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(004) AFGHANISTAN: EUROPE’S FORGOTTEN WAR

Author(s): Daniel Korski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The international community has a second chance in Afghanistan. The appointment of a new UN special envoy and the upcoming NATO summit in Bucharest offer a chance for the coalition partners to adopt a new strategy and avert disaster. The problems are well known. The rule of Hamid Karzai’s government extends only weakly outside of Kabul. The Taliban insurgency will continue to grow stronger as winter ends. Despite the billions of euros spent, most ordinary Afghans have yet to see the beneﬁts in terms of security, access to justice and delivery of basic services. All these difﬁculties have been exacerbated by European and American policy disagreements. In their key criticisms of each other Europeans and Americans each have a valid point. While Americans tend to treat a political problem as a military one, Europeans have lagged behind the US in terms of ﬁnancial and military commitments, and have even failed to co-ordinate their own activities. In the run-up to Bucharest there will be an opportunity for both partners to strike a new ‘grand bargain’ where Europeans agree to increase their investment in exchange for a change in American strategy. A new common approach should be based around a strategy for political inclusion, increased resources, and stronger international leadership. This new strategy should be cemented in a new Bonn-type conference, which would bring together heads of states from the US, UN, EU and all of Afghanistan’s regional partners.

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(005) MEETING MEDVEDEV: THE POLITICS OF THE PUTIN SUCCESSION

Author(s): Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

Dmitry Medvedev’s election on 2 March 2008 offers EU leaders a new chance to overcome their disunity and put their uncertain Russia policy on a better foundation. Whatever his personal inclinations, Medvedev will be unable to behave like a democrat in his first years in office. EU leaders should cautiously welcome the new president’s election, but must wait and see whether Medvedev proves a willing interlocutor who can deliver. They should refrain from the foolish enthusiasm they displayed when the sober and coherent Putin succeeded the ailing Yeltsin in 2000. Instead they should test Medvedev with specific demands over energy policy, Kosovo, and Iran.Medvedev, a lawyer by training, has often been depicted as a “liberal”. Considering the alternatives and his own record, he may well be one of the better options to succeed Vladimir Putin, the outgoing autocratic president. Yet Putin will be looking over Medvedev’s shoulder as prime minister. In the cut-throat world of Russia’s clan politics, Medvedev needs Putin to “protect” him from the “siloviki” -- past and present members of the KGB/FSB. The new president starts in a position of weakness, as he lacks a strong clan of his own. A Putin-Medvedev double act would not be Russia’s first “cohabitation”. A similar deal was done when power passed from Yeltsin to Putin in 2000. Putin eventually broke free and became his own man when the siloviki triumphed over the former Yeltsinites during the Yukos affair in 2003. In time, Medvedev may do the same. Russia’s real power transition is likely to happen sometime after the election, if and when the new president puts his mark on the system. The time to assess Medvedev will be then.

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(007) CAN THE EU WIN THE PEACE IN GEORGIA?

Author(s): Nicu Popescu,Mark Leonard,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The EU has established itself as the main diplomatic broker in the conﬂict between Russia and Georgia. It should use this position to help forge a positive peace from a war which threatens the foundations of the European security order. Russia has used its conﬂict with Georgia to display its military power, reclaim a sphere of inﬂuence and frighten its neighbours. Rather than looking for punitive measures, the EU should respond to Russia’s demonstration of force with much stronger engagement for democracy, prosperity and security in the broader region - keeping tough measures towards Moscow on the table if Russia resists.This war was caused in part by the dysfunctionality of the previous ‘peace-keeping’ process in Georgia. The EU must work hard towards ensuring that any new arrangements are not unilateral and do not merely legitimate Russia’s de facto control. The EU should promote an international peace-keeping mission and offer to deploy a civilian reconstruction mission dealing with development, building conﬁdence and security between both sides, and tackling wider political issues. It should also encourage the United Nations to set up a commission of enquiry to help establish the truth on the causes and conduct of the war.Instead of focusing on short-term sanctions against Russia, the EU should move quickly to raise its proﬁle in the Eastern Neighbourhood and to help stabilise other conﬂict regions - paying attention both to old ‘frozen’ conﬂicts and potential new ﬂashpoints. The EU should also make a special commitment to Ukraine: It should recognise its right to EU membership in the future, agree to a more liberal visa regime, offer a solidarity clause backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and move to integrate Ukraine into the EU’s energy market.

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(032) EGYPT’S HYBRID REVOLUTION: A BOLDER EU APPROACH

Author(s): Anthony Dworkin,Daniel Korski,Nick Witney / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

The success or failure of Egypt’s transition to democracy will have huge consequences for the Middle East and for Europe. If the country overcomes the obstacles to political reform, it would set a powerful example for the region. But although the ruling Military Council appears committed to hand over power, it is governing in an opaque way and has resorted to summary justice to deal with protest and criticism. Some liberals also worry that the quick timetable for elections will favour the remnants of the old regime and the Muslim Brotherhood. The revolution has also exacerbated the precarious state of the country’s economy. Despite Egypt’s importance, however, the EU has struggled to achieve influence in the country. In March Ashton and Barroso proposed a new policy framework, which is a good start but should be strengthened, for example by cancelling Egyptian debt. In the longer term, the EU should take a more political approach and behave more like a regional power. For example, Europeans should say clearly that military leaders who resort to summary justice to deal with protest and criticism are violating fundamental political rights. EU officials must also be ready to engage with all Egypt’s political groups, including former NDP members and the Muslim Brotherhood. Europe needs to move beyond fear about migration to see the potential for longer-term economic benefits for both sides of the Mediterranean.

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(034) CHINA’S JANUS-FACED RESPONSE TO THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS

Author(s): Jonas Parello-Plesner,Raffaelo Pantucci / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

China’s response to the revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa was two-faced like the Roman god Janus. In a pragmatic break with its sovereigntist approach to international relations, China inter-vened to protect thousands of its citizens and its growing commercial interests in North Africa and sup-ported UN sanctions against Muammar Gaddafi. However, since February there has also been a wi-despread crackdown to prevent the wave of protests that had engulfed the Middle East and North Africa spreading to China. The arrest of artist Ai Weiwei at the beginning of April brought this crack-down to the attention of the world. This Janus-faced response presents a dilemma for the European Union. On the one hand, it suggests that China could in the future become a partner for the EU in crisis management and that it is moving towards a more proactive foreign policy. On the other hand, China’s response to protests at home represents a clear challenge to the EU’s newfound commitment to de-mocracy promotion. The EU should therefore seek to do more crisis-management planning together with China while remaining vocal and consistent on China’s human rights and internal reform process, even if it incites Chinese anger and results in a reaction in other fields.

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(040) HOW TO STOP THE DEMILITARISATION OF EUROPE

Author(s): Nick Witney / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

Discounting threats of armed attack and disillusioned with liberal interventionism, Europeans are shrin-king their militaries and banking on “soft” power. But this betrays a failure to understand the nature of the new, multiplayer global environment that will determine Europe’s future security and prosperity. The value of Europe’s armed forces is less in countering specific “threats” than as necessary instruments of power and influence in a rapidly changing world, where militaries still matter. Unless it gets over its discomfort with hard power, Europe’s half-hearted efforts to improve the efficiency of its defence spending will continue to fail. This Policy Brief argues that Europeans now need to reassess their strategic environment, reconsider the role that hard power should play in it and relaunch their efforts to combine their defence efforts and resources. The Weimar Triangle – Germany, France and Poland – should jointly press for a heavyweight commission to conduct a European Defence Review, which would examine member states’ defence policies, much as the budget plans of eurozone members are now reviewed in a “European semester”; rewrite the European Security Strategy; and present to Euro-pean leaders a menu of big, bold proposals for decisive further defence integration. The alternative will be not just the end of the common defence policy but the steady erosion of Europe’s ability to defend its interests and values in the twenty-first century.

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(041) EUROPE AND THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS: A NEW VISION FOR DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS

Author(s): Susi Dennison,Anthony Dworkin / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

In the aftermath of this year’s revolutions, the EU has rightly recommitted itself to the support of de-mocracy and human rights in the Middle East and North Africa. However, although protesters across the southern Mediterranean share some of the EU’s values, they do not see Europe as a political model and democracy in the region is likely to produce some results with which Europeans are not comfortab-le. This brief argues that, in response, the EU should focus above all on the development of legitimate and accountable governments in post-revolutionary countries in the Arab world. Rather than backing specific political groups in countries that are in transition, the EU should work to create the building blocks and background conditions for fair and inclusive politics. The EU should also try to support human rights through transparent diplomacy and support for civil society. In countries such as Moroc-co that remain undemocratic, the EU should develop a more political approach that pushes harder for incremental reform in return for credible benefits, while continuing to engage on other EU interests. The use of violence against civilians in countries like Syria should be a red line for limiting cooperation, dra-wing condemnation and sanctions in severe cases. EU proposals on conditionality and a new European Endowment for Democracy will be most effective if they are focused on the support of accountable and legitimate government.

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(In)effective Planning Capacity of CSDP Missions: Comparative Analysis of EULEX Kosovo and EUFOR Althea

Author(s): Ivana Bostjancic Pulko / Language(s): Serbian / Issue: 2/2017

Tis paper evaluates the planning capacity of two Common Security and Defence (CSDP) missions (EULEX Kosovo and EUFOR Althea) in order to assess the efectiveness of CSDP planning process. Both missions sufer due to partial interests within the EU and low positioning of CSDP on political agendas of the member states. Compared to NATO, EU missions’ political control is more much detailed once the mission is deployed. CSDP planning architecture has been considerably reformed since the inception of the frst missions in 2003, however the supervision by the member states is still present in all phases of restructuring and implementation. EULEX planning process includes a well elaborated lessons learnt process, however the implementation of the fndings on the operational level is rather weak whereas EUFOR Althea profted mostly from the access to NATO planning assets. CSDP missions are political missions and their efectiveness seems to be of secondary importance to the EU member states.

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A bottomless pit: the costs of Crimea’s annexation by Russia

Author(s): Ewa Fischer,Jadwiga Rogoza / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

The annexation of Crimea has brought the Russian authorities significant dividends, in particular on the domestic stage: it has resulted in an unprecedented social and political consolidation, and strengthened Vladimir Putin’s position after several years of decline in social support for him. It has provided Russia with strategic benefits, giving it broad access to the Black Sea and the military infrastructure on the peninsula, as well as access to natural gas and crude oil reserves. Russia has also taken over numerous assets (including the tourist infrastructure) previously owned by the Ukrainian state.However, the decision itself concerning Moscow’s annexation of Crimea was taken off the cuff, with no calculation of the costs of integrating it with the Russian legal, political and socio-economic space. Russia took over a region that required subsidies from the Ukrainian budget; moreover, the annexation struck at the most important industry of the Crimean economy – tourism. Crimea’s integration with Russia will be a complex process that entails high costs, financial, organisational and social, including multi-billion dollar investments in the modernisation and development of infrastructure, covering the region’s budget deficit, and paying out social benefits.

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A CLOSER LOOK AT YEMEN - A REVIEW ESSAY BY JAMES P. FARWELL

Author(s): James P. Farwell / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2017

‘I would never a trust a man who didn’t steal’, former Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh famously declared. No wonder people call Yemen a kleptocracy. The exPresident of South Yemen, Ali Salim al-Beidh, was less quotable but claimed bragging rights as an Omar Sharif look-alike. Sharif and al-Beidh shared a passion for gambling, a quality that epitomizes the risks that Yemeni political parties have taken in pushing their agendas. History shows such risks can be costly. Sharif lost a $6 million mansion in a single hand of cards. Al-Beidh lost his country after cutting a deal with Saleh to unite north and south Yemen.

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A HUMAN RIGHTS PERSPECTIVE ON RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLICY

Author(s): Raluca Raducea / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2017

This paper focuses on the use of human rights considerations as an instrument in international relations, attempting to provide an interpretation of Russia’s foreign policy using a two-level analysis. The first level is the international level, pertaining to the extent to which Russia has joined and ratified international conventions on human rights, as well as the conduct of Russia inside the UN Security Council and the attempts of the Russian administration to thus legitimize foreign policy decisions using human rights considerations. The second level is the regional and bilateral level, analysing interactions int he field of human rights between Russia and the states in the region, as well as the implications of these interactions for the regional conflicts, from the theoretical perspective of conflict transformation theory that sees human rights violations as both causes and consequences of conflicts. The analysis in this paper focuses on the developments of the post-Cold War era, advancing the hypothesis that, although Russia has increasingly expanded its formal acceptance of the international body of law on human rights and has been more and more actively involved in promoting human rights internationally, its attitude towards specific human rights issues remains controversial, thus making Russian foreign policy on human rights unpredictable and marked by uncertainty.

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A konfliktuskezelés kultúrájának alakulásáról

Author(s): Mihály Csákó / Language(s): Hungarian / Issue: 3/2008

Mihály Csákó, in an investigation among university students, has defined the ‘conflict management’ as a learning process. Studying conflict situations he has invited thirteen-year olds to suggest solutions (the investigation has been based on French and Swiss re- searches). In his investigation Csako could differentiate two groups of teenagers. The majority group can be characterised by growing independence and with it, growing attitudes of aggression. The minority group of the teenagers, however, are still dependent on the adult community around them. In two time sequences (1998, 2002) the majority group became bigger while the minority group became smaller (in other word, the aggressive group became more dominant).

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A veszélyes iskola

Author(s): Géza Sáska / Language(s): Hungarian / Issue: 3/2008

Géza Sáska (Introduction) says that school aggression can easily be explained by the process of educational expansion. In the expansion/massification process new student groups are accessing the educational organisations with their new (and as yet unacceptable) cultures of ‘school conflict management’. Challenged by these new attitudes in the classroom and the school—teachers with their traditional classroom management feel themselves incapable. Educational policy makers are incapable either. Bounded by political and partisan ideologies they can preach only ‘zero tolerance’ and/or ‘co-education’.

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About Security in Contemporary World

Author(s): Ladislav Hofreiter / Language(s): English / Issue: 21/2015

The task to ensure security in contemporary world is a complicated political, scientific-technological and socio-economic problem. As the security itself is complicated, multifactor and hierarchized phenomen also its investigation has to be of an interdisciplinary character. The character of security environment, the character of security risks and threats and also the character of tools for their elimination are essentially changing. The basis to security of social subject consisted in arrangement of the conditions for their existence, to surviving in the present time and advancement into the future. Assurance of this condition means it provided ability to the social subjects to eliminated threats that are defined. In situations of asymmetrical security, the threats are not always clearly defined. They often consist of their own structure systems, in relationships and status the subjects of internationals relations. Asymmetrical of security, by our opinion, presents a discrepancy, unbalance, non-parity between subjects of the international security environment. The unbalance, discrepancy, non-parity has political, military, economic, law, social and societal dimensions.

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Afghanistan: New Opportunities for Talks with the Taliban

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2016

Since the end of the ISAF mission and new territorial gains by the Afghan Taliban, there has been a visible intensification of diplomatic efforts to convince rebels to enter into peace talks with the government in Kabul. Although the Taliban’s official conditions are still unrealistic, a number of new factors suggest negotiations are possible.

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Agressziódivatok és ami mögöttük áll

Author(s): György Ligeti / Language(s): Hungarian / Issue: 3/2008

György Ligeti presents some of the major findings from the field studies led by the Kurt Lewin Foundation (Budapest, Hungary). First, he presents examples of the conflicting situations among students/students as well as among teachers/students. These examples involve stealing (shoplifting), illegal use of mobile phones, acculturalisation processes and the like. Second, he looks for the hidden cultures of the school organisations that may explain the behaviours of the position holders in these organisations.

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Albanian Minority questions in Macedonia: Selected Issues

Author(s): Zuzanna Sielska / Language(s): English / Issue: 19/2018

In the article I tried to select the most important issues and events related to the Albanian minority question in Macedonia. In the very beginning I explain the origin of the name Macedonia, the location of Macedonia and roughly summarize its way to independence in the 90's. Then I elucidate where the Albanian minority in Macedonia came from and why the conflict in Tetovo broke out. At the and I try to chronologically describe the events from 2001 that had impact on today's political situation in the state with special regard to the political crisis that lasted from 2014 to the implementation of the law guaranteeing Albanian as the second official language in Macedonia.

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Alternative New Collective Security Models. Options for Countries of Eastern Europe

Author(s): Lesya Dor?sh,Yaryna Turchyn / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2016

The article dwells upon suggestions concerning the creation of new security systems which would include states under the threat of probable attack from an aggressor at the new stage of establishing the global international order. The analysis and survey was carried out in order to demonstrate the level of public support concerning Ukraine’s membership in NATO and its probability. It is alleged that, under the condition that the alliance directly borders with Ukraine and in the context of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, appropriate response to this conflict in particular and the situation in the Euro-Atlantic and global security space in general is of significant importance. The article proves the necessity of a common strategic approach to security in the European space, especially vital for Central and Eastern Europe. The article is an attempt to define possible ways of Ukraine’s effective cooperation with NATO and Eastern European countries, taking into consideration differences in the views of NATO members and certain European states on developments related to the latest threats, aggression and behaviour of the Russian Federation. The necessity to take the liberty in launching the creation of a new security system and actively participate in its formation along with other states in the region is proven.

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Amerykański exceptionalism – wizja, mit czy rzeczywistość?

Author(s): Miroslaw Romanski / Language(s): Polish / Issue: 11/2014

The following article has a nature of a scientific essay and concerns the issues of „American exceptionalism” phenomenon still present in public debates. In spite of the fact that it has been permanently present in the US politics for many years and has its own premises resulting from the fist independence declarations and Constitution, it has the ups and downs. The fundamental aim of that essay is to answer the question – to what extent exceptionalism and American uniqueness connected with it is important in politics of that country and world politics. Do the phenomenon of terrorism and the attitude of the USA to human rights go hand in hand with the idea of issues raised in that text? The source basis for writing that article were the most important titles concerning the examined item and general conclusions of the Author after studying them.

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'Creeping' civil war in the North Caucasus

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

Over the last year, the situation in Russia’s North Caucasus has become further destabilised. Attacks and armed clashes happen daily, and destabilisation is spreading to an increasingly large area. The extent of violence in the region is so great that it can already be stated that a de facto civil war is taking place, the warring parties being the Islamic armed underground movement which operates under the banner of the so-called Emirate of the North Caucasus, and the secular governments of the individual republics, who are supported by local and federal branches of the Russian Federation’s Interior Ministry and Federal Security Service.

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