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Russian soft power in the Balkans: Bosnia and Serbia, two states in comparison

Author(s): Giulia Stefano / Language(s): English

Currently (2018), the two main supporters of the region, the USA and the EU seem both too taken by their internal problems. Europe is indeed losing its attractiveness because of its own crisis and above all after Juncker’s statement about no chances of enlargement in the next 5 years1, postponing the process to 2025. On the other side, there are Turkey and Russia. Turkey, with its neo-Ottoman foreign policy, is playing a great role in the area, offering a new authoritarian model. Russia, also exploiting this vacuum left by the West, is trying to affirm its influence, mainly using the Orthodox Church ties and weapons trade. The most affected countries are Serbia and Bosnia Herzegovina: in different ways, approaches and perspectives, but they are the ones Russia is looking to in strengthening its position in the region, above all after Montenegro’s NATO accession. Hence, the research is going to focus on the comparison between Russian interference in Serbia, always considered a great ally with shared roots and traditions, and BiH where Russian presence is peculiar, through a direct impact on the Serb and Croat political leaders.

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Game over? The future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Sławomir Matuszak,Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s seizure of a portion of Russian territory containing strategically important gas infrastructure assets has not resulted in a reduction of Russian gas flow to EU consumers. However, the rising security risks along this route in recent weeks have fuelled questions about the future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine after the current transit agreement expires at the end of 2024, as well as the potential impact of the forthcoming changes on the stability of supplies.

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Zelensky, Yermak and Ukraine’s wartime governance

Author(s): Marcin Jędrysiak / Language(s): English

A peculiar political system has emerged during the five years of Volodymyr Zelensky’s rule in Ukraine, with virtually all power concentrated in the hands of the head of state and the Office of the President of Ukraine (OPU) which he controls. The Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) and the Cabinet of Ministers have been marginalised, and the most important decisions in the country are made at Bankova Street, where the president and his administration are based. This is partly a consequence of the characteristic prevalence of informal governance mechanisms over formal ones in Ukraine, which includes the role of the president being greater than laid out under the constitution.

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The demise of the West and the dawn of the Asian Era: Orbán’s vision of the world

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English

On 27 July 2024, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered his annual keynote speech in Băile Tușnad, Transylvania, Romania, which was almost entirely focussed on global issues. Orbán emphasised that Europe needs to emancipate itself from US influence, shift away from supporting Kyiv, and pursue an agreement with Moscow. He also criticised Poland’s pro-American policy aimed at weakening Russia, which he described as wrong and “doomed to fail”. Furthermore, he underscored the necessity of acknowledging the rise of Asian powers, viewing this as an opportunity, particularly with regard to cooperation with China.

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A difficult legacy. Tensions over how to interpret the shared past of Lithuanian and Belarusian peoples

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Hostile attitudes towards Belarusians in Lithuania have become more widespread as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with Belarus’s involvement. This animosity has been further exacerbated by the ongoing debate in the Lithuanian media about how to interpret the two nations’ shared, centuries-old history. The key context for these tensions is the significant growth of the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania over the past four years (c. 63,000 people) and the influx of 86,000 Ukrainian citizens and 16,000 Russians following the outbreak of war in 2022. This situation has confronted Lithuanian politicians and special services with the challenge of identifying and preventing possible threats. They have been closely monitoring efforts to disseminate radical, nationalist, and other views inspired by Belarusian and Russian special services with the aim of dividing the two nations. Such views include the concept of the so-called ‘Litvinism’, a pseudo-scientific theory which claims that the medieval Lithuanians were in fact Belarusians and that they founded the Grand Duchy of Lithuania (GDL). If this theory were to be legitimised, Lithuania’s right to the Vilnius region could be called into question. Leaders of the Belarusian diaspora have supported Lithuania’s position that rejects Litvinism and have viewed any efforts to popularise this idea as attempts to drive a wedge between the two nations.

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Looking for a way out: Latvia’s demographic crisis

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): English

Due to its negative natural increase and emigration, Latvia is one of the fastest depopulating countries in the world, losing 18,000–20,000 inhabitants annually – the equivalent of a medium-sized Latvian town. Although the country’s political and intellectual elite recognised the problem following the 2007 economic crisis, Latvia has failed to implement comprehensive measures and devise a political strategy to reverse or at least slow down the negative trends. The gloomy picture of Latvian demography is further blurred by the absence of social consensus on solving these problems, including, to some degree, allowing immigration from outside the EU. Another major issue is the unprecedented magnitude of the Latvian population’s health problems compared to other EU member states.

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Short-term stability and long-term problems. The demographic situation in Russia

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Russia has seen a negative natural population growth rate for three decades, except for a brief period between 2013 and 2015. Since 2020, the natural population decline has no longer been offset by a positive migration balance. As a result, the Russian population has been consistently decreasing, primarily due to long-term demographic problems such as a decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. These adverse trends have been compounded by immediate challenges: the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a noticeable increase in the number of deaths, and the ongoing war with Ukraine, the demographic impact of which is difficult to estimate, since the number of casualties has not been disclosed by the authorities.

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Azerbaijan in 2024: dizzy with success

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Azerbaijan’s restoration of its territorial integrity in the period from 2020 to 2023 marked the culmination of a thirty-year effort. The country’s foreign and security policy was subordinated to the overarching goal of recovering Nagorno-Karabakh and other lost territories. However, this objective also determined its domestic policy: it legitimised the necessity of its authoritarian rule, and even reinforced it by allowing the government to consider any opposition activity as a priori detrimental to the country’s defence capabilities in the face of an external threat. The long-lasting conflict with Armenia also had important social (the influx of displaced persons and refugees) and cultural (nation- and state-building) dimensions. The recent military success has strengthened and legitimised President Ilham Aliyev’s position as a victorious leader.

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A country of interim governments. The political crisis in Bulgaria and the attempts to solve it

Author(s): Łukasz Kobeszko / Language(s): English

Bulgaria has held five parliamentary elections over the past three years. On 9 June, the citizens of this country will once again elect a new parliament in yet another snap election. A series of interim cabinets appointed by President Rumen Radev, without the parliament being involved, have governed for a significant part of this time as it has been impossible to form a working government based on a parliamentary majority. The experiment of the so-called rotating government, created after the 2023 elections by the two largest parliamentary forces, the centre-right GERB and the centrist-liberal We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), also proved unsuccessful.

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China’s European bridgehead. Hungary’s dangerous relationship with Beijing

Author(s): Ilona Gizińska,Paulina Uznańska / Language(s): English

As the European Union tightens its stance towards China while the latter continues its expansion in the e-mobility sector, Chinese-Hungarian relations have gained new momentum. After a decade of difficulties in implementing joint infrastructural projects, new investments by Chinese giants such as CATL and BYD are set to turn Hungary into a manufacturing hub for Chinese electric vehicles in Europe and one of the world’s leading producers of lithium-ion batteries. Hungary is also ready to deepen its economic relations with China despite the de-risking policy that the European Commission has advocated.

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A holy war. The Russian Orthodox Church blesses the war against the West

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) have supported the war and justified Russia’s aggressive policy since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. There have been very few voices criticising the invasion among the clergy, and any such instances of criticism have been consistently suppressed due to censorship within the church and the state. Over the past few weeks, the ROC’s position has become even more unequivocal and radical. On 27 March, the World Russian People’s Council (Всемирный Русский Народный Собор), an organisation associated with the ROC and chaired by Patriarch Kirill, published a policy paper in which the war in Ukraine was called a “holy war”. The document identified the “West immersed in Satanism” as the main enemy of Russia and the Russian people and one which poses a threat not only to them but also to the entire Russian civilisation and Christian religion, from which it (the West) has turned away.

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Putin’s spectacle: the Soviet-style presidential ‘election’

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

The presidential pseudo-election on 15–17 March was orchestrated to be an unequivocal triumph for Vladimir Putin, and as proof of allegedly overwhelming public support for his policies, including the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The authorities employed methods of manipulating and falsifying the results on an unprecedented scale, including compelling people to participate in completely opaque online voting. The record-high official result for Putin (87.3%) and turnout (77.4%), reportedly the highest in the Russian Federation’s history, are entirely unreliable. However, such results are expected to give the president carte blanche to continue his dictatorial rule – most likely for life.

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UK Returns to Space Cooperation with the EU

Author(s): Aleksandra Kozioł / Language(s): English

The agreement to associate the UK into the EU’s Earth Observation Programme Copernicus breaks the post-Brexit deadlock on the issue. It demonstrates the importance of European space cooperation in the face of increasing global competition. The agreement will strengthen further Copernicus development. It could also provide an incentive to coordinate space security activities between the EU and the UK.

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Israel Remains Firm on Gaza Operations 100 Days After Start of War Against Hamas

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

In the course of its ground operation in Gaza, since October, Israel has still not achieved its declared strategic objectives of defeating Hamas and freeing hostages. The withdrawal of some forces from the northern Gaza Strip, which began at the start of the new year, will do little to improve the current humanitarian situation for the civilian population given the continuing intensity of fighting in Hamas-controlled areas. Despite growing international pressure for a ceasefire, the Israeli government is trying to maintain its current strategy in the conflict with Hamas.

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Republicans Split on U.S. Support for Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Republicans are divided over support for Ukraine. Supporters of its continuation, who make up the majority of the party, are seeking more influence in the public debate. But the ongoing campaign ahead of the presidential and congressional elections, dominated by the voices of sceptics, is making it difficult to change the mood among conservative voters. The use of anti-Ukrainian slogans in the campaign may cause the number of supporters of aid to Ukraine in Congress to shrink after this November’s elections.

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Pivot to the east. Russia’s transport policy

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

As a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which has been ongoing since 2014, and the ensuing Western sanctions, Russia has reoriented its foreign trade towards the East. This is a permanent shift which stems from Russia’s security objectives. Therefore, the Kremlin aims to further reduce Russia’s dependence on economic ties with Europe and to intensify cooperation with Asian countries. The reorientation of trade and the necessity to prioritise deliveries for the military have become serious challenges for the country’s transport sector. From the Kremlin’s perspective, the primary role of freight transport infrastructure is to ensure the diversification of export routes, particularly for energy resources. Consequently, the government has prioritised projects to expand the country’s railway and port networks in the Russian Far East and the border infrastructure with China. Nevertheless, Russia is striving to develop all alternative transport routes leading directly to the countries of the Global South, including the North–South Corridor and the Northern Sea Route.

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Between hope and illusion. Germany’s migration policy

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

The surge in asylum applications in a situation when the state is taking care of more than 800,000 refugees from Ukraine has led to a multi-faceted crisis in Germany. Like the previous migration crisis in 2015, disputes between the federal states and the federation over funding have arisen, and the local authorities responsible for providing shelter and care to asylum seekers do not have enough places for them. However, the much more serious challenge to Germany’s political elite involves the loss of the public’s confidence in the state, combined with a prevailing conviction that the government has lost control of migration policy in its broadest sense. The fact that Germany’s leaders are constantly making demands of their citizens, combined with the immigrants’ insufficient integration into German society, have triggered public resistance. As a consequence, support for the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) party has been on the rise. At present, the AfD is the second most popular party after the Christian Democrats in polls conducted at the federal level, and it is now the most popular party in the eastern federal states, where its level of support is running at over 30%. The mounting economic crisis may further exacerbate the situation, and if this happens the authorities will face problems regarding the distribution of wealth and resources to citizens and asylum seekers.

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Making up for lost time. Germany in the era of the Zeitenwende

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż,Kamil Frymark,Michał Kędzierski,Lidia Gibadło,Sebastian Płóciennik,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

The Zeitenwende, the ‘new era’ in German policy which Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed after Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, is usually associated with a radical U-turn in the areas of energy and security. However, these connotations are imprecise at least on two levels. Firstly, over time it has turned out that the shift in Germany’s political strategy has not been so decisive, as can be seen in the steps that have been taken with regard to the reform of the Bundeswehr. Secondly, the SPD-Greens-FDP government wants the Zeitenwende to encompass many other key areas of politics and the economy.

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Focused on survival. The Belarusian political and business elite post-2020

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The marginalisation of the civilian segment of the state apparatus at all levels of government which has been ongoing since 2020 is to the advantage of the state security sector which at present forms the main internal pillar of Lukashenka’s rule. This marginalisation has been the main trend impacting on the situation in the Belarusian ruling camp. It has become a priority for Minsk to maintain the country’s stability through the far-reaching control of citizens. The fact that politics has been dominated by the siloviks has led to an unprecedented increase in the oppressiveness of the regime, and in a decrease in the efficiency of the state apparatus as a whole. At the same time, other areas of government activity, such as the economy, society and culture, have receded into the background. Proponents of liberal or at least more flexible solutions, for their part, choose not to show any initiative, fearing the consequences. Instead, they try to adapt to the current policy of ideological indoctrination and repression and to a restrictive model of a centrally planned economy.

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Forward into the past. Russia’s politics of memory in the service of ‘eternal’ authoritarianism

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

The Kremlin's vision of the past is becoming increasingly ideologised. This applies especially to the notion of victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, which has become a kind of a founding myth of Putinism. The historical narrative is intended to legitimise the authoritarian system of government as being optimal for Russia, and thus to perpetuate the model of state-society relationship that serves the Kremlin’s interests. Its important function is to justify Moscow's aggressive foreign policy in the twenty-first century and its ambitions to influence the international order, including the European security architecture.This report raises a number of questions. How does the regime guard the ‘canonical’ vision of the past? Why is popular culture one of the most effective tools for shaping minds in a militarised and authoritarian manner? Why do Russians view Stalin more and more favourably, and how does it correspond with the fact that more and more young people are eager to research the difficult history of their families, communities and hometowns? How does the Internet help? In search of answers, the authors examine both the activity of the state and the changes in the mentality of Russian citizens.

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