Възможност за приложение на разклоняващи се стохастични процеси при изследване на демографски явления
A Possibility for Applying Branching Stochastic Processes in the Study of Demographic Phenomena

Summary/Abstract: The article offers a mathematical model, which is a generalization of the class of branching stochastic processes and corresponds biectivly to the demographic processes: fertility, mortality, migration, and development of the population. It may be applied to the data published by the National Institute of Statistics. Principally, the possible presenting of the model as an algorithm allows for the unique in real life demographic processes to be re-created repeatedly by means of computer based simulation procedures. Thus, the multitude of realizations (trajectories) of the process may be used in the statistic assessment of its tendency. The mathematical model has been outlined through a consecutive fixing of random variables; events; measuring of events by means of probability measurement and construction of a probability model. A transition has been maid towards a stochastic process which, as a result, has been generalized.

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