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NATO is preparing new defence plans with the potential of having available the scarcest military resources ever. Although the Alliance is attempting to create leaner, better equipped deployable forces, it is losing capabilities crucial for both projecting power and territorial defence. Since NATO is determined to adapt to new threats, planning teams may be forced to further de-emphasise assets needed for the credibility of Article 5.
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The aerospace and defence industries are on the brink of a major shake-up. The aircraft producers will ave to meet booming demand for civilian planes, while defence companies face slashed military budgets and different military priorities. Both sectors of the industry will need a serious restructuring to adapt to the changing market, with consolidations and take-overs constituting a major trend. Their consequences will be felt in Central and Eastern Europe, with Poland, as the biggest defence market in the region, at the forefront.
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Critics of current Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, including President Mikheil Saakashvili and his opposition United National Movement party, claim that the new Georgian government is undermining Georgia’s stable Euro-Atlantic course in its foreign policies. They suggest the prime minister’s inclination is to change the country’s policies from pro-Western to pro-Russian. The other element of their criticism towards Ivanishvili is that he is attempting to withdraw from the path of democratic reforms. The authorities reject these accusations but don’t deny that they seek to radically modify the policies of their predecessors. These changes include not only domestic but also foreign policies. Although the country’s commitment to the goals of integration with the EU and NATO is still backed by the new government, some statements and decisions by the prime minister suggest his will to reinvent the approach towards his Western partners. Also, his rhetoric concerning Georgia’s Caucasus neighbours may suggest some significant modifications in Georgia’s regional relationships. This paper analyzes the probability of a “paradigm shift” in Georgia’s foreign policy towards the EU, NATO, Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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The stakes in the Arctic are high, but only cooperation will unlock the full potential of the region. The peaceful and secure Arctic can become an attractive transport corridor and energy provider. Yet, a lack of trust and transparency could easily lead to tensions and a militarisation of the region, making it less attractive for investments. To avoid such a scenario, Russia and NATO should use existing forms of cooperation and extend them to the Arctic.
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NATO maintains its dedication to its “open door policy,” and the Western Balkans effectively constitute the only potential enlargement area for the Alliance in the near future. Three Western Balkan countries are official membership candidates but their NATO bids suffer from a string of problems which have already delayed and could potentially also derail their Alliance prospects. Currently, the main tasks of Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina are to construct a positive political discourse related to their Euro-Atlantic prospects and to persevere with their NATO ambitions. Such a feat, however, will not be achieved without completion of Alliance related “homework.”
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Protests that began over the re-development of Gezi Park in Istanbul and spread throughout the country mark a turning point not just in Turkey’s domestic policy but in its foreign policy, too. The protestors demand a pluralistic democracy, rule of law, secularism, decentralisation of power from party elites, greater transparency and non-interference in private life. The EU, which increasingly looks on Turkey as a key regional partner, has an interest in reining in certain aspects of its domestic and foreign policies that seem to have been driven by the ideology of the governing AKP party.
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A review of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) has concluded that chemical weapons disarmament is on track. However, the information about the alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria has added a new sense of urgency to chemical weapons disarmament. It has proven that a global ban on this lethal arms category cannot be achieved without making the CWC a truly universal treaty. At the same time, the Review Conference recognised new challenges associated with the rapid growth of the chemical industry worldwide. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons will have to find a golden mean to ensure implementation of the Convention without hampering the peaceful uses of chemicals.
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Just before another anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Al Qaeda (AQ) turned 25. Although after more than a decade of the war on terrorism the so called Al Qaeda Central is far from thriving operationally, it still advises and inspires jihadists around the world. Moreover, in the aftermath of the Arab Spring AQ Central affiliates and allies have re-constituted themselves and are growing in various parts of Northern Africa and the Middle East. Nonetheless, de-centralisation of the world’s counter-terrorism effort, with the focus not on AQ Central but on its “subordinates,” may in the longer term lead to a serious disruption of the totality of the organisation, already riddled with internal contradictions.
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In light of the current situation in Syria, and calls to hold to account those responsible for the atrocities allegedly committed during the conflict, a group of members of the American Congress suggested that the Security Council should create an ad hoc tribunal for Syria. A Blue Ribbon Panel of international criminal law experts presented a draft Statute for a Syrian Extraordinary Tribunal to Prosecute Atrocity Crimes, while some of the Security Council members suggested referring the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court. Issues pertaining to establishing justice and restoring the rule of law in Syria will certainly be on the agenda for future peace talks. The question of working out a transitional justice strategy for the country is inevitable. Whether such a strategy should include a judicial accountability mechanism will certainly be considered.
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With nearly all of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe considering construction of new nuclear plants, either to add to existing units or for the first time, it can be instructive to take stock of where they started following 1989, where they are now, and what lies ahead. Most of the countries benefited from nuclear safety-related assistance in the past. Through their membership in the EU and IAEA they also have access to the tools and institutional procedures that can be useful in assessing their nuclear programmes from a nuclear safety point of view. Poland, starting from scratch with a new nuclear build, may benefit from extensive external experience.
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Similar to the situation before the Arab Awakening, state control of civil associations in Egypt remains intact. Correspondingly, foreign funding for NGOs is still a controversial, selective and sensitive topic. Despite the objections of civil society and the international community, a new draft law on NGOs presented in September 2013 will most likely maintain the idea of state oversight of civil society organisations. The European Union, and Poland itself, should constantly monitor the status of the new draft law and actively encourage the authorities to comply with international standards. Despite difficulties with delivering the aid, the EU should stick to its values while supporting Egypt’s transition and continue to provide aid to local NGOs.
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December’s European Council Summit for heads of state or government has been tasked to deliberate European defence industry issues based on proposals provided by the European Commission. A divergence of interests expressed by interlocutors representing Member States, national defence industries and European institutions could result in heated political debate. The ability to accommodate the interests of Central Eastern Europe and Poland in particular in this process is not yet certain, especially as the EU’s ambitious plans for strengthening the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) are discordant with the current level playing field across Europe.
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Ever since previous North Korean leader Kim Jong-il passed away in December 2011, concerns about the new North Korean regime have been growing. Although the international community has worried mainly about the country’s foreign policy, especially nuclear and missile threats, recent news about a purge in the North Korean leadership has brought to the fore the question of the regime’s internal stability. Kim Jong-un has been steadily building a new system of governance, giving more power to the Korean Workers' Party apparatus at the expense of the armed forces. He has also shown interest in boosting North Korea’s economy. In foreign and security policy, however, in the short term, North Korea is likely to continue on its previous uncompromising course.
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In the context of the Ukraine crisis, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Romania have called for significant strengthening of NATO’s deterrence and defence policy and for permanent deployments of Allied troops in the region. This position is, however, not shared by the rest of the Central and Eastern European NATO members. Similar to Western European countries, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia do not feel as threatened by Russia’s actions and do not support moves that could damage their political and economic relations with Moscow. Fundamental differences among the current positions of the regional Allies indicate a profound divide between Central and Eastern European NATO members.
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The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is the oldest socio-political movement active in Egypt. Its members and structures are now undergoing one of the most severe crackdowns in its history, at the hands of an Egyptian government that constituted itself in the aftermath of a popular revolt followed by a coup against a short period of MB rule in 2013. The MB, however, although dispersed and fragmented, is still not defeated, and faces options related to its future political trajectory. This paper discusses these options and concludes that the MB is most likely to ready itself for a “long struggle” scenario that would amount to waiting out the period of repression and reconstituting itself on a bottom-up basis.
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The conflict in Ukraine continues to attract global attention. Moreover, foreigners are also involved in actual combat in the eastern part of the country. Russians, be they soldiers or volunteers, are the dominant foreign group in the war zone. Others, mostly Europeans, constitute neither “NATO’s foreign legion” nor the “Donbass international brigades,” as their numbers likely do not exceed 300 on either side of the conflict. Interestingly enough, many of these European foreign fighters share common ideological roots, i.e., anti-Americanism, anti-liberalism, extreme nationalism, fascination with authoritarianism, rejection of European integration, but these do not, however, stop them from taking opposing sides in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They, as a group or as lone individuals, might constitute a threat to European security and must be closely monitored.
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Russia’s use of history as a political weapon may have long term negative consequences. Themanipulated narrative will be difficult to reverse and, could lead to an even more confrontationalattitude towards immediate neighbours and the West. Western countries cannot remain passive. Tocounter Russian historical propaganda, they will have to adopt and effectively use the narrative basedon truth and common values.
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With the decision to select Patriot as its next medium-range air and missile defence system, Poland is launching a programme considered the most important one out of the $35 billion Armed Forces Technical Modernisation Plan for the years 2013–2022. The sheer value of the contract ($4–6 bln), its strategic and operational significance, and the technologies involved, are all enough to make it a hot topic in popular debates. But this programme is special also because it involves a U.S. contractor, which will be responsible for providing key technologies. While Poland has long been gravitating towards closer defence political ties with the United States, it has also been particularly anxious with regards to defence cooperation with Washington, even despite the fact that the U.S. became the top importer of Polish defence materiel. To make the most out of the AMD selection, and any other possible programmes that may be won by a U.S. contractor, Poland should drop unrealistic or simply false assumptions regarding defence industrial cooperation with the U.S. and push the envelope of collaboration, wherever it is possible, while limiting its ambitions where they are exaggerated.
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While actively contributing to NATO exercises and operations that confirm Turkey’s commitmentto the Alliance, Ankara has also actively avoided cooperating with the Western political andeconomic efforts to curb Russian aggression in Ukraine. Turkey’s low-level involvement, shaped bysecurity concerns, economic needs, yet at the same time its consolidating dependence on Moscow,and its optimistic opportunism, increasingly raise concerns about possible prospects of a Turkish pivotaway from the Euro-Atlantic community. But even while distancing itself from NATO, it may be inTurkey’s interests to rebalance its policy by supporting the stability of Ukraine and closer cooperationwith the EU.
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The annexation of Crimea has been a propaganda gain for the Kremlin, helping to augment supportfor the ruling elites. However, the protests of minorities opposing the annexation—Crimean Tatars andUkrainians—has prompted Russians to begin harsh repressions. On May 18, the Crimean Tatarscommemorate the anniversary of the Stalinist deportation of their nation in 1944, which led to massdeaths among the deported population. Although the Crimean Tatars are a relatively small minority atthe peninsula, they are politically well organised and will not accept the Kremlin’s praise of the Soviet(including Stalinist) era, or the current authoritarian system based on neo-imperial and neo-Sovietideology.
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