We kindly inform you that, as long as the subject affiliation of our 300.000+ articles is in progress, you might get unsufficient or no results on your third level or second level search. In this case, please broaden your search criteria.

Slovakia’s View of the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

In the debate on the future of the European Union, Slovakia favours more integration. The sharpening discussion about a multi-speed Europe could undermine political cooperation within the Visegrad Group. Slovakia uses the V4 to strengthen its position on selected issues but, at the same time, signals shortcomings associated with group membership. The response to the possibility that political cooperation will be undermined requires joint action on the future of the EU based on the V4 March statement.

More...

Trump Administration’s Approach to the North Korean Nuclear and Missile Threats

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The Trump administration intends to robustly respond to the “immediate” missile and nuclear threat from North Korea. Its strategy will be, to a large extent, a continuation of previous policy. A new element, though, is pressure on China to take full advantage of its leverage over Kim Jong Un’s regime. Growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula could have significant implications on the relationship between the U.S. and its European allies.

More...

Mounting Tensions in India-Pakistan Relations: International Consequences

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

A series of attacks reportedly by Pakistani militants in India across 2016 has led to a deepening crisis in Indo-Pakistani relations. The exchange of accusations and continuing threat of new attacks pose the risk of further escalation of the conflict. The rivalry negatively impacts regional cooperation and the stabilisation of Afghanistan. It also has contributed to the proliferation of nuclear weapons and growing menace of terrorism. Peace in the region and normalisation of ties depend on Pakistan taking on a stronger antiterrorism policy. More probable, however, is the continuation of the period of manageable tension.

More...

Turkey: On the Road to a Presidential System

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The Turkish parliament has adopted a constitutional reform package that introduces a presidential system. The amendments not only impair parliament’s role but also weaken the judiciary’s independence. To enter into force, the reform package must be approved by referendum, set for 16 April. The referendum campaign will intensify tensions in Turkey and the changes could lead to a deterioration of Turkey-EU relations.

More...

The Potential Effects of Renegotiation of NAFTA

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

In the U.S. presidential campaign, Donald Trump criticised NAFTA, calling it the “worst trade deal” the U.S. has ever signed. He decried the agreement as contributing to the high U.S. trade deficit with Mexico and loss of jobs to that country. In the first days of his presidency, Trump said his administration would renegotiate NAFTA to make it more beneficial to the U.S. Talks on this issue could take a while. Moreover, if the partners remain inflexible in their demands, withdrawal from NAFTA cannot be excluded. Its renegotiation may also have a negative impact on the world economy, partly by increasing uncertainty and limiting investment in NAFTA member states.

More...

Consequences of the Deterioration of the Situation in Donbas*

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

The recent exacerbation of hostilities in Ukraine’s Donbas is a reaction by Russia-backed irregular forces to actions taken by the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF), who since December 2016 have been gradually restoring control over territory along the Minsk-agreed separation line. Russia accuses Ukraine of breaching the Minsk agreement and blames the Ukrainian authorities for the outbreak of fighting. The argument will be used by Russia to lift sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU. However, the Ukrainian authorities claim that the UAF’s actions have not violated the Minsk agreement since it provides for the territory in question to be under Ukraine’s control.

More...

Possible Course of U.S. Climate Policy under President Trump

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

During his election campaign, Donald Trump announced a break with the policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which in his view adversely affects business in the United States. Among his stated aims were taking the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, cutting off financing for climate protection in developing countries, and repealing federal regulations aimed at reducing emissions and the use of fossil fuels. The limitation of actions related to climate protection in the U.S. seems to be a foregone conclusion, but the global consequences will depend on the specific decisions of the new administration.

More...

№160: Xi Transforms the PLA: How the Military Is Being Adapted to China’s Changing Global Position

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Reform of the Chinese armed forces gained new momentum under Xi Jinping in 2015. The main argument behind the strategy, structure, and equipment modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the active defence of China’s global interests to strengthen its competitiveness with the United States. A short-term goal is to make the PLA operationally capable of projecting China’s power abroad constantly, using joint exercises, peacekeeping missions, and the development of military infrastructure. One recent example was opening of China’s first foreign military base in Djibouti. The PLA should also be capable of defending China’s territory and overseas interests by performing combat operations abroad. This means a possible change to the non-intervention clause that has until now been a crucial element of China’s foreign policy.

More...

Prospects for the UK–U.S. Special Relationship

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The British government will try to deepen the country’s cooperation with the U.S. in the area of security and defence to offset the negative political and economic effects of Brexit. However, Britain will face the risk of a further decline of its military potential and serious differences with the administration of Donald Trump on major foreign policy issues, including NATO and Russia. In effect, the UK might be forced to focus on strengthening European security at the cost of supporting the U.S. in other regions.

More...

The Chinese Perspective on Relations with the U.S. under Donald Trump’s Administration

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

China’s assessment of the result of the U.S. election and prospects for relations with the U.S., have evolved from cautious optimism to concerns about a possible new chapter of the U.S. pivot to Asia policy, in which China might be cast in the role as main adversary. Apart from economic and security matters, Taiwan is becoming an important contentious issue. This is vindicated by statements by Donald Trump and Peter Navarro, chief of the National Trade Council, in which they undermine “One China” principle. Therefore, the rising tensions in bilateral relations, including risks of incidents in the Asia-Pacific region and a trade war, are probable.

More...

The Russian Federation’s New Foreign Policy Concept

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 30 November 2016, President Vladimir Putin signed a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept. In the document, Russia states its aspirations to pursue an active policy in the field of international security (especially in the Middle East). One of its instruments will be seeking opportunities for cooperation with the administration of the new president of the United States. Relations with the EU will be reduced to economic cooperation, while more focus will be placed on developing political and economic relations with Asian countries.

More...

Donald Trump’s Economic Policy: Consequences for Germany

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The economic policy announced by Donald Trump, especially the introduction of restrictions on foreign trade and expansionary fiscal policy, raise many challenges for Germany’s economic interests. In response, Germany will seek to consolidate the European Union and strengthen its position in the global economy. It will not succeed without the rapid conclusion of disputes that weaken cooperation between Member States.

More...

The Future of Russia-Bulgaria Relations after the Bulgarian Presidential Election

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 13 November, Rumen Radev was elected president of Bulgaria. Supported by the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BPS), he received nearly 60% of the votes in the second round. He promises to strengthen cooperation with Russia and remains sceptical of NATO reinforcement in the Black Sea region. Tsetska Tsacheva, the candidate for the ruling party Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), received 36% of the votes. Her loss brought with it the resignation of the Boyko Borisov government. GERB announced it would not participate in a new government coalition. BPS has limited ability to form a new coalition, meaning early parliamentary elections may take place at the beginning of 2017 and could further strengthen the pro-Russian parties.

More...

Ukraine’s Reaction to Donald Trump’s Election as U.S. President

Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president has caused anxiety among Ukraine’s authorities, who expected victory for Hillary Clinton and are concerned about her opponent’s declarations regarding possible rapprochement between Washington, D.C. and Moscow. Still, President Petro Poroshenko and his associates will seek to establish close personal contacts and cooperation with the new U.S. administration. Ukrainian opposition parties, on the other hand, will aim to take advantage of Trump’s success to increase its own popularity and discredit Poroshenko.

More...

Ukraine’s Reaction to Donald Trump’s Election as U.S. President

Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president has caused anxiety among Ukraine’s authorities, who expected victory for Hillary Clinton and are concerned about her opponent’s declarations regarding possible rapprochement between Washington, D.C. and Moscow. Still, President Petro Poroshenko and his associates will seek to establish close personal contacts and cooperation with the new U.S. administration. Ukrainian opposition parties, on the other hand, will aim to take advantage of Trump’s success to increase its own popularity and discredit Poroshenko.

More...

Prospects for China-CEE Relations in the 16+1 Format

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

On 5 November 2016, the fifth summit of China and Central and Eastern Europe was held in Riga. The main topic of the meeting was the buzzword “connectivity,” which indicates building various connections or links, especially infrastructural ones. The main results of the summit were an attempt to define maritime dimension of cooperation, with special focus on the three seas initiative (the Adriatic, Baltic and Black) announced in 2015, and a decision to set up in Poland a secretariat for maritime issues. For China, the 16+1 will remain a tool for strengthening its international status and promoting the Silk Road initiative, while the others will use it to enhance their bilateral relations with China.

More...

Strengthening Putin’s Political Position in Russia

Author(s): Łukasz Jasina / Language(s): English

The result of the presidential election in the United States will strengthen the political position of Russian President Vladimir Putin, both in terms of internal political power and international relations. Putin’s aim is to extend his regime’s hold on power, via re-election in 2018. He will seek to gain from the electoral defeat of foreign politicians who condemned his actions in Ukraine and Syria, and on the domestic front his party in the September parliamentary election will prove an important instrument for strengthening his power.

More...

“Kavkaz 2016:” The Next Test of Russia’s Armed Forces

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The military exercise “Kavkaz 2016” was the most important test this year of the combat readiness of the Russian Armed Forces. The scenarios carried out in recent months by Russia and Collective Security Treaty Organisation members included a clear political message addressed to neighbouring countries (namely Ukraine) and NATO members, evidenced by the location and scale of the manoeuvres. In “Kavkaz 2016,” the Russians demonstrated their ability to defend their hold on Crimea, occupied since 2014.

More...

NATO Adaptation to Russia’s Nuclear Challenge

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

In response to Russia’s nuclear threats, NATO has strengthened its nuclear deterrence. The Warsaw Summit aimed to send a message of resolve and readiness to face nuclear risks. The Alliance’s credibility depends, however, on its continued efforts in strategic communication, planning and exercises, and investment in maintaining effective capabilities.

More...

The Importance of the G20 in Shaping Global Economic Governance

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The G20 summit of the leaders of the biggest economies in the world was held in Hangzhou on 4–5 September. Despite ambitious plans, it did not deliver many tangible results. This could be a sign of the low effectiveness of the G20 in achieving long-term economic goals. Nevertheless, the group has succeeded in fighting international economic crises that have touched all of its members. Given the increase in global issues and the ambitions of emerging economies, G20 summits enable discussion of current economic as well as political topics.

More...