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(005) MEETING MEDVEDEV: THE POLITICS OF THE PUTIN SUCCESSION

Author(s): Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

Dmitry Medvedev’s election on 2 March 2008 offers EU leaders a new chance to overcome their disunity and put their uncertain Russia policy on a better foundation. Whatever his personal inclinations, Medvedev will be unable to behave like a democrat in his first years in office. EU leaders should cautiously welcome the new president’s election, but must wait and see whether Medvedev proves a willing interlocutor who can deliver. They should refrain from the foolish enthusiasm they displayed when the sober and coherent Putin succeeded the ailing Yeltsin in 2000. Instead they should test Medvedev with specific demands over energy policy, Kosovo, and Iran.Medvedev, a lawyer by training, has often been depicted as a “liberal”. Considering the alternatives and his own record, he may well be one of the better options to succeed Vladimir Putin, the outgoing autocratic president. Yet Putin will be looking over Medvedev’s shoulder as prime minister. In the cut-throat world of Russia’s clan politics, Medvedev needs Putin to “protect” him from the “siloviki” -- past and present members of the KGB/FSB. The new president starts in a position of weakness, as he lacks a strong clan of his own. A Putin-Medvedev double act would not be Russia’s first “cohabitation”. A similar deal was done when power passed from Yeltsin to Putin in 2000. Putin eventually broke free and became his own man when the siloviki triumphed over the former Yeltsinites during the Yukos affair in 2003. In time, Medvedev may do the same. Russia’s real power transition is likely to happen sometime after the election, if and when the new president puts his mark on the system. The time to assess Medvedev will be then.

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(007) CAN THE EU WIN THE PEACE IN GEORGIA?

Author(s): Nicu Popescu,Mark Leonard,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The EU has established itself as the main diplomatic broker in the conﬂict between Russia and Georgia. It should use this position to help forge a positive peace from a war which threatens the foundations of the European security order. Russia has used its conﬂict with Georgia to display its military power, reclaim a sphere of inﬂuence and frighten its neighbours. Rather than looking for punitive measures, the EU should respond to Russia’s demonstration of force with much stronger engagement for democracy, prosperity and security in the broader region - keeping tough measures towards Moscow on the table if Russia resists.This war was caused in part by the dysfunctionality of the previous ‘peace-keeping’ process in Georgia. The EU must work hard towards ensuring that any new arrangements are not unilateral and do not merely legitimate Russia’s de facto control. The EU should promote an international peace-keeping mission and offer to deploy a civilian reconstruction mission dealing with development, building conﬁdence and security between both sides, and tackling wider political issues. It should also encourage the United Nations to set up a commission of enquiry to help establish the truth on the causes and conduct of the war.Instead of focusing on short-term sanctions against Russia, the EU should move quickly to raise its proﬁle in the Eastern Neighbourhood and to help stabilise other conﬂict regions - paying attention both to old ‘frozen’ conﬂicts and potential new ﬂashpoints. The EU should also make a special commitment to Ukraine: It should recognise its right to EU membership in the future, agree to a more liberal visa regime, offer a solidarity clause backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and move to integrate Ukraine into the EU’s energy market.

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(032) EGYPT’S HYBRID REVOLUTION: A BOLDER EU APPROACH

Author(s): Anthony Dworkin,Daniel Korski,Nick Witney / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

The success or failure of Egypt’s transition to democracy will have huge consequences for the Middle East and for Europe. If the country overcomes the obstacles to political reform, it would set a powerful example for the region. But although the ruling Military Council appears committed to hand over power, it is governing in an opaque way and has resorted to summary justice to deal with protest and criticism. Some liberals also worry that the quick timetable for elections will favour the remnants of the old regime and the Muslim Brotherhood. The revolution has also exacerbated the precarious state of the country’s economy. Despite Egypt’s importance, however, the EU has struggled to achieve influence in the country. In March Ashton and Barroso proposed a new policy framework, which is a good start but should be strengthened, for example by cancelling Egyptian debt. In the longer term, the EU should take a more political approach and behave more like a regional power. For example, Europeans should say clearly that military leaders who resort to summary justice to deal with protest and criticism are violating fundamental political rights. EU officials must also be ready to engage with all Egypt’s political groups, including former NDP members and the Muslim Brotherhood. Europe needs to move beyond fear about migration to see the potential for longer-term economic benefits for both sides of the Mediterranean.

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(034) CHINA’S JANUS-FACED RESPONSE TO THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS

Author(s): Jonas Parello-Plesner,Raffaelo Pantucci / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

China’s response to the revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa was two-faced like the Roman god Janus. In a pragmatic break with its sovereigntist approach to international relations, China inter-vened to protect thousands of its citizens and its growing commercial interests in North Africa and sup-ported UN sanctions against Muammar Gaddafi. However, since February there has also been a wi-despread crackdown to prevent the wave of protests that had engulfed the Middle East and North Africa spreading to China. The arrest of artist Ai Weiwei at the beginning of April brought this crack-down to the attention of the world. This Janus-faced response presents a dilemma for the European Union. On the one hand, it suggests that China could in the future become a partner for the EU in crisis management and that it is moving towards a more proactive foreign policy. On the other hand, China’s response to protests at home represents a clear challenge to the EU’s newfound commitment to de-mocracy promotion. The EU should therefore seek to do more crisis-management planning together with China while remaining vocal and consistent on China’s human rights and internal reform process, even if it incites Chinese anger and results in a reaction in other fields.

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(040) HOW TO STOP THE DEMILITARISATION OF EUROPE

Author(s): Nick Witney / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

Discounting threats of armed attack and disillusioned with liberal interventionism, Europeans are shrin-king their militaries and banking on “soft” power. But this betrays a failure to understand the nature of the new, multiplayer global environment that will determine Europe’s future security and prosperity. The value of Europe’s armed forces is less in countering specific “threats” than as necessary instruments of power and influence in a rapidly changing world, where militaries still matter. Unless it gets over its discomfort with hard power, Europe’s half-hearted efforts to improve the efficiency of its defence spending will continue to fail. This Policy Brief argues that Europeans now need to reassess their strategic environment, reconsider the role that hard power should play in it and relaunch their efforts to combine their defence efforts and resources. The Weimar Triangle – Germany, France and Poland – should jointly press for a heavyweight commission to conduct a European Defence Review, which would examine member states’ defence policies, much as the budget plans of eurozone members are now reviewed in a “European semester”; rewrite the European Security Strategy; and present to Euro-pean leaders a menu of big, bold proposals for decisive further defence integration. The alternative will be not just the end of the common defence policy but the steady erosion of Europe’s ability to defend its interests and values in the twenty-first century.

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(041) EUROPE AND THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS: A NEW VISION FOR DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS

Author(s): Susi Dennison,Anthony Dworkin / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

In the aftermath of this year’s revolutions, the EU has rightly recommitted itself to the support of de-mocracy and human rights in the Middle East and North Africa. However, although protesters across the southern Mediterranean share some of the EU’s values, they do not see Europe as a political model and democracy in the region is likely to produce some results with which Europeans are not comfortab-le. This brief argues that, in response, the EU should focus above all on the development of legitimate and accountable governments in post-revolutionary countries in the Arab world. Rather than backing specific political groups in countries that are in transition, the EU should work to create the building blocks and background conditions for fair and inclusive politics. The EU should also try to support human rights through transparent diplomacy and support for civil society. In countries such as Moroc-co that remain undemocratic, the EU should develop a more political approach that pushes harder for incremental reform in return for credible benefits, while continuing to engage on other EU interests. The use of violence against civilians in countries like Syria should be a red line for limiting cooperation, dra-wing condemnation and sanctions in severe cases. EU proposals on conditionality and a new European Endowment for Democracy will be most effective if they are focused on the support of accountable and legitimate government.

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A bottomless pit: the costs of Crimea’s annexation by Russia

Author(s): Ewa Fischer,Jadwiga Rogoza / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

The annexation of Crimea has brought the Russian authorities significant dividends, in particular on the domestic stage: it has resulted in an unprecedented social and political consolidation, and strengthened Vladimir Putin’s position after several years of decline in social support for him. It has provided Russia with strategic benefits, giving it broad access to the Black Sea and the military infrastructure on the peninsula, as well as access to natural gas and crude oil reserves. Russia has also taken over numerous assets (including the tourist infrastructure) previously owned by the Ukrainian state.However, the decision itself concerning Moscow’s annexation of Crimea was taken off the cuff, with no calculation of the costs of integrating it with the Russian legal, political and socio-economic space. Russia took over a region that required subsidies from the Ukrainian budget; moreover, the annexation struck at the most important industry of the Crimean economy – tourism. Crimea’s integration with Russia will be a complex process that entails high costs, financial, organisational and social, including multi-billion dollar investments in the modernisation and development of infrastructure, covering the region’s budget deficit, and paying out social benefits.

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A HUMAN RIGHTS PERSPECTIVE ON RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLICY

Author(s): Raluca Raducea / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2017

This paper focuses on the use of human rights considerations as an instrument in international relations, attempting to provide an interpretation of Russia’s foreign policy using a two-level analysis. The first level is the international level, pertaining to the extent to which Russia has joined and ratified international conventions on human rights, as well as the conduct of Russia inside the UN Security Council and the attempts of the Russian administration to thus legitimize foreign policy decisions using human rights considerations. The second level is the regional and bilateral level, analysing interactions int he field of human rights between Russia and the states in the region, as well as the implications of these interactions for the regional conflicts, from the theoretical perspective of conflict transformation theory that sees human rights violations as both causes and consequences of conflicts. The analysis in this paper focuses on the developments of the post-Cold War era, advancing the hypothesis that, although Russia has increasingly expanded its formal acceptance of the international body of law on human rights and has been more and more actively involved in promoting human rights internationally, its attitude towards specific human rights issues remains controversial, thus making Russian foreign policy on human rights unpredictable and marked by uncertainty.

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About Security in Contemporary World

Author(s): Ladislav Hofreiter / Language(s): English / Issue: 21/2015

The task to ensure security in contemporary world is a complicated political, scientific-technological and socio-economic problem. As the security itself is complicated, multifactor and hierarchized phenomen also its investigation has to be of an interdisciplinary character. The character of security environment, the character of security risks and threats and also the character of tools for their elimination are essentially changing. The basis to security of social subject consisted in arrangement of the conditions for their existence, to surviving in the present time and advancement into the future. Assurance of this condition means it provided ability to the social subjects to eliminated threats that are defined. In situations of asymmetrical security, the threats are not always clearly defined. They often consist of their own structure systems, in relationships and status the subjects of internationals relations. Asymmetrical of security, by our opinion, presents a discrepancy, unbalance, non-parity between subjects of the international security environment. The unbalance, discrepancy, non-parity has political, military, economic, law, social and societal dimensions.

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Any changes? The future agenda of Sweden’s security policy

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

Sweden’s annual security and defence conference, which this year focused on the future of the country’s security policy, was held in Sälen on 12-14 January. It was attended by almost all the leaders of Sweden’s ruling and opposition parties. The discussions have revealed whether and how the mindset of the Swedish elite has changed following the heated debates on defence issues in 2013. The opposition parties (Social Democrats, the Green Party, and the Left Party), which are likely to form a coalition government after the election to the Swedish parliament in September 2014, were given the opportunity to present their own priorities. The discussions have brought to the surface conflicting perceptions within the political elite concerning the threats and challenges to Swedish security, and divergent positions on the future direction of the country’s security and defence policy.It is highly likely that, due to a coalition compromise, the current course of Sweden’s security policy (namely, a policy of non-alignment along with close co-operation with NATO) will be maintained following the parliamentary election, albeit with new “leftist" influences (a greater involvement in the United Nations). Big changes that could lead to a significant strengthening of Sweden’s defence capabilities, or a decision on NATO membership, are not likely. Paradoxically, polls suggest that in the long run a more radical change in Stockholm’s security policy may be shaped by a gradual, bottom-up evolution of public opinion on the issue.

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Are they still among us? Discussion with the book Rosyjski sztylet. Działalność wywiadu nielegalnego (The Russian Dagger. Activities of illegal intelligence) by Andrzej Kowalski

Author(s): Dominik Smyrgala / Language(s): English / Issue: 21/2015

The article discusses some of the theses presented in Rosyjski sztylet. Działalność wywiadu nielegalnego by Col. Andrzej Kowalski. The former director of the Polish Military Counterintelligence Service presents the most important aspects of the illegal intelligence of the former USSR. On that foundation, he analyzes media and news about the contemporary intelligence activities of the Russian Federation. He concludes that the use of illegal intelligence is still an important element of the Russian strategy and poses an underappreciated threat to the West. The book is not free of mistakes, namely that some statements cannot be confirmed by the sources. Nevertheless, it is a valuable research perspective; it’s greatest value being the practical knowledge and experience of the author.

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Ateşin Düştüğü Yer: Türkiye’nin Yüreği, Kollektif Vicdanimizi Yaralayan, “Ruhumuzu Üşüten” Katliam

Author(s): Yildiz Akpolat / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 3/2009

This report evaluates socio-economic and socio political patterns of the murder resulting the death of 44 people, happened in Bilge Village, Mardin, a city locating in the South Eastern Part of Turkey. In this context , the researcher carried out surveys and semi-structured interviews in Bilge Village in order to understand the patriarchal and feudal structure of the brutality.

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Atom od Bosforu po Zatokę Perską – perspektywy energetyki jądro-wej na Bliskim Wschodzie

Author(s): Lukasz Tolak / Language(s): Polish / Issue: 20/2014

The article is an attempt to analyze the current situation and plans for the development of the nuclear industry in the Middle East after the failure in Fukushima. Next to the southern and eastern Asian countries nuclear power becomes a choice of countries of the Middle East region. Taking into account the significant gaps in economic and scientific potential, and the unstable political situation in the countries of the region – projects to build nuclear power stations seem to be a particularly complex challenge. The article analyzes the entered and planned investments and risks, which may arise in connection with the implementation of adopted plans.

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Autokratski mir: Izgledi za empirijska istraživanja

Author(s): Nenad Stekic / Language(s): Serbian / Issue: 17/2017

an argument of peaceful behaviour of the countries with democratic political regime within international system was conceptualized with democratic peace theory in the eighties of 20th century. guided by Kant’s ideas on “separate peace” between some types of political regimes, Michael doyle developed theoretical postulates of democratic peace in 1983. dyadic democratic peace variant of the theory, introduces an assumption according to which two states are peace prone within their interrelations. Recently, there have been published several academic articles with the idea of “negative version” of the democratic peace theory or so-called autocratic peace. according to the postulates of this idea, two autocratic states are less war prone in their relations. Thesis on autocratic peace takes democratic peace theory categories such as dyads, spatiotemporal distribution, variables, defining the autocracy and the interpretations of empirical evidence. This article aims at presenting the most notable academic discussions concerning the potential empirical research of conflicts using the thesis on autocratic peace.

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Avrupa Birliği’nin Tunus Devriminden Sonra Açiğa Çikan Etkin Olmayan Ortadoğu Politikasi

Author(s): Bahar Turhan Hurmi / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2011

This paper analyses the successes as well as shortcomings of European Union‟s policies in the Middle East region, and in Tunisia in particular with special reference to the effectiveness of these policies in tackling the problems of this area. The paper also makes recommendations and suggestions for the development and adoption by the EU of foreign policy prescriptions for increased stability, democracy and peaceful evolution of the region. It that Europe needs to behave more like a regional power and less like a big NGO in its dealings with post revolutionary Tunisia, asserting its own vision of how it would like to see the new polity develop and behave.

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Bölgesel Alt Sistemler Karşisinda Demokratik Bariş

Author(s): Gültekin Sümer / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 2/2011

Whereas Europe occupies a significant position regarding the theory of democratic peace, it would be misleading to regard her as the sole regional subsystem on which theory of democratic peace would be based. For the reality of democratic peace in the Western world cannot be understood without the dynamics peculiar to Europe. The existence of independent units competing with each other for power and influence has given the Continent its very characteristic. Thus, foreign policies of the states have not risen over democratic peace, but rather democracies were born into the nation-states in quest for furthering their interests. Unprecedented technological achievements increased the destructive capacity of the subsystem whose consequences favored the emergence of an international society in Europe. The emergence of a pluralistic security community entailing the sense of common “we” - embodied in the example of European Union- amounted to permanent peace in Europe. Thus, it is significant to regard democratic peace as a sub-system phenomenon rather than a dyadic one. Due to this very reason, possible democratizations in non-western subsystems will signify a sounder testing of the theory since democratic peace is open to more vulnerability in such subsystems. Given the limited amount of cases to be handled, the conclusions reached by the advocates of democratic peace are not strong enough to support the democratic peace theory. The strength of democratic peace is to be clarified inasmuch as democratic dyads are subjected to external dynamics tough enough to compel democracies to step back from their democratic identities. Since war proneness is directly related to the very characteristics of each subsystem, total elimination of war might only be possible with the formation of pluralistic security communities. Otherwise, such political geographies may easily succumb to constructive structures that can bring about outbreak of wars.

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'Creeping' civil war in the North Caucasus

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

Over the last year, the situation in Russia’s North Caucasus has become further destabilised. Attacks and armed clashes happen daily, and destabilisation is spreading to an increasingly large area. The extent of violence in the region is so great that it can already be stated that a de facto civil war is taking place, the warring parties being the Islamic armed underground movement which operates under the banner of the so-called Emirate of the North Caucasus, and the secular governments of the individual republics, who are supported by local and federal branches of the Russian Federation’s Interior Ministry and Federal Security Service.

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Crimean Tatars after Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszanski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Crimean Tatars face the necessity of working out a modus vivendi to cope with the difficult situation which now confronts them. On the one hand, the desire to remain in their homeland, which they regained after exile in Soviet times, is an imperative encouraging them to accept the status quo, while on the other, the fear of Russia and the strong relations of Crimean Tatar elites with Kyiv would favour opposing the present state of affairs. Another fact pointing in favour of an agreement with Moscow is that Kyiv has not attempted to defend Crimea and has not been active in demanding its return to Ukraine, which has undermined Kyiv’s authority in the eyes of the Tatars. Therefore, the leaders of the Mejlis of Crimean Tatars (the national self-government) act carefully, trying to avoid actions which could be seen as provocative and thus liable to incite retribution. It could be expected that this course of action will continue, although it faces ever greater difficulties in the context of the Russian authorities’ adoption of a strongly anti-Tatar policy, which is likely to evoke more radical attitudes among the Crimean Tatars.

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Cross Cultural Awareness in International Military Operation: International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan

Author(s): Jowita Brudnicka / Language(s): English / Issue: 21/2015

Multiculturalism defined as a multitude of cultures can be typified as a major trend in international relations, what is a chellenge for every participant of global affairs. The phenomen of multiculturalism is absolutely nothing new, but under conditions of progresive globalisation mechanism its importance has been appreciated.In practise multinational forces have to operate in culturally heterogeneous environment in an array of tasks to combat threats of mostly a non-military transnational nature. All the time there are a highly complex relations within coalition personnel, in cuturally diverse society living in the theatre of operation and between all them mutually.

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Devlet Dışı Aktörler ve Terörizm: Devletin Sorumluluğu Hukukunun ve Özen Gösterme Kuralının Uygulanması

Author(s): Umut Kedikli / Language(s): Turkish / Issue: 1/2010

The review of: “Non-State Actors and Terrorism: Applying the Law of State Responsibility and the Due Diligence Principle” by Robert P. Barnidge Jr.; The Hague, T.M.C. Asser Press, 2008, XVI + 244 pages. ISBN 978-90-6704-259-8

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