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Perception, Cognitive Dissonance and Nuclear Deterrence in the Information Age, Possible Implications for the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture in the Context of a New NATO Strategic Concept

Author(s): Olga Raluca CHIRIAC / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The February 2022 military aggression on Ukraine has sent shock waves across European capitals as well as across the Atlantic. This “new normal”, namely a conventional war in twenty-first century Europe, is both hard to process and inherently ominous as to the future of the European security architecture and strategic stability on the continent. The aim of the article is to analyse the combined effects of technological advances in information/computing technologies and human cognition on strategic choices such as nuclear deterrence strategies. The paper is looking to address the proposed research questions through a cognitive psychology lens, with a particular focus on perception and cognitive dissonance. The plasticity of both the geopolitical environment and the information space present the optimal conditions for propagation of cognitive errors in human decision-making. The article is taking a closer look at what said vulnerability means for the Euro-Atlantic security architecture, most specifically for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

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The Strategic Nuclear Treaty Regime at a Crossroads. The (Im)Possible Search for a New Point of Balance?

Author(s): Mario MARINOV / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The qualitative and quantitative balance in strategic nuclear capabilities between major global nuclear-armed states had been the subject of a longstanding international bilateral and multilateral treaty regime, which since the onset of the 21st century has undergone a process of continual degradation. With the gradual establishment of a more confrontational multipolar world order, the treaty regime as well as the guarantees it provided for international security have come into further peril. The present paper will examine the defining characteristics of the nuclear treaty regime, the factors leading to a point of balance in preceding decades between the nuclear superpowers of the United States of America and the Russian Federation, and the transformational factors, which have destabilised the balance in contemporary times. Furthermore, the paper will extend the discussion on the future of nuclear arms control to the changing geopolitical landscape and the rise of new major global powers such as the People’s Republic of China. Ultimately the paper attempts to establish the framework of the future evolution of the nuclear arms debate and the possibilities of reaching a new point of stability and deterrence between the mentioned state actors.

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General Characteristics of the Kaliningrad Region

Author(s): Șerban Grigoraș-Stănescu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This article presents a brief but informative examination of the Kaliningrad region in order to find out the mysteries of a geographical territory that belongs to Northern Europe, but currently represents Russia’s only European trophy after winning the Second World War. The paper contains general elements, as well as data that may seem new, through which the geography and history of the region are analysed in the first part. After understanding the natural state and the secular heritage of this territory, we will portray the policies of the Russian Federation imposed on its exclave, determine whether Kaliningrad is an important commercial actor on the international stage and investigate the evolution of the population from an ethnic, cultural and religious point of view. All these elements described previously represent an essential body of knowledge in our attempt to ultimately determine the importance of the Kaliningrad Oblastas a first-line geopolitical bastion in the eternal East-West confrontation in Europe.

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The Battle of Kyiv – Aspects Regarding the Conduct of Military Operations at the Tactical Level

Author(s): Claudiu Valer NISTORESCU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The military operations conducted on the territory of Ukraine during the conflict started by the Russian Federation on 24 February 2022 show that the chances for large-scale combat operations in Europe have significantly increased. Consequently, the way those operations are carried out must be carefully reconsidered. Adapting to the requirements of the modern battlefield requires rapid multi-domain integration of new technologies and modern weapons systems. Therefore, doctrinal changes are required. There is no doubt that the Battle of Kyiv is a valuable source of information for military leaders, regarding the conduct of military operations at each level. Therefore, a pertinent analysis in relation to the factors that have contributed to the battle’s outcome could be very helpful. The main objective of the analysis is to highlight lessons on the topic of planning and carrying out military operations at the tactical level. It emphasises both the determining factors for the failure of the Russian offensive and the features that gave the Ukrainian forces the upper hand, ensuring the successful defence operation. The research methodology is based on the qualitative evaluation of the available information, to enable an assessment of the battle from the combat functions perspective with the aim to identify possible gaps in Westernarmies’ way to carry out combat operations.

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Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems – Emerging and Potentially Disruptive Technology

Author(s): Romică Cernat / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The renewal of the competition for the super power status has led to the revival of the emphasis on defence planning, by the great powers, on the capabilities intended for so-called high-end conventional, technologically sophisticated warfare, which involves large-scale and high-intensity military actions. Weapons that can be linked to waging high-end warfare actually include the military uses of lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) and artificial intelligence (AI). The connection between robotics, autonomous systems and AI has the potential to change the nature of warfare. Theoretically, a lethal weapon system should be considered autonomous if it is designed so that it can modify its integrated programming, does not take into account the objectives initially set and modifies its rules of engagement without human intervention. Human judgment will remain essential, but the line between what humans and machines do best will constantly be shifting in the coming years. The most critical dimension of autonomy is the task the machine is performing. There are significant expectations and challenges, opportunities, and risks associated with LAWS across the full range of military operations. LAWS will influence military operations in the future and will have at least an evolutionary – if not revolutionary – effect.

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Geopolitical Configurations on the Ponto-Baltic Isthmus in the Context of the Aggression in Ukraine

Author(s): Andreea-Amalia STANICA / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Starting the study from the theory of the Heartland, drawn up by Halford John Mackinder, according to which who rules Eastern Europe rules the world, we identify the geopolitical importance of the Ponto-Baltic isthmus. The region imaginarily bordered to the North by the Baltic Sea and to the South by the Black Sea has been a hotspot throughout history. Thus, the strategic importance of the Ponto-Baltic isthmus and the conflicting interests in the region are the current reasons for the confrontation between the Russian Federation and the West. The illegal aggression of the Russian state in Kyiv confirms the hypothesis that Moscow is the main threat to the security and territorial integrity of the states of the Ponto-Baltic region. In this respect, to become aware of the regional geopolitical realities, in the first part of the research both the geographical coordinates of the Ponto-Baltic isthmus and the historical coordinates stated at the national level will be outlined, in keeping with the writings of scholars such as Simion Mehedinți and Nicolae Iorga. Afterwards, the strategy of the Russian Federation in the region will be analysed, in relation to the permanent fuelling of conflicts on the territory of states that pursue their Euro-Atlanticvision. Romania’s role in the Ponto-Baltic region will also be identified, through its status of a regional pivot and a relevant actor in the process of consolidating NATO’s eastern flank. The research will be the result of the cross-use of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, for an in-depth approach to the subject under study.

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Strategic Trends of International Security Organizations to Achieve/Consolidate Regional and Global Security

Author(s): Alexandru Eparu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This article is an overview of the international strategic context in the next 20 years, designed to guide the work of international security organizations in achieving/consolidating regional and global security. The analysis is based on the work of international organizations as sound judgments on different alternative strategies that focus on the challenges of the most likely future themes. According to the assessment, the period up to 2040 will be a period of transition, characterized by instability, both in the relations between states and in the relations between groups within states. The world is likely to continue to face the reality of a changing climate, rapid population growth, resource scarcity, the resurgence of ideologies, and above all, shifts in global power from West to East.No state, group or individual can face these challenges in isolation, only collective responses will be adequate. Therefore, the struggle to establish an effective system of global governance capable of meeting these challenges will continue to be a central theme of the age. Globalization, global inequality, climate change and technological innovation will affect the lives of everyone on the planet. There will be a constant tension between greater interdependence between states, groups and individuals, and increased competition between them. Dependence on complex global systems, such as global supply chains for resources, is likely to increase the risk of systemic problems.

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The Soviet Black Sea Fleet (1943) – Organisation, Dispersal, Command –

Author(s): Alin Spânu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In 1943, the Soviet fleet in the Black Sea was clearly superior to its opponents (Germans, Italians, Romanians, Bulgarians), but there were no major naval confrontations in this theatre of war. In most confrontations, starting in 1941, the Soviet naval forces suffered losses and were forced to retreat. The Romanian intelligence services had data on the organisation of the Soviet fleet, the dispersal, the commanders, the naval constructions and the ways of action. At the end of 1943, when the Red Army was on the offensive and had begun the landing in Crimea, the Romanian-German naval forces started an operation to supply the defenders, and later, in 1944, an evacuation of their own troops. Despite the vulnerabilities, the Soviet fleet did not attack decisively, so the withdrawal by sea was relatively organised and saved more than 120,000 soldiers and civilians.

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Tools for Official Relations in Public Activity - Disparities in Good Administrative Behaviour

Author(s): Camelia Daciana Stoian,Cristian Măduța / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The present research aims at the need to take up the example of the provisions of the European Code of Good Administrative Behaviour at the level of public administration of the member countries. In fact, the activities performed by civil servants or contractual staff in the public power regime, more precisely in the segment of law enforcement, in the segment of public service provision, have the same legal regime seen through the angle of interest of the citizen of the same member state as the citizen of the Union, or of any legal person. Any communication at official level has as its central point certain principles and limits imposed for reasons of private interest and categorical public interest. However, employees of the national public administration, viewed individually in conjunction with their own duties, have not implemented the procedural principles set out in the practice of the Court of Justice of the European Union with regard to 'limits' and do not have a methodology to follow in identifying a balance between the permitted degree of transparency of their work in relation to citizens' requests. At the same time, the way of decent expression of the justified impartial attitude in the legal and efficient solution of requests in the daily work with the public, has not implemented the standards of good administrative conduct aimed at guaranteeing the efficiency of the work and the quality of public service at the same time. The implications of this study aim to outline the essence of the obligation to adopt a Code of Good Administrative Behaviour at the level of each Member State, based on the citizen's right to good administration, on the case law of national and European courts and on the practical explanation of convergent coordinating lines such as, for example: legality and proportionality or the clear absence of abuse of power and honesty.

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Digital Economy Law a Reality Manifested in Legal Reports of Production, Commerce, Services and Public Administration

Author(s): Manole Decebal Bogdan / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Online transactions are a certainty of the moment in all social and economic fields. Digital economy has been part of everyday normality for a long time. The legislation that regulates legal relations is not updated and there is no clear perspective by which to confirm the imposition of "digital economy law" in society. The acts of commerce, services, and production in which the digital society participates (hard, software, networks and augmented reality) develop, in themselves, a number of legal subjects and a large palette of contractual or tortious civil responsibilities that do not have a clear regulation. Through this research, we are trying to launch a current and forward-looking topic to the public professional debate to lay the foundations for the "Digital Economy Right". The research methods used are observation of flows and case studies of "artificial intelligence" used through software in the private and public economy; reporting of legal subjects involved in legal relations to the legal norm. The implications of the study are relevant for the whole society, but also for legal professionals. The results constitute benchmarks for the debate and drafting of the future legal norms necessary to harmonize the international legislation of classical law with the law of artificial intelligence.

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Digital Identity as the Element of Concept of Service-Oriented State

Author(s): Vira Tokareva / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The aim of this paper is to consider the digital identity as a key element of the service-oriented state (e-governance). In the first section the background of developing the service-oriented state in the EU and Ukraine are discussed. It has been established that with the spread of Covid-19, The Government of Ukraine declared on course towards of paperless public services. Due to the full-scale escalation of conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Government of Ukraine speed- up the processes of transforming public administrative services into e-services. Digital identity is supposed to be one of the elements of e-governance alongside with remote identification (biometric authentication), the digital money, secure payments and online banking etc. In the second section the category of digital identity and close related categories are revealed. The differences between digital identity, digital profile (account), avatar and electronic entity are proved. On the basis of the conducted research, the features and constituent elements of digital identity were determined and proposals were developed to improve the legislation in Ukraine. The necessity to study the digital identity as the essential component of service-oriented state, online banking, e-commerce and in light of the War in Ukraine and seeking way of renovation legislation is founded.

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„Умните граници“ като отговор на рисковете от имиграция и тероризъм в ЕС

Author(s): Stavri Yordanov Ferdov / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

Scientific report studies the lasts measures of EU institutions for combating against immigration and terroristic threats. Focus is to the conception of „smart borders“ and use of temporary technological achievement and their application in border control in EU and Bulgaria as an external border of EU. Smart technological approaches at different types of borders of Bulgaria: earth, see and air are researched. Relationship between technic and officers are analyzed. Conclusions about tendencies and contradiction between security and fundamental rights of citizens, crossing the borders and way of reducing of this contradiction are made.

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Изкуствен интелект и асиметрични войни, водени от Русия

Author(s): Yordan Ivanov Bakalov / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

Artificial intelligence is the future of all humanity, and by betting on AI, Russia sees itself in direct geopolitical competition with the US and China, but it lags behind in science and development in this area. Politically, the Russian government is unlikely to dramatically increase investment in emerging technologies, given the country's old hydrocarbon-based extractive economy. For Russian strategic thought in foreign policy, information warfare is an integral part and the line between conventional and asymmetric warfare is blurred. In order for Europe and the US to cope with the new type of hyper-war caused by AI, a dynamic model of countering asymmetric threats must be developed. Governments, large non-profit organizations should also invest in research that will assess the short-term and long-term consequences of the use of AI.

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Роля на системите с изкуствен интелект в разузнавателната дейност

Author(s): Vasil Hristov Georgiev / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The report explores the areas of application of artificial intelligence systems in intelligence activities.

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Войната в Украйна и използването на оръжия от ново поколение

Author(s): Petar Yordanov Nenkov / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The color revolution in Ukraine started in 2013. Gradually, the tension escalated into armed clashes between Euromaidan supporters and the law enforcement authorities, which led to a coup in Kyiv. The eastern provinces of Ukraine, inhabited by a Russian-speaking population, declared against the violent change of power. In Donetsk and Luhansk, separatist republics were established. The authorities in Kyiv sent troops to quell their rebellion. On March 16, 2014, a referendum was held on Crimea's accession to Russia. On February 24, 2022, the armed forces of Russia invaded Ukraine. In hostilities, both sides use modern weaponry. The supplies of military equipment from NATO and the EU to the government in Kyiv are not stopping. Thus, the military conflict in Ukraine became internationalized and turned the country into a testing ground for weapons of the latest generation.

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Автоматичното попълване от Национална агенция за приходите на годишните данъчни декларации на физическите лица като фактор за защита на фискалната сигурност на държавата и интересите и правата на задължените лица

Author(s): Nedyalka Ivanova Petrova / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

This report examines the application of artificial intelligence in the autofill by the National Revenue Agency of the annual tax returns of natural persons. A clear justification shall be made as to why this directly affects the fiscal security of the state and the rights and interests of obliged persons.

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Изкуствен интелект в корпоративната сигурност

Author(s): Ilian Ivanov Yordanov / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The synergy between technical advancement, the search for higher business results and human intelligence is mandatory as a factor for corporate security, and the intersection between artificial intelligence as an innovation and corporate security is only possible through the bridge of human judgment.

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Изкуственият интелект в сферата на сигурността – предимства и недостатъци

Author(s): Hristo Dimitrov Varin / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

As technology advances, improves, and enters our daily lives, it seems that artificial intelligence will be an important part of the world's technological future. That is why it is important to know and study the subject in depth. In the presented work, we will first consider what artificial intelligence is, how it works, its advantages and disadvantages, as well as its „presence“ in cyber security and warfare.

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Иновации, предприемачество и изкуствен интелект в корпоративната сигурност

Author(s): Ilian Ivanov Yordanov / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The intersection points in the triad – innovation, entrepreneurship and artificial intelligence and corporate security show that a balance is needed between the pace of development of innovation and artificial intelligence and the adaptation of different social groups, as well as the retraining of the workforce in accordance with the technological changes of business processes and change in the business environment as a whole.

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Подходи за повишаване на готовността и способностите на ГД „Пожарна безопасност и защита на населението“ и нейните териториални структури за реагиране и бързо възстановяване след наводнения

Author(s): Stiliyan Ognyanov Krotnev / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

General Directorate „Fire Safety and Protection of the Population“ – Ministry of Interior is a national specialized structure of the Ministry of Interior for ensuring fire safety, rescue and protection in case of disasters under the terms and conditions of the Ministry of Interior and the Disaster Protection Act.

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