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№134: Azerbaijan’s Risky Game between Russia and the West

Author(s): Kamran Ismayilov,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Azerbaijan recently had to face a wave of criticism from the European institutions (the OSCE and theEuropean Parliament) due to its government’s undemocratic practices. In response, Baku accused itsEuropean partners of Islamophobia and declared the suspension of parliamentary cooperation in theframework of the EU’s Euronest. The Azerbaijani ruling elite also blames the West of supporting a“fifth column” in Azerbaijan (meaning civil society organisations) as well as of giving political support toits arch-enemy Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the same time authorities in Baku aredisplaying their developing political partnership with Russia. This paper examines the consequences ofthe crisis in relations between the EU and Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani-Russian rapprochement for theprospects for EU-Azerbaijan energy projects and regional security in the South Caucasus.

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№104: Pulling the Rope: The Struggle between Official and Popular Islam in Egypt

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

As so often in the past after political upheavals, the state in Egypt is trying to get a strong grip on Islam. But it is only able to control the institutionalised element of the religion (“official” Islam), whereas the uncontrollable and fragmented form, “popular” Islam, meaning the real source of religious inspiration for people, is metamorphosing. The result of this process will not only determine the future agents of mass mobilisation but may also signal a broader social transformation in the Arab world in the long term.

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№093: A Little-Known Success Story: Implementation of the NSS Goals in Central Europe

Author(s): Katarzyna Kubiak / Language(s): English

The Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) process aims for the international coordination of efforts to improve nuclear security. However, in the absence of globally binding norms, mechanisms, accountability and transparency, nuclear security principally remains a national matter. The Central European states, in particular Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Ukraine, are part of the NSS success story. The key drivers have been the Central European states’ longing for recognition as part of the West, the personal engagement of individuals in the governmental apparatus, and the fact that cooperation on nuclear security enables intensified relation-building with the United States. Taking into account their past achievements, the states of Central Europe can also play an important role in advancing the continuity of the NSS process and leading by example with contributions to nuclear security at the regional level.

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A revolution in instalments. Whither Pashinyan’s Armenia now?

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

In mid-August, a hundred days passed since Nikol Pashinyan took office as Armenia’s Prime Minister, which is an office of key importance for the Armenian political system. Formerly an opposition MP, Pashinyan rose to power as a result of a bloodless revolution. He replaced Serzh Sargsyan, whose camp had ruled Armenia for the last two decades. The country’s domestic situation is stable and its economy is growing. However, the parliamentary majority and significant business assets remain in the hands of the old elite, which considerably reduces the present leadership’s room for manoeuvre.

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The Free State of Bavaria and its party: the CSU faces an electoral test

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

The Christian Social Union (CSU) has ruled Bavaria continuously for sixty years. The CSU’s domination of the province’s political scene, together with its influence on federal policies through its partnership with the CDU in the Bundestag, has made the party one of the most effective groups in Europe. In the medium term Bavaria will have to face challenges connected with the transformation and digitisation of industry, which could undermine the province’s current economic model. In addition, the CSU is being confronted on the political scene by Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a grouping which has a similar profile to the CSU in several aspects. The elections on 14 October 2018 could permanently change the balance of power in Bavaria’s Landtag, lead to a serious weakening of the CSU’s dominance in Bavaria, and affect Germany’s federal politics.The CSU owes its electoral success to a conservative profile combined with the province’s economic achievements, as well as the ability to adapt its programme to changing social trends. Voters see the party as both a guarantor of Bavaria’s economic success and the advocate of the interests of vulnerable social groups. However, the CSU is undergoing a transformation which may result in it losing its status as a mass party appealing to all social groups. These changes are structural in nature; they result primarily from the aging of its traditional electorate and the inflow into Bavaria of residents from other German provinces. This process is overlapping with a strong polarisation within German society (including Bavaria) regarding its approach to the migration crisis. The biggest beneficiary of these changes has been the AfD. A good result for this party in the elections to the Bavarian parliament could permanently change the balance of political forces there. The CSU would be unable to defend an absolute majority, and it would have to seek coalition partners in order to form further governments.

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Daleko od Rygi: łotewskie problemy niezrównoważonego rozwoju

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): Polish

Latvia’s economic situation is gradually deteriorating due to its uneven development. One of the main reasons for this is that the metropolis of Riga accounts for as much as two-thirds of the country’s economic growth. Economic and social indicators for Latvia’s regions are sometimes several times lower than those for its capital. The non-metropolitan areas are struggling with numerous problems: high unemployment, an aging population, deteriorating living standards, insufficient medical care, or a shrinking network of educational institutions. Another important fact is that local governments often function like ‘appanage principalities’. If the current trends continue, the state will continue to fall behind its neighbours Estonia and Lithuania.

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Turkey’s dream of a hub. Ankara’s wartime gas policy

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

Natural gas plays a key role in Turkey’s economy and energy sector, with the country’s gas consumption growing in recent years. At the same time, Turkey is fully dependent on imports of this resource, including large quantities from Russia. However, for years it has been implementing a policy of diversification, which has brought tangible results. Along this, it has been expanding its import infrastructure to diversify its gas supply sources and routes, for example by opening more LNG terminals; or by trying to start production of its own gas while curbing domestic consumption.

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Turecki sen o hubie. Polityka gazowa Ankary w czasie wojny

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Adam Michalski / Language(s): Polish

Natural gas plays a key role in Turkey’s economy and energy sector, with the country’s gas consumption growing in recent years. At the same time, Turkey is fully dependent on imports of this resource, including large quantities from Russia. However, for years it has been implementing a policy of diversification, which has brought tangible results. Along this, it has been expanding its import infrastructure to diversify its gas supply sources and routes, for example by opening more LNG terminals; or by trying to start production of its own gas while curbing domestic consumption.

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Niewypowiedziana wojna. Nowy etap konfliktu azerbejdżańsko-armeńskiego

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): Polish

More than two years after the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020, the situation in the conflict area remains highly unstable. Despite declarations of a de facto solution to the problem, intensive peace talks and Armenia signalling significant concessions on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the region is once again becoming a flashpoint, as manifested by Azerbaijan’s blockade of it since December. In the process, the conflict has escalated to an open dispute between the two states. Azerbaijan has been provoking Armenia with military attacks along the line of the non-delimited state border (along which there was fierce fighting last September), and suggesting it might forcibly take over transportation routes (the so-called Zangezur corridor) on its neighbour’s territory.

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The German perfect model… on credit

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska / Language(s): English

Germany is slowly recovering from the shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has defined the processes that will help it to revise what had once appeared to be the perfect model of policy making and doing business. So far, it has launched reforms in the areas in which these became necessary due to the new circumstances and in which Berlin has identified the need to radically change the assumptions of its former policy. If it succeeds in building the political and social consensus to carry out all of its plans, Germany will be facing a revolution. However, this revolution will likely be painful, so the temptation to return to old well-trodden paths will be strong.

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Niemiecki model idealny… na kredyt

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska / Language(s): Polish

Germany is slowly recovering from the shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has defined the processes that will help it to revise what had once appeared to be the perfect model of policy making and doing business. So far, it has launched reforms in the areas in which these became necessary due to the new circumstances and in which Berlin has identified the need to radically change the assumptions of its former policy. If it succeeds in building the political and social consensus to carry out all of its plans, Germany will be facing a revolution. However, this revolution will likely be painful, so the temptation to return to old well-trodden paths will be strong.

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One year of war. Russia’s imperial maximalism versus Ukraine’s resistance

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English

A war that almost nobody expected has been ongoing for a year now. Although reports suggesting that Russia may be preparing for war had emerged at least several months prior to 24 February 2022, there was no consensus among politicians and experts on how these reports should be interpreted. The most popular interpretation argued that we were witnessing Russia putting political and psychological pressure on the West, a bluff applied by Moscow to force the West to agree to a profound revision of the security order, to Russia’s advantage.

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Imperialny maksymalizm Rosji kontra upór Ukrainy

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): Polish

Od roku trwa wojna, której niemal nikt nie prognozował. Sygnały o rosyjskich przygotowaniach wojennych docierały co najmniej kilka miesięcy przed 24 lutego 2022 r., nie było jednak konsensusu politycznego i eksperckiego, jak je odczytywać. Najpopularniejsza interpretacja mówiła, że mamy do czynienia z presją polityczną i psychologiczną na Zachód, blefem zastosowanym w celu wymuszenia zgody na głęboką rewizję ładu bezpieczeństwa na korzyść Rosji.

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Closer to the West? Serbia’s foreign policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Bogdan Zawadewicz / Language(s): English

Over the past decade, Serbia’s foreign policy has been defined by the key dilemmas it faces over the shape of the state, including the issue of Kosovo, and the desire to balance between the main actors present in the Balkans: the West, Russia and China. The Serbian ruling class have been trying to play these actors off each other and balance their influences for their own benefit and also, in part, for the benefit of the state. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly reduced their room for manoeuvre. They have come under pressure from the West, which wants Belgrade to pursue a foreign policy in line with the Western course and to limit its ties with Moscow. Despite symbolic gestures of support for the Kremlin, the Serbian government seems to be increasingly aware that Russia is decreasingly capable of protecting Belgrade’s interests. Although in some areas Moscow may be replaced by Beijing, Serbia is set to step up efforts to build closer ties with Western structures.

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Bliżej Zachodu? Polityka zagraniczna Serbii po rosyjskiej inwazji na Ukrainę

Author(s): Bogdan Zawadewicz / Language(s): Polish

W ostatniej dekadzie politykę zagraniczną Belgradu determinowały kluczowe dylematy dotyczące kształtu państwa, m.in. kwestia Kosowa oraz dążenie do balansowania między głównymi aktorami obecnymi na Bałkanach – Zachodem, Rosją i Chinami. Serbskie elity starały się rozgrywać i równoważyć wpływy tych graczy w celu czerpania korzyści zarówno dla siebie, jak i – częściowo – dla państwa. Inwazja Rosji na Ukrainę istotnie zmniejsza ich pole manewru. Znalazły się one pod presją Zachodu, który chce, by Belgrad prowadził politykę zagraniczną zgodną z jego linią oraz ograniczał powiązania z Moskwą. Mimo symbolicznych gestów wsparcia wobec Kremla serbskie władze zdają się coraz bardziej świadome, że rosyjski potencjał ochrony ich interesów maleje. Choć w niektórych obszarach Moskwę może zastąpić Pekin, to ostatecznie przyspieszy i pogłębi się zbliżenie Serbii ze strukturami zachodnimi.

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New Ukraine: a breakthrough at great cost

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has completed the process of identity transformation and the shaping of a Ukrainian political nation. The year of war, accompanied by an all-encompassing derussification of public life, has accelerated Ukrainians’ turn towards their native history, culture, language and symbols, seen as part of the broader European context. Both of these trends began when the country gained independence in 1991 and intensified sharply after the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of the war in the Donbas in 2014, when the state clearly defined its politics of memory and launched an all-out effort to Ukrainianise public life. At that time, the identity changes were present in a section of society, but they are now consolidating the vast majority regardless of the region, age, and language of communication. The Ukrainian people are undergoing a mental decolonisation, rejecting the belief in Russia’s supremacy and in the cultural ties that bind the two nations, and they are instead adopting an attitude of superiority towards the former hegemon. However, they are paying a high price for this as Ukraine faces a demographic slump, economic ruin, people’s impoverishment and war trauma. At the same time, the heroic struggle for sovereignty finally made citizens stop treating Ukraine as a second-rate country. The frequent pre-war criticism has been replaced by pride and belief in the country’s high development potential.

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Nowa Ukraina – przełom świadomościowy za najwyższą cenę

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjska inwazja na Ukrainę domyka proces przemian tożsamościowych i kształtowania się ukraińskiego narodu politycznego. Rok wojny, któremu towarzyszyła kompleksowa derusyfikacja życia społecznego, przyspieszył zwrot Ukraińców ku rodzimym historii, kulturze, językowi i symbolom wpisanym w szerszy kontekst europejski. Oba te trendy postępowały od uzyskania niepodległości w 1991 r., a znacznie nasiliły się po aneksji Krymu i wybuchu wojny w Donbasie w 2014 r., gdy państwo jasno zdefiniowało politykę pamięci i zainicjowało całościową ukrainizację życia publicznego. Zmiany tożsamościowe objęły wówczas część społeczeństwa, obecnie zaś konsolidują ogromną jego większość bez względu na region, wiek i język komunikacji. Ukraińcy przechodzą mentalną dekolonizację, odrzucając przekonanie o przewadze Rosji oraz o łączących oba narody więzach kulturowych i przyjmując postawę wyższości wobec dawnego hegemona. Płacą za to jednak wysoką cenę w postaci wyrwy demograficznej, ruiny gospodarczej, zubożenia i traumy wojennej znacznego odsetka obywateli. Heroiczna walka o suwerenność sprawia zarazem, że Ukraina przestała być przez jej społeczeństwo traktowana jako kraj drugiej kategorii. Częsty przed wojną krytycyzm zastąpiły duma i wiara w wysoki potencjał rozwojowy własnego państwa.

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Wschodnia flanka NATO po roku wojny – mobilizacja różnych prędkości

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjska inwazja na Ukrainę stała się bezprecedensowym wyzwaniem dla bezpieczeństwa państw wschodniej flanki NATO. Państwa bałtyckie, wyszehradzkie i czarnomorskie położone są w sąsiedztwie walczącej Ukrainy bądź bezpośrednio graniczą z agresorem. Inwazja znacząco wzmocniła postrzeganie Rosji jako zagrożenia, choć tego rodzaju percepcja była w mniejszym lub większym stopniu obecna w regionie co najmniej od aneksji Krymu w 2014 r. Kraje te są orędownikami wzmocnienia obrony zbiorowej NATO i obecności sojuszniczej na wschodniej flance. Większość z nich znalazła się w czołówce państw udzielających wsparcia politycznego i wojskowego Ukrainie. Wyraźnie wzrosła w nich waga polityki obronnej i modernizacji sił zbrojnych.

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More independence, less fear. Moldova’s perspective on Russia after a year of war in Ukraine

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Moscow’s aggressive rhetoric and hostile behaviour towards the Moldovan government, in the context of its invasion of Ukraine, have led to a significant acceleration of the process of erosion of Russian influence in Moldova. Although this process has been ongoing for years, so far it has been very slow. The developments linked to the war have enabled (or actually forced) the pro-Western Moldovan government to take measures that the previous cabinets had shunned, partly out of fear of how the Kremlin might react. The most important changes have occurred in the energy sector – Russia’s significance as a supplier of gas has diminished and the influence of Russian media outlets has been reduced. Moreover, Chişinău has assumed a more assertive attitude towards Transnistria, which included adopting tougher legislation targeting the separatists and reducing the volume of gas supplied to the region. The government has also managed to launch a public debate on issues such as the legitimacy of Moldova’s membership of the CIS, the state of its armed forces and the neutrality of the Moldovan state, which is enshrined in the country’s constitution. Alongside this, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a collapse of Moldova’s trade relations with Russia and has accelerated the outflow of Moldovan economic migrants from Russia.

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Mniej strachu – więcej niezależności. Mołdawia wobec Rosji po roku wojny

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): Polish

Agresywna retoryka i nieprzyjazne działania Moskwy względem Mołdawii na tle inwazji na Ukrainę doprowadziły do znacznego przyspieszenia – obserwowanego od lat, ale dotychczas bardzo powolnego – procesu osłabiania rosyjskich wpływów w tym kraju. Kontekst wojenny umożliwił prozachodnim władzom w Kiszyniowie wykonanie posunięć (a niekiedy wręcz je do nich zmusił), przed którymi poprzednie gabinety powstrzymywały się m.in. w obawie przed reakcją Kremla. Kluczowe zmiany zaszły w energetyce – udało się ograniczyć znaczenie Rosji w zakresie dostaw gazu i zredukowano wpływ tamtejszych mediów. Kiszyniów stał się też asertywniejszy wobec Naddniestrza – m.in. zaostrzył ustawodawstwo wymierzone w separatystów czy obniżył wolumeny gazu dostarczanego do tego regionu. Rządzący zdołali także rozpocząć publiczną dyskusję m.in. na temat zasadności członkostwa Mołdawii w WNP, stanu sił zbrojnych czy – zapisanej w konstytucji – neutralności państwa. Równolegle inwazja na Ukrainę doprowadziła do załamania relacji handlowych z Rosją i przyspieszyła odpływ mołdawskich migrantów zarobkowych z tego kraju.

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