Rekomendacje inwestycyjne a realia gospodarcze: nadmierny optymizm wśród analityków giełdowych
Investment Recommendations and Economic Reality: The Over-Optimism Among Stock Market Analysts

Summary/Abstract: The authors argue that many analytical reports published by brokerage houses, assessing the quotations of the companies registered at Warsaw Stock Exchange, tend to give too optimistic assessments of their future prices, not fully justified by fundamental variables reflecting the actual situation of those enterprises, their market prospects, and macroeconomic environment. Apart from subjectivism seen in those assessments and the general tendency to over-optimism, there is also an anchoraging effect in the sense that many stock market analyses tend to conform with the assessments presented in other reports published earlier by some reputable brokerage houses. Such behavioural effects influencing the assessments and forecasts made by market analysts, notably their over-optimism, diminish the true informative value of investment recommendations included in stock market reports. The above conclusions are supported by the results of the examination of stock market reports published by major brokerage houses in the period between 2009 and 2012, which included recommendations concerning the share prices of 20 major corporations noted at WSE.

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