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A COOPERATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH FOR LARGE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

Author(s): Konrad Spang / Language(s): English Issue: VIII/2014

Large Infrastructure projects face many risks due to their complex technical and social conditions. But who is handling a risk is often not the result of an adequate risk distribution, it is more a function of power. And even though systematic risk management should be a basic element of a professional project management, it is not normative in the execution phase and it is unusual in the design phase of these projects. Contractors often take only risks into account, which are obvious or described by the client. They often disregard risks, because it seems to be no “space” in the bid because of the market situation. Clients rarely have a systematic risk management in their projects and are not focused on a fair risk allocation, they try to allocate as much risks as possible at the contractors side. This paper presents an approach for a cooperative and integral risk management for infrastructure projects, the design and the execution phase included. Recent literature and field study results are considered. This holistic approach includes elements as the clients process responsibility, life cycle orientation, a minimizing concept, risk transparency, a risk list, cooperative risk management, risk controlling and risk reviews.

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A COST-BASED DEFENSE DECISION APPROACH IN VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT

Author(s): Cătălin Cioacă / Language(s): English Issue: 15/2020

The paper captures the effect of uncertainties from the security environment on the investment decision in equipment purchase or modernization. Partial irreversibility and limited flexibility specific to military decisions create the context for the introduction of opportunity cost into the analysis. The problem of defense resource allocation is analyzed based on the principles of complex system engineering. The design of allocation strategies is analyzed by integrating dynamic defense capabilities through the paradigm of real option analysis. Based on obtained results, the strategic decision maker can better understand the spectrum of possible solutions and how to act in case of major shocks.

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A factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach to analyse the transmission of monetary policy

Author(s): Zulfiqar Ali Wagan,Zhang Chen,Hakimzadi Wagan / Language(s): English Issue: 6/2019

Using the factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005), this study explores the effect of monetary policy on a wide range of macroeconomic and financial variables for the US, Canada and the UK. The study makes use of financial data from 1990 to 2016, comprising 55–70 variables of the three major nations to show (1) that factors come with additional informational capability, which summarizes the performance of key macroeconomic variables and (2) the manner in which these variables are affected by contractionary monetary policies. Our findings confirm that monetary policy tightening results in decrease in industrial production, employment, share prices, housing starts and inflation; however, it leads to increase in the three-month treasury bill rate, long-term interest rates and unemployment. Overall, the impact of standardized monetary tightening is similar across the countries studied. These results from the major economies and the inclusion of larger data sets containing more variables would be relevant for policy theorists and practitioners from other countries.

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A fair tax (system) or an ethical taxpayer?

Author(s): Tamás Bánfi / Language(s): English Issue: s1/2015

An interpretation of fairness based on the equal sacrifice principle is not clear; three taxation rules can be derived from it. Instead of searching for a fair tax system, ethical behavior of the taxpayer should be expected and set as a target. Ethical taxation can be encouraged and the propensity to pay taxes could be reinforced by abolishing the secrecy of individual and family tax returns, setting restrictions on cash operations which are associated with corruption, and gradually eliminating tax havens and offshore areas.

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A GENERALIZED EXPONENTIAL TYPE ESTIMATOR OF POPULATION MEAN IN THE PRESENCE OF NON-RESPONSE

Author(s): Siraj Muneer,Javid Shabbir,Alamgir Khalil / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2018

In this article, we propose a class of generalized exponential type estimators to estimate the finite population mean by using two auxiliary variables under non-response in simple random sampling. The proposed estimator under non-response in different situations has been studied and gives minimum mean square error as compared to all other considered estimators. Usual exponential ratio type estimator, exponential product type estimator and many more estimators are also identified from the proposed estimator. We use three real data sets to obtain the efficiencies of estimators.

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A GENERALIZED RANDOMIZED RESPONSE MODEL

Author(s): Housila P. Singh,Gorey Swarangi M. / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2017

In this paper we have suggested a generalized version of the Gjestvang and Singh (2006) model and have studied its properties. We have shown that the randomized response models due to Warner (1965), Mangat and Singh (1990), Mangat (1994) and Gjestvang and Singh (2006) are members of the proposed RR model. The conditions are obtained in which the suggested RR model is more efficient than the Warner (1965) model, Mangat and Singh (1990) model and Mangat (1994) model and Gjestvang and Singh (2006) model. A numerical illustration is given in support of the present study.

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A GLIMPSE OF POSITIVE ACCOUNTING THEORY (PAT)

Author(s): Muhammad Rifky Santoso,,Minda Muliana Sebayang / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2017

Positive accounting theory (PAT) has been more developed than normative accounting theory in this era. The development of PAT research has discussed about what factors influenced management to report earnings. By using literature reviews, there are many researches in discussing the external factors to influence management to report earnings, such as bonuses, the debt equity ratio, political costs, and good governance. The other researches have discussed the association between earnings and stock prices. There are still few discussions about the selfmotivation of the directors or managers why choose a certain accounting method. The difference of environment, types of industry, and timing of financial statement reporting can be a further research. By using theories introduced by Popper, Kuhn, and Lakatos, PAT has elements in these three theories; however, PAT has not been categorized as science.

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A HELYI ADÓZTATÁS SAJÁTOSSÁGAI MAGYARORSZÁGON

Author(s): Eva Darabos / Language(s): Hungarian Issue: 1/2016

A possible alternative of involving resources required for carrying out the municipal tasks is to introduce local taxes which allows the municipalities to manage themselves financially alone. Aim of the treatise is to present the development in number of municipalities introducing local taxes, the role of own revenues and local taxes in the budget of municipalities, highlighting the development in amount of the business tax by settlement type. Based on the data, it can be stated that there has been a significant change in the structure of budget of municipalities since 2008,the local taxes play a decisive role, those ones serve as important sources of funding in addition to the decreasing state aid.

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A KEYNESIAN APPROACH TO FISCAL POLICY FOR FULL EMPLOYMENT AND CONTINUOUS TIME DEBT DYNAMICS

Author(s): Yasuhito Tanaka / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2020

It is widely argued that public debt is a burden on the future generations. We analyze another aspect of public debt as an economic stimulus program, that is, the measure to realize full employment from an under-employment state. Using a continuous time version of a dynamic analysis of debt-to-GDP ratio we show that a fiscal policy to realize full employment from a state of under-employment can reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. More precisely we show that the larger the extra growth rate (increasing rate) of real GDP by a fiscal policy is, the smaller the debt-to-GDP ratio at the time when full employment is realized is. Also we show that even if the marginal propensity to consume is very small (including zero), an aggressive fiscal policy can realize full employment without increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio. Further, we consider a condition to realize full employment from a state of under-employment within one year without increasing debt-to-GDP ratio.

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A lender of last resort on trial: Remarks on the controversy surrounding the role of the European Central Bank in the financial crisis

Author(s): Detlev Ehrig / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2016

The recent European debt crisis has generated a growing importance of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB was forced to take measures far beyond its traditional role to stabilize monetary markets and inflation. The ECB has adopted a new function as a lender of last resort, providing banks and governments with almost unlimited liquidity and purchasing government bondswithin Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT). This new role of the ECB has been hotly debated.In Germany, the debate even reached the Constitutional Court. The article will give a survey ofthe fundamentals of a lender of last resort and of the debate referring to the arguments of the ECBand Bundesbank. It is indeed questionable whether the ECB has a mandate for its new monetaryand nolens volens fiscal role. Regardless of whether the arguments are convincing, new steps towardsnew fiscal arrangements and a banking union are needed to stabilize the euro area.

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A Local Government Revenue System under Macroeconomic Pressure – The Case of Poland

Author(s): Beata Guziejewska,Katarzyna Walerysiak-Grzechowska / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2020

This study analyses macroeconomic factors, especially the level of GDP and its changes, in terms of their impact on the revenues of Polish local governments from 1999 to 2016. The importance of the factors in managing local finances is growing because of the increasing threats of globalisation and economies becoming more vulnerable to exogenous shocks. This article attempts to identify the structural weaknesses of the local government revenue system in Poland in the context of macroeconomic circumstances. It follows from our research that the property tax and general state grants are relatively insensitive to GDP changes and that they are capable of ensuring local revenue stability during a crisis. Greater sensitivity to economic fluctuations is shown by shared income taxes. The study analyses Central Statistical Office and Eurostat data using an advanced research approach, the key elements of which are cointegration analysis and a vector error correction model.

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A mai pénzügyi rendszer kritikája és reformlehetőségei

Author(s): Sára Lafferton,Gábor Horváth / Language(s): Hungarian Issue: 27/2020

In this paper we try to briefly analyse the main working principles and the social consequences of the financial system. In the second part of our article we describe several alternative solutions to the current system: in our opinion, some of these could help and enable the work of establishing a democratic and solidarity economy.

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A Method to Calculate Corrective Coefficients for the Valuation of Land Rental Payments

Author(s): Irina Aleksandrovna Astrakhantseva,Ekaterina Vyacheslavovna Balandina / Language(s): English Issue: 25/2019

The authors propose a methodology to calculate corrective coefficients in the process of calculating rental fees for land use. Based on the analysis carried out, a list of factors affecting the value of the coefficients is presented: general economic and political factors, factors of the municipality’s socio-economic status, factors of profitability, physical characteristics, and the geographical location of the plots of land. The authors propose a methodology to evaluate land use intensity. The authors calculated corrective coefficients used to determine rental fees for land use in Ivanovo, Russia. According to the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that the proposed methodology makes it possible to establish lower values of the corrective coefficients and, consequently, the rental fee amount for plots of land of social significance which do not yield significant profits. Based on the example of calculating corrective coefficients for land located in the city of Ivanovo, it is possible to note the increased amount of rental fees for land intended for the placement of trade facilities, public catering, consumer services, hotels, businesses and commercial buildings.

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A Model Assessing Innovativeness of Administration Units Awarding Public Contracts as a Tool to Conduct Economic Policy of the State

Author(s): Arkadiusz Borowiec / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2015

In today's market economy factors concerning knowledge, new technologies and innovative solutions are essential for economic development. However, the Polish economy, despite its high innovation potential compared to other European Union countries, is characterized by a very low level of innovativeness. Im-plementing this potential is conditioned by an appropriate economic policy of the state and rational approach to its resources and legal solutions. One of the possi-bilities of such an action is the use of public procurement instrument through which it is possible to more effectively create demand for innovative products and services.As shown by literature studies, the achievements of the subject literature asso-ciated with the creation of demand for innovations by public administration in Poland have been very modest. This gap is recognized by the article, and it at-tempts to build a model for assessing the innovativeness of these units. Network thinking methodology was used to build the model. As a result, after the identification of factors affecting the conduct of an innovative public procurement, a network of links was established between them and examined in terms of type, intensity and duration of exposure. Building a model according to the methodology, the opinions of experts have been used along with long-term observations conducted in the course of participation in all kinds of conferences and trainings. The model was also subjected to validation in two selected units.

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A model for predicting Inactivity in the European Banking Sector

Author(s): Themistokles Lazarides / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2015

Purpose – The paper will addresses the issue of inactivity and will try to detect its causes using econometric models. The Banking sector of Europe has been under transformation or restructuring for almost half a century. Design/methodology/approach – Probit models and descriptive statistics have been used to create a system that predicts inactivity. The data was collected from Bankscope. Findings – The results of the econometric models show that from the six groups of indicators, four have been found to be statistically important (performance, size, ownership, corporate governance). These findings are consistent with the theory. Research limitations/implications – The limitation is that Bankscope does not provide any longitudinal data regarding ownership, management structure and there are some many missing values before 2007 for some of the financial ratios and data. Originality/value – The paper's value and innovation is that it has given a systemic approach to find indicators of inactivity.

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A Monetary Analysis of the Liquidity Trap with an Application to the USA

Author(s): João Braz Pinto,João Sousa Andrade / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2019

Keynes emphasized a specific situation in which the liquidity preference becomes absolute, leading to monetary policy ineffectiveness when nominal interest approaches the zero-bound rate. This situation was termed a liquidity trap (LT) by Robertson and was popularized by the HicksHansen framework (IS-LM). Early macroeconomic textbooks characterized the LT as the Keynesian case against the classical one. The “lowflation” environment experienced in the USA and Europe again brought the LT to the forefront. The quantitative easing monetary policy was introduced in Japan and better applied in the USA and EMU as a solution to overcome the LT. The macroeconomic mainstream contends that the LT is essentially a money demand problem, whereas we propose another interpretation; the current situation should be interpreted as a “banking problem” that impedes the transformation of the monetary base into money supply. To prove our thesis, we study the behavior of the USA money multiplier and the income velocity of money by comparing an earlier period with the 2007-2008 crisis period. Using a VAR and a VECM model, we compare the normal situation of monetary policy efficiency with the situation of LT monetary policy inefficiency. We prove that the LT focus should not be placed on the demand for money but rather on the behavior of the money supply – more specifically, on banks’ behavior leading to the transformation of the monetary base into the money supply.

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A MULTIDIMENSIONAL AND DYNAMISED CLASSIFICATION OF POLISH PROVINCES BASED ON SELECTED FEATURES OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN 2002–2013

Author(s): Wojciech Łukaszonek / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2017

For close to two decades after the fall of communism in 1989, Polish higher education enjoyed an unprecedented period of development. Favourable political, economic, social and demographic changes led to a fivefold increase in the number of students and the number of higher educational institutions. The dynamic changes and their effects did not occur uniformly, in either space or time. An attempt is made here to identify and analyse the regional differentiation between Polish provinces in terms of features relating to higher education. To investigate the changes in higher education in the period of economic and social transformation, observations were made of fundamental characteristics of higher education in the years 2002–2013. The applied procedure uses new statistical methods applicable to a space of doubly multivariate data. The covariance matrix used to construct principal components is given the structure of a Kronecker product. The results led to the identification of six groups of provinces, including two consisting of a single province – Mazowieckie and Małopolskie provinces – which contain the largest and the highest-ranked2 higher educational institutions in Poland: the University of Warsaw and Jagiellonian University.

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A NEW AND UNIFIED APPROACH IN GENERALIZING THE LINDLEY’S DISTRIBUTION WITH APPLICATIONS

Author(s): Bouchahed Lahsen,Zeghdoudi Halim / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2018

This paper proposes a new family of continuous distributions with one extra shape parameter called the generalized Zeghdoudi distributions (GZD). We investigate the shapes of the density and hazard rate function. We derive explicit expressions for some of its mathematical quantities. Various statistical properties like stochastic ordering, moment method, maximum likelihood estimation, entropies and limiting distribution of extreme order statistics are established. We prove the flexibility of the new family by means of applications to several real data sets.

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A NEW ERA IN PUBLIC FINANCE – HOW THE COVID-19 IS RESHAPING THE SCOPE AND FUNCTIONS OF PUBLIC FINANCE IN A TIME OF MIGRANT CRISIS

Author(s): Sergiu–Dan Iurian / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2020

Throughout time public finance, more exactly the concerns regarding the income and the expenditure of public authorities and their adjustment, has been a key standing point in understanding how public finance can impact the economy. However, the current international COVID-19 crisis is reshaping the scope of public finance, meaning the ways public income, expenditure, debt and the general financial administration is being understood. Also, the main functions of public finance (allocation, distribution and stabilization) are being redesigned in order to adapt to a new are of both health and financial crisis. The purpose of this article is to take a look at the latest developments regarding these main themes, but also to anticipate the evolution of both health and public financial systems around the world.

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A NEW ESTIMATOR OF MEAN USING DOUBLE SAMPLING

Author(s): Vadlamudi Kalyan Rao,Sedory Stephen A.,Singh Sarjinder / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2017

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimation of population mean of a study variable by making use of first-phase sample mean and first-phase sample median of the auxiliary variable at the estimation stage. The proposed new estimator of the population mean is compared to the sample mean estimator, ratio estimator and the difference type estimator for the fixed cost of the survey by using the concept of two-phase sampling. The magnitude of the relative efficiency of the proposed new estimator has been investigated through simulation study.

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