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№059: Democratic Opposition Alone Will Not Bring Democracy to Egypt

№059: Democratic Opposition Alone Will Not Bring Democracy to Egypt

Author(s): Amal Mukhtar,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The creation of a new, united secular opposition group in Egypt (the National Salvation Front, or NSF) in November 2012 met with a sigh of relief in Europe and the U.S. It is viewed as the only democratic force in a country torn between Islamism and reactionism. The NSF itself, however, represents but a fraction of society, lacks homogeneity, and seems to be driven by basic political motivations rather than a sense of responsibility, just like the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and its affiliates. More than two years after the fall of Mubarak and a year after the first democratic presidential elections in Egypt, only national reconciliation can save the country, which has seen a series of unconstitutional developments, remains without a parliament, and is on the brink of bankruptcy. Without reconciliation, all political parties, including NSF, will continue to lose support.

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№036: Belarus Before the Elections: The Struggle to Maintain the Status Quo

№036: Belarus Before the Elections: The Struggle to Maintain the Status Quo

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The campaign ahead of the elections to the Belarusian parliament, which are scheduled for September 23, shows the specific nature of its political system. The main factors that distinguish Belarus from democratic countries are the marginal importance of the parliament, concentration of power in the institution of the president, the almost invisible role of the opposition and a defective system of counting votes (such as early voting), which encourages fraud and manipulation of the results. At the same time, the authorities do everything possible to maintain the status quo in the country. Not only does that mean that no single oppositional candidate has a chance to get a mandate in parliament but also that Belarusian authorities will try to avoid implementing necessary reforms, such as liberalisation of the political system or privatisation of state-owned enterprises, because they are afraid of losing power.

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№034: Any Chance for Inclusive Intergovernmentalism? The Prospects for a Franco-Polish Partnership in the European Union

№034: Any Chance for Inclusive Intergovernmentalism? The Prospects for a Franco-Polish Partnership in the European Union

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Krzysztof Soloch / Language(s): English

The uncertainty that is currently surrounding the EU’s political and economic future calls for new, innovative approaches to how European politics is handled. Perhaps crucially, the ongoing crisis has exposed divergences between the two most influential EU member states—France and Germany—thus creating a window of opportunity for cooperation in alignments that are either new, or which previously have not been tested in a meaningful way. The authors suggest than one of the possible avenues of cooperation would be an enhanced Franco-Polish partnership—a mutually beneficial arrangement that could provide much-needed leadership in select EU policy areas and contribute to strengthening the European project on the whole. While not necessarily a universal winning formula for the crisis-stricken EU, a closer, more focused Franco-Polish cooperation on the Common Foreign and Security Policy, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, or the future of European integration in general could serve as a testing ground for a more inclusive intergovernmental approach to EU policymaking.

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№019: India in Afghanistan: Valuable Partner of the West

№019: India in Afghanistan: Valuable Partner of the West

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Recent conclusion of the Agreement on Strategic Partnership between Afghanistan and India has underscored India’s low-profile engagement in the war-torn country. This paper presents the record of Indian involvement in Afghanistan after 2001 and analyses the potential for increased presence at three distinct levels: civilian, military and regional. The author argues that in spite of Pakistani objections, the West should strengthen cooperation with India in reconstruction and stabilisation efforts in Afghanistan while providing strong incentives for constructive regional cooperation in South Asia. Even as NATO is gearing up for a responsible exit from Afghanistan, its neighbours are there to stay. Crucially, the role that India can play in Afghanistan needs to be reassessed. The upcoming conferences in Istanbul and Bonn offer an excellent opportunity in this respect.

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№018: European Perspectives for Moldova: Challenges and Obstacles

№018: European Perspectives for Moldova: Challenges and Obstacles

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

The paper pictures a broad panorama of factors that are likely to impact the future prospects of Moldova’s integration with the EU. The authors argue that Moldova’s best chance to move further down this path could depend on a favourable, if fragile, realignment among three EU member states whose interests seem to be spelled out in a sufficiently clear manner: Germany, Poland and Romania.

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№010: South Sudan on the Eve of Independence. Assessing the Viability of the World's Newest State

№010: South Sudan on the Eve of Independence. Assessing the Viability of the World's Newest State

Author(s): Berenika Stefańska / Language(s): English

W przededniu ogłoszenia niepodległości przez Republikę Sudanu Południowego (9 lipca) związanemu z tym faktem entuzjazmowi dorównuje jedynie niepokój o to, czy nowe państwo sprosta piętrzącym się przed nim wyzwaniom politycznym, gospodarczym i społecznym oraz w sferze bezpieczeństwa. Niektóre z tych problemów, jak dramatyczna sytuacja humanitarna, braki w rozwoju, dominacja gospodarki surowcowej jako źródła dochodów do budżetu państwa, słabość instytucji centralnych i ich rywalizacja z tradycyjnymi strukturami plemiennymi, a także nierozstrzygnięte spory graniczne z sąsiadami, upodabniają sytuację Sudanu Południowego do wielu innych państw afrykańskich. Kwestią otwartą pozostaje to, jakiej pomocy w pierwszych, trudnych latach niepodległości będzie mogła udzielić Sudanowi Południowemu społeczność międzynarodowa.

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Asserting the EU’s Mission in the Neighbourhood: Ten Recommendations for an Effective Eastern Partnership

Asserting the EU’s Mission in the Neighbourhood: Ten Recommendations for an Effective Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Kerry Longhurst,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English

The authors consider that the EU needs to assert its role and mission in the Eastern neighbourhood with more vigour. To do this the Eastern Partnership needs to focus on the job of building up the rule of law and democracy in Eastern Europe. Though much has been achieved over the past two years, in terms of creating up the institutional framework for EaP, the reality is that democracy is back sliding in the region, corruption is endemic and social and economic catch-up of EaP countries towards EU levels is uncertain. Without fuller democratisation and promotion of the rule of law in the neighbourhood the implementation of EaP will be stunted.The Eastern Partnership holds the potential to do more but only if the EU develops a ‘democratic acquis’ replete with a precise reform agenda. Building up administrations and rooting out the sources and practices that perpetuate corruption should be a priority, twinned with a better capacity to support civil society and non-registered opposition groups and political parties, as envisaged in the European Endowment for Democracy. Negotiations on trade need to be accompanied by meaningful benefits and concessions that partner states can enjoy in the short and medium term if economies are to grow. Finally, to meet the expectations of those countries that value their European identities and where public support for the EU exists the effectiveness of EaP can be bolstered by stressing Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union. Emphasising a ‘European Perspective’ will remind partner states and EU members of the right that all European countries have to join the EU if they share EU values and fulfil economic and political membership criteria.

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Israel and the Kurdish Question

Israel and the Kurdish Question

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Relations with the Kurds are an important element of Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East. It particularly applies to Israel’s relations with Iraqi Kurds, who are considered important regional allies. Israel is the only state in the region that openly endorsed the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) independence referendum and perceives the establishment of a Kurdish state as a chance to strengthen Israel’s position in the Middle East. Israeli policy towards the Kurds remains closely linked to relations between Israel and Turkey and Iran.

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Context and Scenarios after the Referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s Independence

Context and Scenarios after the Referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s Independence

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Regardless of whether the referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence takes place as planned on 25 September, its result is known: most Iraqi Kurds will vote in favour of independence. Depending on how the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) uses the result, a negative scenario—the outbreak of violence and further disintegration of Iraq—is still more probable than a positive one that would lead to incremental, peaceful negotiations with the central authorities in Baghdad on greater Kurdish independence. The pressure from regional allies of the Kurds, the U.S., EU, and the UN, seems to be intense enough to stop the Iraqi Kurds from unilaterally declaring independence even if they go ahead with the referendum.

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EGTCs: Assessment and Prospects

EGTCs: Assessment and Prospects

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Established in 2006, a legal instrument called European Groupings of Territorial Cooperation (EGTC) was intended to serve the objectives of EU cohesion policy and the Europe 2020 strategy. However, in Poland this instrument has been used at a small scale. The four EGTCs established on the Polish borders focus on projects that can be carried out through other forms of cooperation. Among the challenges that EGTCs should encompass are management of the environment or transport projects.

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The Implications of the Political Crisis in the Czech Republic

The Implications of the Political Crisis in the Czech Republic

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

President Miloš Zeman’s dismissal of the Czech Republic’s deputy prime minister and finance minister, Andrei Babiš, and the appointment of Ivan Pilný to the office ends a political crisis that has lasted since the beginning of May. However, it has revealed an intense dispute between, on one side, Zeman and Babiš, chairman of the party Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO), and Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka, the head of the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), on the other. The circumstances of Babiš’s dismissal have politically strengthened Sobotka five months before parliamentary elections.

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Cyprus Reunification Talks: Conclusions for the EU

Cyprus Reunification Talks: Conclusions for the EU

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Reunification of Cyprus is in EU countries’ interests. It would contribute to reinforcing stability in the Eastern Mediterranean region, benefit EU energy security, and help shape a new model of EU-Turkey relations. Thus, the EU should consider increasing its engagement in the reunification talks. It could play the role of guarantor of an agreement, as well as diminish Cypriot fears about security. Poland’s government could promote an intra-EU debate on that subject.

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Donbas Trade Blockade Poses a Challenge to Ukrainian Authorities

Donbas Trade Blockade Poses a Challenge to Ukrainian Authorities

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s ad-hoc decision to authorise the trade blockade of Russia-occupied parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions was taken to diminish the risk of political instability in the country. However, the blockade will not solve the problem of the lack of a coherent state policy towards that area and poses a challenge to Ukraine’s energy security. Poland, for its part, has instruments it can use to support the modernisation of Ukraine’s energy system.

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Protests in Belarus

Protests in Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Recent protests in Belarus pose a challenge for the authorities, because along with slogans calling for improved social conditions, which appeared for the first time since the 1990s, the demonstrators have increasingly formulated political demands. So far, the Belarusian authorities have reacted in a limited manner by imposing administrative sanctions almost only on the opposition activists. In the near future, the intensity of the demonstrations will probably continue and may turn massive. Violations of human rights by Belarusian authorities is possible. Moreover, new events may prompt Russia to engage in the country directly.

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Prospects for Compromise on Reform of the Common European Asylum System

Prospects for Compromise on Reform of the Common European Asylum System

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Supporters and opponents of the automatic redistribution of asylum-seekers have been unable to find compromise on changes to the Common European Asylum System for several months. Many Member States are against transferring the competences they hold on migration to the EU level. Thus, it’s worth working toward a solution that would enable relocation while maintaining Member State control over the influx of refugees to their territory.

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German Proposals for Increased Control of Online Media after the U.S. Presidential Election

German Proposals for Increased Control of Online Media after the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Miłosława Fijałkowska / Language(s): English

The 2016 U.S. presidential election showed that the fight for voters on social media may have resulted in the spread of false information, propaganda and disinformation. In Germany’s upcoming election campaign, a similar scenario may unfold. To prevent it, the German government intends to take preventive measures, but against new forms of online threats they may prove insufficient.

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Intelligence Reports on Russian Interference in the U.S. Presidential Election

Intelligence Reports on Russian Interference in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Reports published by American intelligence confirm Russian special services’ interference in the 2016 presidential campaign. Russia used cyberoperations, media and other material to discredit Hillary Clinton to decrease her chances of success in the election and improve Donald Trump’s prospects. Russia’s ambitious operation will have profound consequences for the new U.S. administration and its foreign policy, and for American intelligence agencies. Appointments in the Trump administration are coinciding with ongoing investigations into some of the new president’s advisors’ ties to Russia, and with two U.S. Senate panel inquiries on American intelligence failures and mistakes in cyberdefence.

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The Visegrad Group in Czech Policy

The Visegrad Group in Czech Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

The Czech Republic sees the Visegrad Group as a platform to build regional economic ties and an ad hoc political alliance, mainly, at present, as an instrument of collective opposition to mandatory migrant quotas proposed by the European Commission. Czech policy in the V4 is based on the principle that cooperation within the group cannot take place at the expense of close relations with Germany, nor can it become a policy of sustained opposition to European integration. The parliamentary election scheduled for autumn 2017, and the related focus of Czech politicians on internal matters, will reduce their activity in international forums, including the V4.

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The Visegrad Group from Hungary’s Perspective

The Visegrad Group from Hungary’s Perspective

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In the debate on the challenges facing Europe, Hungary’s ambition is to use the Visegrad Group (V4) to become a leader of a conservative political movement in the EU. Hungary has also strengthened its position within the group, in part due to the government’s firm position aimed at diminishing the effects of the migration crisis. The rejection of compulsory refugee quotas has unified the V4, due to which the EU might view Hungary as the driving force of the group. At the same time, the close similarity between Polish and Hungarian government positions on several issues enables Hungary to take advantage of the potential of Poland to reinforce its political position in the EU.

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Turkey’s New Anti-PKK Strategy: Consequences and Feasibility

Turkey’s New Anti-PKK Strategy: Consequences and Feasibility

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The Turkish government, empowered further by the state of emergency, adopted a new strategy in its fight with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The declared goal is the total liquidation of the PKK. It will contribute to deepening political polarisation at home while in the regional dimension it may lead to greater Turkish involvement in Iraq and Syria. It is also possible that the strategy will intensify the tension between Turkey and its Western allies. Both the situation in Turkey and in the region make the achievement of the Turkish politicians’ goal dubious.

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