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Åland Islands’ Significance to Security in the Baltic Sea Region

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Regardless of recent reports of the possible re-militarisation of the Åland Islands, Finland will strengthen its ability to defend them, upholding the international agreements defining their special status. The key to the security of the archipelago will be military cooperation between Finland and Sweden. However, to enhance the credibility of deterrence of Russia in the region, including nuclear, more frequent exercises involving NATO countries, especially the U.S. and UK, will be required.

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Potential Consequences if the EU Rejects CETA

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Belgium’s Wallonia region has refused to accept CETA, the EU-Canada free trade agreement negotiated for the last seven years. Although Wallonia retains the option to endorse it in the future, it is unclear when and how that may happen. The rejection of the deal will decrease both the economic and political influence of the EU in the world.

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The International Dimension of the Fight for Aleppo in Syria

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The offensive by Bashar al-Assad’s military, supported by Russian troops, on Aleppo—Syria’s largest city—might be successful. This large-scale operation was facilitated by the improved relations between Russia and Turkey and because the United States has only limited military options at its disposal. If Aleppo falls, Assad will have control over territory inhabited by more than 60% of Syrians. The brutality of the Russian attacks in Aleppo may, however, carry a political price in the form of new EU sanctions. The clearly harsher rhetoric of Germany, France and the U.S. toward Russia also shows that these countries will not compromise on Ukraine in return for Russian concessions in Syria.

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Russia’s Military Exercises and the Prohibition on the Threat of Force

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Staging military exercises which include certain offensive elements or deployment of ballistic missiles in direct proximity of a border of another state do not constitute a violation of the prohibition of the threat of force stipulated in Article 2, Para. 4 of the Charter of the United Nations. However, their legality could be questioned if they were accompanied by a demand of a certain conduct by other entities. It would be difficult to prove that Russian exercises held close to the borders of the members of NATO constitute a violation of said prohibition or any other treaty norms. Still, NATO member states should jointly assess Russian actions as to their compliance with the legal prohibition of threats of force as an instrument of the foreign policy.

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The Consequences of the Failed Military Coup in Turkey

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The failed coup in Turkey will have serious consequences for its domestic and foreign policy. It will lead to further consolidation of power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan, who will use the current situation to eliminate groups he finds to be disloyal among the prosecutor’s office, the army and elsewhere under the pretext of the fight against the Hizmet movement and its leader Fethullah Gülen, whom Erdoǧan blames for the coup attempt. In the foreign policy aspect, possible tensions in Turkey’s relations with the U.S. and the EU, which will criticise the Turkish authorities’ methods in their fight with their political opponents, may be expected. The weakening of the Euro-Atlantic ties may see Turkey move closer to other partners, including Russia.

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Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Stances in the Election Campaign: Unpredictability and Neo-isolationism

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Donald Trump has won Republican primaries and is likely to be named the party’s official candidate for president of the United States at its convention in July. Polls indicate that he will have formidable chances to beat the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton. In his statements Trump suggests that he would like to limit the role of the U.S. in Europe as well as American commitment to maintaining peace in the world. Attempts to find an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin could also be expected, as well as increased tensions in relations with China and the end of the United States’ pro-​​free trade agenda.

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In the Shadow of Brexit: The City of London’s Concerns about Its Position in Global Finance

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Despite the City of London’s support for the UK remaining in the EU, financiers there are arguing about the impact of Brexit on the global role of the British financial centre. Regardless of whether the United Kingdom exits the EU or not, any further increase in the City’s importance will depend primarily on its competitiveness against emerging markets and the economic situation in the UK.

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The DCFTA’s Impact on the Modernisation of Ukraine’s Economy

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

To make full use of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU, it will not be enough for Ukraine to implement EU norms and technical standards. The Ukrainian government should create transparent and stable regulations and simplify the business environment. In this respect, legislative approximation in sectors covered by the DCFTA will be necessary. At the same time, it will be essential that the EU financial support provided to Ukraine is spent effectively to minimise, at least partially, the high cost of modernisation.

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Banning the Majlis: Another Manifestation of Russian Repression of the Crimean Tatars

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

On 26 April, the Supreme Court of Crimea banned the Majlis, the representation of Crimean Tatars, recognising it as an extremist organisation. Thus, Russia has eliminated opposition activity by the Crimean Tatars, replacing the Majlis with Russian-created structures that present the façade of representing the Tatar community. The growing Russian repression means that an entire ethnic group, which was persecuted in the days of the Soviet Union, is threatened. This implies the need for support from the international community by, among other things, monitoring the actions of the Russian authorities and condemning repression.

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The Escalation of the Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh: Causes and Probable Course

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The escalation of fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh was caused by Azerbaijan. The authorities there want to use the conflict to distract its population from impending economic collapse and worsening living conditions as a result of the falling price of oil. The resumption of fighting has resulted in an increase in nationalist sentiments on both sides. Russia may indeed be effective in reducing the tension on both sides of the conflict, but for internal reasons it also may be interested in further escalation.

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The Swedish Counter-Intelligence Report on Hostile Russian Activities in the Region in a Comparative Context

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The Swedish counter-intelligence service’s latest annual assessments highlight the growing interest of Russian intelligence in Sweden’s national security issues. Soon after the publication of the unclassified version of the report, a series of cyberattacks on Swedish media took place. The increase in hostile Russian intelligence activities has been seen as connected to a public debate about the prospects for closer relations between Sweden and NATO. The U.S. perception of the Russian threats presented by Sweden’s counter-intelligence services does not deviate from public assessments by other Scandinavian countries’ assessments. This might suggest that the increased Russian activities are part of some broader strategy concerning Northern Europe.

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The Crisis in Libya and the Rise of Jihadism and Migration

Author(s): Alicja Minda,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Five years after the downfall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, Libya is the second most-destabilised Arab state after Syria, with multiple local centres of power, some 2,000 militias in intertwined conflict, a growing people-smuggling market and expanding terrorist organisations, namely Al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State. Located just 450 km from Europe’s shores, Libya may this year become the new centre of operations for jihadist movements, elevating the terrorist threat to Europe, as well as a major migration route should the process of forming a national unity government under the auspices of the UN fail and the Eastern Mediterranean route via Turkey and Greece be shut down.

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The Importance to Poland of Latin American Regional Cooperation Initiatives

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Regional cooperation initiatives are one of Latin American countries’ main policy tools. They have served to foster the development of member states, build common trust, and strengthen their international position. For Poland, the significance of some of the groupings mainly results from their status as EU partners. The main blocs are Mercosur and the Pacific Alliance—both include Poland’s main trading partners in the region—as well as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which represents the whole region in strategic partnership with the EU.

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FIFA World Cup in Russia: Internal and International Aspects

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

With the International Olympic Committee excluding the Russian national team from the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, the importance for Russia’s authorities of the FIFA World Cup is increasing. World Cup competition will be held from 14 June to 15 July 2018. The tournament will be used in Russia’s internal politics, especially in the presidential campaign, and in relations with other countries to strengthen bilateral contacts and portray Russia as a country with a strong international position.

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Export Promotion Agency: The Experience of Selected European Countries

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

To enhance the presence of Polish companies in international markets, a coherent and efficient system of government support is needed. Much of it can be through the Export Promotion Agency, which the Polish government plans to create. In this context, it is worth surveying the experience of other countries, including the UK, Hungary and Czech Republic, where this kind of institution already exists and adjust the solutions to be effective with Polish realities.

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The South Caucasus in the Shadow of the Russian-Turkish Crisis

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The conflict between Turkey and Russia due to their contradictory interests in the Middle East deepens the division of the South Caucasus into two blocks. As a result, Turkey strengthens its political and economic cooperation with Georgia and Azerbaijan while Russia increases military cooperation with Armenia. This situation, although it poses security challenges, could paradoxically be beneficial for the Georgian and Azerbaijani economies, including through the development of trade with Turkey. The EU and Turkey should coordinate their policies towards the Caucasus, including issues such as frozen conflicts, regional economic integration and the development of energy projects.

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Poland’s Campaign for a Non-Permanent Seat on the UN Security Council

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Poland is bidding against Bulgaria for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council in the 2018 to 2019 term. This position would allow Poland to influence the discussion on global security and potential risks as well as being an opportunity to promote Poland on the global scene. To win the non-permanent seat, Poland should intensify the campaign, build a cohesive image for international partners and prepare for more than one round of voting.

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Russia’s Ambitions in Europe’s Nuclear Energy Sector: A Test of Credibility

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

For Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear company, exemplary cooperation with EU countries is crucial. Because the EU’s nuclear sector is well-structured, the use of Rosatom to influence the bloc geopolitically is limited, and thus its presence on the prestigious EU market primarily serves to construct a positive image of the company. EU Member States should ensure that the nuclear relationship with Russia is also characterised by reciprocity.

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Growing Risk of a “Fixit:” The Finnish Eurozone Dilemma

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Greece is no longer the only country at risk of leaving the eurozone. A referendum on abandoning the common currency is likely to appear in the coming years in Finland, whose economy is mired in crisis. The euro is not the reason for the recession, however, the currency union’s framework lacks monetary policy tools. Even so, there is no guarantee that re-adopting its own currency would help Finland.

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Afghanistan: New Opportunities for Talks with the Taliban

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Since the end of the ISAF mission and new territorial gains by the Afghan Taliban, there has been a visible intensification of diplomatic efforts to convince rebels to enter into peace talks with the government in Kabul. Although the Taliban’s official conditions are still unrealistic, a number of new factors suggest negotiations are possible.

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