Regional household poverty and mobility analysis – a transition probability approach
Regional household poverty and mobility analysis – a transition probability approach

Summary/Abstract: The main objective of this paper was to estimate and analyse transition-probability matricesfor all 16 of Poland’s NUTS-2 level regions (voivodeship level). The analysis is conducted in termsof the transitions among six expenditure classes (per capita and per equivalent unit), focusingon poverty classes. The period of analysis was two years: 2015 and 2016. The basic aim was toidentify both those regions in which the probability of staying in poverty was the highest and thegeneral level of mobility among expenditure classes. The study uses a two-year panel sub-sampleof unidentified unit data from the Central Statistical Office (CSO), specifically the data concerninghousehold budget surveys. To account for differences in household size and demographic structure,the study used expenditures per capita and expenditures per equivalent unit simultaneously. Toestimate the elements of the transition matrices, a classic maximum-likelihood estimator was used.The analysis used Shorrocks’ and Bartholomew’s mobility indices to assess the general mobilitylevel and the Gini index to assess the inequality level. The results show that the one-year probability of staying in the same poverty class variesamong regions and is lower for expenditures per equivalent units. The highest probabilities wereidentified in Podkarpackie (expenditures per capita) and Opolskie (expenditures per equivalent unit),and the lowest probabilities in Kujawsko-Pomorskie (expenditures per capita) and Małopolskie(expenditures per equivalent unit). The highest level of general mobility was noted in Małopolskie,for both categories of expenditures.

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