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Dangerous Liaisons: The Alternative for Germany and Right-wing Extremism

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Until recently, links between the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and right-wing extremist organizations have not weakened the party’s record. Yet, after anti-Semitic and racist attacks, its image as a radical party is becoming an increasingly serious obstacle in attracting new voters and overcoming political isolation. Lack of prospects for participation in government and the fact that some of the grouping are under the surveillance of counter-intelligence may lead to a loss of votes and gradual marginalisation of the AfD.

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Niebezpieczne związki – Alternatywa dla Niemiec i prawicowy ekstremizm

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): Polish

Dotychczas powiązania członków Alternatywy dla Niemiec (AfD) z prawicowymi organizacjami ekstremistycznymi nie osłabiały jej notowań. Po atakach na tle antysemickim i rasistowskim wizerunek partii radykalnej staje się coraz poważniejszą przeszkodą w pozyskiwaniu nowych wyborców i przełamywaniu politycznej izolacji. Brak perspektyw na udział w rządzeniu i objęcie części ugrupowania obserwacją kontrwywiadu może doprowadzić do utraty głosów w kolejnych wyborach oraz stopniowej marginalizacji AfD.

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Countering Russian Disinformation in the European Union

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Russia runs disinformation campaigns against the EU using traditional media and the internet, including social media. Yet, the effectiveness of the fight against Russian disinformation by the Union and its Member States has so far been limited. These activities require strengthening at the international and national levels, as well as increasing public awareness of the use of media.

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Igre gladi: Hladni rat

Author(s): Ervin Hladnik Milharčič / Language(s): Serbian

Da li biste hteli još jedan rat na evropskom tlu? Dobro je počelo. Nakon tri meseca okupiranja administrativnih zgrada u Kijevu i drugim gradovima Ukrajine, grupe demonstranata upale su u nekoliko kasarni i zaplenile pet stotina komada vatrenog oružja. U Lavovu, čitav garnizon se predao i otvorio vrata oružarnice. Na prestoničkom Trgu nezavisnosti počeli su da pucaju.

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U Ukrajini počinje građanski rat

Author(s): Alexander Golts / Language(s): Serbian

Mislim da će stanovnici Ukrajine još dugo pamtiti sumorno jutro 19. februara 2014. Požari koji još traju u centru Kijeva, zgarišta od ognjenih barikada kojima su se opozicionari ograđivali od „Berkuta“, miris krvi… Bojim se da je to prvo jutro građanskog rata u Ukrajini. Posle dugog koprcanja, radi rešavanja višemesečnog problema koji ga muči, Janukovič je juče odlučio da primeni nasilnu varijantu. U svom obraćanju građanima, on je za povredu zakona optužio lidere opozicije i na njih svalio svu odgovornost za nasilje i haos koji su juče zavladali ukrajinskom prestonicom. Tokom noćnih pregovora s opozicijom, on je od njih zatražio da se praktično odreknu Majdana. U Kijevu je zatvoren metro, a specijalci su pokušali da zatvore i sve ulaze u Kijev. Pripadnici takozvane unutrašnje vojske, zajedno sa specijalcima, celu noć su pokušavali da sa Majdana rasteraju demonstrante. Odmah ću reći, bez naročitog uspeha. No zato je Dom sindikata, mesto gde je bio štab opozicije, potpuno izgoreo. Prema nekim izveštajima, požar se proširio i na susedne zgrade.

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Pomozi bože

Author(s): Dejan Ilić / Language(s): Serbian

Ne zna se gde sede neodgovornije osobe – u vrhu SPC-a ili u vrhu države. Mrtva trka u brutalnoj nesposobnosti da se razume i prihvati realnost. Ali, niti je to crkva, niti je ovo država. Kamen na kamenu tu nije ostao ni od vere ni od poretka. S jedne strane zatucani i za stvarnost i ljudske živote slepi popovi, s druge – zadrto nesposobni iza stvarnost i ljudske živote slepi politički čelnici. Na apsolutno idiotski zahtev SPC-a da se za vikend dozvoli liturgijsko okupljanje vernika, država odgovara apsolutno idiotskim produženjem zabrane kretanja za još jedan dan – sa 60 sati na 84 sata.

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Sudbina multilateralnog poretka

Author(s): Paul Mason / Language(s): Serbian

Otkad je počela pandemija mnogi kažu „Ovo je dobra prilika da se dogodi X“ – gde je X nešto što su oduvek priželjkivali. Ali ovo nije ta prilika. Dosad smo krizu izazvanu korona virusom uglavnom tumačili iz dva ugla, epidemiološkog i ekonomskog, i u oba slučaja slika je bila sumorna. Verujem da isto važi i za pogled iz perspektive geopolitike.

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Zaključavanje informacija

Author(s): Nemanja Nenadić / Language(s): Serbian

Zaključak Vlade (o informisanju stanovništva o stanju i posledicama zarazne bolesti COVID-19 izazvane virusom SARS-CoV-2),1 s razlogom je protumačen kao izraz namere da se kontroliše tok informacija između zdravstvenih ustanova, gradova i opština sa jedne i medija/građana s druge strane. Bilo da je Vlada stvarno nameravala da uvede cenzuru ili da je reč o nedovoljno promišljenom pokušaju da se suzbije širenje dezinformacija, činjenica je da se pitanja koja se tiču Ustava i zakona ne mogu uređivati kroz zaključke Vlade, čak ni u vanrednom stanju. Stoga,sve i da je neko prekršio zabrane iz ovog Zaključka, koji će posle samo dva dana „na molbu predsednika Republike“ biti ukinut, on zbog toga ne bi mogao da snosi štetne posledice.

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Strah (2)

Author(s): Ognjen Radonjić / Language(s): Serbian

Intervju koji je predsednik dao u nedelju je bio izuzetno zanimljiv. Naravno, uz obavezni sastav sa novinarkom koja je prvo pokušala da radi svoj posao, što je uvredilo predsednika, zbog čega je ona ustuknula i počela da ga tetoši, sve do kraja, gde je ona ne verujući svojim ušima pukla od smeha.

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Erdélyi magyarok a magyarországi és a romániai politikai térben

Author(s): Tamás Kiss,Gergő Barna / Language(s): Hungarian

Between 18 May and 8 June, 2013 the authors have collected data from a representative sample of 1,232 Hungarians from Transylvania with the purpose to examine the political behaviour of the aforementioned community within the political spaces of both Hungary and Romania. While closely related to a research project (entitled 'Ethnic parties, voting behaviour') carried out within the Romanian Institute for Research on National Minorities, the present research has extended its focus to Transylvanian Hungarians' voting behaviour outside Romania. This change of perspective has been necessary because on 26 May 2010 the Hungarian Parliament adopted the amendment to the 1993 Law on Hungarian citizenship by introducing the simplified naturalization procedure, thus enabling Hungarians from the neighbouring countries of Hungary to obtain Hungarian citizenship without residency. Moreover, the new Hungarian election law adopted in November 2011 allows Hungarian citizens without residency in Hungary to vote in the Hungarian Parliamentary elections (on candidates from national party lists). As a consequence, the political, or voting behaviour of Hungarians from Transylvania needs to be analyzed by taking into account this perspective as well.

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Koliko slobode?

Author(s): Heni Erceg / Language(s): Croatian

Zaigrale su se delije na valu ogromnog ljudskog straha od tekuće pandemije. I ne samo onaj tamo u Srbiji, predsjednik svega i svačega, Aleksandar Vučić, čiji je teror ponizio građane Srbije do mjere nepodnošljivosti, poput one da penzioneri, nakon što je mimo parlamenta uveo policijski sat, smiju izaći iz kuće samo nedjeljom i to od 4 sata ujutro po nekoliko sati. No, danas već mijenja strategiju i zaklinje se u provedbu uspješnog scenarija bogate iracionalne Južne Koreje koja je od prvog dana inzistirala na što većem broju testiranja i na taj način suzbila užas koji je bez ostatka zahvatio Evropu, čak i one države koje po bogatstvu ne zaostaju za Južnom Korejom. Ali nije Vučić jedini koji je bolni trenutak svjetske povijesti s nesagledivim posljedicama iskoristio za svoju sitničavu, diktatorsku promociju, nego je vrlo sličan scenarij uspostave policijske države, tek nešto uljuđeniji u vanjskoj manifestaciji, proveden i u Hrvatskoj.

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Evropa nespremna za recesiju posle pandemije

Author(s): Yanis Varoufakis / Language(s): Serbian

Ministri finansija evrozone okupljeni u Evrogrupi ne uspevaju da se dogovore o makroekonomski učinkovitom i koordinisanom fiskalnom odgovoru na snažan recesioni pritisak pandemije COVID-19. Bojimse da će jedini rezultat njihovih pregovora biti gromoglasna saopštenja i impresivne brojke kojima se skriva irelevantnost i nedovoljnost usaglašenih politika.

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Politička samoća

Author(s): Vladimir Veljković / Language(s): Serbian

Ostali smo sami sa Vučićem. On sa jedne i mi građani sa druge strane, bez obzira na to da li smo njegovi prinudni glasači ili nismo. Svima je sada definitivno zaseo za vrat. Mesec dana ranije dramio je zbog jedne emisije o njemu, a sada drami zbog nedovoljnog broja grobnih mesta. Epidemija korona virusa je tome sasvim slučajno doprinela. Pre nego što je počela oduzimati ljudske živote, oduzela je celokupan politički život. Politika je bila njena prva žrtva. Do epidemije održavala se nekako na respiratorima, ali je sada potpuno mrtva.

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Pandemija: strah, i vrlo malo nade

Author(s): Milutin Mitrović / Language(s): Serbian

„Strah je pasvord našeg vremena“, napisao je Džerard Padro (Gerard Padró i Miquel), profesor ekonomskih i političkih nauka sa Jejla, u svom eseju „Politika straha“ još 2007. godine. Imao je doduše u vidu autokratske režime koji se služe strahom da bi „izvlačili ogromnu ličnu korist od siromašnih“. Danas ovo važi i za sve ostale. U jednom kaišu stripa Čarli Braun, on mudruje: „Razvio sam sopstvenu filozofiju – plašiću se samo jednom dnevno“. Od dosetke do strašne stvarnosti mali je korak: italijanski sudija Đovani Falkone, koga je likvidirala mafija, kuražio se tvrdnjom da onaj ko se plaši umire svakodnevno, a ako se ne plaši samo jednom. Ovi citati su uvod u razmišljanje o erupciji straha izazvanog epidemijom korona virusa koja je u toku.

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Ograničenje ljudskih prava u vanrednom stanju

Author(s): Milan Filipović / Language(s): Serbian

Uredbom Vlade Republike Srbije zabranjena su sva javna okupljanja, sa izuzetkom onih od posebnog značaja za rad i funkcionisanje državnih organa i službi. Od preporuke da stariji od 65 godina ne izlaze na ulicu prošlo je manje od dva dana kada jeuvedena potpuna zabrana izlaska za ovu grupu građana. Istovremeno je uveden i „policijski čas“ od 8 uveče od 5 ujutru za sve uzraste. Vlada nije dovoljno obrazložila razloge i efekte uvođenja novih mera što je, sudeći po komentarima na društvenim mrežama, proizvelo kontra efekat kod starijih sugrađana koji se osećaju izopštenima i diskriminisanima.

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Stanje ili situacija, pitanje je sad

Author(s): Rodoljub Šabić / Language(s): Serbian

Je li korona virus „najsmešniji virus na svetu“ ili je virus „koji će nas ostaviti bez mnogih najdražih“? Da li žene ne treba da brinu, ne obolevaju, mogu slobodno ići u šoping u Milano ili je ta tvrdnja opasna besmislica? Je l’ deca ne obolevaju ili „praktično“ ne obolevaju? Zatvarati škole je bespotrebno ili neophodno? Ovih dana bukvalno smo zatrpani ovakvim i sličnim dilemama koje su bili i još uvek su dužni da otklone medicinski stručnjaci.

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Da li je pacifizam moguć samo u miru?

Author(s): Adriana Zaharijević / Language(s): Serbian

Rat u Ukrajini ušao je u treći mesec. Kraj mu se ne nazire i ne postaju jasniji ciljevi ruske invazije. U međuvremenu, Rusija je zapretila Britaniji proporcionalnim odgovorom ako nastavi s provociranjem Ukrajine da upotrebi zapadno oružje za napade na teritoriju Rusije. Nuklearna pretnja se pominje svako malo, ali se brzo i odbacuje uz nevericu da bi svet mogao otići tako daleko u svojoj ludosti. Na pitanje zašto da ne, nije li se već otišlo predaleko time što nuklearno oružje postoji kao sama osnova vrelog mira, nema mudrog odgovora.

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ROBOTROLLING 2/2021

Author(s): Rolf Fredheim / Language(s): English

In this edition of Robotrolling we track the most significant increase in inauthentic Russian-language social media activity we have observed since we began in 2017. While the level of bot activity remains much lower than four years ago, the uptick is concerning. The increased activity coincided with the spring and summer military exercise season, and the period running up to the Russian Federation’s Zapad exercises, scheduled for September 2021. While fake activity increased in the Russian-language space, we observed no increase in English-language activity, either from bots or from human-controlled accounts. In this edition of Robotrolling, we introduce the Global Database of Events Location and Tone (GDELT). This database of news articles helps map how the conversation about NATO in Poland and the Baltics is covered by news media, and serves as a contrast to the environment observed on Twitter and VK. This contrast reveals that in April 2021—as Russian troops mobilized along the Ukrainian border—inauthentic Russian accounts were also disproportionately active online. We round off the issue with a discussion of how AI can help us better understand the global news environment in near-real time, based on conversations with StratCom COE expert Gundars Bergmanis-Korāts and GDELT-founder Kalev Leetaru.

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Virtual Manipulation Brief: Russia's Struggle to Circumvent Sanctions and Communicate Its War Against Ukraine

Author(s): Rolf Fredheim,Martha Stolze / Language(s): English

In this first issue of the Virtual Manipulation Brief, we zoom in on the Russian language conversation, and how it changed as a result of the decision to invade Ukraine. Sanctions hindered the Kremlin’s messaging on Western platforms, while the focus on domestic audiences pulled many propagandists to Telegram, VKontakte, and RuTube. The number of Russian Telegram users has increased by two-thirds, while four in five users of Facebook and Instagram have left Meta’s platforms. The increase in users understates the importance of Telegram. It acts as a reliable hub, where pro-regime voices can post (almost) without fear of platform censorship. Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan’s social media posting patterns reveal how communication has adapted following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In response to sanctions, she, together with many journalists working for RT and Sputnik, moved to posting through Telegram. Telegram posts are automatically cross-posted to her Western platforms, meaning the messaging continues to flow at little or no extra effort. This method has the added benefit of evading attempts by Twitter to prevent the amplification of RT content. Such use of automation means the Kremlin’s messaging will not disappear on Western platforms, even when domestic audiences are the primary focus. The comparison of Russian-language messaging about NATO on VKontakte and Twitter shows how this combination of push and pull factors has dramatically altered the Kremlin’s reach. We estimate that the relative reach of pro-Kremlin messaging on VKontakte in March 2022 was a hundred times more than normal, compared to Twitter. The Virtual Manipulation Brief builds on our Robotrolling reports, tracking how Russian bots and trolls manipulate the flow of information online. It expands the area of focus beyond the conversation about NATO to Russia’s war against Ukraine. And it will look beyond Twitter and VKontakte to track how antagonists use other social media platforms to disinform the public. In this issue, we start by examining how social media usage in Russia changed since February. A comparison of heavily amplified content about NATO on Twitter and VKontakte exposes the Kremlin’s waning ability to control conversations on Western platforms. Finally, we show how the Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan moved her communication to Telegram to evade sanctions directed at RT.

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The Western Balkans: A Chance for the EU A Liberal Perspective on the Accession Process

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Taking a look at the map it is clear that the countries of the Western Balkans (in this paper Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia) are a geopolitically crucial part of Europe that is still missing from the European Union. For political, economic and infrastructural reasons, as well as for the European identity that the Union shares with the Western Balkans, it is vital to reanimate the spirit of the accession process in the region and in the European member states. The EU accession process needs adaptations and improvements to provide more clarity, support and realistic perspectives for the aspiring members. The perspective of the Western Balkans states on the further development of the accession process is comparatively under-represented in the day-to-day debate on EU enlargement. Therefore, representatives of five liberal parties who are active in the above-mentioned states have compiled this short paper on their opinion on possible adjustments in the accession process speaking from their own experience as policy makers.

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