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The International Dimension of the Fight for Aleppo in Syria

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The offensive by Bashar al-Assad’s military, supported by Russian troops, on Aleppo—Syria’s largest city—might be successful. This large-scale operation was facilitated by the improved relations between Russia and Turkey and because the United States has only limited military options at its disposal. If Aleppo falls, Assad will have control over territory inhabited by more than 60% of Syrians. The brutality of the Russian attacks in Aleppo may, however, carry a political price in the form of new EU sanctions. The clearly harsher rhetoric of Germany, France and the U.S. toward Russia also shows that these countries will not compromise on Ukraine in return for Russian concessions in Syria.

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Russia’s Military Exercises and the Prohibition on the Threat of Force

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Staging military exercises which include certain offensive elements or deployment of ballistic missiles in direct proximity of a border of another state do not constitute a violation of the prohibition of the threat of force stipulated in Article 2, Para. 4 of the Charter of the United Nations. However, their legality could be questioned if they were accompanied by a demand of a certain conduct by other entities. It would be difficult to prove that Russian exercises held close to the borders of the members of NATO constitute a violation of said prohibition or any other treaty norms. Still, NATO member states should jointly assess Russian actions as to their compliance with the legal prohibition of threats of force as an instrument of the foreign policy.

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The Arrest of Alleged Ukrainian Saboteurs in Crimea

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Russia has announced that it has intercepted a group of Ukrainian saboteurs in Crimea. The FSB has accused them of planning terrorist attacks on the peninsula during Russian parliamentary elections in September 2016. The event may serve as a pretext for Russia to increase pressure on Ukraine in order to make it unilaterally implement the provisions of the Minsk Agreement. Vladimir Putin’s declaration that he will not attend a planned Normandy Four meeting may also be interpreted to mean that Russia’s aim is to test a new variant of political communication with the West.

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NATO Warsaw Summit Decisions Regarding Libya

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

One outcome of NATO’s Warsaw Summit was a decision to strengthen the Alliance’s Southern Flank, by, among other things, declaring a readiness to act for the internal stabilisation of Libya and intensifying the anti-smuggling operation off the Libyan coast. Two positive decisions reverberated in the summit communiqué: unequivocal support for the new Libyan government and the need to coordinate NATO’s actions with the EU. The Alliance’s declarations, however, require a formal request from the Libyan authorities and specifications for Operation Sea Guardian. The Libyan government is most likely to ask individual countries for help with more urgent military tasks, such as the recent U.S. airstrikes carried out in Sirte after an official Libyan request.

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NATO-Ukraine Cooperation after the Warsaw Summit

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

At the Warsaw Summit, NATO decided to maintain its open-door policy towards Ukraine and to provide it with additional assistance. However, Ukraine cannot count on a membership perspective in the near future. Instead, cooperation will focus on adopting NATO standards and strengthening the military capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Alliance should help Ukraine’s government secure the country’s border with Russia, which would also allow for more security on NATO’s Eastern Flank.

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Conventional Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank after the Warsaw Summit

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

The groundbreaking decision at the NATO Summit in Warsaw on the forward deployment of combat forces on the Eastern Flank significantly strengthens the credibility of the Alliance’s deterrence against Russian aggression. However, further adaptation to the threat posed by Russia is necessary, especially through enhancement of NATO’s ability to rapidly mobilise and deploy larger reinforcements to Central and Eastern Europe. The continuation of the Alliance’s adaptation efforts will be dependent on Allied assessments of further Russian actions, the internal dynamics in key NATO countries, and sustainment of the wider increase in defence spending that only took hold in Europe in 2015 after years of cuts.

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Baltic States’ Intelligence Services Report Increased Threat from Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

An increasing and more aggressive level of Russian espionage was noted in the latest annual assessments by the counter-intelligence services of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Particular attention should be devoted to the activity of Russia’s internal security service (FSB) in its reconnaissance of border areas and in coordination with Belorussian intelligence services. Given the military potential of Russia and Belarus, these reports require preparation for a much broader spectrum of hybrid warfare scenarios in the region. In response, the Baltic States, in addition to a NATO forward presence and all members reaching the level of 2% of their GDP spent on the military, need to invest far more resources in their intelligence services, border protection, cybersecurity and countering Russian propaganda.

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President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda’s Address to the Warsaw Summit Experts’ Forum: NATO in Defence of Peace

Author(s): Andrzej Duda / Language(s): English

President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda Address to the Warsaw Summit Experts’ Forum

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Russia Beefs Up Military Potential in the Country’s Western Areas

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Russia has intensively strengthened its military in the Western and Southern districts. These activities are not simply a response to the decisions of NATO, which is strengthening its Eastern Flank, but are strategic in nature. They also pose a challenge for Ukraine and Belarus as Russia has increased the number and capabilities of its combat units operating near their borders. The Russians are more frequently using the notion of military superiority to achieve political goals in Eastern Europe and this is a serious challenge for NATO.

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The Escalation of the Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh: Causes and Probable Course

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The escalation of fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh was caused by Azerbaijan. The authorities there want to use the conflict to distract its population from impending economic collapse and worsening living conditions as a result of the falling price of oil. The resumption of fighting has resulted in an increase in nationalist sentiments on both sides. Russia may indeed be effective in reducing the tension on both sides of the conflict, but for internal reasons it also may be interested in further escalation.

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Russia’s Military Operation in Syria: A New Stage

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Russian President Vladimir Putin on 14 March announced his decision to remove part of the country’s military contingent from Syria. However, this step does not mean the end of Russia’s military presence in that country, especially since the aims of its operation in Syria have been only partially reached. Although Russia managed to strengthen Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and increase its own role in the peace process in Syria, the weakening of the so-called Islamic State failed and the intervention increased the terrorist threat to Russia itself. In return for its commitment to Syria, Russia did not obtain any concessions from the West on Ukraine, such as the lifting of economic sanctions by the U.S. and the EU.

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The Crisis in Libya and the Rise of Jihadism and Migration

Author(s): Alicja Minda,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Five years after the downfall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, Libya is the second most-destabilised Arab state after Syria, with multiple local centres of power, some 2,000 militias in intertwined conflict, a growing people-smuggling market and expanding terrorist organisations, namely Al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State. Located just 450 km from Europe’s shores, Libya may this year become the new centre of operations for jihadist movements, elevating the terrorist threat to Europe, as well as a major migration route should the process of forming a national unity government under the auspices of the UN fail and the Eastern Mediterranean route via Turkey and Greece be shut down.

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Renewal of Negotiations on Resolving the Transnistria Conflict

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 27–28 November, after a year and a half break, international talks on a resolution to the Transnistria conflict took place in Vienna. They were preceded by the signing of technical agreements facilitating everyday life for the inhabitants of the region which includes the Republic of Moldova and separatist Transnistria. Although the agreements do not guarantee a political settlement is forthcoming, their implementation may build trust between the parties. At the same time, Russia can use them to demonstrate it is an effective guarantor of peace in the post-Soviet area.

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The U.S. National Security Strategy: The Trump Administration’s Approach

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

The U.S. is departing from the assumption that American security and prosperity can be achieved through cooperation and engagement with other international actors. It is an adjustment to its rivalry with Russia and China, in which it finds at stake not so much the protection of the current international order but rather this order’s adaptation to American needs and interests. The Trump administration intends to achieve this goal by strengthening the military domination of the United States and by focusing on challenges from state actors, although the catalogue of threats still includes international terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.

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Military Dimension of the New U.S. and NATO Afghanistan Strategy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

According to the new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, winter will not stop intensified operations against the Taliban. With the increased U.S. and NATO troop level, Afghan forces will switch from defensive to offensive activities. Only stronger military pressure and other forms of influence taken together might impel the Taliban to negotiate with the government in Kabul. The political effects of the new strategy should be expected only in a longer-term perspective.

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Afghanistan: New Opportunities for Talks with the Taliban

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Since the end of the ISAF mission and new territorial gains by the Afghan Taliban, there has been a visible intensification of diplomatic efforts to convince rebels to enter into peace talks with the government in Kabul. Although the Taliban’s official conditions are still unrealistic, a number of new factors suggest negotiations are possible.

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Three Months of Russian Intervention in Syria: The Military and Political Implications

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

As Russia’s military operation in Syria passes the three-month mark, the milestone demonstrates not only the growing capacity of the country’s expeditionary forces (aviation in particular) but also highlights their weaknesses, primarily logistical problems and the lack of equipment. On one hand, such long-term actions will be a growing challenge to Russia’s finances, but for its military they are an opportunity to test equipment and new types of weapons. Russia’s engagement in Syria has not reduced its involvement in Ukraine. At the same time, the success of its military operations in Syria are important because they are intended to strengthen Russia’s position during any peace talks on Syria, which may have a secondary effect of increasing its importance, not only in the Middle East but also in the international arena.

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Russian Foreign Fighters: Time for Syria?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Foreign fighters have been successfully utilised by Russia during the conflict in Ukraine, where they formed a key element of the separatist forces. Due to Russia’s escalating involvement in Syria, and its Ukraine-based foreign fighters’ often and vocally professed desire to fight against the Islamic State, one could assume that Moscow, while officially denying rumours of being involved in ground operations in Syria, may not shy away from deploying such fighters there. However, this will carry risks far greater than those in Ukraine, and could yield negative consequences for Russia.

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№173: Turkey’s Soft-Power Crisis in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Since the 1990s, Turkey has been developing its soft power in Africa to support its economic and political expansion south of the Sahara. Schools and other institutions associated with the Fethullah Gülen movement (Hizmet) were instrumental in building Turkish-oriented local elites, raising interest in Turkish culture, and building Turkey’s image as synonymous with success. However, the fallout from the 2016 coup attempt in Ankara marked the definitive end of the synergy between Hizmet and the Turkish state. This created a new context in which Turkey’s pressures and direct interference in African governments’ affairs accompany a revision of its soft-power instruments. In times of increasing competition for influence on the continent, disillusionment about the neutrality of Turkey and other authoritarian newcomers to Africa—Russia, United Arab Emirates—raises the appeal of the EU as a partner.

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№50: Zakarpattia: A New Powder Keg in Ukraine?

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English

Some features of Ukraine’s southwestern Zakarpattia Oblast—geographical exclusivity, poor historical links with Ukrainian statehood, independence of local politicians, and ethnic groups’ aspirations for autonomy—could suggest similarities to Crimea. However, a key factor that rules out a repeat of the Crimean scenario is the limited influence of Russia in the oblast. It does not mean that the region is not exposed to any decentralization movements. It seems that now the biggest challenge to the central government in Kyiv regarding Zakarpattia are the ambitions of local elites who have both sufficient financial independence and political tools in the form of non-regulated Hungarian and Ruthenian issues to take part, in the most pessimistic assumption, in the region’s destabilization.

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