Convergence Prospects of Bulgaria: Estimating the Timeline for Reaching Average EU Levels
Convergence Prospects of Bulgaria: Estimating the Timeline for Reaching Average EU Levels

Author(s): Vasil Spasov
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Economic policy, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: economic growth; convergence; purchasing power; regional development
Summary/Abstract: The present study aims to assess the time horizon required for Bulgaria to reach the average standard of living in the European Union (EU-27). It focuses on the indicator „Volume indices of real expenditure per capita“ (in PPS, EU-27 = 100) and uses Eurostat data for the period 2013–2024. Forecast scenarios for convergence are constructed using the methods of linear and exponential extrapolation. The results show that in 2024 Bulgaria records an index value of 66, which indicates a significant gap compared to the average level of the Union.

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