Dyfuzja autorytaryzmu? Geopolityczna bitwa o Mołdawię i jej możliwe implikacje
Diffusion of Authoritarianism? The Geopolitical Battle for Moldova and Its Possible Implications

Summary/Abstract: Security, both at national and international level, is undergoing dynamic changes as a result of the emergence of new threats and challenges. In the field of international security architecture particular attention is drawn to the growing need of building resilience of a state. It is important not only to focus on the policies of the great powers but to also pay attention to small and vulnerable states that have intensified their actions on the international stage, increasing efforts particularly to strengthen their own security. In the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine, there is an emerging need to identify key security challenges. In Republic of Moldova not only has the aggression exacerbated the already current threats, but it has also precipitated new challenges, forcing the republic to rethink its European Union integration strategy. The activity of Russian Federation in the region has a significant impact on the level of security of Moldova as well as that of other states, which makes an analysis of these activities extremely relevant. Analysis the situation of Moldova in the light of the opportunities and threats related to the European integration process and Russia’s destabilising activities is an important area of research, especially in the period of systemic transformation, during which the country encounters numerous barriers, including those of an authoritarian nature. The Republic of Moldova has embarked on a difficult process of integration into the EU and faces authoritarian obstacles, stemming from both the destabilising actions of Russia and the attitudes of a section of Moldovan society that does not support the chosen path. Therefore, how do external actors, in particular Russia, and internal conditions influence the inhibition of political transformation processes and what are the consequences of these actions, especially at the political and social levels? Based on the research question, the following assumption was made: Russia influences Moldovan politics and society through the tools and mechanisms used in hybrid warfare aimed at destabilising the state and, consequently, distancing it from EU integration. The main thesis of the article is that the effectiveness of EU integration depends mainly on the ability to counter external destabilising influences and the role of the political elite in shaping the state’s domestic and foreign policy. Therefore, the aim of the research is to characterise and analyse Russia’s destabilising activities and their potential consequences for the integration process, as well as to assess Moldova’s adaptability to the changing international security environment and the EU in the study area. The research focuses on the interplay of domestic events and changing external influences, including an analysis of the phenomenon of hybrid warfare, which affects all spheres of social and political life. First, the political system of Moldova is discussed, identifying the key factors influencing the situation in the country. One of the key elements of this article is the discussion of the phenomenon of hybrid warfare, which is at the centre of the research, so the next section focuses on the characteristics and analysis of the threats resulting from Russia’s actions, which have a destabilising effect on the situation in the country, while taking into account the activities of internal actors. Key importance was also attributed to the activities of the European Union, whose support for European standards in the systemic transformation process is significant. Accordingly, the final part of the paper is devoted to selected EU actions in favour of Moldova that enhance its chances of building resilience and deepening its integration processes with the EU and adapting to changes in the international security environment. The paper concludes with a summary along with key conclusions. The research is conducted basing on the desk research method and critical analysis of documents.

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