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DAV4 II Report: From Battlegroup to Permanent Structures

DAV4 II Report: From Battlegroup to Permanent Structures

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Polish Institute of International Affairs presents a joint policy report: From Battlegroup to Permanent Structures, prepared in the framework of the research project Defence Austerity in the Visegrad Region II – DAV4 II, funded by the Interantional Visegrad Fund (IVF). The authors of the report argue, that the EU Battlegroup build together by the Visegrad countries and scheduled to enter standby in 2016, should be followed by permanent forms of defence and military cooperation between Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. The policy report, which also aims to contribute to the debate about the future of the EU Battlegroups, was prepared by Central European Policy Institute (Slovakia), in cooperation with PISM (Poland), International Centre for Democratic Transition (Hungary) and Jagello 2000 (Czech Republic).

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The Religious and Political Nature of the Pan-Orthodox Council

The Religious and Political Nature of the Pan-Orthodox Council

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

The decision of the patriarchates of Antioch, Georgia, Bulgaria and Russia not to participate in the council held in Crete from 19 to 26 June means that the meeting cannot be considered “Pan-Orthodox” as intended. The four declined to attend for reasons of jurisdiction and ambition. Unofficially, the council discussed issues of the divided Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the status of the Russian Orthodox Church outside Russia. In future, Orthodoxy will be increasingly influenced by the rivalry between the Patriarchate of Constantinople, which holds the honorary presidency, and the largest Patriarchate of Moscow and All Russia.

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The Domino Effect: Impact of the Global Climate Agreement on Post-2020 EU Emissions Trading Scheme Reform

The Domino Effect: Impact of the Global Climate Agreement on Post-2020 EU Emissions Trading Scheme Reform

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Julia Michalak / Language(s): English

At the end of 2015 a landmark climate accord was adopted at the COP21 climate summit in Paris. The Paris Agreement may significantly impact the ongoing debate about the post-2020 reform of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme, proposed by the European Commission in mid-2015. To reflect the Paris Agreement in the EU’s domestic policies, some Member States may advocate strengthening the Commission’s proposal. In such a scenario the Polish government should call for an increase of the Modernisation Fund and auction allowance redistribution rules, supporting energy transition in lower-income Member States.

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Spain Strives to Boost the EU’s Relations with Latin America and the Caribbean
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Spain Strives to Boost the EU’s Relations with Latin America and the Caribbean

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The Spanish government cites the deepening of the European Union’s partnership with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) among the main objectives of its presidency of the Council of the EU, which begins on 1 July this year. The first summit of heads of state and government of both regions since 2015, scheduled for 17-18 July in Brussels, is the main point on that agenda. The deficit of mutual interest between EU and LAC states and differences over trade liberalisation and Russian aggression against Ukraine are just some of the challenges in strengthening the bi-regional partnership. The recent decision of the Spanish authorities to call snap parliamentary elections on 23 July will complicate the presidency’s plans.

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A New Rapprochement in Romanian - Moldovan Relations
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A New Rapprochement in Romanian - Moldovan Relations

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Since Maia Sandu became president of Moldova in December 2020, Romanian-Moldovan relations have steadily improved. In November 2021 she met for a fourth time with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, signing a “roadmap” of cooperation. Both countries recognise that a linguistic, historical, and cultural community binds them, however the challenge is to move from declarations to the implementation of projects, especially in infrastructure. Romania’s effective involvement in such projects, given its special ties with Moldova, may contribute to the success of its pro-European transformation, which is also supported by Poland.

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Senegalese President to Lead the African Union in 2022
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Senegalese President to Lead the African Union in 2022

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 5 February, the President of Senegal Macky Sall took over the annual chairmanship of the African Union. The chair’s priorities will be to rebuild the continent’s economies after the pandemic, increase resilience to future crises, and strengthen regional institutions strained by the recent wave of military coups. Polish President Andrzej Duda’s planned visit to Senegal will be an opportunity to place bilateral cooperation in a wider, continental context.

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Finland Foreign Policy: Adjusting to (Not So) New Priorities
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Finland Foreign Policy: Adjusting to (Not So) New Priorities

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine has led to a significant change in Finland’s long-standing Russia policy and triggered the landmark decision to apply for membership in NATO. At the same time, in response to the Russian aggression, Finland continues to build on existing processes of strengthening relations with the U.S. and Nordic partners and aiming to increase the EU’s effectiveness as an international actor. Convergence with Poland on the perception of threats, policy towards Russia and Ukraine, as well as common interests related to security, make Finland a natural and desired partner, not only in NATO but also in the EU.

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From Cooperation to Confrontation: India’s Policy towards China
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From Cooperation to Confrontation: India’s Policy towards China

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The latest India-China border standoff are a manifestation of the growing rivalry between the two Asian powers and may turn out to be a turning point in India’s policy towards China. The historical border disputes are augmented by the widening economic tensions and different strategic interests, including a closer China-Pakistan alliance and rapprochement between India and the U.S. Although it is in India’s interest to stay away from the increasingly fierce U.S.-China rivalry, the latter’s confrontational attitude may induce India to deepen cooperation with the Americans.

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Consequences of the Normalisation of Relations between Israel and Gulf States
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Consequences of the Normalisation of Relations between Israel and Gulf States

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The normalisation of relations with Israel undertaken by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain is one of the most important processes affecting the political situation in the Middle East. The process weakens the Palestinian leadership and strengthens the bloc of countries competing with Iran and Turkey, which may increase tensions in the region. The level of involvement of U.S. diplomacy and the lack of opposition from Arab League (AL) members indicate that Israeli-Arab normalisation - beneficial from the EU perspective - will deepen.

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Moldova Hosts 2nd European Political Community Summit
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Moldova Hosts 2nd European Political Community Summit

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

On 1 June, the second summit of the European Political Community (EPC) took place at the Castelul Mimi vineyard in Bulboaca, Moldova. Like the first meeting, this time the high political level also did not translate into joint decisions. The summit served the pro-European Moldovan authorities - President Maia Sandu and the ruling presidential Party of Action and Solidarity - to promote the country, its aspirations for European Union membership, and its security support needs.

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U.S. Secretary of State’s First European Visit
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U.S. Secretary of State’s First European Visit

Author(s): Mateusz M. Piotrowski,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

On 23-24 March, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken participated in the session of the North Atlantic Council in the format of NATO states’ foreign ministers. He also held separate meetings with the Secretary General of the Alliance, his counterparts from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the countries of the Visegrad Group and the Baltic States, and representatives of European Union institutions.

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President Duda Visits Turkey
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President Duda Visits Turkey

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

President Andrzej Duda is paying a state visit to Turkey (24-25 May), aiming to strengthen Polish-Turkish relations, especially in the area of security. It is also an attempt to persuade Turkey to play a greater role in the deterrence of Russia on NATO’s Eastern Flank.

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Declaration on Normalisation between Israel and the United Arab Emirates
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Declaration on Normalisation between Israel and the United Arab Emirates

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

On 13 August, in a tripartite statement issued jointly with the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) the normalisation of relations was announced. The decision suspends Israel’s plans to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank. It is also a significant political success for Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump.

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Kim-Trump Meet in Panmunjom
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Kim-Trump Meet in Panmunjom

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

On 30 June, U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met for the third time, in a meeting notable for Trump walking into North Korea. The event was mainly an image-building opportunity for both leaders but they did agree to revive working-level negotiations on denuclearisation and sanctions. For North Korea, the meeting is another step in overcoming political isolation. For South Korea, whose president Moon Jae-in accompanied both leaders, it was a chance to regain significance as an intermediary in the U.S.-North Korea talks.

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Strategic Planning for Political Parties: A Practical Tool
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Strategic Planning for Political Parties: A Practical Tool

Author(s): Caspar van den Berg,Kati Piri,Sam van der Staak,Levan Tsutskiridze / Language(s): English

This publication provides a practical tool to help political parties conduct strategic planning and offers assistance providers and political parties alike a step-by-step methodology for conducting this planning process. If political parties want to prepare adequately for tomorrow’s political developments, they have to invest in their organization and its foundations. Doing so is only possible if the political party’s organizational structure and processes adequately reflect the rapidly changing political landscape that surrounds it. This means regularly analysing surroundings and adapting to new developments using broad input from within the party.

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China’s pressure on the Philippines: the risk of an escalating conflict
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China’s pressure on the Philippines: the risk of an escalating conflict

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Despite its formal defence alliance with the United States, the Philippines has been grappling with China’s increasing pressure in the South China Sea. The growing number of maritime incidents risks escalating local tensions into a full-scale confrontation between China and the US. China’s claims exceed merely establishing its own exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the disputed area; it seeks to assert a form of sovereignty akin to that of territorial waters, which are regarded as integral to a nation’s territory. Thus, the South China Sea issue extends beyond a straightforward dispute over the delimitation of the EEZ and challenges fundamental norms of international relations.

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A Journey into a glorious past: three terms of Georgian Dream
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A Journey into a glorious past: three terms of Georgian Dream

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

The 12 years of Georgian Dream (GD) rule have been marked by a series of successes in terms of political effectiveness and tangible achievements. The party has won parliamentary and local elections three times, and candidates backed by Georgian Dream have twice secured the presidency. Polls predict that in the forthcoming parliamentary elections on 26 October, Georgian Dream will once again secure the most votes. Under the governance of this party, Georgia signed an association agreement with the European Union, Georgian citizens were granted visa-free travel to the Schengen Area, and in December 2023, the country obtained EU candidate status.

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Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working
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Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Since December 2023, the US administration has been increasing its pressure on Russia’s financial sector and its foreign partners. This has made it progressively more difficult for the Russian Federation to pay for imported goods and services. Reports from Russian media and businesses also indicate that several Chinese banks have ceased their cooperation with Russia due to concerns over US secondary sanctions. Nonetheless, these challenges have not yet led to any significant alterations to Russia’s foreign trade. According to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), in the first eight months of 2024, the value of imports fell by approximately 8% year-on-year, while exports declined by more than 1%. This relatively modest reduction suggests that Russian entities, in collaboration with their foreign partners, particularly those in the Global South, continue to find ways to circumvent the sanctions. However, the costs of importing goods are increasing and delivery times are lengthening. Consequently, inflation continues to rise, further exacerbating Russia’s economic woes.

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The end of prosperity: The state of Belarusian refineries
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The end of prosperity: The state of Belarusian refineries

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The sanctions imposed by the West after 2020, along with the involvement of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime in the invasion of Ukraine, have severely impacted Belarus’spetrochemical sector. The EU’s embargo on the import of petroleum products, enforced since June 2021, has effectively cut off Belarusian exporters from profitable Western markets. Furthermore, sales to Ukraine, one of the country’s key markets, have also been halted due to the ongoing war.The Belarusian oil sector, once a significant source of profit, has recently been compelled to reorganise its supply logistics and redirect its exports. Following a challenging year in 2022, Belarus’s two refineries, with support from Moscow, managed to partially recover their losses by capitalising on favourable price trends in the Russian fuel market. However, this industry, along with other sectors of the economy, has become entirely dependent on cooperation with Russia. While the refineries have adapted to the new circumstances, they were still forced to reduce oil processing by approximately one-third, which has negatively impacted their profitability and, consequently, diminished their importance within the national economy.

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Low speed rail. Delays in the implementation of the Rail Baltica project
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Low speed rail. Delays in the implementation of the Rail Baltica project

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Sandra Baniak / Language(s): English

Alongside Via Baltica, Rail Baltica (RB), which involves the construction of a high-speed railway (HSR) connecting the Baltic state’s capitals, has been the most important infrastructural venture carried out by these states since they regained independence. Due to mounting costs, the high rate of inflation recorded in recent years, the expansion of the scope of work and bureaucratic problems, its implementation is at least five years behind schedule. An almost four-fold increase in its cost, from €5.8 bn to €23.8 bn, is the biggest challenge, as now the project’s funding is in excess of the financial capacity of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. RB has been included in the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), as a result of which the Baltic states are obliged to complete the investment by 2030. Although Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have mainly financed its implementation from EU funds (85% of the eligible costs), these sums are highly insufficient. If the Baltic states fail to obtain further EU funds for this purpose, there is practically no chance of completing the investment, that is constructing all the planned sections and adjusting these to the required HSR parameters, in this time frame.

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