Series:IIR - POLICY PAPERS

To Catch a Fogle

To Catch a Fogle

Author(s): Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; USA; Ryan Fogle; FBI; meetings of “illegals” detained in the U.S.; cyber threats; EU;

The Putin regime seems to have chosen to publicly expose Ryan Fogle not simply as a “tit-for-tat” for the embarrassing release of footage by the FBI of the meetings of “illegals” detained in the U.S. (2010) with Russian diplomats, but to gesture toward domestic audiences and to humiliate the U.S. in order to weaken its position in mutual negotiations, knowing that Washington may not be in the position to retaliate. For the EU, the episode is a reminder that even in the age of cyber threats the conventional spy war is far from over.

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ABM Defense & Prospects of a New Russia-US “Reset”

ABM Defense & Prospects of a New Russia-US “Reset”

Author(s): Yuri E. Fedorov / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Russia; nuclear arsenals; security and defense; geopolitics; NATO;

The Obama administration recently suggested concluding a legally binding agreement on transparency that would confirm that American BMD does not pose a threat to Russia’s deterrence forces, and also concluding a framework agreement on further cutting Russian and American nuclear arsenals. The USA may be interested in reducing the tensions with Russia over the missile defense with a view to break the deadlock on a wide complex of hard security and proliferation issues, including the hot problems of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe and Iran and the North Korean nuclear programs, and also to ensure Russia’s support in managing regional crises – these days, especially that in Syria. Moscow probably agrees that it should negotiate a legally binding agreement on transparency and confidence building measures with the USA. At the same time Russia continues in asking for legally binding guarantees that the US BMD is not aimed against its strategic forces as the sine qua none of any other talks and agreements on nuclear weapons with the US. The Kremlin also may propose some trilateral consultations between the USA, Russia, and Europe on BMD with a view to involve some European circles that are skeptical about the missile defense in the debate. In a wider geopolitical context, Russia’s policy towards the BMD issue results from Moscow’s perception of the US quest for a compromise on strategic problems as a weakness. The US quest for a compromise may and most probably is used by Moscow to question the reliability of the American alliance obligations. It cannot be ruled out that there are plans for a certain “big deal” between the two countries, at the possibility of which Moscow hints. In the context of this deal, Russia would consent to new negotiations on further reductions of strategic nuclear weapons in exchange for the USA consenting to limit its non-nuclear strategic systems, take into account the conventional arms in Europe, limit the US naval activity in the seas around Europe and accept future Russian proposals on European security aimed at enfeebling NATO.

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European Strategic Autonomy: Distant but Irresistible

European Strategic Autonomy: Distant but Irresistible

Author(s): Michal Šimečka / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; security; NATO; Donald Trump; EU's identity;

Under pressure from overlapping crises, the European Union is embracing a more assertive role in security. The election of Donald Trump has added a further sense of urgency and purpose to EU defense cooperation. The pursuit of European strategic autonomy is not just a matter of upgrading capabilities, building institutions, or re-calibrating EU–NATO cooperation. It is also a struggle to re-invent the EU’s identity. The Czech Republic emerged as a supporter of the new dynamic, but Prague should do more to back its rhetorical support with tangible commitments and policy leadership.

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Karabakh’s Twenty Years Crisis: The EU Should Do More

Karabakh’s Twenty Years Crisis: The EU Should Do More

Author(s): Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno Karabakh conflict; EU; foreign and security policy; 1994; Azerbaijan and Armenia; peace;

Twenty years have passed since an armistice in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict was concluded. EU can and should do more to facilitate its resolution. The Union’s security interests are at stake (energy), and it can use the hitherto neglected conflict to boost credibility of its foreign and security policy (CFSP) in the context of the Ukraine crisis which additionally makes the conflict parties (Armenia, Azerbaijan) uneasy of Russia’s intentions, a fact that the EU can use to its advantage. The EU can notably mobilize its comprehensive approach to address the conflict, promote a conciliatory narrative of history and future of peaceful coexistence, and declare readiness to assume peacekeeping tasks under the CSDP. Twenty years ago, on 12 May 1994, a ceasefire came into effect that ended the war in Nagorno Karabakh. Ever since, uneasy truce exists between parties Azerbaijan and Armenia, parties to the conflict. Inflammatory rhetoric has proliferated; and periodical skirmishes along the line of contact have cost more than 3,000 lives. The EU, while designing an ambitious agenda to create a ring of peaceful and prosperous states in its neighbourhood, has so far eschewed more direct engagement. This policy paper argues that it should eschew it no longer, and outlines how it can do so without excessive commitment on its part.

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How Should We Deal with the Discrimination and Dysfunction in Bosnia and Herzegovina? Towards a New European Approach

How Should We Deal with the Discrimination and Dysfunction in Bosnia and Herzegovina? Towards a New European Approach

Author(s): Tomáš Dopita / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnia and Herzegovinaʼs internal structure; discrimination; dysfunction; EU integration; education; cargo and transport; private business and enterprise; agricultural production; trade;

Bosnia and Herzegovinaʼs internal structure is regarded discriminatory and dysfunctional. The process of European integration is stalled. There is an urgent need to increase both the top-down and the bottom up pressure on the local politicians so that they would pursue the necessary reforms. The top-down pressure on politicians can be enhanced by a rationalization of external institutional relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, namely by the closure of the Office of the High Representative. The bottom-up pressure on the local political representatives can be improved through societal integration in everyday life. The current trend of the disintegration of common institutions and material structures needs to be countered. Societal integration should be nurtured by improving the means for common education, cargo and transport, private business and enterprise, agricultural production, and trade.

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Can the European Public Block the Enlargement to the Western Balkans?

Can the European Public Block the Enlargement to the Western Balkans?

Author(s): Anes Makul / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU enlargement; political and economic performance; Member States; EU accession; public opinion; Visegrad countries;

The EU enlargement has been questioned since the first enlargement round. Also, since the start of the global economic crisis, public support to further enlargement decreased significantly. Whether a turnaround in this trend will occur depends on whether there will be changes in several main dimensions. The EU and its member states, as well as the candidate and potential candidate states, need to improve their economic performances and provide opportunities and perspective to their younger generations. The political and economic performance of the newest member states, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, is a significant indicator that can shape the public opinion on further enlargement. The candidate and potential candidate states should be further encouraged and supported in their fulfilling of the accession criteria. The EU institutions and national governments should develop policies to explain to citizens the implications of further enlargement.

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What’s next for Turkey? Lessons of the 2014 presidential elections

What’s next for Turkey? Lessons of the 2014 presidential elections

Author(s): Zoltán Egeresi / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkish presidential elections; 2014; Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; centralization of power; presidential system; EU;

The 2014 Turkish presidential elections have demonstrated that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP were able to overcome their previous political crises during the last, one-year-long eventful period, and they were successful in continuing to mobilize their electorate. Erdoğan’s victory at the presidential elections of 10 August 2014 may lead to the introduction of a presidential system and further centralization of power in Turkey. However, it can also be an overture for changes in the opposition. The EU has to keep being involved in Turkish domestic politics, especially in the democratization process, and support the emergence of a more plural Turkish political community.

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Ensuring the Stability of Central Asia after the 2014 Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Ensuring the Stability of Central Asia after the 2014 Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Author(s): Nikita Odintsov / Language(s): English

Keywords: developments in Afghanistan; 2014; terrorist groups; security and defense; refugee crisis; NGOs;

The prospects of stability in Central Asia after the 2014 withdrawal will be influenced by the developments in Afghanistan. Yet the overall fragility of the states in the region necessitates taking preventive measures. The previous strategies of the terrorist groups in the region allow us to identify a few focal points of strategic importance which must be protected. To achieve this, it is necessary to use private military companies and return Russian border guards to Tajikistan. Also, the Collective Security Treaty Organization must prepare for possible massive security and refugee crises. The implementation of state social policies can be outsourced to NGOs, which shall refrain from any political activity.

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Is there a civil war in Ukraine?

Odehrává se na Ukrajině občanská válka?

Author(s): Vít Beneš / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Czech Republic; EU; NATO; ethnic conflict; Russian minority; Ukraine; war;

Rozpad SSSR se dostal do fáze národnostního konfliktu (jugoslávský scénář). Česká republika, EU a NATO by proto neměly podceňovat riziko rozšíření etnického konfliktu i do dalších zemí s ruskou menšinou. Důležitou roli při iniciaci a eskalaci konfliktu hráli ruští nacionalisté / příslušníci ruských bezpečnostních složek (Girkin a spol.). Česká republika a EU by proto měly veřejně vyzvat Rusko k jejich vydání ke stíhání na Ukrajinu. Separatističtí velitelé nejsou reprezentanty Donbasu. Česká republika a EU by proto měly podpořit zapojení zákonných zástupců Doněcké a Luhanské oblasti do vyjednávacího procesu. Rusko se definitivně zdiskreditovalo jako údajný ochránce slovanských národů. Česká republika by proto měla rehabilitovat myšlenku slovanské vzájemnosti v její liberální podobě, očištěnou od nacionalistických a panslavistických bludů. Ve snaze porozumět současné válce na Ukrajině se často uchylujeme k historickým analogiím. Válka na Ukrajině bývá přirovnávána k minulým horkým, studeným i zamrzlým konfliktům. Svérázným způsobem se do této debaty zapojil i prezident Miloš Zeman. Nejdříve na Rhodosu označil ukrajinskou válku za pouhou „chřipku“, o týden později ukrajinský konflikt přirovnal k španělské občanské válce. Bohužel, doposud používané analogie se míjejí s realitou ukrajinské války. Čím tedy ukrajinská válka není? A čím může být?

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Transition Experience 2.0: A new way to close the gap between the Central European human rights and development policies

Transition Experience 2.0: A new way to close the gap between the Central European human rights and development policies

Author(s): Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň / Language(s): English

Keywords: independent foreign policy; Central European countries; political rights; social rights; public diplomacy; development policies;

After twenty-five years of independent foreign policy making, the Central European countries must rethink their post-communist experience. The Transition Experience 2.0 narrative links the relatively successful development of the region not only to the political rights gained after 1989 but also to the social rights inherited from the socialist era. The application of Transition Experience 2.0 can mobilize the limited foreign aid resources by enlarging the scope of the supported human rights groups abroad to social and environmental movements as well as by applying the rights-based approach to their development cooperation programmes and emphasizing their political dimension. Further impacts can be achieved by coordinating strategies and applying one public diplomacy brand to human rights and development policies without merging them and by using Transition Experience 2.0 as a starting point for a serious discussion on policy coherence for development.

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Greek state bankruptcy would not lead to its exit from the euro zone

Státní bankrot Řecka nepovede k jeho odchodu z eurozóny

Author(s): Vít Beneš / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Greek bankruptcy; leaving the monetary union; EU; euro; de-euroisation; Greek economy;

Politici i média by měli přestat směšovat „řecký bankrot“ a „odchod z měnové unie“. Scénář státního bankrotu bez opuštění společné měny je zcela reálný, jak ukazuje zkušenost osmi států USA z let 1841–1843. Evropská unie nemůže nijak přinutit řeckou vládu a řecké obyvatelstvo, aby proti své vůli přestali používat euro. Evropská unie by měla soustředit svoji pozornost na řešení řecké bankovní krize, která v důsledku státního bankrotu hrozí. Měnová odluka jako nástroj na řešení bankovní krize nedává smysl ani z pohledu EU, ani z pohledu Řecka. Vyplácení důchodů a platů státních zaměstnanců v drachmách by bylo pro řeckou vládu politickou sebevraždou. „De-euroizace“ řecké ekonomiky by byla bojem s větrnými mlýny

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China Re-Discovers Former Eastern Europe: Reason for Joy or Concern?

Čína znovu objevuje bývalou východní Evropu: Důvod k radosti či obavám?

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: China; Czech Republic; Eastern Europe; economy; long-term policy; Czech export and investment policy;

Čína se dosud nebývalou měrou začala zajímat o postkomunistickou část Evropy. Tento zájem je motivován ekonomicky, obavy z čínského „rozděl a panuj“ v EU jsou zatím neúměrné. Česká republika provedla největší pozitivní posun v politických vztazích s Čínou ze všech účastníků regionálního sdružení ČLR+16. Tento obrat je návratem k normálu a k evropskému mainstreamu, je kompatibilní s dlouhodobou politikou ČR. Čína dlouhodobě patří ke strategickým destinacím české exportní a investiční politiky, ČR teď musí využít příznivý souběh své bilaterální agendy s ČLR s formátem 1+16.

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Fostering the Catching-Up Process of Central Europe: The Need for an Innovation-Oriented Cohesion Policy

Fostering the Catching-Up Process of Central Europe: The Need for an Innovation-Oriented Cohesion Policy

Author(s): Gilles Lepesant / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Europe; economic growth; innovation; education; labor market; regional and sectoral policies of the EU; business;

The future of the so far successful growth model of Central European economies, based on low-to-medium technology sectors, is under threat. The Central European countries have not undertaken sufficient reforms in the area of innovation, education and the labor market. The EU should commit to a stronger conditionality regarding the Cohesion Policy funds to provide a stronger incentive to beneficiary countries that need to enforce reforms and put into effect a better coordination between regional and sectoral policies of the EU. The reforms in the Member States should encompass business support structures together with education institutions to ensure that research incubators have meaningful impact on the competitiveness of their businesses.

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Creating fiscal protectorates is not the path to true economic and monetary union

Vytváření fiskálních protektorátů není cestou ke skutečné hospodářské a měnové unii

Author(s): Vít Beneš / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: eurozone crisis; fiscal politics; fiscal union; national budget; European budget; tax; cohesion policy; fiscal risk sharing; sharing fiscal sovereignty;

Eurozóna musí respektovat principy fiskálního federalismu, tedy fiskální suverenitu států (národní rozpočty) i fiskální suverenitu federace (evropský rozpočet). Eurozóna by měla skončit se „sdílením fiskální suverenity“ mezi členskými státy (tj. přestat vynucovat rozpočtová pravidla včetně Fiskálního paktu) a upustit od „sdílení fiskálního rizika“ mezi státy (tj. zrušit záchranné mechanismy a obnovit princip no bailout). Evropská unie by měla zavést evropskou daň pro potřeby financování evropského rozpočtu, zejména pak kohezní politiky (tzv. evropské fondy). Kohezní politiku je třeba reformovat, aby působila proticyklicky a zmírňovala důsledky asymetrických šoků v měnové unii. Nesmí však sloužit k financování či úvěrování národních rozpočtů. Česká republika by neměla ratifikovat Fiskální pakt a smlouvu o ESM, naopak by měla požadovat federalizaci eurozóny v souladu s výše uvedenými principy. Vývoj posledních několika týdnů, který vyústil v ultimátum řecké vládě, je tragédií pro řeckou demokracii. Výsledná „dohoda“ je ale tragédií i pro ty z nás, kteří věřili v možnost vytvoření demokratické evropské federace nebo, chcete-li, Spojených států evropských. Projekt měnové unie zdegeneroval do podoby režimu fixních kurzů se společnou měnou, který drží pohromadě pouze strach z toho, co by se stalo v případě opuštění eura a zavedení vlastní měny. Projekt politické unie (federalizace Evropy) byl hlavními aktéry (Francie a Německo) ve skutečnosti opuštěn již před mnoha lety a eurozóna dnes definitivně zmutovala do jakéhosi mezivládního klubu, ve kterém se naplno projevuje mocenská nerovnováha mezi členskými státy. Krize eurozóny poměrně jasně demonstrovala, že měnová unie není dlouhodobě udržitelná bez unie fiskální. Zároveň se ale v celé své nahotě ukázala neudržitelnost a nedemokratičnost současného modelu „fiskální unie“, opírajícího se o dva pilíře: mechanismy na záchranu bankrotujících států (sdílení fiskálního rizika) a vymahatelná pravidla rozpočtové disciplíny (sdílení fiskální suverenity). Jako federalista tvrdím, že tato forma „fiskální unie“ je nedemokratický a nefunkční slepenec, který jde proti všem zásadám fiskálního federalismu, tak jak je praktikován ve skutečně fungující měnové a fiskální unii, ve Spojených státech amerických.

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A looming crisis of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty: Sources and consequences

A looming crisis of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty: Sources and consequences

Author(s): Yury Fedorov / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; violation; Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty; NATO; nuclear weapons; military growth;

Russia’s violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) confirms that Moscow sees nuclear weapons as a robust tool preventing NATO from militarily opposing the Russian military expansion in the strategic rim stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea. If Russia adds intermediate-range missiles to its armory the INF Treaty will collapse, thus challenging the USA and NATO with a dilemma: they could either to be reconciled with Russia’s growing military threat to Europe, or neutralize this threat by stationing American nuclear missiles near Russian borders. The countries of Central-Eastern Europe have to support deployment of new US nuclear weapons in Europe since it could be the only way to prevent a dangerous deterioration of the security landscape in the region.

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Why should the Visegrad Group support the Iranian Nuclear Deal?

Why should the Visegrad Group support the Iranian Nuclear Deal?

Author(s): Erzsébet N. Rózsa / Language(s): English

Keywords: Visegrad Group; The Islamic Republic of Iran; foreign policy and relations; nuclear weapons; security;

The Islamic Republic of Iran as a state format is a modernization experiment which bears all the formative identity elements of Iranianness, Shiite Islam and modernity in the European sense. Meanwhile, in its foreign policy and its relations to the world at large and to its region, the one and only aim is to ensure the survival of the system. In trying to achieve this aim, besides propagating its “universal” ideology (Iran is to be an Islamic Republic, and not a Shiite Islamic Republic) Iran tends to behave as an empire. The Iranian nuclear program is a derivative of both of these tendencies. The nuclear deal acknowledges Iran’s status and gradually terminates the sanctions against it, but cuts off the ways to an eventual nuclear weapon capability for Iran. The Visegrad countries should support the Iranian nuclear deal, as they have economic (diversification of energy resources and the opening of a 75 million market to which they so far have limited access) and security interests (migration of people from farther east to Europe as well as nuclear arms control and disarmament) related to the reintegration of Iran into the international system.

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Let's use more Czech public diplomacy in China!

Využijme více českou veřejnou diplomacii v Číně!

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Czech Republic; public diplomacy; China; bilateral relations; soft power; economic growth; NGOs;

ČLR je dlouhodobě strategickou destinací českých národních zájmů. České bilaterální vztahy s Čínou dosáhly momentálně historicky nejvyšší úrovně a jsou stále na vzestupu. Vedle bilaterální agendy s ČLR je Česká republika ještě přítomna v multilaterálních formátech strategického partnerství EU–ČLR a regionálního sdružení 16 postkomunistických států s Čínou 1+16. Přesto hlavní váha české politiky stále spočívá na bilaterální úrovni. Českou předností je silná soft power ve východní Asii. Využijme ji ještě více, posilněme veřejnou diplomacii zaměřenou na podporu dobrého jména ČR v Číně. Efektem bude rostoucí ekonomický úspěch České republiky v Číně a posílení kontaktů na nevládní a individuální úrovni.

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Lost Hopes: Where to Go after the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons?

Lost Hopes: Where to Go after the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT); UN; the building blocks; Czech Republic; Israel;

The 9th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was held from 27 April to 22 May 2015 at the UN Headquarters in New York, but it failed. The Czech Republic should engage in urging other countries to achieve progress in nuclear disarmament through a compromise approach known as “the building blocks”. In parallel, it should also actively support the process of emphasizing the humanitarian consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. Also, the Czech Republic’s good relations with Israel should focus on the support for holding a Middle East conference on the creation of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction, a project enjoying long-term EU support. It would also be desirable for the Czech Republic to continue with its strong support for the achievement of the NPT’s universality, the early entry of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty into force and the start of a substantive debate about the main points at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.

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Turmoil in Egypt: a Proxy Cold War among the Gulf States?

Turmoil in Egypt: a Proxy Cold War among the Gulf States?

Author(s): Máté Szalai / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arabian States; development of Arabian spring; Egyptian politics; cold war; Gulf agreement; Muslim Brotherhood;

The Arab states of the Persian Gulf have played a huge role in the unfolding developments of the Arab Spring, especially in Egypt. Based on many pieces of evidence, we can set up an analytical framework for investigating the transformations of Egyptian politics between 2011 and 2013, according to which the turmoil was basically a proxy cold war fought by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait on one hand, and Qatar on the other. Although the Gulf agreement signed in April 2014 clearly shows the inevitability of the defeat of Qatar, Doha will remain an important player in the region, while the rebound of the Muslim Brotherhood is now unimaginable without the support of the tiny country.

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Does China + 16 post-communist states work?

Funguje formát Čína + 16 postkomunistických států?

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: China; EU; economy; transport and logistics; Czech Republic; bilateral relations;

Zájem Číny o Evropu neustále sílí, soustřeďuje se zejména na velké státy jako Německo, Francie, Velká Británie. Souběžně s tím narůstá také relevance nových členských zemí EU z bývalého východního bloku. Význam Evropy pro Čínu je přednostně určen ekonomickými zájmy a návazností na dopravní a logistickou infrastrukturu, kterou chce Čína vybudovat napříč eurasijským kontinentem. Česká pozice ve formátu ČLR+16 je výhodnější než zůstat mimo něj, protože malé státy by v bilaterální agendě s Čínou byly marginalizovány. Formát 1+16 sám o sobě negeneruje očekávané ekonomické výsledky především v obchodě, přesto je možno nárůst investic z Číny zaznamenat.

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