ПРОСТОРНО-ДЕМОГРАФСКА ПОЛАРИЗАЦИЈА РЕПРОДУКТИВНОГ ПОТЕНЦИЈАЛА СРБИЈЕ – ОГРАНИЧЕЊЕ РАЗВОЈНИХ ПОЛИТИКА
THE SPATIAL-DEMOGRAPHIC POLARIZATION OF SERBIA’S REPRODUCTIVE POTENTIAL – THE LIMITATION OF DEVELOPMENT POLICIES

Author(s): Vladimir Nikitović
Subject(s): Gender Studies, Sociology, Welfare systems, Family and social welfare
Published by: Институт друштвених наука
Keywords: Birth Promotion Strategy; sex ratio at ages 20–39; balanced spatial development; population projections; migration
Summary/Abstract: The paper’s underlying hypothesis is that the fulfilment of most of the National Birth Promotion Strategy objectives is substantially limited by the observed spatial patterns of the gender imbalance in the population at prime reproductive ages due to the continuous impact of internal and international migration. Exante valorisation of the Strategy objectives at district level, within the optimistic scenario of Serbia’s demographic development until 2050, was interpreted from the angle of the reference scenario, which is not based on the effects of the population policy but rather on the theoretical and empirical considerations of the possible changes in the components of the population dynamics, and from the viewpoint of a hypothetical zero­migration scenario. Although persistent implementation of pronatalist measures would alleviate adverse demographic trends at the national level, most notably by increasing the total number of live births in Serbia after 2035, this would reflect an entirely unbalanced spatial pattern of the country’s population development. Demographic vitality would only be manifested in the zone around the Danube­Morava corridor where the largest urban centres are concentrated, whereas almost all border and predominantly mountainous areas, especially in the east and southeast of the country, would face an unsustainable demographic development in the long term. Therefore, the urgency of adopting adequate policy documents aimed at reducing the adverse impact of international migration, which is highly regionally selective, as well as of balancing the regional and district development levels as the drivers of internal migration, is indisputable.

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