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GREY Working Paper No. 2: Undeclared Work in Croatia: a Baseline Assessment

Author(s): Josip Franic,Colin C. Williams / Language(s): English

This working paper is an output of the European Commission’s FP7 "Marie Curie Industry-Academia Partnerships and Pathways" (IAPP) project entitled "GREY - Out of the shadows: developing capacities and capabilities for tackling undeclared work in Bulgaria, Croatia and FYR Macedonia". Mr. Josip Franic and Pfof. Colin C. Williams, GREY-IAPP Sheffield University Management School, University of Sheffield elaborated the report in April 2014. The aim of this report is to evaluate the extent and nature of undeclared work in Croatia and the policy approaches and measures currently employed to tackle this sphere. The authors note that firms in agriculture and related industries are the most likely to recognise competition from unregistered or informal firms as a serious obstacle to their business. In addition, small and medium-sized firms are far more likely to identify the existence of the unregistered units in their sector than are large firms. Finally, domestic owned and non-exporting businesses more often witness the presence of unregistered firms and the constraints caused by them in comparison with exporters and firms in foreign ownership. A key problem is the weak coordination among ministries and various government departments when pursuing the fight against undeclared work. Each of them defines their own separate targets and this often results in an overlapping and/or awkward division of responsibilities. This raises a need for reorganisation of the existing institutional system in order to achieve better efficiency. One viable option is the establishment of a central coordination body, which would harmonise activities in this field. In that regard, one might argue whether a recent reform in the inspection system was indeed a move in a positive direction, or whether it will result in the deteriorated effectiveness of enforcement. A further problem is the weak social dialogue in Croatia in this context characterised by numerous disputes between the government and trade unions. As such, tripartite social dialogue currently has a limited role in tackling undeclared work, therefore representing a further area for the achievement of a significant improvement.

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ПОЛИТИКА И ПРИВАТИЗАЦИЯ. Трансформацията на собствеността в България през призмата на политическите борби

Author(s): Boyan V. Gyuzelev / Language(s): Bulgarian

Undoubtedly, the process of ownership transformation is central to economic reform. Without it, Bulgaria can not become a functioning market economy. Privatization (or restitution) is therefore a political process. Its successful outcome guarantees the future and stability of democracy in the country.Privatization, however, has become one of the fields of opposition between the political forces. The course of ownership transformation has been delayed, which has created the danger of it becoming an endless and fruitless discussion, giving fruit to political struggles, but leading to a deepening of the economic crisis.The fact that privatization, land re-establishment and restitution had to start in an unstable political environment, accompanied by economic recession and lack of interest on the part of foreign investors, created a dangerous tendency to defame them.In the context of a strong political confrontation, the interests of political forces are moving ahead with economic arguments. In such a situation of chaos and instability in institutions, state and municipal bureaucracies are more likely to hamper privatization rather than cooperate because they have no interest in losing the monopoly on property.

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Скритата икономика в България (изследване на бизнес-сектора), Декември 2002 г.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Between November 25 and December 16, 2002, Vitosha Research conducted a national representative survey of the business sector on "Hidden Economy in Bulgaria". The survey was attended by 530 companies across the country.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 08: Конкурентоспособност на българската икономика 2006

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Bulgaria’s position in the world oldest and most comprehensive annual report on the competitiveness the World Competitiveness Yearbook 2006 of IMD (International Institute for Management Development) was presented several days before the European Commission report on Bulgaria’s readiness for accession. With the partnership of the Center for the Study of Democracy this year Bulgaria was included for the first time in the report, issued since 1989. The report ranks and analyzes how 61 selected economies creates and sustain the competitiveness of their enterprises. It stands out among reputed international ratings with the predominance of more reliable statistical data over the qualitative (survey) data. The rating uses 312 indicators covering a broad spectrum of competitiveness, classified in four major groups: economic performance, business efficiency, infrastructure and government efficiency. The policy brief makes an overview of the report's main findings and recommendations with focus on the Bulgarian economic performance.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 63: VALUTARE LA VULNERABILITÀ ALL’ESTORSIONE ORGANIZZATA IN DETERMINATI SETTORI ECONOMICI E COMUNITÀ DI MIGRANTI

Author(s): / Language(s): Italian

Extortion racketeering has long been pointed out as the defining activity of organised crime. It has also been identified as one of the most effective tools used by organised crime in the accumulation of financial resources and the penetration of the legal economy. Although in recent years this crime has not been among the top listed organised crime threats in the strategic EU policy documents, it still remains ever present in European countries. The seriousness of the phenomenon has been recognised at the EU level and the crime has been listed in a number of EU legal acts in the field of police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 64: Скритата икономика в България: 2015 – 2016 г.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

In Bulgaria the high level of hidden economy undermines the economic development of the country and requires serious and persistent political attention. The unprecedented growth in the field of digitization of economic activities, the convergence between some of them, and the emergence of brand new services creates an opportunity for achieving a desirable environment, which may reduce the hidden cash flows and boost the economic development of the country. Comprehensive reforms focused on the functioning of the market mechanisms and administrative effectiveness are needed in order to promote the process of economic convergence within the European Union and limit the harmful effects of the hidden economy in Bulgaria.

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Scanning Macedonia’s performance under the European Commission’s Progress Report’s Chapter 21: A race with obstacles? – Part II

Author(s): Ana Stojilovska / Language(s): English

This policy report aims at presenting and clarifying Macedonia’s performance under chapter 21 in 2010 and at inspecting the quality and the sustainability of the progress achieved in order to define the future challenges and to offer the relevant institutions research based recommendations for further progress under the chapter. Having covered the TEN-T part of chapter 21 in a previous publication, this policy paper will cover only the TEN-E and the eTEN part of chapter 21.

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Kryzys w Turkmenistanie. Test dla polityki Chin w regionie

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): Polish

Kryzys walutowy w Turkmenistanie, wywołany załamaniem cen gazu, przerodził się w najpoważniejszy w historii państwa kryzys społeczny i polityczny. Rząd w Aszchabadzie przerzucił ciężar problemów gospodarczych na ludność, zawieszając wymienialność manata i likwidując w zeszłym roku rozbudowane przywileje socjalne. Drastyczne obniżenie poziomu życia turkmeńskiego społeczeństwa podkopało stabilność reżimu. Wyczerpywanie się rezerw walutowych Turkmenistanu stawia pod znakiem zapytania dalszy wzrost oparty na monumentalnych inwestycjach, będących głównym – obok zlikwidowanej polityki socjalnej – źródłem legitymizacji władzy. Obecna dynamika kryzysu zależna jest w pełni od Chin, które są niemal wyłącznym odbiorcą turkmeńskiego gazu (ponad 90% całości eksportu surowca), a jednocześnie głównym wierzycielem Aszchabadu. Konstrukcja chińsko-turkmeńskich kontraktów (m.in. związanie cen gazu z cenami ropy) prowadzi do drenażu turkmeńskich zasobów przy wyraźnie zmniejszonym napływie dewiz. Chiny mogą być postawione przed potrzebą stabilizacji gospodarczej Turkmenistanu, w przypadku braku działań ratunkowych, ryzykując rozpadem państwa. Większe zaangażowanie Chin mogłoby z kolei oznaczać rewizję chińsko-rosyjskiego modus vivendi w regionie. Moskwa może wykorzystać kryzys do odbudowy wpływów w Aszchabadzie, włączenia Turkmenistanu w obręb własnych projektów politycznej integracji regionu, w zamian oferując pomoc wojskową w ewentualnej stabilizacji reżimu, a także wznowienie współpracy gazowej.

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№67: Norwegian Energy Policy in the Changing EU Environment: What Poland Can Learn for Developing Its Shale Gas Industry

Author(s): Lidia Puka,Ole Gunnar Austvik,Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

Globally, many countries have become victims of the resource curse paradox and/or Dutch Disease after discovering and exploring hydrocarbon resources. The Norwegian experience, however, suggests that the impact of petroleum activities on the overall economy may increase over time, and not as a curse, but as a blessing. Due to good resource management, cost savings, and investment, Norway remains a model of sustainable development among resource rich countries, and, so far, a case for retaining strong government participation, control and supervision within the market regulations of the European Union. Although it is impossible to transpose the Norwegian model directly, EU countries that wish to develop an extractive sector, as Poland does, could learn from it, not least in elements such as private-public cooperation in a transparent institutional framework and strengthening of government competence, engagement, and control.

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№39: Solutions to Public Debt Crises in the EU: Seek Returns on That Investment (Views from Slovakia)

Author(s): Peter Goliaš,Eugen Jurzyca / Language(s): English

The purpose of providing financial assistance to indebted eurozone countries is to avoid uncontrolled bankruptcies that could lead to a breakdown of the euro area with severe negative consequences for all members of the EU. There is a high probability that the loans provided via the stability mechanisms will not be fully recovered. Nevertheless, the long-term benefits of those loans are expected to exceed the costs. Therefore, this form of financial assistance should be regarded as an investment that has its own rate of return, one that can be controlled for by insistence on adherence to certain rules of behaviour and diligent oversight.

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Germany’s Labour Market Opens to Non-EU Workers: Implications for Poland

Author(s): Katarzyna Michalska / Language(s): English

In March 2020, the new ”Skilled Immigration Act” for qualified professionals from non-EU countries will come into force in Germany. Polish employers are concerned that better employment conditions in that country will encourage Ukrainian economic migrants to leave Poland. However, only some of them will meet the criteria stipulated in the act. If Poland adopts a new labour law improving the procedures for employing foreigners, there likely will be no mass emigration of Ukrainians to Germany in the coming years.

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Otwarcie niemieckiego rynku pracy na pracowników spoza UE – konsekwencje dla Polski

Author(s): Katarzyna Michalska / Language(s): Polish

W marcu 2020 r. w Niemczech wejdzie w życie ustawa o imigracji wykwalifikowanej, skierowana do pracowników spoza państw UE. Polscy pracodawcy obawiają się, że lepsze warunki zatrudnienia zachęcą do wyjazdu z Polski ukraińskich migrantów zarobkowych. Jednak tylko niewielka część z nich będzie spełniać kryteria przewidziane w niemieckich przepisach. Jeśli dodatkowo w Polsce zostanie uchwalona ustawa o rynku pracy, która powinna usprawnić procedury zatrudniania cudzoziemców, w najbliższych latach nie dojdzie do masowej emigracji Ukraińców do Niemiec.

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Attempts at Reforming Egyptian Demographic Policy

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The population of Egypt, the EU’s second-most populous neighbour after Russia, will soon exceed 100 million. The fast pace of the population growth together with the country’s inefficient economy could spur new crises caused by rising unemployment and difficult access to drinking water and food resources, and by politics. The Egyptian government, in cooperation with the EU, U.S., and UN, launched programmes aimed at reducing the fertility rate. Limiting the pace of Egypt’s population growth should weaken factors inciting further destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa.

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Próby reformy polityki demograficznej Egiptu

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): Polish

Populacja Egiptu, najliczniejszego po Rosji sąsiada UE, wkrótce przekroczy 100 mln. W połączeniu z niesprawną gospodarką może to przyczynić się do wybuchu nowych kryzysów – na tle rosnącego bezrobocia, dostępu do wody i żywności oraz politycznych. W odpowiedzi na te wyzwania rząd, we współpracy z Unią Europejską, Stanami Zjednoczonymi i ONZ, podejmuje działania w celu zmniejszenia wskaźnika dzietności. Obniżenie tempa wzrostu populacji Egiptu pomoże ograniczyć dalszą destabilizację Bliskiego Wschodu i Afryki Północnej.

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RES Development: Implications for Security and Poland’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The dynamic growth of renewable energy sources (RES) and accompanying digitalisation of the electrical grid creates new challenges for Poland’s and the EU’s security. The most important include securing supplies of raw materials for RES (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines) and ensuring cybersecurity for the energy grid. The importance of these issues will only grow with the ambitions of authoritarian regimes to control the supply of raw materials and cyberthreats posed by these regimes and non-state actors.

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Rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii – implikacje dla bezpieczeństwa i polityki zagranicznej Polski

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Dynamiczny rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii (OZE) i towarzysząca mu cyfryzacja sieci elektroenergetycznych stanowią nowe wyzwania dla bezpieczeństwa Polski i UE. Do najważniejszych należą zagwarantowanie dostaw surowców niezbędnych do produkcji instalacji służących wytwarzaniu energii (paneli fotowoltaicznych, turbin wiatrowych) oraz zapewnienie cyberbezpieczeństwa sieci przesyłowych energii elektrycznej. Kwestie te będą coraz istotniejsze ze względu na ambicje państw autorytarnych dążących do przejęcia kontroli nad zasobami ww. surowców czy działania cyberprzestępcze, podejmowane zarówno przez te kraje, jak i podmioty pozapaństwowe.

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China’s Environmental Disaster: Social Problem and Business Opportunity

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China’s economic development model has led to significant environmental contamination. The scale of the damage endangers the life and health of China’s inhabitants. The authorities are aware that their lack of action in the past has undermined their credibility and harmed China’s image worldwide. In 2015, the Chinese government declared a “war on pollution” and signed up for commitments under the Paris climate agreement. Simultaneously, China aims to develop the green sector of its economy. Actions it’s taken so far include a reduction in smog in 2017, but a lasting improvement in the country’s environmental condition is slowed by the huge costs of it and the resistance of local authorities. China can be expected to be moderately engaged in the implementation of the Paris agreement.

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Katastrofa ekologiczna w Chinach: problem społeczny i szansa gospodarcza

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): Polish

Model rozwoju gospodarczego ChRL doprowadził do skażenia środowiska naturalnego. Szkody na taką skalę zagrażają życiu i zdrowiu Chińczyków. Władze zdały sobie sprawę, że brak reakcji podważa ich wiarygodność w kraju i szkodzi zewnętrznemu wizerunkowi Chin. Dlatego w 2015 r. ogłosiły politykę „walki ze smogiem” oraz przystąpiły do porozumienia paryskiego. Jednocześnie celem Chin jest rozwój „zielonego” sektora gospodarki. Podjęte działania zmniejszyły smog w 2017 r., ale przeszkodą do trwałej poprawy stanu środowiska są ogromne koszty, a także opór władz lokalnych. Chiny będą też umiarkowanie angażować się we wdrażanie porozumienia paryskiego.

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Russia’s Demographics: Is the Boat Sinking Again?

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

The record high outflow of capital from Russia in 2014 is the most obvious consequence of the Kremlin’s military intrusion into Ukraine. But it is not only investors who resent the regional security crisis and economic uncertainty. Preliminary data for 2014 and early 2015 show that Russian citizens are leaving the country in greater numbers, while Russia does not attract as many migrants as before. Shrinking human capital, coupled with a massive cash exodus will, if they continue for a long period, weaken the Russian economy and might shatter its power position in the post-Soviet neighbourhood.

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Demografia Rosji – znów tonący okręt?

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): Polish

Rekordowy odpływ kapitału z Rosji w 2014 r. jest najjaskrawszą konsekwencją rosyjskiej interwencji militarnej na Ukrainie. Jednak nie tylko inwestorów zniechęcają regionalny kryzys bezpieczeństwa i gospodarcza niepewność. Wstępne dane o roku 2014 i początku 2015 wskazują, że rosyjscy obywatele dużo liczniej opuszczają swój kraj, podczas gdy Rosja przyciąga mniej imigrantów niż wcześniej. Zmniejszanie się zasobów kapitału ludzkiego wraz z odpływem środków finansowych w dłuższym okresie mogą osłabić rosyjską gospodarkę i jej wpływy na obszarze postradzieckim.

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