Политички одговор на недоволно рађање
POLICY RESPONSE TO SUB-REPLACEMENT FERTILITY

Author(s): Branislav S. Đurđev
Subject(s): Demography and human biology, Economic development, Migration Studies
Published by: Институт друштвених наука
Keywords: depopulation; ageing; policy response
Summary/Abstract: The paper considers the consequences of and possible solutions to depopulation problems. These problems are already acknowledged, at both the global and local levels. In ageing countries, they are increasingly severe and the paper suggests that Serbia should bear in mind those experiences and think about the possibilities to implement some of them in its specific settings, since Serbia is a country with a developing economy and an ageing population. Examples of good and bad practices from the modern world are presented: increase in life expectancy, immigration incentives, restriction of the means of birth control, positive incentives for fertility increase and the measures for adapting to the expected demographic changes, most notably to all consequences of population ageing. Serbia lacks an effective family planning programme, so it is necessary to learn from the good practices of adapting to ageing on the global and local levels, since the trend of depopulation will continue. Globally, there will be major changes in how businesses will operate. For instance, there will be a rise in the production of goods for the third age; certain economic sectors (such as tourism) will increasingly focus on the elderly, which will allow spa tourism and cruises to thrive, while the countries affected by depopulation will try to use technology in order to compensate for the lack of labour force, where necessary. However, this last measure is not so easily feasible, and the problem is more likely to result in the reform of the pension system that entails an increase of the retirement age for the state pension and/or a decrease in the amount of the state pension. This, in turn, has a high political price and leads to a revolt by everyone - both workers and pensioners - since the share of the retired population will only be bigger and, consequently, its influence in democratic societies will become stronger. Taking all this into account, a country needs to enable a normal daily life to its senior population, for example by turning more schools into retirement homes or by building retirement villages. At the level of individuals, the challenges will be more diverse - activity will shift towards the older age, the focus will be placed on life-long education and work from home, many people will join additional pension schemes, heirs will be richer but they will wait for their inheritance longer, and health care expenses will become higher, which will lead to an increased dependence of older people, who will need more help on a daily basis as the time goes by, and this is a typical pattern - in addition to grandparents, parents and children, there will be one more generation to care for.

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