U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji
Towards regional depopulation in Serbia

Author(s): Vladimir Nikitović
Subject(s): Sociology, Demography and human biology
Published by: Институт друштвених наука
Keywords: Serbia; Population; demographic surveys; population projection
Summary/Abstract: If we are interested in what the demographic future of a country would look like if the observed trends of the components of population dynamics (births, deaths and migration) continue or, on the other hand, change in accordance with the desired and/or hypothetical target values, we usually rely on population projections produced by renowned statistical agencies and national statistical institutes. Another role of such projections is international comparisons. Projected demographic indicators at the national level can represent, first of all, basic guidelines when creating national development strategies, i.e. for a general insight into the future movement of important population groups, but for all types of social development planning, population projections that start from specific communities, i.e. from the lower levels of the territorial organization of the state. Namely, during the demographic "summing up" of the population to the spatial level such as the national one, numerous differences in demographic characteristics are lost - mutually canceled - which, despite the progress of the general process of demographic homogenization, are still very pronounced at the level of settlements, municipalities/cities, but also areas and regions. Neglecting such sources of heterogeneity can greatly adversely affect the understanding of the essence of demographic processes, and consequently all social actions that are carried out in order to guide the development of the population. This is especially important when it comes to the impact of migration on regional and subregional differentiation of demographic development in conditions of long-term low birth rates - which is the case with the population of Serbia.

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