№175. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

The time is not only ripe but pressing for the EU and the states of the Western Balkans to recalibrate and reinforce the current pre-accession strategy. Trade policy should be moved beyond existing free trade commitments for all the Western Balkans to enter the customs union of the EU and Turkey. Eurozone doctrine should be adapted to realities. Rather than regarding the use of the euro by Montenegro and Kosovo as an unfortunate turn of events, the costs and benefits of unilateral adoption of the euro by not-yet member states of the region should be more openly appraised, and the option to ‘euroise’ recognised as a possibility. It is good that the EU has moved at the declaratory level towards visa ‘liberalisation’, which means scrapping visas rather than just ‘facilitation’ measures. However the Commission has not yet published guidelines or timelines for this. The region should be put on track for access to the Structural Funds on terms and scales progressively approaching those from which new member states such as Bulgaria and Romania already benefit. The ratio of these aid receipts between the new member states and the Western Balkans is currently 4:1; the former are receiving more than they can handle efficiently, whereas the Western Balkans have huge unsatisfied needs. Overall the case is made for significant moves towards ‘functional membership’ of the whole of the region with the EU, which would be a highly useful advance, irrespective of how or when the EU overcomes its Lisbon Treaty hiatus.

№180. The Case for a Gas Transit Consortium in Ukraine: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

Author(s): Elena Gnedina,Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

The 2009 gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia has led to a severe drop in Russian gas supplies to some EU member states. The dispute has once again shown that the status quo is defective and unsustainable as a policy. This Policy Brief argues that – beyond ad hoc temporary measures, such as the monitoring by EU experts agreed on January 12th and the 2009-10 price agreement apparently reached on January 18th – the problem needs a comprehensive and robust solution. This would be a gas transit consortium, bringing all major stakeholders – Gazprom, Naftohaz, one or a few European energy companies, and the international financial institutions – to jointly manage the trans- Ukrainian trunk pipeline. The consortium agreement would be underwritten politically and legally by a tripartite treaty to be ratified by the EU, Russia and Ukraine. The consortium should be bound by European standards of transparency, corporate governance and accounting in order to tackle the major problem – the lack of trust – in the EU-Ukraine- Russia energy triangle.

On ‘Us’ as ‘Them’: Understanding the Historical Bases and Political Uses of Popular Narratives on Serbian Disunity

Author(s): Slobodan Naumović / Language(s): English

This paper starts from the assumption that the European future of Balkan/South East European countries depends to a significant extent on the self-perceptions and expectations of the local populations, as well as on the identities that they are yet to imagine and construct. The proper understanding of, and adequate response to, popular self-perceptions, perceptions of encompassing social realities, and expectations are held here to be vital preconditions for sustainable political development in each of the countries that constitute the region, as well as for their prospects for EU Accession. As Pierre Bourdieu would say, political action is possible because actors who are a part of the social world possess knowledge of that world, and because one can act upon the social world by infl uencing the actors’ knowledge of it. However, in order to control and change an actor’s knowledge of the world, one fi rst has to invest some effort in understanding it. This paper focuses on one particular thread in the tightly knit web of popular Serbian self-perceptions, that is, the set of narratives on Serbian disunity, disaccord and resulting splits. The paper will offer an examination of their socio-political bases, modes of functioning, as well as of consequences of their political instrumentalisation. Disunity and disaccord have acquired in the Serbian popular imaginary a notorious, quasi-demiurgic status. They are often perceived as being the chief malefactors in Serbian history, causing political or military defeats, and threatening to tear Serbian society completely apart. Out of that reason, the complex set of deep-rooted self-perceptions and self-descriptions occupies a privileged place amongst what the anthropologist Marko Živković, paraphrasing Clifford Geertz, has termed as “stories Serbs tell themselves and others about themselves”, or what, addressing a different context, Nancy Ries has named “the world of Russian talk. [...]

Domestication of the Market? Householding and Post-Peasant Society in Romania

Author(s): Vintilă Mihăilescu / Language(s): English

Recent accession to the European Union means a speedy and dramatic shift in economic culture and practices toward a common market economy and behavior. How will Romania, with about half of its population leaving in villages and about one third of its active population involved in agriculture f t into this emerging post-peasant society? What will be the main tensions and the short term adjustments of this emerging social context? Without aiming to advocate for one scenario or another, the present essay intends to explore the role households and household centered economy actually play and will play in this context.

Measuring Success of the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union in the Case of Macedonia

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) is one of the most widely discussed and analyzed policy areas of the European Union (EU). The development of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) within the framework of the CFSP took place at the end of the ‘90s, in a process that interacted with the unfolding of the crisis of the Balkan regional order. Given this context, I believe that a study on the development of the CFSP/ESDP has to investigate how the EU Crisis Management instruments have been used. The crisis that occurred in the Republic of Macedonia, in this respect, is a case of critical salience. Macedonia is a specific case in which both the civilian and the military dimension of EU Crisis Management mechanism were applied, and there exists widespread consensus in the EU on the fact that this was done successfully. However, when talking about successes or failures, a number of slippery questions arise: what indicators of success can one refer to? For example, does success refer to the fact that the ESDP mechanism has been activated without major setbacks, or to the way in which it has affected the situation in Macedonia? Is the Macedonian case a success for the CFSP? How is success determined? Which are its standards of measurement?

Internal Party Democracy in Kosovo

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

№03 Rethinking US Policy toward the Western Balkans

Author(s): James Lyon / Language(s): English

Euro-Atlantic policies towards the Western Balkans have reached the limits of their effectiveness, as countries throughout the region have hit a brick wall in the reform and European integration process. It is time to examine the effectiveness of the western alliance’s policy approach towards the Western Balkans and adjust it to meet new realities. The legacy of the wars of the 1990s means that for many Balkan states, the lure of EU integration is not as powerful as Brussels had envisioned. The failure of the Lisbon Treaty, combined with internal EU disagreement over regional and enlargement policy, has also sent a signal to the Western Balkans that EU enlargement is not as high a priority as Brussels wishes to project. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia and Serbia are all stalled in the European accession process, and in the case of Bosnia, the hard-won progress of the past 13 years has been jeopardized amid increasing rumblings of the possibility of renewed conflict and an ethnic carve-up. The “soft power” of European accession, while necessary and desirable, has clearly reached its limits as an inducement to progress. The Balkans represent low-hanging fruit in any foreign policy calculation: stability can be achieved without substantial new resources. Preventing renewed conflict is relatively simple, yet requires a new and coordinated approach. Euro-Atlantic policy must focus on halting the backward slide, stabilizing the region, and finding new ways to move it forward. This requires robust US engagement in support of a credible and strategically coherent EU policy to bolster EU “soft power.” There is an increasing risk that the international community’s investment in the Western Balkans could unravel. The US has an interest and a special responsibility, as it has spent substantial prestige and treasure in stopping the wars, and stabilizing the region. Renewed conflict could split the EU, generate transatlantic ructions, create safe havens for terrorism and organized crime, and aggravate the Muslim world. Refugee flows would create humanitarian challenges as well. This paper examines the challenges facing the western alliance in the Balkans, the limits of international influence under current policy, and the options available to enhance progress in the region. It offers five policy recommendations that will, if implemented, substantially alter the policy dynamic and assist the Euro-Atlantic alliance to stabilize the region and move it forward in the European accession process without substantial new resources. It also argues that little progress will occur in the region until the United States resumes its leadership role.

Retreat for Progress in BiH? – The German-British Initiative

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener,Toby Vogel,Valery Perry,Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

On the heels of the October general elections, representatives of Germany and the United Kingdom announced a new initiative to engage with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and re-shape its European integration path after years of stalemate or even reform regression. The initiative includes all of the off-the-shelf ingredients of previous efforts to jump-start the reform process in BiH, such as written commitments (applied in the past to police reform, constitutional reform, etc.) and a reform agenda (as in the Partnership Document). But it lacks the specificity or leverage of these past efforts. The aim seems to be to steer around all contentious issues and focus on socio-economic development without associated “political” reforms. To this end, it postpones and substantially weakens the condition that the European Court of Human Rights’ Sejdid-Finci ruling be implemented. But the economic pillars of power of the BiH political elites are just as sensitive for them as the ethno-nationalist ones. The initiative builds on the shaky foundation of the EU’s prior behavior in BiH, which has led local political leaders to rightly discount the Union’s seriousness on conditionality. Unless this perception is changed, this initiative is likely to fail just as those which preceded it.

Substantial Change on the Horizon? A Monitoring Report on the EU’s New Bosnia and Herzegovina Initiative.

Author(s): Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

In November 2014, Germany and the United Kingdom launched a new policy initiative for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). One month later, the European Union adopted the initiative as its own new EU initiative for BiH. Earlier, in February 2014, violent social protests had broken out in BiH and marked the failure of the EU’s previous policy approach in catalyzing real change in the country. At the same time, the protests drew new attention in the West to continuing problems in BiH. This enabled Berlin and London, whose dispute over the correct course of action to take in BiH had blocked the Union from having any meaningful policy, to get together behind a joint initiative. The focus of the new initiative was on structural socio-economic reform. Sensitive political issues like constitutional reform were pushed aside – for consideration at a later stage in enlargement – in order to unblock BiH’s long stalled EU integration process. From a distance, the initiative may appear successful; in September 2016, less than two years after the start of the new initiative, the Union’s General Affairs Council (GAC) referred BiH’s membership application to the European Commission to prepare an Opinion. This marked the last of three steps in the EU integration process, originally foreseen as a reward for the fulfillment of certain reform conditions. This was followed by the entering into force of the long-delayed Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) and BiH’s official application for membership. In addition, the centerpiece of the initiative, the so-called Reform Agenda was agreed and implementation initiated. However, close examination of the state of reform within the scope of the EU initiative challenges this positive impression. The reality is that the limited reforms achieved so far are fragile, sustainability of the reforms is highly questionable and the long-term socio-political outlook remains tenuous.

DPC POLICY NOTE 05: Negotiating Conditionality: An Updated Review of the European Union Progress Reports for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Author(s): Patrick Dick / Language(s): English

The purpose of this updated report is to review the European Union’s (EU) evolving approach to Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in assessing fulfillment of EU membership conditions. In particular, this report is concerned with the following questions: How have EU requirements for BiH changed over time, if at all?, and; Have priorities evolved, and, if so, how? The European Commission “has drawn detailed conclusions regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina… based on the technical analysis contained in… the annual EU Progress Reports for accession-bound countries.” These Progress Reports are technical in nature, but are nonetheless collective assessments generated by a committee of diagnostic evaluators. Apart from the political and economic situation, the Progress Reports “review Bosnia and Herzegovina’s capacity to implement European standards, that is, to gradually make legislation in key policy areas more compatible with European legislation and standards.” As such, they are a useful barometer of progress made not only in reform, but also expectations and requirements.3 They provide a useful annual baseline to consider both the status of the country in question in its reform and accession preparations, as well as the EU’s expectations for the country in question. In an effort to answer the above questions, the author has analyzed the annual EU Progress Reports for Bosnia and Herzegovina from 2005 – 2013. These reports break down EU requirements by topic and sector. They are published with a nearly identical structure year after year, which facilitates comparison. The following five areas are examined: Agriculture, the Constitution, the Judicial System, Education, and Minority Rights and Protection. These sections were chosen for their link to constitutional reform issues—specifically those identified as crucial for EU accession (justice, agriculture, constitution)—as well as broader human rights issues related to BiH as a post-war, transition state (education, minority rights).

DPC BOSNIA DAILY: Sideshow Stefan and Mendacious Seven

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener / Language(s): English

Bosnia Daily: February 19, 2014 – Sideshow Stefan and Mendacious Seven

DPC BOSNIA DAILY: The EU's Responsibility Failure in Bosnia

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener / Language(s): English

Bosnia Daily: November 18, 2015 – The EU's Responsibility Failure in Bosnia

DPC BOSNIA DAILY: The German-British Initiative (II)

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener,Toby Vogel,Valery Perry,Bodo Weber / Language(s): English

Bosnia Daily: November 18, 2014 – The German-British Initiative (II)

DPC BOSNIA DAILY: Highlights and Lowlights: Take Your PIC

Author(s): Valery Perry / Language(s): English

Bosnia Daily: December 7, 2015 – Highlights and Lowlights: Take Your PIC

DPC BOSNIA DAILY: Proposal For a New Policy Approach. Revolution Is Not Required, but a Strategic Reassessment Is

Author(s): Bodo Weber,Kurt Bassuener / Language(s): English

Bosnia Daily: May 20, 2013 – Proposal For a New Policy Approach. Revolution Is Not Required, but a Strategic Reassessment Is

DPC BOSNIA DAILY: Stop Funding BiH Politicians' Irresponsibility

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener / Language(s): English

Bosnia Daily: January 16, 2014 – Stop Funding BiH Politicians' Irresponsibility

№ 25 THE SPECTRE OF A MULTIPOLAR EUROPE

Author(s): Ivan Yotov Krastev,Mark Leonard,Dimitar Bechev,Jana Kobzova,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

The EU’s ‘unipolar moment’ is over. In the 1990s, the EU’s grand hope was that American hard power would underpin the spread of European soft power and the integration of all Europe’s powers into a liberal order – embodied in NATO and the EU – in which the rule of law, pooled sovereignty and interdependence would gradually replace military conflict, the balance of power and spheres of influence. However, the prospects for this unipolar multilateral European order are fading. The dilemma facing the European Union in its own continent is somewhat similar to that faced by the US at a global level. The EU can do little to prevent Europe’s evolution from a unipolar to a multipolar order; but it can do a lot to shape the relations between its emerging poles. The new approach would take advantage of a political opening created by Moscow’s desire to modernise and Turkey’s search for a regional role, and recast the continent’s institutional order for a world in which Europe is increasingly peripheral and in which a weak neighbour can be as frightening as a strong one. It would be the first step towards creating a trilateral rather than a tripolar Europe: a new institutional order in the continent that (to paraphrase Lord Ismay) keeps the EU united, Russia post-imperial and Turkey European.

Montenegro on the Brink: Avoiding another Yugoslav War

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Montenegro is a small republic—with a population of 635,000—which, together with Serbia, makes up today’s Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. It is at a crucial moment: the present government leadership is considering how to re-define its fundamental relationship with Serbia. On December 3-4, 1999 the Project on Ethnic Relations (PER) organized a meeting in Budva, on Montenegro’s Adriatic coast, about the status of Montenegro in Yugoslavia. Some 40 leading officials and policymakers from Montenegro, Albania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Romania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, the United States, Italy, the OSCE and the United Nations, as well as from the Serbian democratic opposition, participated. They addressed Montenegro’s relationship with Serbia, its role in the western Balkans, and how Montenegro is managing interethnic relations, especially with its Albanian minority. The tenor was one of cautious candor, with an emphasis on positive accomplishments. Indeed, the uncertainty and lack of unanimity that characterized reactions to political developments in Montenegro reflected the open nature of the dialogue.

The Year 2000 Elections in Romania: Interethnic Relations and European Integration

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Despite the difficulties that have beset Romania in its transition from communism to democracy, it boasts a most important success in interethnic relations. Few would have predicted, after the disastrous violence between Romanians and ethnic Hungarians in Tirgu Mures in 1990, that only six years later the ethnic Hungarian party would be a respected member of Romania’s governing coalition.The Project on Ethnic Relations was an active participant in bringing about this result, initiating the first discussions and negotiations between leaders of the preceding government and the Hungarian minority, and replacing confrontation with a pattern of dialogue that persists to this day. The achievement, however, is untested by time. With the year 2000 elections underway in Romania, ethnic issues are already being raised in the campaign.

Yugoslavia at the Crossroads

Author(s): / Language(s): English

On December 14-15, 2001, senior Yugoslav, Serbian and Montenegrin politicians, as well as Serb leaders from Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, met with political leaders and high-level officials from Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Macedonia, Romania and the United States. Senior officials from the European Union (EU), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the United Nations (UN) also took part. The meeting, entitled “The New Yugoslavia and Its Neighbors: A Regional Dialogue,” was held in Belgrade and marked the start of a new Project on Ethnic Relations (PER) initiative, called “Serbs and Their Neighbors.” This new PER series complements another, started in April 2000, called “Albanians and Their Neighbors.”Their goal is to sustain a serious regional discussion about the two most pressing ethno-political issues in Europe today.The meeting was held one year after the democratic change took place in Belgrade. The destructive regime of Slobodan Milosevic was toppled, beginning a new era not only for Yugoslavia but for the entire region. Yugoslav democratic forces had endured a decade of grave conditions and are now trying to lead the country back into the European family.