DPC BOSNIA DAILY: In Urgent Need of a Plan B
Bosnia Daily: October 31, 2014 – In Urgent Need of a Plan B
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Bosnia Daily: October 31, 2014 – In Urgent Need of a Plan B
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Economic, diplomatic and other sanctions have become a standard tool for international policy. The states that implement them use sanctions as an instrument of pressure to influence the geopolitical decisions of the government of the country against which they are directed. In 2014, in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the east Ukraine, the United States, the EU, Canada, Australia and other countries have imposed sanctions againstthe aggressor. Russia has become the largest and most influential country against which such harsh sanctions have been imposed. Despite Russia's important position in the international arena, the US and the EU have stated that they will not lift sanctions regime until Russia’s implementation of the Minsk Agreements and the return of the Crimean peninsula.
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A large number of Russian citizens have tried to enter EU territory since a mobilisation order was announced in their country. Member States, however, could not agree on the criteria for issuing visas. The Baltic states, Poland, and Finland settled on the strictest entry restrictions. Reaching consensus in the EU would be an important political signal to the Russian authorities. A coherent announcement on this issue could also shift the dissatisfaction of Russian society towards the elites responsible for the attack on Ukraine.
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In order to become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, EU countries are intensively looking for alternative gas import opportunities, including from Sub-Saharan Africa. This direction may become an important element of European diversification, but its development requires external investments and improvement and expansion of the existing infrastructure. European companies and the EU itself can play a key role in this regard.
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Pre-election polls indicate that neither the ruling parties supporting the current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, nor the parties supporting former PM Benjamin Netanyahu may gain a clear advantage in parliament. However, Netanyahu has a better chance of returning to power due to the coherence of his political bloc. The election campaign, more than in previous years, is focused on economic and foreign issues.
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Iran is strengthening its informal alliance with Russia despite its initially cautious position on the war against Ukraine. The use of Iranian drones by Russia has been confirmed multiple times, and there are increased signals about the delivery to Russia of ballistic missiles. These systems will marginally affect the unfavourable military situation for Russia, but they likely will increase damage to Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and the risk of another refugee wave. In this context, there is an urgent need for assistance for Ukraine with counter-drone and missile defences, as well as a change of EU policy towards Iran on the issues of non-proliferation, its nuclear programme, and the internal situation.
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Russia’s loss in the competition for the position of secretary-general and a seat on the Council of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) confirms that Russia’s position in international institutions has weakened as a result of the aggression against Ukraine. On the other hand, the success of the U.S. and the EU in the elections for key positions in the organisation gives them the opportunity to more strongly influence the shaping of standards in important branches of the modern economy, such as artificial intelligence (AI) or wireless communications. The quality of transatlantic leadership in the ITU may determine the chances of its extension to other UN specialised organisations.
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Since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the only NATO leader to hold regular meetings with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Türkiye has attempted to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, is a party to the grain agreement, and has acted as an intermediary in the exchange of prisoners of war. However, Türkiye’s failure to join the sanctions imposed on Russia in connection with the invasion of Ukraine weakens solidarity within the North Atlantic Alliance, but at the same time keeps open the possibility of exerting influence on Russia.
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The outcome of the general elections in Denmark on 1 November marks a continuation of existing policies that have led to landmark security and defence decisions in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Converging threat perceptions and the launch of the Baltic Pipe’s receiving terminal in Nybro - crucial to Polish energy security - could be the basis for an expanded partnership between Poland and Denmark.
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In pursuit of its goals in Ukraine, Russia will intensify hybrid activities, including information warfare, cyber-attacks, or acts of sabotage against the critical infrastructure of NATO and EU countries. These actions are intended to increase fear in the European public about an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict and further deterioration of the economic situation. In this way, Russia seeks to weaken Allied unity, which is necessary to continue the support for Ukraine, implement new strategies of the Alliance and the EU, and react quickly to emerging threats. The importance of building state and societal resilience at the level of individual states and both NATO and the EU is growing.
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The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the resulting disruption of supply chains have intensified the ongoing debate in Germany over the preferred shape of German-Chinese relations. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government sees China as both a partner and rival. Reducing dependence on China is challenging due to its scale and the strength of the pro-China business lobby. This unsteady position will cause tensions in relations with partners, including the U.S., and conflicts within the governing coalition. Germany will continue to develop trade relations with China while blocking Chinese investment in critical sectors.
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France’s policy towards China is based on opposing aspirations. On the one hand, President Emmanuel Macron is trying to maintain the possibility of developing cooperation with China, fearing a bipolar U.S.- Chinese rivalry. On the other, he seeks to protect French and European industries more effectively against unfair competition from China and opposes Chinese ambitions to dominate the Indo-Pacific. According to the French president, reconciling these goals is possible through more effective cooperation within the EU, although France’s aim to reduce the trade deficit puts it in the role of a competitor to other EU Member States. In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Macron wants to use China as a means of pressure on Russia.
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North Korea is conducting further missile tests to check new types of weapons and increase the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. The adoption of a new nuclear doctrine that allows pre-emptive nuclear strikes also serves this purpose. North Korea is taking advantage of the period of tension between the U.S., Russia, and China, which prevent the UN Security Council from adopting further sanctions. In this situation, the U.S. and its allies should strengthen defence and deterrence capabilities against North Korea and set achievable goals to reduce the risk of escalation of tensions before possible negotiations.
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Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has caused a serious humanitarian crisis in Europe at a time when global aid needs are growing dramatically and are now at their highest in history. The EU’s strong support for Ukraine poses challenges to the EU development cooperation system and risks reducing the EU’s involvement in other developing countries. There is an urgent need to increase spending on EU development assistance, as well as to create new instruments and mechanisms. In this way, support for Ukraine will not limit the assistance needed for other countries, including strengthening their resistance to Russian influence.
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The failure of Germany’s now-discarded Eastern policy has forced it to take steps to increase its resilience to Russian pressure in the area of energy. The biggest and fastest changes are targeting the goal to become independent of Russian raw materials, especially gas. This has required Germany to change its approach to the use of LNG and nuclear power, among other energy sources. The crisis-related rise in energy prices is a major concern for the German public and is affecting the government’s ratings and bolstering the pro-Russian party Alternative for Germany (AfD).
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Expansion on the liquefied natural gas market has become one of the priority areas in Russia’s energy policy in recent years. This has been reflected in the statements made by government representatives and the many strategic documents that have been adopted recently. In particular, on 16 March this year the government approved a document entitled The Long-term Programme for the Development of Liquefied Natural Gas Production in the Russian Federation which envisages ambitious plans for further development in this area: an output of 80 to 140million tonnes of LNG in 2035. The assumptions of the strategy fit in with the trend of regular increases in the production and export of Russian LNG which have been visible in recent years (from 11 to nearly 30 million tonnes in 2016–19). It can be concluded from these announcements that Russia is planning to increase its share in the global liquefied natural gas market to over 10%, and possibly even up to 20–30%. The expansion in this sector is also an argument for Moscow to strengthen its political and military presence in the Arctic. Increasing the Russian share on the European LNG market may also be a kind of remedy for Gazprom’s loss of influence in some EU countries.
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The rigged presidential election held in Belarus on 9 August 2020 and the brutal crackdown on the participants of post-election demonstrations triggered immediate criticism from the leaders of EU member states. These developments, combined with Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s unwillingness to engage in a dialogue with the opposition, resulted on 19 August 2020 in the EU deciding to prepare a set of sanctions involving a ban on more than 30 representatives of the regime entering the EU and freezing their assets. Due to the absence of unanimity among the EU member states, the sanctions were only imposed on 2 October 2020, when the US introduced its belated and mild visa restrictions. In Belarus, the crackdown continued, which prompted the EU to adopt, in November and December 2020, another two packages of sanctions (the latter targeting seven Belarusian businesses and other entities). The restrictions imposed by the EU and the US, albeit belated and cautiously approached, should be viewed as a symbolic gesture of disapproval which poses no direct threat to the regime, but which serves as a semblance of moral support for the rebellious majority of Belarusian society. In addition, in August 2020 the EU announced its assistance programme for the empowerment of civil society in Belarus.
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The Lithuanian government has not recognised the legality of the election of Alyaksandr Lukashenka as President of the Republic of Belarus, and it now regards the opposition as their main partner. Lithuania has taken on the role of spokesperson for the opposition’s interests, a move which has put an end to Vilnius’s cooperation with the Belarusian dictator. Lithuania attaches particular importance to maintaining ties with Belarusian citizens, on the one hand by providing support to the victims of repression, and on the other by ensuring that social and economic contacts between the two countries are maintained.
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The Republicans fared worse in the midterm elections than expected, but they managed to take over the House of Representatives. Now, they can block some of President Joe Biden’s initiatives, but not foreign policy to a great extent. While there have been examples of bipartisan collaboration in the past two years, the Republicans have already announced House-led investigations into the Biden administration’s actions, which will make it difficult to reach compromise. The first two years of Biden’s presidency may turn out to be the time of his greatest achievements in domestic politics.
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Despite Joe Biden’s election promise to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons in U.S. security strategy, his administration is not making fundamental changes to U.S. nuclear policy. It is continuing the modernisation of the nuclear arsenal, including forces important for deterring Russia from aggression against NATO. Biden wants to, however, cancel the work on a sea-launched cruise missile that would broaden such options. It is unclear whether, in potential arms control talks, the current U.S. administration will uphold the postulate of limiting shorter-range Russian nuclear weapons, which is important for Poland.
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