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Turkey after the Failed 15 July Coup: A Challenge for the EU and the U.S.

Turkey after the Failed 15 July Coup: A Challenge for the EU and the U.S.

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy after the failed coup raises concerns for the European Union and the United States. Current developments in Turkey increase the political costs of Western leaders’ closer cooperation with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. At the same time, Turkey accuses its allies of hypocrisy and a lack of understanding. Thus, relations between Turkey and its Western allies remain at an impasse, which could force Turkish decision-makers to look for alternative solutions in the political and security spheres. This constitutes a challenge for the EU and the United States, especially in the face of a deterioration of relations with Russia and the migrant crisis.

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The Historic Paris Climate Agreement and Its Significance for Poland and the EU

The Historic Paris Climate Agreement and Its Significance for Poland and the EU

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

On 12 December 2015 in Paris, and for the first time in almost 20 years, the world’s countries, some 195 in total, reached a brokered deal with the objective to prevent irreversible climate change. Two key provisions of the agreement are its global scope, requiring all 195 countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the marked absence of an endpoint within the treaty. These provisions help create a system of coordination of global efforts against climate change, ending the EU’s isolation on the issue. This in turn will reduce the negative consequences of its climate change policy on the competitiveness of the overall European and Polish economies.

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№162: Austria in Central Europe: The Aspiration to Become a Bridge-Builder
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№162: Austria in Central Europe: The Aspiration to Become a Bridge-Builder

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Austria’s government has declared it will be a bridge-builder in the European Union between its western and eastern members. This is in fact rather more an endorsement of the Union cohesion on the eve of Austria’s presidency of the EU Council than a genuine offer to represent the Visegrad states’ interests in the EU. Vienna is also trying to strengthen its position in Central Europe using regional cooperation initiatives such as the Slavkov Triangle, Three Seas Initiative, and the V4+ format. However, Austria’s pro-Russia stances and economic conflicts of interest have burdened relations with regional partners. Common goals remain limited but include the development of transport infrastructure, an endorsement of the European integration of the Western Balkans and strengthening the EU’s external borders.

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№170: High Representative Federica Mogherini: Her Role and Performance in the EU Neighbourhood
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№170: High Representative Federica Mogherini: Her Role and Performance in the EU Neighbourhood

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s top diplomat, has strengthened coordination over EU external affairs but has not managed to make a significant impact in Europe’s closest neighbourhood. She succeeded in the speedy launch of the EU naval operation in the Mediterranean and the development of partnerships with several Sub-Saharan countries concerning migration, but in the case of the conflicts in Libya and Syria, the EU remained dependent on UN-led mediation. In relations with the eastern neighbourhood, Mogherini was side-lined by the Member States, which did not perceive her as an honest broker on Russian affairs. The next High Representative should make improvements in these areas while also following Mogherini’s path of close cooperation with the European Commission and other stakeholders.

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№172: Future of Europe: No Common Vision on the Horizon
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№172: Future of Europe: No Common Vision on the Horizon

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Melchior Szczepanik,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The debate about the future of Europe, reinvigorated by Brexit, has revealed important divergences between the Member States. France has largely set the agenda of the debate but failed to mobilise decisive support for most of its proposals. Despite some joint Franco-German initiatives, there is also clearly significant disagreement within the tandem. It will be difficult to find compromise on the most controversial reforms, such as those related to the eurozone and migration policy. Muddling through will probably remain the dominant feature of the integration process.

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№177: NATO Deterrence and Arms Control Policy in a World without the INF Treaty
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№177: NATO Deterrence and Arms Control Policy in a World without the INF Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Łukasz Kulesa,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

To maintain effective deterrence and internal cohesion in a post-INF Treaty world, especially in the face of the growing Russian missile threat to Europe, NATO needs to act in two areas. To enhance its military posture, the Alliance ought to quickly mobilise available defensive and offensive capabilities, plan and exercise their use, and be ready to further adjust its posture in the future. This includes studying the military rationale to deploy conventionally armed ground-launched intermediate-range missiles. To adapt its arms-control policy, NATO members should identify Russia’s most destabilising missile systems, both existing and prospective, and propose arms-control initiatives aimed at limiting them. Although the likelihood of achieving new agreements with Russia is currently low, a more proactive NATO arms-control position could help shape the discussion in the longer term and counter Russian efforts to divide the Alliance.

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№85: Trends in Force Posture in Europe
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№85: Trends in Force Posture in Europe

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Two opposite trends in force posture in Europe became evident in the last decade. Out of the six biggest military spenders among the OSCE participating States, four—France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom—have been on a downward trend in regard to their force posture: reducing the number of personnel, downscaling high-end capabilities and decreasing force readiness; the same is true for the U.S. military presence in Europe. The outlier was Russia. While the Russian armed forces were shrinking and disposing of large quantities of legacy equipment, the military capabilities required for high-intensity conventional operations were revamped, force readiness improved, and scenarios involving a large-scale conflict in the OSCE area practiced.

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№80: Germany’s Marriage to Austerity: Little Chance of a Quick Divorce
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№80: Germany’s Marriage to Austerity: Little Chance of a Quick Divorce

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The German government’s belief that the best recipe for return to growth in the euro area is a combination of budget cuts and reductions in wages is one that is faced with constant, if not rising scepticism in Europe. However, hopes that Berlin will drop its austerity approach should be kept in check. The country’s economic culture, doctrine, form of capitalism, as well as economic interests all speak to the policy’s durability than its quick departure.

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№68: Longing for a Boom: Prospects for Economic Development in Afghanistan
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№68: Longing for a Boom: Prospects for Economic Development in Afghanistan

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

The unrelenting military operations carried out in Afghanistan since the end of the 1970s brought about unprecedented devastation of the existing infrastructure and determined the abject economic condition of this state. Currently, the economic situation is improving, although Afghanistan is still facing a series of structural and other barriers (pervasive corruption, weak economic governance, and a shadow opium economy) to its growth, while reconstruction is still slowed down by continuing military conflict in the country. In the short-term perspective, Afghanistan will not be able to develop without serious economic assistance from donors. However, it may improve its economic standing in the longterm by supporting the development of traditional agricultural economy and creating conditions for local and foreign investors, which may provide capital and necessary know-how for exploring its vast mineral potential.

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№58: China’s Evolving Stance on Afghanistan: Towards More Robust Diplomacy with “Chinese Characteristics”
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№58: China’s Evolving Stance on Afghanistan: Towards More Robust Diplomacy with “Chinese Characteristics”

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

On the eve of the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is modifying its so-far lukewarm policy towards this country. The potential for a security vacuum after 2014 has raised China’s concerns about the situation in Afghanistan and its effects on the region, including possible terrorist attacks, an influx of militants, inter-ethnic fights, cross-border crime and more, all of which may have a negative impact on China’s security and domestic stability. These possible threats have forced the PRC to adopt a more proactive approach towards Afghanistan. The scope of tools is wide, and include the appointment of China’s first special envoy to Afghanistan, and a rising level of Chinese engagement in various international mechanisms focused on regional security. It creates a chance for the EU, to cooperate with Beijing on security issues.

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№56: NATO Narrows Military Gap on Its Eastern Flank
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№56: NATO Narrows Military Gap on Its Eastern Flank

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The decisions taken during the NATO summit in Wales will partially fill the security gaps on NATO’s eastern flank. The alliance will be better prepared for a number of traditional and asymmetric threats, emanating from Russia, against its members. However, the alliance has no answer for the strategic change caused by annexation of Crimea and possible dismemberment of the rest of Ukraine. NATO will also remain vulnerable to attempts to undermine its credibility—a path Russia may embark upon in pursuit of its broader strategic goals.

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№55: Out on the Edge Instead of Here in the Middle: The Four Reasons Why Britain Can’t Resolve Its Relations with the EU
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№55: Out on the Edge Instead of Here in the Middle: The Four Reasons Why Britain Can’t Resolve Its Relations with the EU

Author(s): Roderick Parkes,Julian Rappold / Language(s): English

Europe’s economic crisis has further damaged Britain’s already difficult relationship with the EU. While most Member States seek a deepening of Europe’s political and financial ties, London is trying to recover its scope for independent action, ordering a review of the EU’s competencies and mooting a membership referendum in 2017. The reasons are rooted in Britain’s historical experience of international relations, which persists in the thinking of the main UK-wide parties. In their understanding, Britain’s political trajectory and its geopolitical position are a boon, and not things to be modified through integration with neighbours. More than ever, London views the EU as an obstacle rather than a tool. Awareness of the UK’s specific attitude towards regionalism may offer room for compromise.

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№48: Governance in Norway and Poland: Can Unequal Partners Learn Anything from Each Other?
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№48: Governance in Norway and Poland: Can Unequal Partners Learn Anything from Each Other?

Author(s): Ole Jacob Sending / Language(s): English

Poland and Norway are unequal partners when it comes to governance and the management of issues such as security, migration and energy. One still ranks relatively low according to good governance indicators, having had to reinvent its whole system of government following the fall of communism; the other ranks high. One has spent two decades adapting to the EU’s rules; the other remains outside that framework but decided to sign an agreement on the European Economic Area that has made it a quasi-member without direct access to decision-making bodies. At the same time, the hierarchy—an element of inequality—hinders the learning process between the countries. Can Poland and Norway learn anything from each other? This paper, which sets out some of the thinking underpinning the GoodGov project, provides some answers. Following a brief review of the literature on policy learning, it identifies “experimentalist governance” as the model best suited to the two countries, before closing with some practical remarks about how such a model might look.

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№47: Brazil: A Giant Waking Up on the Inside
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№47: Brazil: A Giant Waking Up on the Inside

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

The Football World Cup may be an event for the global audience to celebrate, but not all Brazilians find it that entertaining. The mass protests demonstrating society’s dissatisfaction that began last year under the slogan “The Giant Woke Up” and Brazil’s economic slowdown persist. Despite the country’s outstanding economic prosperity and social progress in the recent years, Brazil has not yet been able to raise its standing on the international stage. Moreover, Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff’s limited interest in foreign policy, and her centralising leadership, especially ahead of the October presidential election, have turned Brazil into a far more hesitant and less global player than was the case under her two predecessors.

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№42: Sixty Years of Poland–India Relations: Towards a Genuine Partnership?
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№42: Sixty Years of Poland–India Relations: Towards a Genuine Partnership?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Relations between Poland and India are 60 years old, and have been traditionally described as “close and cordial.” Their history can be broadly divided into two periods—one between 1954 and 1989, and the second after 1989. Whereas the first is sometimes regarded as a golden age in Polish–Indian ties, the latter is seen more as a time of mutual disengagement and negligence. However, during the last a few years, we have observed the beginning of a third era, with renewed efforts to revive stronger cooperation. Trade is again on a clear upward trend, and high-level meetings take place more often. In fact, for the first time, both countries are fully independent and strong enough to create a robust and genuine partnership.

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№32: The Unexploited Potential of Poland’s Cooperation with Taiwan
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№32: The Unexploited Potential of Poland’s Cooperation with Taiwan

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

Taiwan, with its economy based on high technology and innovation and home to global IT companies which are among the world’s largest electronics manufacturers, should be an attractive economic partner for Poland. But the distance, limited channels of communication, lack of knowledge of each other, differences in economic development, and market access barriers in Taiwan make bilateral cooperation occasional and not intensive. A recent improvement in cooperation as a result of Taiwan’s decision to open its market to Polish pork and prospects for signing an avoidance-of-double-taxation agreement should be used as a good basis for deepening bilateral cooperation. What is more, better Cross-Strait relations create a chance for Poland to improve its economic presence in mainland China through closer cooperation with Taiwanese companies.

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№29: Human Security: Reactivation of an Idea?
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№29: Human Security: Reactivation of an Idea?

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

Human Security is a concept in which the general principles of human rights are interpreted at the perspective of a single citizen. Originally associated with security sector reform, Human Security offers a holistic approach to our understanding of security: all relevant actors and instruments should be included in the process of the efficient, effective and non-discriminatory provision of common state and human security within a framework of democratic governance. The importance of Human Security will probably increase in the future as an important category in foreign and security policies, and it will generally exert considerable influence upon the development of international relations.

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№27: The Perseverance of the Crisis in Mali
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№27: The Perseverance of the Crisis in Mali

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

After yet another Tuareg rebellion, followed by a virtual takeover of the northern parts of the country by various terrorist organisations and a highly destabilising coup d’état, Mali finds itself engulfed in a protracted political, security and humanitarian crisis. The worrying series of events in Mali has brought the country to the attention of international actors, including the European Union (EU), which is concerned about the lack of stability and security in the Sahel, an area adjacent to the immediate EU neighbourhood. Unfortunately, the majority of the foreign ideas on how to address Mali’s crisis lack an enduring commitment to improve the situation on the ground. Unless the international proposals are in line with the UN Secretary General’s recommendations from 29 November 2012 and veer towards long-term solutions, Mali is likely to remain destabilised for the foreseeable future.

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№26: Libya and Syria: Responsibility to Protect at a Crossroads
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№26: Libya and Syria: Responsibility to Protect at a Crossroads

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

The Arab Spring, especially the developments in Libya and Syria, revealed the persistent problem of a lack of appropriate and legally acceptable measures the international community could use to intervene in specific countries where people die because of violent acts by the authorities there. Although Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is seen as a new idea, it can be regarded as a manifestation of a trend that has already begun to affect the present but will have a major impact in the future. When the intervention in Libya started, it seemed that the importance of R2P would grow and exert increasing influence on international relations. The real significance of the UN response to the Libyan crisis was that for the first time the implementation and representation in practice of the R2P concept became real. However, it is quite clear now that the current Syrian crisis can serve as a catalyst for discussion on the necessary conditions for a military intervention, thus either strengthening the underlying trend of R2P or blocking it for years.

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№25: Emerging Latin America: A Case for Increasing Poland’s Interest in the Region
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№25: Emerging Latin America: A Case for Increasing Poland’s Interest in the Region

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

With the advancing “multipolarisation” of the world order, accelerated by the recent global financial crisis, Latin America is becoming one of the centres of international economic relations. High growth rates, relative resilience to the crisis and broadening business opportunities in the region have meant an improvement in the attractiveness of countries there, particularly Brazil, the sixth largest economy in the world. The changes in Latin America have found resonance in the policies of the largest countries of the European Union. The Polish government, too, should follow these moves to advance the internationalisation of domestic companies, strengthen Poland’s international position and take steps to become Latin America’s partner of choice amongst the countries that have joined the EU since 2004.

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