Пресмятане на перспективни проекции на демографските процеси на доживяване, раждаемост и смъртност на жените в България чрез стохастични уравнения
Calculating Demographic Projections of Bulgarian Women by Stochastic Renewal Equations

Summary/Abstract: It is well known that branching stochastic structures appear as mathematical models of some real demographic problems in the pioneer papers of Bienayme (1845) and Galton and Watson (1874). Since then the developed theory of branching processes is very often applied in the demography. Remember that the terminology and the modern mathematical base of the branching process was introduced by A. N. Kolmogorov and his research group in 1940-ties. In the pres-ent paper we consider the demographic processes of the birth, survival and death of the women in Bulgaria, in the period of 1975–2001. The main purpose of the paper is to construct some stochastic models of this phenomenon applying general branching processes of Crump – Mode – Jagers.

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