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№23: How to Upgrade Poland’s Approach to the Western Balkans? Ideas for the Polish Presidency of the V4

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Ever since the European Union expressed its commitment and support to the Western Balkans states’ ambitions to join the Community, the region has for years constituted the central scene for EU enlargement and Common Foreign and Security Policy. Yet, some of the Balkan countries also wish to be included in NATO. Processes linked to accession to both organisations have shown that each country differs in its development and willingness to reform and that there are political difficulties regardless of these countries’ attitudes towards the EU or NATO. These factors make the Balkan agenda exceptionally complex and the relationship between the states and the EU and NATO filled with a range of ups and downs.

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№14: Libya: Too Hot to Handle

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The rapidly evolving events around the crisis in Libya will be the first test of this kind for the European countries that lead diplomatic efforts against Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi. France’s symbolic first strike in operation “Odyssey Dawn” was quickly followed by an American lead offensive. The American administration, deeply involved in Afghanistan and still effectively responsible for Iraq’s security, wanted to avert the impression that they were leading yet another military offensive against a mostly Muslim country. However, the crisis shows deep divisions within the international community, NATO, the EU and the arrayed coalition itself. It is a high-risk but also a possible high-gain type of operation although there is not enough evidence to suggest that Qaddafi has completely lost popular support or that the opposition speaks on behalf of the majority of Libyans. As the awakening wave is sweeping the Middle East, events in Libya set a precedent for other Arab countries and citizens, torn between their quest for dignity and reluctance to accept outside intervention.

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№6: NATO after the Georgian Conflict: A New Course or Business as Usual?

Author(s): Marek Madej / Language(s): English

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, unlike the European Union, could not have played a mediating role in the Russian-Georgian conflict. This was primarily dictated by the position of Russia, which was opposed to NATO involvement in the region and which saw NATO as a de facto party to the conflict. Georgia, on the other hand, has long expected an unequivocal decision by the Alliance concerning its Atlantic aspirations and membership, not to mention NATO’s immediate support for its position in the conflict. This placed NATO in an exceptionally delicate situation as a mediator, especially if one considers the Alliance’s present members’ diverging views on the question of Georgia’s NATO membership and their doubts and differing assessments of the causes of the conflict and where to lay the blame for its outbreak.

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№4: The European Army – How to Do It Right?

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

The current difficulties in the European Union, caused by the result of the Irish referendum, show that bold projects regarding European integration can be misunderstood and cause serious concerns. One of such initiatives is the idea of a European Army, which is likely to trigger equally ardent discussions. Hence, we propose to look at the issue from a different perspective. The idea of a European Army dates back to the beginning of the European integration process of the 1950s. Even though the Pleven plan collapsed, other projects, aiming to create joint European military capabilities, were later discussed regularly (e.g. attempts to reactivate the Western European Union in the 1980s). Today, almost a decade since the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) was launched, the discussion on the EU’s military capabilities is more dynamic than ever before. The reason is simple: the actual shape of the ESDP does not live up to the growing demand for a more active European Union made by many EU member states as well as by other significant actors in international relations.

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Preparedness and Surveillance: South Korea’s Response to COVID-19

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

South Korea’s success to date with preventing the spread of the coronavirus is because of widespread testing, high-tech surveillance, and its efficient healthcare system. The COVID-19 pandemic will harm the South Korean economy because of disruptions in supply chains and the decline in demand in foreign markets. While crisis-management solutions in South Korea may be an inspiration for European countries, the surveillance part may conflict with civil liberties.

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Przygotowanie i nadzór: Korea Południowa wobec COVID-19

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): Polish

Dotychczasowe sukcesy Korei Płd. w zahamowaniu epidemii koronawirusa są zasługą przeprowadzania masowych testów, systemu monitorowania społeczeństwa z wykorzystaniem nowych technologii oraz sprawnej służby zdrowia. Pandemia COVID-19 negatywnie odbije się na południowokoreańskiej gospodarce z uwagi na zakłócenia łańcuchów dostaw oraz spadek popytu na rynkach zagranicznych. Choć rozwiązania w obszarze zarządzania kryzysowego w Korei Płd. mogą być inspiracją dla państw europejskich, działania takie jak nadzór elektroniczny mogą stać w sprzeczności z wolnościami obywatelskimi.

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Delimitation of Maritime Areas in the Eastern Mediterranean as a Challenge for the EU

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

For several reasons, there are difficulties in delimiting the borders of the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and continental shelves in the Eastern Mediterranean. There are a number of conflicting claims that vary in scope, as well as various legal obligations, the lack of international recognition of several parties to the disputes, and the application of a policy of fait accompli on some of the sides. It is in the EU’s interests to create conditions for the conclusion of a multilateral delimitation agreement concerning a part of the basin west of Cyprus, and bilateral agreements for Cyprus with Lebanon and with Syria.

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Delimitacja obszarów morskich we wschodniej części Morza Śródziemnego jako wyzwanie dla UE

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): Polish

Trudności z wytyczeniem granic wyłącznych stref ekonomicznych i szelfu kontynentalnego we wschodniej części Morza Śródziemnego wynikają z kilku przyczyn. Są to liczba i zakres sprzecznych roszczeń, brak uznania niektórych stron sporów, stosowanie przez część z nich polityki faktów dokonanych oraz zróżnicowane zobowiązania prawne. W interesie UE leży stworzenie warunków do zawarcia wielostronnej umowy delimitacyjnej dotyczącej części akwenu na zachód od Cypru oraz dwustronnych umów Cypru z Libanem i Syrią.

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The Schengen Area and the Coronavirus Pandemic

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The coronavirus pandemic has prompted the Member States to reintroduce controls at internal Schengen borders. In response to their unilateral actions, the European Commission (EC) presented control guidelines aimed at protecting the flow of goods and returning citizens to their countries. At the EC’s request, country leaders also agreed to temporarily close the external borders of the EU and the Schengen area. These measures will ease tensions between countries and reduce the risk of paralysis of the single market. They may not, however, prevent further loosening of the Schengen agreement.

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Strefa Schengen w dobie pandemii COVID-19

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): Polish

Rozwój pandemii COVID-19 skłonił państwa członkowskie do przywrócenia kontroli na granicach wewnętrznych Schengen. W reakcji na te jednostronne działania Komisja Europejska (KE) zaprezentowała wytyczne co do kontroli, mające na celu ochronę przepływu towarów i powroty obywateli do ich krajów. Na wniosek KE liderzy państw uzgodnili też czasowe zamknięcie granic zewnętrznych UE i strefy Schengen. Środki te pozwolą złagodzić napięcia między państwami oraz ograniczyć ryzyko paraliżu wspólnego rynku. Mogą jednak nie zapobiec dalszemu rozluźnieniu układu z Schengen.

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Coronavirus Pandemic: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

For several decades, NATO has been developing crisis-management mechanisms to cope with natural disasters, humanitarian crises, and pandemics. However, during the first weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, the Alliance decided to focus on maintaining its capacity to defend territory and deter adversaries. Although this is NATO’s primary task, the lack of a visible response to the crisis may reduce public support for the Alliance, diminish its significance, and ultimately weaken its ability to conduct its collective defence mission.

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Pandemia COVID-19 – konsekwencje dla NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): Polish

NATO od kilku dekad rozwija mechanizmy zarządzania kryzysowego, w tym także na wypadek katastrof naturalnych, kryzysów humanitarnych czy pandemii. W pierwszych tygodniach pandemii COVID-19 za priorytet uznało jednak utrzymanie zdolności do odstraszania i obrony. Chociaż jest to głównym zadaniem NATO, brak widocznej reakcji na obecny kryzys może zmniejszyć społeczne poparcie dla Sojuszu, spowodować spadek jego znaczenia i w efekcie osłabić zdolność do prowadzenia wspólnych misji.

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The End of “Black Zero”: The Second Wave of Anti-Crisis Measures in Germany

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The prospect of dire economic repercussions from the coronavirus pandemic has prompted the German government to expand its intervention tools. The latest package puts the emphasis on helping the smallest companies and self-employed, offering more loan guarantees, as well as the possibility of temporary state purchases of shares in companies. The crisis is a challenge for fiscal policy—it will lead to a large deficit in public finances and to rising pressure on the German government to accept joint financial measures in the eurozone.

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Koniec „czarnego zera” – druga fala działań antykryzysowych w Niemczech

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): Polish

Perspektywa coraz poważniejszych reperkusji gospodarczych pandemii COVID-19 skłoniła rząd RFN do rozbudowy narzędzi interwencyjnych. Kolejny pakiet kładzie nacisk na pomoc dla najmniejszych firm i samozatrudnionych, zwiększenie gwarancji kredytowych oraz możliwość czasowego wykupu udziałów w firmach przez państwo. Kryzys oznacza wyzwanie dla niemieckiej polityki fiskalnej: pojawia się duży deficyt w finansach publicznych, rośnie też presja na władze RFN, by zgodziły się na wspólne narzędzia finansowe w strefie euro.

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The U.S. Fight against Coronavirus

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

The coronavirus outbreak is spreading throughout the United States. After its initial underestimation of the threat, the Trump administration has acted to fight against the pandemic, including the introduction of a national emergency. The effectiveness of these actions will be an important factor in whether Trump is re-elected. The limits on social life despite the enormous financial support from the government and the Federal Reserve have dramatically slowed the economy, heading into a recession. Public debt will increase much more rapidly, which may force budget cuts in the coming years.

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Stany Zjednoczone w walce z epidemią COVID-19

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

Epidemia COVID-19 rozprzestrzeniła się na terenie całych Stanów Zjednoczonych. Po początkowym bagatelizowaniu zagrożenia administracja Donalda Trumpa podjęła walkę z epidemią, m.in. wprowadziła stan wyjątkowy. Skuteczność tych działań istotnie wpłynie na starania Trumpa o reelekcję. Ograniczenie życia społecznego, pomimo ogromnego wsparcia administracji oraz Rezerwy Federalnej, dramatycznie zahamuje gospodarkę i doprowadzi ją do recesji. Wzrośnie też dług publiczny, co wymusi cięcia budżetowe w kolejnych latach.

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Dangerous Liaisons: The Alternative for Germany and Right-wing Extremism

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Until recently, links between the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and right-wing extremist organizations have not weakened the party’s record. Yet, after anti-Semitic and racist attacks, its image as a radical party is becoming an increasingly serious obstacle in attracting new voters and overcoming political isolation. Lack of prospects for participation in government and the fact that some of the grouping are under the surveillance of counter-intelligence may lead to a loss of votes and gradual marginalisation of the AfD.

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Niebezpieczne związki – Alternatywa dla Niemiec i prawicowy ekstremizm

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): Polish

Dotychczas powiązania członków Alternatywy dla Niemiec (AfD) z prawicowymi organizacjami ekstremistycznymi nie osłabiały jej notowań. Po atakach na tle antysemickim i rasistowskim wizerunek partii radykalnej staje się coraz poważniejszą przeszkodą w pozyskiwaniu nowych wyborców i przełamywaniu politycznej izolacji. Brak perspektyw na udział w rządzeniu i objęcie części ugrupowania obserwacją kontrwywiadu może doprowadzić do utraty głosów w kolejnych wyborach oraz stopniowej marginalizacji AfD.

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Financial “Shield”: Germany’s Actions to Face the Pandemic-Fuelled Economic Crisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The coronavirus pandemic carries the risk of a deep economic downturn in Germany. The government has decided to minimise this decline by enacting a liquidity support programme for companies and protecting employment. These actions increase the chances that the crisis will be milder and the economy will rebound faster in the second half of the year, assuming the health crisis is resolved. The decisions by Angela Merkel’s government have boosted a difficult discussion about the need for joint fiscal measures in the euro area.

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Reakcja Unii Europejskiej na epidemię koronawirusa

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): Polish

Różnice w podejściu państw członkowskich do COVID-19 doprowadziły do nieporozumień między nimi, utrudniając przeciwdziałanie rozprzestrzenianiu się choroby w Europie. Choć kompetencje UE w zakresie zdrowia publicznego są ograniczone, unijne instytucje podjęły działania, by wesprzeć państwa w walce z pandemią i zachęcić je do lepszej koordynacji. Konieczność sprostania pandemii nie tylko wymusi modyfikację programu Komisji, ale też wpłynie na kształt wieloletniego budżetu na lata 2021–2027, rozwój polityk sektorowych oraz przebieg konferencji o przyszłości UE.

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