Prognozowanie transportu towarowego
Forecasting of transport of goods

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the article is to work out a short-term forecast on freight in Poland. The forecast process was conducted on the basis of monthly data and comprises the period from July 2001 to July 2010. The forecast concerns the fourth quarter 2010 and the first quarter 2011. In the researched series there were separated and identified the following elements: trends, seasonal and accidentals fluctuations. Exponential smoothing and ARIMA methods were used to forecast the freight. Forecast measures were also calculated to assess which results can be the most likely. The prediction results were compared with the actual CSO data for the fourth quarter 2010.

• Details
• Contents