Научна конференция на тема Десетте риска пред България за следващите десет години : Сборник с доклади
Scientific Conference on the Topic The Ten Risks Facing Bulgaria in the Next Ten Years : Proceedings
Contributor(s): Zhulieta Vitova (Editor)
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Social Sciences, Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Governance, Sociology, Social development, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation, Economic development, Socio-Economic Research, Corruption - Transparency - Anti-Corruption
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: risk management; risk assessment; methodologies; ISO standards; COSO ICIF; ENISA; risk matrix; global risks; national risks; Bulgaria; strategic documents; demographic risk; corruption; political instability; cybersecurity; climate change
Summary/Abstract: The collection analyzes the ten most significant risks facing Bulgaria's development over the next decade. It presents the main international standards, methodologies, and methods for risk management, including ISO 31000, COSO ICIF, ENISA and other tools that enable systematic assessment based on probability and impact. The authors emphasize that the most suitable method at the national level is the Risk Matrix. The text reviews global, regional, and national risk trends identified by leading organizations such as the World Economic Forum, the Global Challenges Foundation, the IPCC, WHO, ENISA, and others. The major global risks include climate change, geopolitical conflicts, demographic imbalances, technological threats, and social polarization. The collection analyzes Bulgaria’s strategic documents and highlights issues such as inconsistency, lack of integration, and insufficient orientation toward real risk assessment. The media analysis shows that topics such as demographic decline, corruption, natural disasters, and political instability dominate Bulgarian media and shape public perception. The final assessment identifies key risks for the country: demographic crisis, institutional weakness and corruption, political instability, climate-related and natural hazards, cyber threats, energy and economic vulnerability, weaknesses in the education system, and workforce shortages. The collection emphasizes the need for a comprehensive, scientifically grounded, and well-coordinated national risk management policy to ensure Bulgaria’s sustainable development.
- E-ISBN-13: 978-619-232-953-2
- Page Count: 132
- Publication Year: 2025
- Language: Bulgarian
Стандарти, методики и методи за анализ и оценка на риска
Стандарти, методики и методи за анализ и оценка на риска
(Standards, Methodologies and Methods for Risk Analysis and Assessment)
- Author(s):Borislav Borisov, Yanko Hristozov
- Language:Bulgarian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Social Sciences, Economy, Business Economy / Management, Governance, Public Administration, Sociology, Methodology and research technology, Evaluation research
- Page Range:5-39
- No. of Pages:35
- Keywords:risk management standards; risk management methodologies; risk management methods
- Summary/Abstract:Risk management, as part of management science and as a practice of business organizations and state institutions, is also characterized by a specific methodology, understood as a set of standards, methodologies and methods for risk analysis, assessment and prevention. These organizations comply with specific norms and mandatory or recommended guidelines for risk management. The report examines the main standards, methodologies and methods for risk management. The aim is to determine those of them that are most suitable for the study of the specific risks that threaten the development of Bulgaria for the next ten years. The summary of the standards, methodologies and methods for risk management shows that in most of them it is recommended to assess risks depending on their degree of probability of occurrence and impact. The most appropriate method for assessing risks at the national level is the compilation of the Risk Matrix, recommended by the updated version of 2013 of the Integrated Internal Control Framework (ICIF) of the Committee of Sponsored Organizations (COSO), as well as by the European Cybersecurity Agency (ENISA). This technique is recommended for all public sector organizations and by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria.
Основни достижения в изследването на рисковете на глобално, регионално и национално ниво
Основни достижения в изследването на рисковете на глобално, регионално и национално ниво
(Main Achievements in Risks Research at Global, Regional and National Level)
- Author(s):Valentin Saykov
- Language:Bulgarian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, National Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, Business Economy / Management, Governance, Economic policy, Socio-Economic Research
- Page Range:40-67
- No. of Pages:28
- Keywords:global risks; national risks; World Economic Forum
- Summary/Abstract:Risk research is key to the timely identification of potential threats that may affect the activities of an organization, a country or even the entire world. It allows the development of effective strategies for prevention and minimization of negative consequences. Systematic analysis of risks ensures better decision-making and increased resilience in conditions of uncertainty. Risk research also supports the optimal allocation of resources for protection and management of critical situations. There are a number of prestigious global institutes and scientists that periodically study risks, make assessments and determine which are the largest of them. This report examines the activities of leading organizations that study global, regional and national risks. The aim is both to present the results of their research and to identify gaps that need to be filled in order to achieve a comprehensive picture of potential risks that may arise in the future. One such gap is the study of national risks that are characteristic of Bulgaria's development, although there are state institutions that study risks specific to their activities.
Рискове, идентифицирани в стратегическите документи за развитие на България. Контент анализ
Рискове, идентифицирани в стратегическите документи за развитие на България. Контент анализ
(Risks Identified in the Strategic Documents for the Development of Bulgaria. Content Analysis)
- Author(s):Borislav Borisov
- Language:Bulgarian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Economy, National Economy, Governance, Public Administration, Socio-Economic Research
- Page Range:68-95
- No. of Pages:28
- Keywords:risk; strategic documents; content analysis
- Summary/Abstract:In order to effectively manage the risks that arise in the face of the normal and unhindered development of an organization or country, they must first be recognized and secondly, adequate measures must be foreseen to counteract their negative impact. Identifying risks is a task of the analytical part of the developed strategic development planning documents (SDP), including strategies, plans and programs, and identifying countermeasures – of their strategic part. If the developed SDPs do not mention risks that subsequently occurred, or those that are obvious and widely commented on in society, this means that these documents are not sufficiently in-depth, are not professionally developed and cannot serve as guidelines for future development. This study analyzes the content (content analysis) of the Partnership Agreement (PA) (European Commission; Council of Ministers of the Republic of Bulgaria, 2022), the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) (Council of Ministers of the Republic of Bulgaria, 2022) and the National Development Program (NDP) “Bulgaria 2030" (Council of Ministers, 28), which are fundamental national strategic development documents. The aim is to establish which risks have been identified in the analytical parts of the strategic documents, which are the most frequently mentioned and which have been underestimated. When considering the implementation of these documents further, an answer should be given to how the responsible institutions have counteracted the identified risks.
Основни рискове, коментирани в българските медии през 2024 и 2025 година
Основни рискове, коментирани в българските медии през 2024 и 2025 година
(Main Risks Commented on in the Bulgarian Media in 2024 and 2025)
- Author(s):Borislav Borisov
- Language:Bulgarian
- Subject(s):Social Sciences, Economy, Media studies, National Economy, Communication studies, Socio-Economic Research
- Page Range:96-118
- No. of Pages:23
- Keywords:Bulgaria; media visibility; risk analysis; Media Visibility Index (MVI); corruption; political instability, communication studies; journalism; public policy
- Summary/Abstract:This study examines the extent and nature of media visibility of the principal risks affecting Bulgaria’s socio-economic development. Using the Media Visibility Index (MVI) as an analytical tool, the research evaluates how frequently and with what intensity risk-related topics are covered in national and regional media. Data from 2024 – 2025 were analyzed through both quantitative and qualitative approaches, supported by AI-assisted processing using ChatGPT-5. The findings indicate that while the Bulgarian media reflect most of the significant risks—such as cybersecurity threats, corruption, inflation, and political instability—the coverage remains largely descriptive rather than analytical. Furthermore, topics like innovation, infrastructure ageing, and environmental resilience are underrepresented. The study highlights the necessity of improving media independence, enhancing analytical journalism, and promoting media literacy as key factors in strengthening the democratic capacity of the public sphere.
Оценка на десетте най-важни риска пред развитието на България
Оценка на десетте най-важни риска пред развитието на България
(Assessment of the Ten Most Important Risks to the Development of Bulgaria)
- Author(s):Yanko Hristozov, Borislav Borisov
- Language:Bulgarian
- Subject(s):Social Sciences, Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Sociology, Evaluation research, Social development, Economic development, Socio-Economic Research
- Page Range:119-130
- No. of Pages:12
- Keywords:risk management standards; risk management methodologies; risk assessment; national risks; strategic development
- Summary/Abstract:Risk management is an integral part of development planning processes. For several years now, Zurich Insurance Group and Marsh McLennan have been publishing a Global Risks Report, which identifies the ten global risks facing the world for the next ten years. Along with global risks valid for the entire world, national risks, i.e. those that are specific to a given country, are also of great importance. For those in power, they are of the greatest importance, since they fall within the scope of their management impacts. In Bulgaria, a law was adopted in 2006 that obliges public sector organizations to manage the risks specific to them by developing risk management strategies, assessing inherent risks and planning anti-risk activities. Unfortunately, the identification of the main risks facing the state as a whole and their assessment is not regulated in the legislation, which is why there are no countries legally committed to managing risk at the national level. However, such opportunities exist in conducting focused scientific research on risks carried out by scientific organizations. The set of the study is precisely to identify and assess the specific risks to the development of Bulgaria for the next 10 years. It is based on scientific methodology, including expert assessments, Risk Assessment Matrix, statistical methods. The result of the study is classified for the inherent global risks to the development of Bulgaria for a ten-year period depending on the probability of its occurrence and the strength of the impact on it in achieving the goals set in the strategic development documents. Following the legislation, the adoption of legislative and management measures by the responsible state authorities to counteract the same strategic risks for the country.
