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Member States Seek to Unmask Russian Espionage in the EU

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Russian intelligence services are actively developing their networks of spies in the EU. While Member States are trying to counteract this and are undertaking coordinated action, many of them have limited operational capacities. Their cooperation at the EU level is hampered by differences in threat perceptions and a lack of mutual trust. With the aim of developing common competences, EU diplomacy can inform Member State societies about the growing scale of espionage threats by publishing regular reports on this subject.

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Moldova Faces Down an Energy Crisis and Protests

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Western support has helped Moldova through a deep energy crisis. The crisis, manufactured by Russia by limiting gas supplies in winter, violating a contract, is part of an attempt to persuade the Moldovan public to join protests organised by the pro-Russian Şor Party. It is in Poland’s interests to ensure further support from the European Union for Moldova, as it would align with Moldovans' determination for a pro-European transformation.

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The Dispute over Nord Stream 2 after the Navalny Poisoning

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The assassination attempt on Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has sparked a heated debate within the EU on the rationale behind Nord Stream 2 (NS2) and the political implications of its construction. Despite the growing criticism (e.g., in Germany, a key partner of the project), it is almost certain that the German leaders will maintain their support for the 95%-completed pipeline. Therefore, U.S. sanctions remain the main threat to the project.

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The Growing Problem of Disinformation in Latin America

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

In the last few years, Latin America has seen a surge in disinformation, used as a tool in an internal political rivalry and influencing the public debate. This process is creating favourable conditions for Russian, Chinese, and Iranian state media - all gradually increasing their reach in the region - which use manipulation of information, for example, to discredit democratic states, especially the U.S., but also EU members. The growing scale of disinformation threatens democracy in Latin America. The EU could consider expanding its StratCom analysis of disinformation campaigns to monitor foreign state media content in the region.

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Anything but Lockdown: Germany in the Face of the Second Wave of the Pandemic

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

A rapid increase in the number of infections has prompted federal and provincial authorities in Germany to introduce new restrictions. They are designed to prevent local rates from exceeding 50 infections per 100,000 residents. The effectiveness of these actions will be of key importance for the condition of the economy. It will also affect the final balance sheet of the grand coalition rule and the course of next year’s election campaign to the Bundestag.

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NATO in the Face of Climate Change: Expectations and Opportunities

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Climate change exacerbates security threats to NATO states such as natural disasters, irregular migration, and local conflicts. It is also increasingly perceived by Alliance publics as one of the biggest civilisational challenges. Therefore, NATO’s commitment to combating the causes and effects of climate change will be an important element of strengthening public support for the Alliance and its political cohesion.

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Second Wave of COVID-19 in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israel was among the states that managed to mitigate the first wave of COVID-19. However, inconsistent actions in lifting the restrictions and a decline in social discipline have led to a sharp increase in morbidity. That forced Israel to be first country in the world to introduce a second lockdown, which is now being lifted. The political consequences of the second wave are a drop in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and increased tensions within the coalition, both of which enhance the chances of another cabinet crisis, including an early elections scenario.

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Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Programme: International Implications

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme aims to help it achieve long-term economic goals and strengthen its international position. It is associated with many challenges, and furthermore it has sparked controversy, fuelled by the declarations of Saudi leaders that they could acquire a nuclear weapon. Additionally, the Saudi’s civilian nuclear programme could be used by its rival, Iran, to justify a more confrontational policy.

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Donbas: Mired in Crises

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has caused mass migration of people from areas in the war zone. The people remaining in the territories of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia - the so-called People’s Republics - require humanitarian aid. The COVID-19 pandemic has deepened the isolation of the occupied territories from the rest of Ukraine. Given the Russians and separatist authorities’ various stances, the situation in Donbas will deteriorate further.

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The Military Dimension of the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Azerbaijan’s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) ended with the signing on 9 November of a truce with Armenia. The effectiveness of the offensive resulted from the large-scale use of combat drones, which significantly supported Special Forces. The defeat of the Armenian forces came from errors in defence, the disproportionate weaponry used by Azerbaijan, the lack of adequate electronic warfare systems, and an insufficient counterintelligence shield.

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Prospects for Unification Talks in Cyprus

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

At the beginning of November, Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders met for the first time after the presidential election in the de facto state of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Politicians have declared their willingness to return to the reunification talks, but a compromise is unlikely. As a consequence, the new president of the TRNC, supported by Turkey, will strive to solve the Cyprus problem by creating two independent states. This poses a serious challenge to the European Union, which advocates the unification of Cyprus as a federal state.

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China’s Preparations for the Second Wave of COVID-19

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

A very low increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections has been recorded for many months in China. However, local outbreaks occur regularly and the Chinese authorities expect the number to rise towards the end of the year. The authorities have begun limiting the entry of foreigners to China and are speeding up the completion of work on a vaccine. China is taking advantage of the relatively stable situation to increase its influence in Central Europe, Asia, and Latin America at the expense of the U.S. and the EU. As a result, the scope for Union cooperation with China to combat the pandemic remains limited.

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Russia’s Use of Chemical Weapons: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The report by the expert group on NATO reform, published in early December, emphasises the need to strengthen the defence of NATO member states and troops against chemical weapons. The use of the Novichok substance in the attempted murder of Russian oppositionist Alexei Navalny confirmed that Russia has this weapon of mass destruction prohibited by treaty.

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Navalny’s Significance in Russian Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The attempt to poison Russian oppositionist Alexei Navalny exacerbated relations between Western countries and Russia and led to increased recognition and sympathy towards him among Russians. For medical reasons, Navalny will remain abroad for the next few months; however, he has declared his intention to return to Russia to prepare the political base for elections to the State Duma, which will take place in September 2021. The significance of Navalny in internal Russian politics will increase, but it will not threaten the position of President Vladimir Putin.

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Return to Multilateralism: The Biden Administration and the UN System

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Unlike the incumbent U.S. president, Donald Trump, his successor, Joe Biden, looks much more favourably on international organisations, including the United Nations and its agencies. Biden’s assumption of office in January creates an opportunity for the U.S. to re-engage in multilateral efforts such as the fight against climate change or international cooperation on public health issues. This may entail a return of the U.S. to agreements and organisations it withdrew from during Trump’s term. From the perspective of Poland, which strongly supports the UN and multilateral cooperation, it is a favourable situation that opens up new fields for cooperation.

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U.S.-Ukraine Relations after Biden’s Victory

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Joe Biden’s election as president of the United States may result in an increase in American engagement in Ukraine. The president-elect favours deterring Russia in Eastern Europe. To this end, the U.S. may increase the supply of military equipment to Ukraine and engage in a new format of negotiations on the Donbas conflict. At the same time, Biden will conduct a policy of conditionality towards Ukraine, making support dependent on combating corruption and money laundering.

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Joint Crisis-Response: Towards a European Health Union

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The European Commission (EC) presented a package of legislative proposals initiating the creation of a European Health Union. The proposals seek to strengthen crisis management in the face of cross-border health threats, including institutional reforms in the area of health. They do not prejudice the competences of the Member States as defined in the Treaties but are an incentive for closer cooperation in the field of health at the EU level. In the long run, this may pave the way for a revision of the competences of the EU and states in health policy.

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African Union, United Nations, and the Crisis in Ethiopia

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Ethiopia’s military offensive in Tigray achieved the central government’s primary goal of regaining control over state territory. However, the Ethiopian authorities has not proposed a viable political solution, which heralds a long-lasting guerrilla conflict. Their rejection of African Union (AU) mediation means there is a need for greater international effort - including by Europe - at stabilisation.

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Significance of Immigration for the Economies of Gulf Cooperation Council States

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

To limit international criticism of the living conditions of immigrants, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have lifted some restrictions regarding leaving the country or changing job without the consent of the employer. Lifting restrictions on immigrants in the Persian Gulf is part of efforts to reduce the role of the state in the labour markets. The changes are to contribute to combating unemployment among citizens, and thus contribute to maintaining stability in the region.

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№122: Between Crisis and Cooperation: UK-France Relations after Brexit

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Relations between the UK and France have remained tense since the announcement of the decision to hold the British referendum on EU membership in 2015. The conclusion of the EUUK Trade and Cooperation Agreement of December 2020 did not improve them, but the consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine have highlighted the need for cooperation between the two countries. Despite conciliatory gestures from both sides, relations have remained largely held hostage by internal policies. This is particularly evident in three areas: the regulation of the UK border on the island of Ireland, the issue of mass crossings of migrants across the English Channel to Britain, and the rules of participation of the UK in selected EU programmes. The first summit of the two countries since 2018, scheduled in Paris on 10 March, is intended to improve bilateral relations.

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