We kindly inform you that, as long as the subject affiliation of our 300.000+ articles is in progress, you might get unsufficient or no results on your third level or second level search. In this case, please broaden your search criteria.

Russian Hybrid Threats to the Baltic States

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

How Russia has defined its strategic interests threatens Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. It excels in the use of a range of instruments to put pressure on the Baltic States and interfere in their internal affairs. Russia is also ready to take risky action, thus complicating NATO defence planning, which must be based on a wide spectrum of threats on the Eastern Flank. However, three general scenarios can be distinguished that should point the way for the Allies, especially in strengthening the non-military elements of their security system.

More...

Russia-Saudi Arabia Cooperation: Potential and Limitations

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Arabia and Russia promote contrary approaches to resolving the conflict in Syria as well as differ in their perceptions of Iran’s role in the Middle East. This splits in interest limit cooperation in the armaments sector. The new sphere of Russian-Saudi cooperation is energy, especially in the oil market. Russia seeks to use Saudi Arabia as an instrument to undermine U.S. influence in the Middle East.

More...

China’s Plans to Strengthen Relations with Germany

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China endeavours to strengthen its relations with Germany by taking advantage of the strain in transatlantic relations. In China’s view, Germany would be the PRC’s main partner in the promotion of free trade, climate protection, and a multipolar world order. To foster the relationship, China is willing to minimize disputes with Germany and improve ties, such as by speeding up certification of German political foundations. Strengthening of China–Germany relations requires increased access to the Chinese market for German companies, which is only possible in a longer perspective. Poland may see some benefit from increased exports to Germany and indirectly to China.

More...

Trump’s Asia-Pacific Visit: An Ineffective Attempt to Regain U.S. Initiative in the Region

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

U.S. policy towards the Asia-Pacific region can be characterised by its many, sometimes contradictory, actions. The U.S. pulled out of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), signalling decreasing economic engagement in Asia, and presents a variable stance on China. However, the increased U.S. military presence in the region suggests a possible attack on North Korea. The unpredictability of current U.S. policy worries its Asian partners. During President Donald Trump’s visit to Asia-Pacific countries, he failed to convince them that the U.S. is ready for greater engagement in the region and as a counterbalance to China. For the American president, the key point of his trip was talks with China, which appears not to have compromised on trade issues or North Korea.

More...

British Party System and the Brexit Negotiations

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

During their annual conventions in September and October, British parties presented updated visions of the country’s EU exit. The Conservatives and Labour eventually took clear “hard” and “soft” Brexit positions, respectively. These decisions result from the division in British society and are intended to reinforce the dominance of both parties against the others. This party competition, however, hardens the position of the British government in negotiations with the EU. It also increases the likelihood of Prime Minister Theresa May being replaced by a Conservative Eurosceptic in case of a crisis in the UK-EU talks.

More...

The Schengen Area and the Eurozone in Bulgaria’s European Policy

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The European Commission on 15 November presented a report on the progress made by Bulgaria under the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM). If successfully concluded, the instrument is perceived in the EU as an unofficial condition for a country to join the Schengen Area. The risk of advanced institutionalisation in a multi-speed EU has prompted Bulgaria to intensify its efforts to join the eurozone’s exchange rate mechanism (ERM II), a phase preceding full euro membership. Although Bulgarian authorities put priority on both goals, the perspective of achieving them is uncertain.

More...

U.S. Strategy on Afghanistan and South Asia: Pakistan’s Key Role

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan and South Asia is based in large part on the continuation of policy towards the region. The most important differences under President Donald Trump are the lack of a military operation end date and criticism of cooperation with Pakistan. The key to success of the strategy is to cut off the Taliban from support on the Pakistan side of the border. Therefore, in addition to stronger international pressure on Pakistan, it is necessary to cooperate on some of that country’s strategic interests, including regulation of the border with Afghanistan.

More...

Prospects of North Korean Naval Nuclear Deterrent Forces

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

North Korea’s ballistic missile and thermonuclear tests of 2017 are not the only ones on a list of potential threats. It is also mastering technologies necessary for nuclear deterrent forces based in part on submarines. This new qualitative threat requires closer cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan in missile defence and anti-submarine warfare.

More...

The 16+1 Initiative and Challenges for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

It has been five years since the establishment of cooperation in the 16+1 format between China and Central and Eastern European countries. The initiative still serves as a tool to support Chinese interests in bilateral relations with separate CEE countries, rather than as a forum to accomplish common goals and projects. This was confirmed by the sixth 16+1 summit, held in Budapest on 27 November, which was dominated (like previous meetings) by competition between the “16” for Chinese investments and funds. There is little to suggest that this situation will change before the next summit, to be held in Bulgaria in 2018. For Poland, the 16+1 initiative could become a useful instrument for cooperation. However, this will only happen if China offers real reciprocity in terms of economic relations.

More...

Israel’s Pivot to Asia

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The importance of Israel’s cooperation with Asian states has increased systematically. The pivot from the West to Asia is focused on growing the economy but in the longer term might also bring political benefits to Israel. It attributes great importance to its relations with China, which could lead to disputes with the U.S., especially in the sensitive sphere of technological cooperation. The changes in Israel’s policy in this area may prove beneficial to the European Union.

More...

Russia’s Greater Involvement in Afghanistan: International Aspects

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Russia’s establishment of contact with the Taliban and organisation of three international peace conferences on Afghanistan points at its growing re-engagement in the country. Russian authorities have revised their Afghan policy in light of the deteriorating security situation there, the failed peace negotiations, and lack of a clear American strategy towards the region. Afghanistan has emerged like Syria and Libya as another arena in the Russia-West rivalry, which may further undermine the war-torn country’s stability. NATO should reverse the negative trends in Afghanistan by increasing support to the Afghan security forces and reviving limited cooperation with Russia, for instance, on regional peace initiatives.

More...

Power Grid Upgrade: Baltic States Seek Security, Reduced Dependence on Russia

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, with the support of the European Commission, want to synchronise their power grids with European systems to reduce their dependence on Russia. A compromise reached on a connection via Poland does not specify the technical details and the Baltic States still have differences about what they want. Further support for integration of the electricity sector is in the interest of Poland but should be conditioned on the compliance of all three countries and funding from the European Union.

More...

Russian Policy towards the Largest States of North Africa

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Russia perceives North Africa as an area of rivalry with the United States and European Union countries. It is enhancing its political, economic and military presence in the largest countries in the southern Mediterranean and its position as an important player in the local oil and gas sectors and as a security partner could pose challenges to NATO and the EU.

More...

Prospects for the Stabilisation of Libya

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

At the beginning of May, an agreement was reached by the leaders of two rival powers in Libya—the prime minister of the Government of National Accord (GNA), Fayaz al-Sarraj, and the commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Gen. Khalifa Haftar. The Libya Quartet (EU, UN, LAS, AU) could help moderate the growing influence of third countries, including Russia, on the parties to the conflict. Russia is beginning to replicate its actions in Syria, aiming to increase its involvement so that any agreement without it won’t be possible.

More...

Israeli-Russian Relations in the Context of the Syrian Civil War

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israeli-Russian relations after Russia’s entry into the Syrian civil war have gained a new dimension. Any military action undertaken by Israel against its regional opponents—Hezbollah and Iran—have to reckon with the Russian military presence in Syria. Maintaining good bilateral relations remains one of the main objectives of the foreign policy of both states, although the strategic interests of Russia and Israel in the region remain contradictory. Enhanced cooperation with Russia may adversely affect relations with other Israeli partners, but the nature and intensity of this cooperation may be influenced by the policies of the new U.S. administration and developments in Syria.

More...

Baltic States Adjust Their Security Policy

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Faced with uncertainty about U.S. policy in NATO and U.S.-Russia relations, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have attempted to adapt their security policy to these circumstances. Mainly, this has involved a gradual increase in defence spending and an intensification of activity among the Baltic States after Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The Russian threat to these states remains the dominant determinant of the security policy of the Baltic States, which because of their limited potential in military terms will instead seek to specialise in areas highly relevant to NATO’s ability to deter aggression and respond to new challenges.

More...

Germany’s Migration Policy Correction: Distancing from Extreme Proposals

Author(s): Miłosława Fijałkowska / Language(s): English

The mass-migration crisis that enveloped Germany in 2015 has had consequences for ruling party CDU, mainly costing it support. It also increased the popularity of extreme right-wing party Alternative for Germany, which demands a drastic tightening of the country’s immigration policy. Instead of the extreme measures, Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided on a revised approach that combines tightening immigration laws, greater protection and monitoring of borders, and increasing deportations of people refused legal protection in Germany. Merkel’s policy has brought positive results, but the price for it is seen in cracks in the ruling coalition and even within her own party.

More...

The Prospects of Freezing the Conflict in Donbas

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The almost three-year-long war in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) could become another frozen conflict in the post-Soviet area. The reasons for this are the lack of agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the future of the region and Moscow’s support for the Donbas administration by, for example, giving military support and recognising the civil documents the region issues. Russia has experience leveraging conflicts of this type and using them to further its foreign policy aims. At the same time, Russia has become hostage to the conflict in Donbas, which for Poland leads to further destabilisation of the EU’s eastern neighbourhood.

More...

Russia’s Attempts to Influence the Presidential Election in France

Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): English

Russia has built in France a network of political, economic and media influencers, which have an impact on a significant part of the French elite and general public. Moscow has been using this network in the French presidential election campaign, to support those politicians who sympathise with Russian politics. Yet the rising popularity of socio-liberal candidate Emmanuel Macron, who is least favourable for Russia, could prove a real test for the effectiveness of these influencers.

More...

Potential Legal and Political Effects if the U.S. Relocates Its Embassy to Jerusalem

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

U.S. President Donald Trump has stated he would like to see the American embassy in Israel moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Such a move would be discordant with international law and more than four decades of policy of his predecessors. It would bring negative political consequences for the U.S., Israel, the Middle East and the European Union, even if it were well received by some Israelis and American members of Congress.

More...