.e. up to and around the replacement level of 2.1, which current official projections consider as the ultimate objective of population policy, is far beyond the possible outcomes. Therefore, the transition towards stable net immigration will become more and more important over the coming decades, bearing in mind the current negative population momentum and the lag in positive effects of a possible rise in fertility rates. However, Serbia is currently far from either a significant increase in fertility or an attraction for immigrants. For this reason, in addition to incentive measures to increase birth rates, the primary goals of population and economic policies should relate to reducing net emigration, and raising the education level and economic activity of the population in the upcoming period.
