Trgovinski odnosi Srbije i EU od 2000: komparativna analiza dinamike i strukturnih promena srpskog robnog izvoza u EU
THE SERBIA-EU TRADE RELATIONS SINCE 2000: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF SERBIAN MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO THE EU

Author(s): Goran Nikolić
Subject(s): Politics, Economy, National Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development, Socio-Economic Research, Transport / Logistics
Published by: Институт друштвених наука
Keywords: merchandise exports; technology; factor intensity; Serbia; European Union
Summary/Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis of a change in the factor intensity of Serbian exports to the EU, that is, whether there has been an increase in the export of the products which involve higher degrees of processing. From 2000 to 2008, the share of ‘Human (and physical) capital’ intensive products, the group that influences the overall quality of the export structure the most and involves products at a higher finalization level, did not change significantly. However, the quality of domestic exports to the EU dramatically improved in the years following the 2009 economic crisis, and already in 2014, the share of this group’ of products reached two fifths, where it roughly remained until 2018. When we compare the structure of Serbian’ export to the EU with the export structure of advanced countries such as The Czech Republic and the US, we can easily see that the share of “Human and physical capital” intensive products is significantly higher, which implies that Serbian export to the EU is based on primaryresource, i.e. labor-intensive and technologically low-intensive products. As expected, BiH and Turkey have results that are much more similar to those of Serbia. The shift in Serbia points to the effects of the export sector’s restructuring, the increased inflow of FDI through the arrival of multinational companies, and integration of domestic firms into global value chains (GVCs). In the 2005-18 period the share of inward processing trade increased from 1% to 7% of Serbia’s GDP, while the correlation between more FDI and a higher share of this type of trade indicates that Serbian exporters are more actively involved in GVCs. In addition to strong absolute growth in exports to the EU, more and more different products were also exported, as the vast majority of SMEs have reached a wide range of European markets, covering as many as 149 product groups.

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