Male države u svetu regiona i izazovi multipolarizacije međunarodnih odnosa početkom 21. veka

Author(s): Marko Kovačević / Language(s): Serbian Publication Year: 0

In academic discussions and political dicourse on multipolarity at the beginning of the 21st century, great and emerging powers are perceived as major subjects of change, as well as the users of a transorming regionalized international system of states. On the other hand, small states have been sidelined in considering of the initial phase of the process of redistribution of economic power and the effects that the resulting political status-seeking may have in an altered international system. By dominantly focusing on structural effects of power distribution, IR research fails to provide for a more nuanced understanding of state agency and dynamics that is constituted by many, more or less important, ‘pawns of international politics’ or able Lilliputians − with their positions and roles in the processes of globalization and internationalization under different political, economic and security regionalisms. Drawing from the literatures on theories of IR, small states and regional security, this paper proceeds in two directions. Firstly, by considering various meanings of multipolarity – from its materiality, to its ideational and discoursive structure – it is possible to position states vis-a-vis what meaning of this concept is dominant in their political discourses. Secondly, in the context of a wider European regionalism, and post-Yugoslav and Caucasus regions more specifically, dimensions and characters of the relations of China and Russia with the small states in the two regions are explored. On the example of Serbia and Azerbaijan and shaping of their foreign policies in relations with the European Union, Russia, and China, an assessmnet of the extent and constraints of the agency of small states in international context is provided.

Između "zabijanja noža u leđa" i "nacionalne katastrofe": Prvi svetski rat kao determinanta spoljne politike Srbije prema Bugarskoj

Author(s): Milan Krstić / Language(s): Serbian Publication Year: 0

This paper addresses the legacy of the First World War as a factor which determines foreign policy of the Republic of Serbia towards the Republic of Bulgaria. Findings of our analysis are showing that there are various material and non-material aspect of the First World War legacy, which are influencing Serbia’s foreign policy towards Bulgaria. As material determinants this paper extracts: a) Inter-state boundary; b) Bulgarian national minority. Non-material determinants addressed in this paper are: a) Serbian “stab in the back” perception; b) Bulgarian “Second national catastrophe” perception; c) Legacy of Bulgarian war crimes in south and east Serbia. This paper as well compares and categorizes the influence of the mentioned aspects on contemporary Serbian foreign policy towards Bulgaria.

Serbian-Russian Historical Analogies

Author(s): Latinka Perović / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Russia's Soft Power Expands

Author(s): Sonja Biserko,Seška Stanojlović / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Belgrade and Kiev between Brussels and Moscow

Author(s): Boris Varga / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Using a comparative analysis of media and interviews, the author investigates the geopolitical position of Belgrade and Kiev in Europe, whereby the relations between the EU and Russia under conditions of Ukrainian crisis have fallen almost to the Cold War level. The research is focused on Serbia and its foreign policy, and the paper is divided into five chapters: (1) The Ukrainian Crisis and Russia, (2) The Ukrainian Crisis and Serbia, (3) Serbia Between the European Union and the Eurasian Union, (4) Conclusions and (5) Recommendations. The research is concerned with the course of events in Europe after the Ukrainian crisis, leading to the division into two political and economic blocs – the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union – and their influence on the region of countries in transition, including Serbia and Ukraine. The author concludes that Belgrade and Kiev must be more resolute in implementing their refors and integrating into Euro-Atlantic structures if they do not wish to remain isolated or left to the influence of the growing power of the authoritarian states like Russia and China. This can also happen if Brussels ends its EU integration programmes for transition countries

More Politics than Business

Author(s): Dimitrije Boarov / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper deals with economic relations between Serbia and Russia in the early 21st century in the context of the “European path“ designated by Serbian politics and traditional “political friendship“ between Serbian and Russian peoples on the Slavic and Orthodox basis. The main hypothesis is that, in essence, economic relations between Russia and Serbia are of marginal significance not only for the Russian Federation, but also for the Republic of Serbia, and that they provide almost no basis for the expansion of cooperation between the two countries or, more precisely, do not offer any realistic perspective in which Serbia’s economic cooperation with Russia would be an alternative to its inclusion in the European Union.

Utjecaj članstva u Europskoj uniji na politiku Republike Hrvatske prema Zapadnom Balkanu

Author(s): Siniša Tatalović / Language(s): Croatian Publication Year: 0

The Power of the European Union in the International Relations

Author(s): Marjan Gjurovski,Goran Ilik / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Bosna i Hercegovina i međnarodni sistem u kontekstu 20-godišnjice Dejtonskog sporazuma

Author(s): Dejan Jović / Language(s): Croatian Publication Year: 0

Twenty years after the Dayton Peace Agreement peace has been preserved in Bosnia and Herzegovina, although there is a strong feeling of discontent with the internal structure established in Dayton. This paper explains why Dayton Agreement constructed Bosnia and Herzegovina as a state with absolute external, but considerably limited internal sovereignty. The limitation of internal sovereignty is a consequence of the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina did not manage to preserve its stability during the dissolution of Yugoslavia (1991–1992) and consequently ended in a war (1992–1995) threathening regional and international security. This war challenged the establishment of the unilateral order, therefore the United States of America had to intervene in order to save its hegemonic status. Bosnia and Herzegovina was only to some degree constructed as a state – without full internal sovereignty. It was constructed also as a framework within which an international intervention is necessary in order to prevent a renewal of hostilities. Therefore, even 20 years after 1995, survival and structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina are highly dependent on the character of international system and the continuity of hegemonic position of the United States of America in the Balkans. The paper analyses options which Bosnia and Herzegovina would have if international system changes. Reasons for which major internal changes are impossible are also analysed. Bosnia and Herzegovina lacks sufficient consensus between main domestic actors, while the chances for a construction of common identity (Bosnian-Herzegovinian Us) are small due to essential weakness of the concept of Other in this case. Furthermore, prospects for more significant changes – even those which would lead to greater stability or integration – remain limited because Bosnia and Herzegovina was not meant to be a state with internal sovereignty.

Bosna i Hercegovina na savremenom geopolitičkom razmeđu: Tri unutrašnja viđenja

Author(s): Dragan Đukanović / Language(s): Serbian Publication Year: 0

The author analyzes the current political developments in Bosnia– Herzegovina, as well as different views on the future constitution of the country that have the local (ethno) national elites of Bosniaks, croats and Serbs. In this sense, the author states that there are certain indications that the announced reform of the constitutional system of one of Bosnian entities – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina carried out so as to form a “mega–cantons“. That will actually realized by the domination of ethnic principle and would be completed the same process initiated by the Dayton Peace Accords (1995). Special emphasis in this analysis, the author puts the external influence of the European Union, the Russian Federation and Turkey to Bosnian political leaders. In this sense, he nevertheless concludes that “European path“ of Bosnia–Herzegovina will be accelerating, but also that Turkey and Russia will try to preserve strengthened impact in the region of the Western Balkans.

Western Balkans: EU enlargement trough the 'Little Bang'

Author(s): Denis Hadžović,Marija Vishinova / Language(s): English

Although the Western Balkan countries followed a similar historical path under socialism, replaced by an exhausting period of political and economic transition, they are not equally prepared to be members of the European Union. With the divisions of the countries among the frontrunners and lagers, as repeated at the Sofia Summit, the process of EU enlargement will result with many fierce consequences and will lead to additional years of isolation and decades of strained relations. On the Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Kosovo road towards EU integration precedes deep and complex constitutional settlement, in which creation EU played one of the major roles. Even though the regatta principle is a current mechanism on which each of the countries is assessed on its process of integration, it seems that a common WB6 entrance in the EU is the most feasible scenario. In that way, for a more prosperous and unified Western Balkans and for a secure and finally completed European Union, Catch-all, or a Little Bang Approach is the best solution for the stakeholders.

PREUGOVOR ALARM: REPORT ON PROGRESS OF SERBIA IN CHAPTERS 23 AND 24 (September 2019)

Author(s): Authors Various / Language(s): English

This report contains the prEUgovor coalition’s assessment of the political criteria for the EU accession process and the fulfilment of criteria for selected policy areas from Chapters 23 and 24 for the period April 2019 – September 2019. Key findings indicate that the tendency of deterioration continues in most fields. The Government continues to consider only formal criteria, while in substance its primal concern is that the opposition does not boycott the elections, as that would send a bad message about the state of democracy in the country. Accordingly, the functioning of institutions, the Rule of Law, and the building of social consensus are not priorities that affect the Government’s understanding of European integration. The government is struggling not only to deliver what it had promised; formal commitments, benchmarks, as well as the adoption and extension of specific strategies and action plans are also inadequate and insufficient. The fight against corruption is characterised by the absence of a strategic framework and lack of political will and effective monitoring. Regulatory bodies responsible for control remain inactive and are not provided with sufficient support. Implementation of the law is a growing problem in all fields. The election process is also highly controversial. The ruling party continues to misuse state resources and offices for its propaganda and electoral needs, which involves various forms of pressure on public sector employees, including, for example, the obligation to attend the ruling party’s political rallies. Regulatory Body for Electronic Media, Anti-Corruption Agency and other control and regulatory bodies are not performing their functions; as a result, after unsuccessful negotiations most of the real political opposition announced a boycott of the next parliamentary elections. The number of laws passed under urgent procedure has been reduced, but the majorisation of the opposition continues, while key positions in agencies and independent regulatory bodies still remain to be filled. The ruling party MPs and the government-controlled media (in other words, the majority of the national media) continue to call the opposition, the non-governmental sector and some university professors traitors, thus marking them as legitimate targets of attack. Instead of opening a dialogue with them, government officials started promoting their own GONGOs (Government-Organised Non-Governmental Organisations) and their “opposition” political parties. Even judges who dare to openly criticise draft laws are in jeopardy of being dragged through the mud and discredited. The adoption of constitutional amendments concerning the judiciary is once again delayed. The amendments that were proposed by the Ministry of Justice do not introduce an adequate minimum standard of judicial independence. Developments in the security sector’s regulative area are disturbing. The new laws reduce the transparency of governance in this sector, and increase the discretionary powers of politicians with regard to procurement and employment. Control mechanisms of the sector’s public procurements and corruption are diminishing, while the number of large procurements is increasing, as well as the number of large contracts concluded outside of the established procedure. The new Law on Communal Militia is also alarming. It significantly expands the powers of this formation and gives local mayors greater discretionary powers over it, leaving much room for potential abuse.

PREUGOVOR ALARM: REPORT ON PROGRESS OF SERBIA IN CHAPTERS 23 AND 24 (May 2020)

Author(s): Authors Various / Language(s): English

PrEUgovor’s monitoring of reforms in chapters 23 and 24 and certain political criteria of EU accession process indicates that, in most fields, the tendency of deterioration has continued during the period from October 2019 to April 2020. This was further exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic in the last two months, especially after the state of emergency was declared on March 15. In this prEUgovor Alarm report, special attention was given to the impact of the state of emergency – which President Vučić defined as “war against an invisible enemy” – on democracy, fundamental rights and freedoms, rule of law, and security and justice in Serbia. Controversy was raised by the very declaration of the emergency state by circumventing the Parliament, without offering proper reasoning as to why it could not convene. Preparations for the elections were suspended, but public officials continued their promotional campaign in favour of the ruling party. Public procurement rules were marginalised due to the pressuring need to “save citizens’ lives”. There was serious concern about the constitutionality of the imposed restrictive measures; however, the Constitutional Court remained silent on these issues. Free access to information of public importance and media freedoms were de facto suspended at one point, while personal data protection was put to the test. Restricted movement and slowed-down work of institutions affected especially vulnerable groups such as women and children, victims of domestic violence or human trafficking, migrants and others. Even political commitment to European integration suffered, from the very beginning of the public health crisis, due to statements of top officials criticising alleged lack of EU solidarity while praising and pleading help from “brotherly” China. The state of emergency ended on 6 May by the decision of the National Assembly.

NORDIJSKI MODEL SARADNJE I MOGUĆNOST NJEGOVE PRIMENE

Author(s): / Language(s): English,Serbian

Regional cooperation in the Balkans, and particularly within the ”Dayton Four“, made a significant progress in recent years. It was particularly driven by a more decisive trying for war crimes, being a key assumption of reconciliation following the conflicts in earlier periods, a more efficient joint fighting crime and corruption – through a much better cooperation of judicial bodies and the police of the countries of this reigon, better economic linking and a more successful economic cooperation by turning the region in a free-trade zone, as well as an overall progress of all countries in European integration process which itself enables and encourages such cooperation. The prevailing context of regional cooperation significantly improved, and in particular the overall political climate, as well as the political will of the leading political figures to have good relations with neighbours. In spite of undoubted results, many of which were inconceivable only a few years ago, some old barriers to regional cooperation still exist, along with some new ones that were created meanwhile. Disagreements regarding the status of Kosovo and the constitutional solutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina are the best, i.e. the most difficult to overcome examples of old barriers, whereas the economic protectionism and again growing political nationalism, as consequences of bad responses to the current economic crisis – are the examples of the new ones. Neither earlier nor recently a satisfactory answer to old problems that cooperation in a region encounters following a promising growth, was not found. It is about an insufficient coordination of numerous initiatives and organisations, as well as about often vague priorities cooperation is to be governed by. There is a growing awareness that a regional cooperation is on a sui generis crossroad. Although the existing forms of cooperation and integration have not been fully utilised, there is a growing need for a new approach which would be a strong impetus both for the existing and possible new forms and ways of cooperation. Therefore, it is not about initial steps, which we all together, luckily, left behind us long time ago, but about a transition to an advanced, higher and a higher quality phase

OTVORENA PITANJA U IGMANSKOM KVARTETU - PARTNERI I (ILI) SUPARNICI

Author(s): Milan Simurdić / Language(s): Serbian

The basic, key issues that dominate relations in the region can be enumerated as follows: borders, succession of the former SFRY, status and property issues, missing persons, prosecution of war crimes, position of national minorities. The order does not indicate importance, it is subject to change and depends on the angle of observation. Also, the list is not exhaustive. Because, for some countries, the issue of refugees (and internally displaced persons) is an acute problem, which applies to Serbia, but also BiH.

Nadmetanje u zelenim tehnologijama: Strategije glavnih igrača i gde bi tu Srbija mogla da pronađe svoje mesto

Author(s): Mihail Korostikov / Language(s): Serbian

The struggle between the European Union, the United States and China for dominance in the new markets of specific technologies could become the most important topic in the next two to three decades, which could overshadow all the military conflicts currently taking place in the world. It is conducted simultaneously on several fronts: there is artificial intelligence, new principles of industrial production (for example, the use of robots or additive technologies), space exploration, and much more. This report deals with the political and economic confrontation of the three parties in the field of the green technology industry and draws certain conclusions about the consequences it could have for Serbia. The role of Serbian reserves of lithium and other minerals important for the latest high-tech industry could affect the position of the country in the world in general, and especially its importance when it comes to the European Union.

Messy Diplomacy: Western Balkan Countries Facing the Gaza Conflict

Author(s): Srđan Cvijić,Vuk Vuksanović / Language(s): English

The ongoing war that Israel is waging in Gaza against Hamas is one of the most consequential conflicts with serious political implications worldwide. The Gaza conflict has already diverted the world’s attention from what has been the most dominant international conflict in the past year and a half: the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many countries in the Western Balkans are conflicted about what diplomatic stance to take on the Gaza war, primarily whether they should support Israel or Palestine or remain neutral since their decision-making will have to balance their domestic public, as well as their ties with Israel, Muslim countries and, most importantly, the US and the EU. The vote taken on October 26 in the UN General Assembly (hereinafter: UNGA) on the resolution that called for a truce between Israel and Hamas with a strong emphasis on humanitarian factors demonstrated how conflicted the Western Balkan countries were on the current conflict in Gaza.

Balkan Defence Monitor 2022

Author(s): Luka Šterić,Maja Bjeloš,Marija Ignjatijević / Language(s): English

The first iteration of the Balkan Defence Monitor entails detailed information on defence expenditure in the region, military exercises with international partners, foreign donations, participation in multinational operations and women in defence systems. The report covers data for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The idea behind the Balkan Defence Monitor is to launch an independent, comprehensive and credible source of information on defence sectors, policies and related issues in the Balkans. The main aim is to try to tackle the lack of information in this field and provide a fact-based alternative to current narratives in the Balkans region.

Serbia Forging Closer Ties with The West – Americanization as a Way of Life

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In the analysis you can find examples which indicate strong ties between Yugoslavia and America in the fields of science, education, art and culture, which are accompanied by intensive political and economic ties, thanks to which Yugoslavia could consider itself on a par with the most developed Western states.

Many Faces of Serbian Foreign Policy Public Opinion and Geopolitical Balancing

Author(s): Maja Bjeloš,Luka Šterić,Vuk Vuksanović / Language(s): English

According to a public opinion survey Serbian citizens identify Russia and China as their greatest friends. As the country's most important foreign policy priorities, citizens recognize preserving Kosovo as part of Serbia, strengthening cooperation with neighboring countries and strengthening cooperation with Russia. More than half of the citizens do not support Serbia's membership in the EU.Most respondents (40%) perceive Russia as Serbia’s best friend, and 72% believe that Russia’s influence in the country is positive, which is an increase of 11% compared to the results of the survey from 2017. Only two percent of people believe that Russia’s attitude towards Serbia is hostile. After Russia, second place on the list of friends is reserved for China (16 percent of respondents). The growth of positive attitudes towards China is especially visible after the beginning of the pandemic, which is proved by the fact that 75% of respondents believe that China provided the most assistance to Serbia in the fight against the pandemic, although there are no official data on the amount of Chinese aid. According to available data, the largest donor was the European Union (EU), and only 3% of Serbian citizens recognize that. In addition, almost 90% of respondents believe that the Chinese influence in the country is positive, which is an increase of over 30 percent compared to the survey from 2017.