Методи за прогнозиране на населението по населени места и териториални единици
Methods of Population Projections by Populated Areas and Territorial Units

Summary/Abstract: Forecasting of the population figures and structure by inhabited areas and territorial units becomes extremely important in the contemporary complex and dynamic economic and social conditions. Whatever the success achieved in the forecasting methodology, science still lags behind the needs of practice. The methods used can conditionally be united into three basic groups: demo-statistical, demoeconomic and complex ones. The demo statistical methods are based on tendencies manifested in the processes which condition them. By essence they are extrapolation methods. They include also the method of population movement by statistical, extrapolated and modelled coefficients of mortality and birthrate by age. The demoeconomic methods derive from the economic conditioning of the demographic processes. The most widely applicable among them on the level of inhabited areas and microregions has become the method of labour balance which uses the population distribution by demographic groups — the demoforming, the demoservicing and the economically inactive groups. A methodology is worked out for the chain-coordinated utilization of the method of population movement by hypothetic models for a mortality and birthrate according to age, and the method of the labour balance by demographic groups. This methodology relies on the advantages of both methods. On its basis opportunities are created for more realistic and fuller projection of the population's perspective number and structure. Its specific application by villages, cities and microregional units has been indicated.

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