A NEW METHOD FOR COVARIATE SELECTION IN COX MODEL

Author(s): Nader Ebrahimi,Ujjwal Das / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2018

In a wide spectrum of natural and social sciences, very often one encounters a large number of predictors for time to event data. An important task is to select right ones, and thereafter carry out the analysis. The l1 penalized regression, known as “least absolute shrinkage and selection operator" (LASSO) became a popular approach for predictor selection in last two decades. The LASSO regression involves a penalizing parameter (commonly denoted by l) which controls the extent of penalty and hence plays a crucial role in identifying the right covariates. In this paper we propose an information theory-based method to determine the value of l in association with the Cox proportional hazards model. Furthermore, an efficient algorithm is discussed in the same context. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method through an extensive simulation study. We compare the performance of our proposal with existing methods. Finally, the proposed method and the algorithm are illustrated using a real data set.

A PARADOX OF REFORMING PENSIONS IN POLAND

Author(s): Anna Ząbkowicz / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2016

Recent years see intense reforming of funded pensions sub-system in Poland. Actually, what are the policy objectives at which change in design introduced in 2013 (mandatory funding) and projected in 2014 (voluntary funding) is oriented? The article briefly reports what contemporary re-designing of the pension system at different stages was about, and reconstructs the objectives of reforming at each stage. It finds that interlocking streams of change aimed at two goals in fact which are i) relief to public finance ii) expanding pension funding by financial intermediaries. It argues that the two are in contradiction to each other, and this makes a paradox of pension reforming. The review of 2013- and 2014- design, unexpectedly enough, results in conclusion that at present reforming is focused on pension funding revitalization, which may cause a recurring distress to public finance. Thus, the article identifies one of dilemmas of institutional-order development in Poland, which can be probably also experienced in other countries where pension funding has been introduced.

A Performance Ranking of LGUs in Macedonia

Author(s): Mirjana Kraja-Sejdini / Language(s): English Issue: 15/2016

Local government performance within public sector performance is coming back because local government is faced with the problem of increased responsibilities under tighter budgets. Therefore, the issues of managing taxpayers’ money more efficiently and effectively still remain a challenge for local government decision makers. In addition, increased social inclusion has created a need for increased accountability and transparency towards local government managers. This paper aims to facilitate decision makers as well as local government officials to offer a ranking system of local government units (LGUs/municipalities) in Macedonia by analyzing and normalizing some of the main financial indicators that make up the final annual accounts of all LGUs in Macedonia. The output of this work is a local government index showing the best and worst performing municipalities in the country. The provision of one aspect of LG government performance allows all local government stakeholders to have an overview of the budget spent as well as identify some best practices by comparatively identifying the practices of the best performing LGUs. However, the data availability has narrowed the scope of this performance ranking. We hope that this study will contribute modestly to the existing literature of the performance in the public sector and specifically in that of the local government sector. There is an increasing interest in studies related to public sector performance. However, this interest has been very little in Balkan Countries.

A Post-Pandemic Budget: The New Multiannual Financial Framework 2021–2027

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The European Commission (EC) wants to issue bonds to finance the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic without reducing the budgets of existing common policies. The axis of the larger EU budget will be the implementation of two key projects launched before the pandemic: the green and digital transitions. The Commission proposal has elements that are attractive for both sides of the debate about the EU budget and it is, therefore, likely that the final outcome of the negotiations will not be much different.

A Public-private Partnership or an Operating Leaseback: Alternative Sources of Financing Public Purpose Real Estate in Poland

Author(s): Iwona Foryś,Karolina Jarosz / Language(s): English Issue: 110/2019

Purpose: Public investment in the real estate sector is characterised by high capital intensity and a long-term character with low profitability. Local government units and central authorities are obliged to obtain funds for the construction and, in the next stage, for the operation of real estate. The external financing of public purpose real estate, which does not require the use of own resources, or at least not in full, becomes an attractive form of the implementation of the tasks of local governments. The aim of the study is to compare two forms of financing local government real estate: a public-private partnership and leasing, to assess these mechanisms and to indicate the barriers to their use in Poland. Methods: The article presents a comparative analysis of two ways of financing pub projects. Simple statistical tools were used to illustrate the problem and Wards method allows for the grouping of facilities. The analyses were preceded by literature studies. Findings: The main determinant of the low popularity of PPPs and operating leaseback in relation to real estate in Poland is an unfavourable economic and legal environment of the real estate market and the characteristics of the object of investment in the physical, economic and legal aspect. There is no reliable data on the use of operational reverse leasing by local governments. It was not possible to perform a statistical analysis but only a theoretical one. Research implications: The survey should encourage local governments to consider the possibility of financing real estate investments with the use of operational leaseback and the PPP formula in future projects.

A Real-Business-Cycle Model with Reciprocity in Labor Relations and Fiscal Policy: The Case of Bulgaria

Author(s): Aleksandar Vasilev / Language(s): English Issue: 03/2017

In this paper we introduce reciprocity in labor relations and government sector to investigate how well the real wage rigidity that results out of that arrangement explains business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria. The reciprocity mechanism described in this paper follows Danthine and Kurmann (2010) and is generally consistent with micro-studies, e.g. Lozev et all. (2011) and Paskaleva (2016), while at the same time comes into contrast with models with efficiency wages of no-shirking type that emphasize the importance of aggregate labor market conditions as the main determinant in wage setting, e.g. Vasilev (2017). Rent-sharing considerations, and worker's own past wages turn out to be the most important aspects of how labor contracting happens. In contrast, aggregate economic conditions, as captured by the employment rate, are not found to be quantitatively important for wage dynamics. Overall, the model with reciprocity and fiscal policy performs well vis-a-vis data, especially along the labor market dimension, and in addition dominates the market-clearing labor market framework featured in the standard RBC model, e.g Vasilev (2009).

A Research Study of Nonlinearity Experiencing in the Rate of Current Account Deficit to the Bulgarian Tourism National Product

Author(s): Stoyanka Petkova-Georgieva,Zlatina Karadzhova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The nonlinearity in any rate of current account deficit is an important task of research because of the so-called Regime Switching Models: TAR, SETAR, Markov Switching Model, etc. Usually, the behavior of time series exhibit breaks is associated with structural changes in government policy or financial crises. In the present research it is used as an example the calculated data about the rate of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Tourism National Product. The series are hard to be modelling because of the structural change of the government policy about the Bulgarian Tourism National Product. The basic hypothesis that is tested in the conducted research is that when there is a case of changes in the time series in their structure it is impossible the principles of linearity assumption to be applied. In the traditional econometrics as a science the linearity is an important assumption but there are practical evidences in which most of the time series do not provide this assumption. These cases of such time series behavior are called nonlinearity series. It is important to test the linearity assumption because of the differing between the ways of modelling the series in the case of linearity and nonlinearity using the date of the rate of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Tourism National Product. If any series do not provide the linearity assumption and also have change in the structure then the case can be modelling with TAR, SETAR or Markov Switching Model. We provided the research by questioning whether there is nonlinearity in the rate of proportion of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Tourism National Product and it is experienced with four nonlinearity tests: Kaplan Test, McLeodLi test, BDS Test and Tzay Test.

A Resolution in the Spanish Banking Sector: The Case of Banco Popular Español

Author(s): Magdalena Kozińska / Language(s): English Issue: 6/2018

The restructuring of Banco Popular Español (BPE) through its takeover by Banco Santander provided a valuable example of the first resolution framework application, which allowed for the assessment of its effectiveness. However, similar crisis tools were also utilised in the Spanish banking sector in 2008–2013. Their analysis may provide a valuable contribution to the issue of selecting the most appropriate resolution tools for banks, which can be utilised by Spain and other EU countries when further restructuring their respective banking sectors or managing crises. The aim of this article is to evaluate the effectiveness of the BPE resolution. Additionally, other examples of the application of the “sale of business” tool from the Spanish banking crisis of 2008–2013 were assessed. The conclusions were then used to assess the possible application of similar tools at other banks in Spain and other European countries.

A simple model of developing countries: financing the current account deficit

Author(s): Özgür Bayram Soylu / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2020

A stock flow consistent model provides a monetary and financial framework to macroeconomics. It clearly shows the sources of financing for investments and also answers the following questions: Where does the finance for investment come from? and How are budget and current account deficits financed? This paper presents a simple stock flow consistent model for the developing countries with current account deficits. Most of these countries seem to cover the current account deficit by public borrowing and private sector borrowing. For this purpose, the motivation of this paper is based on the state of these countries and the modelling of their position.

A sustainable future for corporate governance theory and practice

Author(s): Shann Turnbull / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2017

With this paper we show how the natural “science of control and communications in the animal and the machine” identified by Wiener in 1948 can be applied to social organizations to establish a science of governance. Evidence is provided that current practices are not consistent with the laws of nature or the practices of living things that must become self-regulating and self-governing to exist in dynamic unknowable complex environments. Case studies of stakeholder mutual firms with hundreds of boards show how an ecological form of polycentric decision-making provides: (a) division of powers; (b) checks and balances; (c) distributed intelligence to reduce information overload, and (d) decomposition of decision-making labour to introduce tensions of challenge; (e) a requisite variety of cross checking communication and control channels from stakeholder engagement to improve their integrity; (f) integration of management and governance to further self- regulation and self-governance with: (g) operating advantages such as resiliency, sustainability and wellbeing for firm, its stakeholders and society. The case studies illustrate how ecological governance could reduce the size, scope, cost and intrusiveness of government and their regulators while improving economic efficiency and enriching democracy with widespread citizen stakeholder engagement.

A tale of two cities:

Achieving smarter economy through communication and virtual work

Author(s): Joshua Olusegun Fayomi,Zainab Abdulqadir SANI / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2020

Seamless communication within and between cities allows for a tremendous increase in efficiencies, one of which is the way work can be done. When work no longer needs to be carried out only within the confines of the traditional office, it can then be done virtually and this research seeks to explore how communication influences the creation of smart economy through virtual work. Virtual work is increasingly becoming ideal for organizations as there is a rise in the quality and quantity of data that can be accessed and analysed from outside the traditional office. Smart city research has shown that has also shown that for cities to be have smart economies there needs to be seamless connection between points of information within such cities.This research begins with a detailed desk research to identify and outline the key indices for smart mobility and smart cities, leading to the proposal of a conceptual framework for evaluating two selected case studies through surveys within these cases. This research therefore builds on prior smart cities and virtual work research to establish a framework for evaluating and explaining the relationship between smart communication and smart economy and established the link between connectivity/communication to mobility, and further shows how the increase in connectivity increase virtual work which in turn leads to a smarter economy. The implications for the results from this research extends the ongoing work been done to increase efficiencies in the connection of infrastructure, human capital and information within cities which is useful to both academics and policy makers alike. The clear relationships established between virtual work and smart mobility and its mediating effect on the development of smart economy is very valuable for academic and practice.

A Taxonomic Analysis of the Structure of Prime Costs in Polish Clinical Hospitals

Author(s): Joanna Sikora-Alicka / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2021

Research background: The analysis of the genesis and the way of defining clinical hospitals allows us to conclude that the evaluation of their activities should consider many criteria, not only the treatment process in itself. Activities characteristic for a clinical hospital include, apart from the medical, also prophylaxis and preventative measures, preceded by the identification of health risks, soliciting research and creating new directions of medical research, as well as implementing new medical technologies and treatment methods (Article 3, paragraph 2, points 1–2, Journal of Laws of 2020, items 295, 567, 1493, 2112, i.e.) combined with the training of medical personnel. Which all makes those units unique among hospitals. Purpose: The article aims to confirm the thesis that, despite significant organizational and functional differences, due to the specific nature of their activities, clinical hospitals do not differ significantly in the structure of generated costs. Research methodology: The article proposes using the taxonomic method as a tool for a comparative analysis of Polish clinical hospitals between the years 2012–2016. The study was conducted from a space-time perspective and concerned 20 hospitals. The use of the hierarchical agglomeration method to assess the cost structure of clinical hospitals is, according to the author, a tool that should be used, in addition to standard methods, by both external and internal decision-makers, in the process of assessing the coherence of the activities of units. Results: The conducted research confirmed that despite the differences between the analyzed units, they are characterized by the same structure of prime costs. Novelty: These studies should form the basis for further, a more detailed, cause-and-effect analysis of the cost structure to identify the main determinants shaping total operating costs.

A THREE-PARAMETER WEIGHTED LINDLEY DISTRIBUTION AND ITS APPLICATIONS TO MODEL SURVIVAL TIME

Author(s): Rama Shanker,Kamlesh Kumar Shukla,A. Mishra / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2017

In this paper a three-parameter weighted Lindley distribution, including Lindley distribution introduced by Lindley (1958), a two-parameter gamma distribution, a two-parameter weighted Lindley distribution introduced by Ghitany et al. (2011) and exponential distribution as special cases, has been suggested for modelling lifetime data from engineering and biomedical sciences. The structural properties of the distribution including moments, coefficient of variation, skewness, kurtosis and index of dispersion have been derived and discussed. The reliability properties, including hazard rate function and mean residual life function, have been discussed. The estimation of its parameters has been discussed using the maximum likelihood method and the applications of the distribution have been explained through some survival time data of a group of patients suffering from head and neck cancer, and the fit has been compared with a one-parameter Lindley distribution and a two-parameter weighted Lindley distribution.

A Well-Funded Public Health System for a Healthy National Economy

Author(s): Ibrahim Almaashi / Language(s): English Issue: 05/2014

The article focuses on the healthcare financing analysis in Romania in the European context, trying to capture the revenue and the expenses trends over the last years. All time health system was the most important domain for a national economy. It is known that a domestic economy works if it has a good health system. This is the reason for which I took as an example to be followed Netherlands health system that I would recommend to be used even in Romania in order to get the best results.

Ab’nġn Zayif Ekonomġk Halkasi Yunanġstan’in Ekonomġk Krġzġ Dġnecek Mġ?

Author(s): Serap Durusoy,Ömür Şamġloğlu / Language(s): Turkish Issue: 1/2012

The financial crisis that emerged in the USA in the second half of 2007 quickly achieved global proportions and influenced many countries including Greece. However, when the effects of the global crisis merged with the ongoing unsustainable external debt problems of Greece the effects of both crises were compounded. The inability to diagnose the Greek economy, which is without doubt the weakest link in Europe, and the resultant confusion as to its true status, has played a significant role in this development. In this context, it can be stated that both internal and external factors have a contributing role. In fact, the country‟s 2008 macro-economic indicators reflected the unsustainable status and the revenue earning channels services sector which was the locomotive of the national economy, dried up, resulting in production decreases in agriculture and the industrial sectors. Financial support was provided by the EU and the IMF in response to the crisis that was confronted. Using the financial resources provided an attempt was made to avert the situation and widening of the corporate and financial reform scopes were attempted. In pursuit of these aims; tighter controls, internalization of the grey economy, and provision of various incentives to encourage foreign investment were introduced together with the initiation of dialogues with other countries entrepreneurial corporations and institutions in order to promote the flow of resources into the country from tourism and maritime trade. The Greek crisis has resulted in the increase of discussions of the extent of the effectiveness of EU in the process and the Greek economic administration as well.

Abbas, S. Ali, Alex Pienkowski, Kenneth Rogoff, eds. 2020. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners

Author(s): Boris Begović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 2/2020

ABORDĂRI MODERNE ALE FRAUDEI BANCARE

Author(s): Iurie Căprian / Language(s): English Issue: 51/2022

The notion of bank fraud encompasses a complex of illegal actions, which are aimed at violating legal regulations and which affect the normal functioning of the banking system. The spectrum of these illegal activities are related to property crimes (fraud, extortion), official crimes (abuse of trust, abuse of authority), as well as those committed in the field of financial relations formed in banking, which turns them into a specific danger and requires a special approach in order to choose measures to combat these acts. Bank fraud is a complex notion having partly an external nature, partly an internal nature, with mixed forms possible. The study confirmed the high capacity of banking fraud to adjust to the new conditions of banking. The possibility of bank fraud is expressed by the risk of fraud, as part of the operational risk. This is one of the basic areas of prudential regulation and anti-fraud strategies of commercial banks. At present, standard procedures for combating bank fraud based on a harmonized complex of principles have been implemented in international practice. The foundation of the bank’s anti-fraud management consists of an adequate corporate culture and an efficient internal control system unaffected by corruption. The study carried out on bank fraud was carried out based on the expertise of some international institutions, prudential regulatory acts related to the management of banks’ administration framework, as well as opinions of some experts in the approached field. The paper also contains the conclusions of the analysis performed.

ABOUT SOME CONTROVERSIAL QUESTIONS REGARDING THE NON-FINANCIAL INFORMATION IN THE ANNUAL FINANCIAL STATEMENT (IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY)

Author(s): Gergana Nikolova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The topic of the study is set in the aspect of: the increasing needs of the users of financial and non-financial information in the Annual Financial Statement; legislative changes for disclosure of the non-financial informationin the AFS in force since 1st January 2017; the lack of experience in Bulgaria for disclosure of non-financial information and the search for good practicesin other countries where they exist and are developed.

Absorpcja funduszy Unii Europejskiej a rozwój społeczno-ekonomiczny powiatów województwa wielkopolskiego

Author(s): Marcin Spychała / Language(s): English,Polish Publication Year: 0

Celem artykułu jest próba określenia zależności między absorpcją funduszy unijnych a zmianami poziomu rozwoju społeczno-ekonomicznego. Badania przeprowadzono w trzech etapach. W pierwszym określono poziom rozwoju powiatów województwa wielkopolskiego. W drugim etapie przedstawiono zróżnicowanie absorpcji funduszy unijnych w tych powiatach. W trzecim etapie określono zależności między wielkością absorpcji a zmianami poziomu rozwoju w układzie czynników tego rozwoju na podstawie analizy regresji.

Abstract nature of demand guarantee as source of efficiency and risk of fraud

Author(s): Ana Cvetković / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 2/2017

Autonomy and abstractness of demand guarantee provide simple collection process where the bank cannot issue complaints towards beneficiary which, on the other hand, can be issued by the principal, acting as debtor, towards beneficiary. This specific characteristic of demand guarantee provides advantage of fast and efficient collection, but also brings the risk of fraud. In practice, demand guarantees are often identified as unconditional guarantees or conditional guarantees as documentary guarantees. Therefore, considering it as useful, this work covered some theoretical and practical facts of the demand guarantee, it further explained some terms and guarantee types and it explained Uniform rules for demand guarantees, legal relations and essential elements of demand guarantees as well as abuse during collection process. The aim of this work is to examine the characteristics and acceptability of the demand bank guarantee acting as security means regarding the non-performance of contractual obligations in real-time conditions. Conclusion of this work shows that, for a good reason, the demand guarantee is one of the most used security means regarding fulfillment of contractual obligations, because it provides fast and efficient protection to its beneficiaries, but on the other hand, the fraud possibility should not be overlooked, which must be acceptable ground for payment suspension.